Team Fortress 2: Mann vs. Machine

[HeroOfTime]

Probably the fact that they're lurking. We don't have that much to go off of in general here.

 

[kokirion]

Night Owl gives me discreet vibes, but is a tad harder to discern given his actions thus far. I will definitely need to reevaluate my suspicions for him. As for Doc, I've mainly brought him up in light of his abrupt vote yesterday, which Viral highlighted. Other than that, his posts don't seem to wholly say much aside from asking questions; however, this could be attributed to his inactivity, which I totally understand if that is the case.

Hmm. I never really looked at Night Owl's posts before, because I really felt that he didn't say anything at all. But I kind of see your point. He made 16 posts in total. Let's say 10 or so of them are serious (removing the RVS fluff). Most of his posts are about the game set-up, theorising about what the roles could be (the red/blue division etc.). In all honesty, focussing mainly on game mechanics etc. is a good way to appear as a contributing and intelligent player, without actually contributing anything to the town. Yeah, I can imagine he's an inactive member of the mafia. Hmm, you made an interesting point actually

 

[A Link In Time]

Here is my assessment of the remaining players except for myself.

Practically Guaranteed to be Town:

• Malon: No one has refuted his doctor claim since Day One, and it would have been foolish to fake claim so early on. Not much else to say here.

Leaning Town:

• Kokirion: Since kokirion came through today so early that the mafia targeted him, but he was able to avoid the shot, I'm more willing than not to believe the validity of his claim. Also, I believe his earlier claims that he was simply wary of Pendio because Pendio's playstyle lends itself better to scum than town play, so it's hard to tell his alignment. Additionally, it makes sense to me that the mafia would have killed either Pendio or kokirion to try to guilt the other, but since kokirion himself was presumably targeted, he's a lot less likely to be part of the mafia, and Pendio was cleared through an unlucky kill by the vig.
• Night Owl: I feel that Night Owl has made a lot of "safe" posts, so to speak, by simply pointing out what various acronyms mean and trying to link the various Team Fortress 2 roles to their mafia counterparts, but there's nothing particularly scummy about his posts either. Of course, he could still be trying to do what Mido and DekuNut accomplished last game by hiding under the radar, but his willingness to lynch Johnny early when there wasn't any concrete evidence to yet support his position seems more likely to be done by a townie who's blind to what alignment the other players in the game have. I highly doubt a mafia member would be willing to take such a risky move.
• Viral Maze: Anyone who's played a few mafia games on ZD will be wary if Viral makes it to Day 3. That said, since people know he has a reputation to play scum craftily, the mafia may leave him up for a longer period of time to confuse the town. I fell for that trap in Mafia Revival where both Viral and I were town. I think Viral's reasoning for wanting to lynch Frozen Chosen over Johnny was solid, since I myself have trouble wrapping my head around how someone confuses the vigilante with vanilla townie. He also noted that despite not going along with the Johnny lynch, it provided valuable information in figuring out the game set-up has four vanilla townies. I am also more inclined to believe Viral is town because he latched onto Toxic_Snowman's desire for a no lynch, which Pendio, a confirmed townie, also agreed would only benefit the mafia.
• Soul: Soul has been going after kokirion a lot as well, so using the reasoning for why I suspect Vergo is scum, it would seem that I should think Soul is too, but I think he has contributed more to the town by pointing out why a no lynch would only benefit the mafia and making a pretty smart move by trying to bait out possible scum's lack of knowledge about the odd/even night set-up. Unfortunately, it backfired, and Johnny, a VT, was lynched in the process, but the reasoning behind his plan seemed solid to me.
• Frozen Chosen: Now that we figured out that there are four vanilla townies in the game, Frozen Chosen's Day 2 claims are believable.

