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Team Fortress 2: Mann vs. Machine

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kokirion

Just like you. But cooler
Joined
Jul 30, 2010
Location
Wherever history is in the making
LOOOOONG POST

I amended my town/scum list a bit, based on my own analyses and those of others that were just presented.

I put everyone in order of how likely I think it is they are town.
I deliberately called the last heading "possibly scum?" instead of scum, because I do not suspect all of them. Rather, this is the pile of people I think most of the mafia members are part of. Nonetheless, even if they would all be in that list the chances of them being scum is 50/50. And to be frank, I even estimate the chances of the person at the bottem being scum as no more than flipping a coin.
_________________________________________________________________________
I have 2 theories.
They are both based on the (attempted) kills the mafia carried out so far. The first target was Sadia. Sadia is a special target. She was at that point not a threat, and in my opinion she is a very underrated player. I know that several other more ancient players share my opinion on that, and therefore I think it is unlikely that we have a team with only new players. Sadia's kill was pushed by an "experienced" mafia member.
Kokirion was also a strange target during the second night. It would've made more sense on day 1, because I played a bigger role for the town there. During day 2, I was often attacked and lost a lot of trust. Killing me then would make little sense because I could've been a possible lynch for today. Anyone who would still target me, say for example to frame Pendio, is playing a thought out game. In that sense this is somewhat in line with Sadia's death. The mafia is probably led by a player who knows his/her stuff.
That is also my first theory. There is one mafia member who has orchestrated this. This is someone with a history with Sadia. I suspect that this player is one of the following:
- Ver-Go-a-Go-Go
- Tristan
- ALIT
- Mido
Possibly Viral Maze should also be a part of this list, but I simply do not know if he had a connection with Sadia.
The player out of this list has a relatively dominant personality as to be able to take the lead. Mido is very social, but also quite mediating by nature. That's also why I put him on the bottom, I think he's the least likely of them to fit that description. ALIT is the second least likely, because his connection with Sadia is weaker and he's never ultra engaged from my experienced. Tristan and Vergo fit the description better.
The other 3 members are filled up by (former) inactives. Probably from the list of:
- Zelda15
- Doc
- Night Owl
- Crusader
- Jamie

My second theory is that we don't have one "leading" mafia member, but rather have a group of multiple like-minded players. In that case, I bet multiple people from the vergo, tristan, alit, mido group are scum. Possibly joined by 1 inactive, or someone like Toxic.

We'll probably see soon enough which theory is right. The chances of lynching scum and the vig hitting scum are rather high right now. Sooner or later we'll get a lead.
_________________________________________________________________________
Town
Malon
counter-claimed doctor, certainly town

Soul

Soul is so incredibly active and has played so aggressive. Normally, new players who are mafia play a bit more safe. Besides, if he had any important role or so, playing as active as he did could've easily attracted a cop for example. I don't think it is impossible that he's scum, but highly unlikely.

Frozen Chosen
With all the current knowledge we have about the VT's etc., I think it's unlikely that FC has been scum all along.

HeroOfTime

In my opinion a classic example of a new town player. He plays riskier than if he would be scum. He makes mistakes, yes, but that is because he is genuinely trying to help. Whether you agree with his arguments or not is irrelevant there.

leaning town
Mido
You've not been suuper active, but still have contributed nicely. What mostly made me decide to put you on my town list is due to some things you said (which most people didn't even notice) which don't seem scummy to me. An example of this is how you briefly mentioned after Sadia's death that the connection to me would also be a bit too convenient, as if the mafia killed Sadia to frame me. I don't think that's likely, but saying that whereas it was never a topic does not seem to me as a scum action. I mean, if you are scum, wouldn't it at the very least be beneficial to you that the town thinks there's a link with me there? And you didn't do it for show either because it wasn't ever noticed and you didn't restate it. BUT, you did go down a category on my list. You do are possibly still the/a mastermind behind Sadia's death. If the others I mentioned above are town, you might be scum instead.

Tristan

I felt that you played really genuine on day 1. Your emotions when Storm acted rashly did not seem to me as if you took any caution. If you are mafia I would think you'd be more cautious there. However, I think you contributed poorly on both day 1 and day 2, in the way I would expect you to if you are scum. And you are also one of the few people having a possible link to Sadia. I am currently re-analysing you. For the moment I'm putting you on my town list, but you've steadily lowered on my list.

