Team Fortress 2: Mann vs. Machine

[Jamie]

Think of it this way:
Let's say there's 16 townies and 4 mafia. If we lynch someone on Day One, the chance of hitting scum is 20%. If the lynchee turns out to be town, that'll leave 14 townies and 4 mafia alive on Day Two. The chance of hitting scum is now 22%. If we mislynch again, there will be 12 townies and 4 mafia alive on Day Three. The chances are now 25%.

If we don't lynch anyone on Day One, there will be 15 townies and 4 mafia alive on Day Two, making the odds of hitting scum only 21%. Mislynch on Day Two, and on Day Three you'll have a 23% chance.

See where I'm going with this? Lynching someone on Day One, even if they flip town, actually increases our odds of finding scum. The difference may seem marginal at first, but keep in mind this is a large game with 20 players.

There's also the fact that by not lynching anyone today, there's one less mislynch before we lose. Right now we've got an even number of players, which is statistically advantegous.

Holy scum, Batman. This post literally screams "lynch me, I'm scum". Never trust anyone who uses these arbitrary stats as a reason to lynch an innocent. Please tell me someone else is with me on this. I agree that lynching someone on day 1 is better than no-lynch but I'm sorry, justifying it with "oh we have a higher percentage of killing scum the more townies we kill" is ridiculous, especially since you also start talking about mislynching on days 2 and 3.

No surprise Soul was the 3rd person on the Johnny wagon and was also present on the Storm one.

Vote: Soul

y u scum?

 

[A Link In Time]

Soul seems more town than scum to me, but I can see how he could be scum trying to latch onto a new player for supporting a no lynch, especially since someone else, Viral, had already made the point. It seems like a rather safe move to make. I don't think Soul bringing up the statistics was necessarily wrong, but I can see your argument, Jamie, for him wanting to get rid of townies on later days where there will likely be even more information available to narrow down the scum pool.

Also, since @Soul was brought up, how do you feel about all of the remaining players? You mentioned a few before, but I'm curious if you plan on posting the list you said you were compiling before.

 

[Soul]

Holy scum, Batman. This post literally screams "lynch me, I'm scum". Never trust anyone who uses these arbitrary stats as a reason to lynch an innocent. Please tell me someone else is with me on this. I agree that lynching someone on day 1 is better than no-lynch but I'm sorry, justifying it with "oh we have a higher percentage of killing scum the more townies we kill" is ridiculous, especially since you also start talking about mislynching on days 2 and 3.

No surprise Soul was the 3rd person on the Johnny wagon and was also present on the Storm one.

Vote: Soul

y u scum?

Wow, I did not see that one coming. Your argument is ridiculous though. What I stated is strictly logical (do the math yourself), especially the part about us having one less possible mislynch before the mafia wins. How does pointing this out make me scum exactly?

I've explained at lengths before why I jumped on the Johnny wagon, and I wasn't really doing much concerning Storm. I'd have to check, but I'm pretty sure I unvoted in the end.

Is this the only thing I did that picked your interest, or is there something else?

Soul seems more town than scum to me, but I can see how he could be scum trying to latch onto a new player for supporting a no lynch, especially since someone else, Viral, had already made the point. It seems like a rather safe move to make. I don't think Soul bringing up the statistics was necessarily wrong, but I can see your argument, Jamie, for him wanting to get rid of townies on later days where there will likely be even more information available to narrow down the scum pool.

Also, since @Soul was brought up, how do you feel about all of the remaining players? You mentioned a few before, but I'm curious if you plan on posting the list you said you were compiling before.

I know I said that, but I've refrained from doing it both because I've had less time in the last few days than I thought I'd have, and also because I'd rather not play with completely open cards. Are there any specific players you'd like to know about?

Right now I don't have any strong suspicions. Jamie's play baffles me to be honest, and it's certainly reminiscent of the last game, where he was scum and also got me lynched. He's both too smart and to new to this game, being a replacement and all, to make this kind of bluff, so I believe he is genuine in his suspicion of me, even if I don't understand where's he coming from.

Out of the living players, my biggest suspicion was kokirion, but I'm willing to believe his softclaim since, as Night Owl explained, there really isn't any conceivable situation in which a scum player would make a play like this. The night scene proves something happened to the player the mafia targeted, and if said target wasn't him, the real target would have counter claimed by now.

Those two are the players I have something to say about at the moment. If there's anyone else you'd like to know my thoughts about, feel free to ask.

 

[Mipha]

I'm almost done catching up, then i'll post.

 

[Jamie]

Wow, I did not see that one coming. Your argument is ridiculous though. What I stated is strictly logical (do the math yourself), especially the part about us having one less possible mislynch before the mafia wins. How does pointing this out make me scum exactly?

I've explained at lengths before why I jumped on the Johnny wagon, and I wasn't really doing much concerning Storm. I'd have to check, but I'm pretty sure I unvoted in the end.

Is this the only thing I did that picked your interest, or is there something else?