Neutral
Viral Maze
I don't know you well enough to judge. You are relatively careful with words. I like your analysing skills, you make intelligent comments. At the other hand, I also think your actual scum hunting contribution is not incredibly high. You have not really stirred up the game so far. But I do not know whether that is because you are doing that on purpose (if you're playing the trustworthy towny while in reality being the puppet master) or whether it is your nature to narrow everything down in your mind before taking action. I cannot yet give an answer to this question, so I'm listing you as neutral. We'll see. At first I thought you might be third party, but I've concluded already that we probably don't have third party in the set-up.

possibly scum?
Toxic Snowman
I thought you were town at first, and to be honest still feel alright about you. But could you be scum playing a similar game as I theorised Viral "might" be playing? Yes. I could imagine you are scum. But you're the least likely in my opinion, so I'm not advocating to lynch you.

A Link in Time

You have all the reasons to be scum. You are old enough of a player to have made the kills the mafia did, although not the first I would expect. Your balance between activity and inactivity is high enough to often stay under the radar, a spot that is often used by scum. But there are a bunch of people I suspect more than I suspect you.

Jamie

As I stated in my first theory, I think it's not unlikely that a bunch of formerly inactives are in cahoots with the leading mafia member. You replaced Dan, who was a great example of that, hence you are on my list.

Zelda15

You're pretty much inactive since the beginning of the game. I remember that you were mafia in Lucid dream mafia, and back then you were really afraid to post to make mistakes. You have played a few more games since, but your playstyle seems similar. If a few inactives are mafia, you might be one.

[email protected]

Same as for Jamie

Doc

Pretty much the same as for Jamie.

Night Owl

The same as for Jamie. In addition, as I pointed out in one of last posts, you behaviour so far really fitted someone who is scum. "Intelligent" remarks about the game set-up etc., avoiding direct confrontations. If some inactives are scum, I think you have the highest chance of being one of them.

Ver-Go-a-Go-Go

Vergo... your relation to Sadia, and your capacity to dominate the mafia team if you'd be a member is why you are this position of my list. No matter how much I analyse the list of people, I can't find people that would fit the description more. BUT, I also pointed out earlier that I thought your post against me just before nightfall would be somewhat strange if you were the one planning to kill me. Therefore, I'm a bit less sure about you. At most, you being scum or not is probably flipping a coin.

_________________________________________________________________________
But, flipping a coin is better than the chances of a random lynch. I would be willing to lynch Vergo or Night Owl today. Night owl is the best example of one of those possibly "inactive" members, and Vergo fits the description best as the mafia player who has been responsible for their strategy so far. Even if they're both town, this already gives us much info, because it highly limits the other possible scum members if they flip town.

Out of these 2, I prefer lynching Night Owl. If Vergo is town, right now he's more valuable. He's the one I suspect the most, but I'm willing to watch him a little longer.

Vote: Night Owl
 
Joined
Nov 17, 2014
Zelda15
You're pretty much inactive since the beginning of the game. I remember that you were mafia in Lucid dream mafia, and back then you were really afraid to post to make mistakes. You have played a few more games since, but your playstyle seems similar. If a few inactives are mafia, you might be one


Dave, Dreamer

Welcome, Zelda13!
No one really knows a lot about you, aside from that you like to wear tux. Oh, and Gumball has a crush on you, but that’s kind of irrelevant. Sucks for you that I heard about ya, now you’re here in this nightmare! :”)

metatuxedo.gif


ABILITIES
You are a dreamer. Once you become lucid you will be able to develop powers that can aid you throughout the game.

WIN CONDITION
You win when all evil has been destroyed
If you have any questions, just ask!
 
Joined
Nov 17, 2014
Ooops, accidentally hit post. I meant to say that this was the PM Kokiron sent me for the Lucid Dream Mafia.
 

Jamie

Till the roof comes off, till the lights go out...
Joined
Feb 23, 2014
Gender
trans-pan-demi-ethno-christian-math-autis-genderfluid-cheesecake
@Soul I play a very aggressive game, which is how I (imo) became one of the top players on the forum. I know I sound ****y, I'm just explaining to you, I'm confident in my game, and that's how I play. I think you're scum, I vote. I'm not a cautious player. Don't take it to heart.
damn how cocky was this post lol i was a bit tipsy when i wrote this, sober for my other ones though and [email protected] being censored
 
I'm also in finals week, and I want to make sure my mind is focused before Physics on Thursday and Chemistry on Friday, but I'll do my best to post at least one more time before the game day ends.

@Toxic_Snowman what are your thoughts on the current situation? We haven't heard from you since close to the beginning of the game day.

@DekuNut I'd like an updated vote count please.
 