You essentially said "mislynching a townie is fine because it increases our chances of lynching scum", what poor logic. You know what increases our chances even higher? Not mislynching a townie, and lynching scum instead. You're saying it's okay to mislynch because it slightly increases the probability of lynching scum, when really, it's never a good thing to mislynch town, especially since you mentioned mislynching on day 2 and 3. Sounds like you're trying to make yourself clear of mislynching townies whenever. Sorry, super scummy. Maybe it's newb play, seems like scum play to me.

 

[Soul]

You essentially said "mislynching a townie is fine because it increases our chances of lynching scum", what poor logic. You know what increases our chances even higher? Not mislynching a townie, and lynching scum instead. You're saying it's okay to mislynch because it slightly increases the probability of lynching scum, when really, it's never a good thing to mislynch town, especially since you mentioned mislynching on day 2 and 3. Sounds like you're trying to make yourself clear of mislynching townies whenever. Sorry, super scummy. Maybe it's newb play, seems like scum play to me.

Well, duh, of course lynching scum is better than lynching a townie. Do you think I'm an idiot? All I said is that lynching someone on Day One, which gives us a chance to hit scum, is better than not lynching someone on Day One, especially because even if we hit a townie, the chance of hitting scum the next day is increasing - this is a mathematical fact, and not even a very complicated one. The Day 2 and 3 thing was simply an example, and nothing else. I wrote that post to explain to Toxic_Snowman why a No Lynch on Day One is a bad idea, and that's all there is to it.

I honestly don't know where your hate boner for me is coming from, but if this is all you've got, I don't see much reason to argue with you about it any further, especially since I'm on quite a few players' town list, so my lynch is unlikely at this point. Feel free to question me if you've got any other proof of my scumminess. I've said all I can about this matter.

 

[Soul]

That "especially" in the post above should be an "additionally".

 

[Jamie]

Well, duh, of course lynching scum is better than lynching a townie. Do you think I'm an idiot? All I said is that lynching someone on Day One, which gives us a chance to hit scum, is better than not lynching someone on Day One, especially because even if we hit a townie, the chance of hitting scum the next day is increasing - this is a mathematical fact, and not even a very complicated one. The Day 2 and 3 thing was simply an example, and nothing else. I wrote that post to explain to Toxic_Snowman why a No Lynch on Day One is a bad idea, and that's all there is to it.

I honestly don't know where your hate boner for me is coming from, but if this is all you've got, I don't see much reason to argue with you about it any further, especially since I'm on quite a few players' town list, so my lynch is unlikely at this point. Feel free to question me if you've got any other proof of my scumminess. I've said all I can about this matter.

Yeah, you're defending lynching a townie with the statistic that lynching mafia later on is easier, and said oh we mislynch on day 2 and 3 thats okay because its easier to lynch scum. That's the poorest reason I've ever heard--wouldn't it be better to not lynch the townie to begin with? Certainly we wouldn't lynch townie on day 1 if we were 100% sure it was a townie...

I'm aware it's a mathematical fact, I'm saying it's an extremely poor defense that allows you to mislynch townies for several days in a row (as you did on day 2), and say "well, it boosts our chances of lynching scum!"

"Hate boner"? I'm playing the game. If you won't defend yourself from me anymore because you're on some town lists, so be it, but "if this is all you've got", last time someone said this to me, I was right, and lynched scum.

Again, either your post is that of scum, or that of a newb, or both. Either way, scummy ass post, I'll bet my right nutsack that you're scum with how you're responding to my posts so aggressively, too. Like you said, literally one vote on you, so no need to be so rude in your response.

 

[Soul]

Yeah, you're defending lynching a townie with the statistic that lynching mafia later on is easier, and said oh we mislynch on day 2 and 3 thats okay because its easier to lynch scum. That's the poorest reason I've ever heard--wouldn't it be better to not lynch the townie to begin with? Certainly we wouldn't lynch townie on day 1 if we were 100% sure it was a townie...

Were we 100% sure it was a townie?

I'm aware it's a mathematical fact, I'm saying it's an extremely poor defense that allows you to mislynch townies for several days in a row (as you did on day 2), and say "well, it boosts our chances of lynching scum!"

Look, the mislynches on days two and three were examples of how the game is likely to go. I never even used that statistic as reasoning for lynching after Day One.

"Hate boner"? I'm playing the game. If you won't defend yourself from me anymore because you're on some town lists, so be it, but "if this is all you've got", last time someone said this to me, I was right, and lynched scum.

Again, either your post is that of scum, or that of a newb, or both. Either way, scummy ass post, I'll bet my right nutsack that you're scum with how you're responding to my posts so aggressively, too. Like you said, literally one vote on you, so no need to be so rude in your response.

Sorry if I came over rude. I'm just taken aback by your accusations, which to me come totally out of nowhere and just aren't agreeable to me.

 

[Jamie]

@Soul I play a very aggressive game, which is how I (imo) became one of the top players on the forum. I know I sound cocky, I'm just explaining to you, I'm confident in my game, and that's how I play. I think you're scum, I vote. I'm not a cautious player. Don't take it to heart.