DekuNut

I play my drum for you
Joined
Jan 30, 2011
Location
Tangent Universe
VOTE COUNT
Viral Maze(1): HeroOfTime
Soul (1): Jamie
Night Owl (1): Kokirion
Not Voting (13): Soul, A Link in Time, Tristan, Viral Maze, Mido, Frozen Chosen, [email protected] , Night Owl, Malon, Ver-go-a-go-go, Toxic_Snowman, Zelda15, Doc


YET TO MEET POST REQUIREMENT
Frozen Chosen (2), Toxic_Snowman (1)
Day 2 will end on Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 7pm PST. 3 posts are required this game day, or else you will be replaced or mod killed.
With 16 players alive, it takes 9 for majority
 
Last edited:
Joined
Dec 14, 2008
Location
Louisiana, USA
I have 2 theories.
They are both based on the (attempted) kills the mafia carried out so far. The first target was Sadia. Sadia is a special target. She was at that point not a threat, and in my opinion she is a very underrated player. I know that several other more ancient players share my opinion on that, and therefore I think it is unlikely that we have a team with only new players. Sadia's kill was pushed by an "experienced" mafia member.
Kokirion was also a strange target during the second night. It would've made more sense on day 1, because I played a bigger role for the town there. During day 2, I was often attacked and lost a lot of trust. Killing me then would make little sense because I could've been a possible lynch for today. Anyone who would still target me, say for example to frame Pendio, is playing a thought out game. In that sense this is somewhat in line with Sadia's death. The mafia is probably led by a player who knows his/her stuff.
That is also my first theory. There is one mafia member who has orchestrated this. This is someone with a history with Sadia. I suspect that this player is one of the following:
- Ver-Go-a-Go-Go
- Tristan
- ALIT
- Mido
Possibly Viral Maze should also be a part of this list, but I simply do not know if he had a connection with Sadia.
The player out of this list has a relatively dominant personality as to be able to take the lead. Mido is very social, but also quite mediating by nature. That's also why I put him on the bottom, I think he's the least likely of them to fit that description. ALIT is the second least likely, because his connection with Sadia is weaker and he's never ultra engaged from my experienced. Tristan and Vergo fit the description better.
The other 3 members are filled up by (former) inactives. Probably from the list of:
- Zelda15
- Doc
- Night Owl
- Crusader
- Jamie

I agree that there's at least one mafia member that's more familiar with the player base that we have here. I still don't fully believe your soft-claim (as I said in my last post, who could possibly counter-claim when there's no way to know if we were targeted by the mafia during the night? This could be a gamble that there's no real communter in the game and you're seeing if you can pull off the fake-claim, which I've definitely seen you do before), but let's assume for the purposes of this analysis that it's true and you really are town.

Sadia dying night one is something that may prove more critical than anyone would think. To start off day 2 I brought up how I looked over some games again and saw that Sadia, while not participating in a terrible amount of them, still was an incredibly competent player who could be very annoying on the town for mafia. I feel like anyone who isn't familiar with this history would have glossed over her as a night one target - she wasn't terribly active and didn't seem to be contributing very much from the get-go. Someone knew how dangerous she could possibly become and took care of it early (Coincidentally I feel like the two of us are the prime suspects for that move - you've claimed and I haven't, of course, so I understand why you're taking this mindset and applying it to me. I did the exact same with you.)

The counter theory to this argument is that another common mafia target during the early stages are the more quiet townies that aren't likely to draw power-role protection. Although it's fully possible that Sadia was just a victim of this mindset, I have to ask why her specifically? We have other players that have fit the exact same mold quite well, such as Zelda15 and Toxic_Snowman. This leads me to believe that Sadia wasn't just a more random night one nightkill, but one that was planned rather well from the start.

As for your list, I'll go down them besides myself, of course (cause I know I'm town, and a rather boring one at that):

Mido is very much in his current mafia meta right now. My first game with the guy was when he was our Godfather in Majora's Mask mafia (I CANNOT believe that was like three years ago.... time passes quickly), and the guy plays a very quiet game. He made it to the very last moment in MM mafia, something I attribute to him being forced into the shadows due to us falling behind early (Tristan was killed early, JuiceJ was an idiot and got lynched, Jaime had a spat with JC and was replaced fairly early, etc.). The only thing is that this is how he often plays regardless of the situation, much like myself in a way. The difference is that he's been fairly neutral this game which is more reminiscent of his mafia performances.

I can see ALIT being mafia as well. Glancing over his "leaning scum" list, I find myself disagreeing with it to quite a large extent. I feel like Hero is a textbook newbie with not much hiding under the depths. I don't think I've ever played with Zelda15, but I'm getting the same vibes; I don't think there's a terribly high chance that they're mafia. That just leaves Toxic and Tristan from his list. I've already posted my thoughts on Tristan and how I remain wary, so I agree with that one. I just don't know what to think of Toxic because he's so quiet, but not in the more newbie manner that I sense from Zelda15. That means I agree with a total of one of his "leaning scum" list, am indifferent to one, and disagree with the other three (because again, I'm just a boring townie). They seem to be easy picks and targets, perhaps covering up more established players that could be scum.