 

[Soul]

@Soul I play a very aggressive game, which is how I (imo) became one of the top players on the forum. I know I sound ****y, I'm just explaining to you, I'm confident in my game, and that's how I play. I think you're scum, I vote. I'm not a cautious player. Don't take it to heart.

It's okay, sorry if I overreacted. Thanks for clarifying though!

 

[Mido]

I want to explain my sudden vote against Johnny, which I realize looks scummy. As I said, I was very inactive for most of day 2. Most of what I could say against Johnny had already been mentioned, all the questions had already been asked. At the time, I fully believed that Fro Cho or he were mafia, and I trusted Fro Cho much more than Johnny. The day was ending, so I didn't have much opportunity to continue analyzing the situation and voted.

I'll try to post my suspicions on other players in an hour; Game of Thrones is coming on

I see what you mean, although I still remain wary. Anyhow, I hope Game of Thrones was good....I have a ton of catching up to do if I'm to jump back in.

@Mido what do you think of Hero of Time? You slipped by in Revival, so I'd like to get a feel for you again, brother.

I don't have the best read on him, but from what I've gathered, I never thought much as a whole with the exception that he has been rather proactive for a newer player, much like Soul. However, I noticed he made two puzzling moves, both of which have been highlighted to varying degrees by others. First, there was his desire for evidence to back up the claims from the first day, which seemed like an attempt to gather role information, useful for anti-town factions; and although this move intrigued me, I don't necessarily think the move deemed him scum. The second move was his recent, although he's voiced the idea before his vote, vote on you. I mainly found this eye-catching not because it seemed particularly scummy, but it reminds me heavily of how I pursued you in Pirates 1, with results we don't like to talk about these days. After all's said and done about him, Hero of Time leans town for me slightly, and I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

I'm still inclined to look into Doc and Night Owl at this time, with the latter being a more major concern in my view.

 

[kokirion]

I don't have the best read on him, but from what I've gathered, I never thought much as a whole with the exception that he has been rather proactive for a newer player, much like Soul. However, I noticed he made two puzzling moves, both of which have been highlighted to varying degrees by others. First, there was his desire for evidence to back up the claims from the first day, which seemed like an attempt to gather role information, useful for anti-town factions; and although this move intrigued me, I don't necessarily think the move deemed him scum. The second move was his recent, although he's voiced the idea before his vote, vote on you. I mainly found this eye-catching not because it seemed particularly scummy, but it reminds me heavily of how I pursued you in Pirates 1, with results we don't like to talk about these days. After all's said and done about him, Hero of Time leans town for me slightly, and I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

I'm still inclined to look into Doc and Night Owl at this time, with the latter being a more major concern in my view.

I think HOT is town. He's new and dares to take risks, e.g. the 2 moves you refer to. From my experience, new players that suddenly obtain a scummy role become paranoid and think everyone is on to them, and therefore limit any kind of their actions as to not make a mistake. His earlier inactivity was in line with a new player that stays on the background because of being afraid of making mistakes, but when I saw those 2 actions of him, I got convinced that he is most likely town.

 

[Viral Maze]

I'm going to post about Soul and Jamie when I get home from work and have time to reread some of Day 1 to formulate a better opinion, but I'll address this post:

I don't have the best read on him, but from what I've gathered, I never thought much as a whole with the exception that he has been rather proactive for a newer player, much like Soul. [...] I mainly found this eye-catching not because it seemed particularly scummy, but it reminds me heavily of how I pursued you in Pirates 1, with results we don't like to talk about these days. After all's said and done about him, Hero of Time leans town for me slightly, and I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

I feel almost the same way, but I'm trying not to caught between putting newer players in a category. He is more proactive now than before (@HeroOfTime that is why I FoSed you the previous day, you're inability to make up your own mind and wanting to just go with the flow) which is a town tell, but I feel like even if he was Mafia, and we can agree the Mafia could have an experienced player on it, he could be coached by said player. That's why I mentioned in a previous post that "I feel like I know what you're doing". His behaviour can be explained if he is town, and can be just as easily explained if he is scum. So I'm not sold yet.

I don't have a scum lean on Hero per se, but I'm not willing to attribute his behaviour to newness, and his new found scum hunting to townie showing initiative just yet. Not until I have a better read.

 

[HeroOfTime]

I feel almost the same way, but I'm trying not to caught between putting newer players in a category. He is more proactive now than before (@HeroOfTime that is why I FoSed you the previous day, you're inability to make up your own mind and wanting to just go with the flow) which is a town tell, but I feel like even if he was Mafia, and we can agree the Mafia could have an experienced player on it, he could be coached by said player. That's why I mentioned in a previous post that "I feel like I know what you're doing". His behavior can be explained if he is town, and can be just as easily explained if he is scum. So I'm not sold yet.

I apologies for my earlier inactivity, I've got finals coming up next week, and I've been busy with a lot of my studying... plus I really didn't have a read on anyone back then. I said a while ago that I'd get more active as the days went by and other users were bumped off, and I've been following that, as I'm sure you have seen.

@DekuNut , as the days go by and the number of users dwindles down, are the irl game days going to get any shorter?