The thing about ALIT though is that he always seems to be more of a commentator than a prospector when it comes to mafia. He'll post these character analysis' when called to do so, but never seems terribly proactive. It's difficult to judge anything from that.

I've already said what I wanted to say about Tristan.

Ver-Go-a-Go-Go
Vergo... your relation to Sadia, and your capacity to dominate the mafia team if you'd be a member is why you are this position of my list. No matter how much I analyse the list of people, I can't find people that would fit the description more. BUT, I also pointed out earlier that I thought your post against me just before nightfall would be somewhat strange if you were the one planning to kill me. Therefore, I'm a bit less sure about you. At most, you being scum or not is probably flipping a coin.

We don't trust each other, and rightfully so. Although I will say your not voting for me today eases up my suspicions that your claim is fake after the way you aggressively pursued Pendio a while back; I think if you were mafia you'd go after me full-force seeing as others such as ALIT are beginning to warm up to the idea as well (I'm getting vibes from Viral that he's the same way).


But, flipping a coin is better than the chances of a random lynch. I would be willing to lynch Vergo or Night Owl today. Night owl is the best example of one of those possibly "inactive" members, and Vergo fits the description best as the mafia player who has been responsible for their strategy so far. Even if they're both town, this already gives us much info, because it highly limits the other possible scum members if they flip town.

Out of these 2, I prefer lynching Night Owl. If Vergo is town, right now he's more valuable. He's the one I suspect the most, but I'm willing to watch him a little longer.

Vote: Night Owl

I'm always slightly unsettled by the inactives in a game. The reason Mods vs Members was almost such a mafia blood-bath was because Atticus and Big Octo contributed almost literally nothing to the entire game and made it to lylo before the epic town comeback (Thareous and GDL played a very good mafia game). That experience has made me incredibly wary of such players that I know to be intelligent, and yet only post when absolutely necessary. Night Owl seems to fit the description.
 
Joined
Aug 12, 2015
I agree that there's at least one mafia member that's more familiar with the player base that we have here. I still don't fully believe your soft-claim (as I said in my last post, who could possibly counter-claim when there's no way to know if we were targeted by the mafia during the night? This could be a gamble that there's no real communter in the game and you're seeing if you can pull off the fake-claim, which I've definitely seen you do before), but let's assume for the purposes of this analysis that it's true and you really are town.

I thought the same, but how do you explain the night scene then? I don't think it was a doctor, because the way the scene is written just doesn't work with one, and Deku seems to take great care in writing his scenes properly. If you're entertaining the possibility of there not being a Commuter in the game, how do you explain that night scene? Is there a different role you've got in mind that could result in flavour text like that?
 

Mellow Ezlo

Spoony Bard
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Slothkin
I thought the same, but how do you explain the night scene then? I don't think it was a doctor, because the way the scene is written just doesn't work with one, and Deku seems to take great care in writing his scenes properly. If you're entertaining the possibility of there not being a Commuter in the game, how do you explain that night scene? Is there a different role you've got in mind that could result in flavour text like that?
 
Joined
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@Tristan did you quote my post simply to say you agree with me, or did you accidentally hit the Post button too early? :P
 

Mellow Ezlo

Spoony Bard
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Oops forgot my message lol. I was gonna say Hider is another possibility, or bulletproof. I have reason to believe it's not the latter though and the former is somewhat rare (I've never actually personally seen it in a game).
 

Night Owl

~Momentai
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Skybound Coil Tree, Noctilum
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Owl
LOOOOONG POST
Night Owl
The same as for Jamie. In addition, as I pointed out in one of last posts, you behaviour so far really fitted someone who is scum. "Intelligent" remarks about the game set-up etc., avoiding direct confrontations. If some inactives are scum, I think you have the highest chance of being one of them.

Out of these 2, I prefer lynching Night Owl. If Vergo is town, right now he's more valuable. He's the one I suspect the most, but I'm willing to watch him a little longer.

Vote: Night Owl
Thinking and trying to put pieces together is about all I can do. Unfortunately my real life tendency to watch and think causes me to fall on the more inactive side of things. I admit that I have a tendency to just agree with other's analysis of people, but that's only because I've never been the best at reading and catching the red flags others do.
I'm still relatively new, with this being my 3rd or 4th online mafia game ever, with my other games all getting cancelled without conclusion due to Mod inactivity ( DW mafia run by David, my first game) and/ or player inactivity (SS:cool:. So I have yet to really develop a well known play style. Not that any of this is a valid excuse mind you.

If lynching me is the way you want to go, then at the very least my death will lend credibility to your claim.
It would also reveal why I put commuter in my list of possible power roles, and why I'm quick to believe your claim without questioning the commuter part. I'd claim harder, but I think you used the role claim for today.
 
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