Leaning Scum:

• Toxic_Snowman: I'm still suspicious of Toxic's desire to have a no lynch on the first day. Even if Storm seemed to be a townie, his play style only contributed to increased chaos in the game, and a lynch would have helped to give the town more information either way. Even though he had some decent support for his position, I am instinctively suspicious of someone who even proposes such a move. I also find it strange how he voted for Frozen Chosen when Johnny's fate was practically sealed. It would have been suspicious for mafia to vote for a townie lynch after there are already several votes, so Toxic may have tried to slip under the radar by voting for FroCho instead.
• Vergo-a-go-go: As I mentioned before, I'm suspicious of Vergo for going after kokirion at the end of Day 2. It would have been incredibly risky for two mafia members to draw such heavy attention to each other at the end of the game day, so it's not likely that both kokirion and Vergo are scum. Since I'm leaning towards kokirion being town, it seems more likely to me that Vergo is scum. It also seemed like a desperation move for Vergo to try to get that post out about kokirion before the end of the day (though he didn't realize the day had already ended lol). With kokirion's claim about being targeted during the night, it only makes Vergo look more suspicious.
• HeroOfTime: Hero hasn't contributed much in the game thread thus far, and I don't blame him, since this is his first mafia game on ZD, but he was the first to ask Malon to provide evidence that Storm was fake claiming, which resulted in one of the doctors being outed on day one.
• Tristan: Tristan was the second person to ask Malon to provide concrete evidence that Storm was fake claiming. Since he played with Malon last game, Tristan should have known Malon was most likely going to respond with a role claim. It would have been smarter for Tristan to specify how Malon knew without giving away his role. I'm also suspicious of Tristan for saying that he thinks a vig kill makes kokirion look suspicious when kokirion's soft claim hints at a completely different role, and the night scene makes it pretty clear that it was the mafia who targeted kokirion.
• Zelda15: Zelda15 has barely posted in the thread, but the one notable post she made was to vote for Pendio without any evidence. This could be a noob scum move, though I would like to see more posts from her and another explanation of why she voted for Pendio other than a gut feeling.

Note: In a game of this size, there are probably four mafia members, so I doubt all of the above players are scum, but they're the ones who have caught my attention to this point.


Neutral/Inconclusive:

• Crus@der77x: He's a replacement for a player who didn't post at all, so I'll wait for Crusader to catch up.
• Jamie: Jamie is in a similar position as Crusader, although Dan did post a little. Still, it's hard to glean anything of substance from Dan's posts.
• Mido: Mido has barely posted in this thread at all. It's unusual to see such large breaks between his posts, but I can understand that he was busy. If he doesn't post more today, he may indeed be scum trying to remain under the radar, but nothing from his posts has particularly caught my eye.
• Doc: Doc's in a very similar position to Mido. He said that the town should spend as much time considering the available evidence as possible, which can be construed as a townie making an honest statement or mafia playing it very safe.

 

[kokirion]

• Vergo-a-go-go: As I mentioned before, I'm suspicious of Vergo for going after kokirion at the end of Day 2. It would have been incredibly risky for two mafia members to draw such heavy attention to each other at the end of the game day, so it's not likely that both kokirion and Vergo are scum. Since I'm leaning towards kokirion being town, it seems more likely to me that Vergo is scum. It also seemed like a desperation move for Vergo to try to get that post out about kokirion before the end of the day (though he didn't realize the day had already ended lol). With kokirion's claim about being targeted during the night, it only makes Vergo look more suspicious.

One thing in Vergo's defence, though, that just came to my mind when reading your analysis. It does however make little sense that he would attack me at the end of the day if he already knew he might be killing me that night. And because then my alignment will be public, his post would simply be invalid. It would just not be necessary, a waste of words, at a time of the day when no one really expects you to write something about it anyway.
But, of course, that is on the assumption that the mafia already had their plan ready for the night before it started. Maybe it was a heated discussion and a last-minute decision, then Vergo might simply not have known at that point

 

[HeroOfTime]

HeroOfTime: Hero hasn't contributed much in the game thread thus far, and I don't blame him, since this is his first mafia game on ZD, but he was the first to ask Malon to provide evidence that Storm was fake claiming, which resulted in one of the doctors being outed on day one.

Both docs have survived so far, and I wasn't the only one to ask him for his evidence. And can you really blame me? Why would he make a claim like that without providing any evidence? If I was mafia, I'd have just taken quiet notice of it and offed him that night. Tristan and Pendio also pressed him, both experienced players, and at least one of which turned out to be town.

 

[Soul]

Why would he make a claim like that without providing any evidence?

That's exactly the reason you're being criticised for that play. If he made claim like that without providing evidence, then he most likely did that because providing said evidence would be bad for the town. I'm willing to believe it was an honest mistake on your part, but you're not exactly doing yourself any favours by trying to justify it.

 

[Ver-go-a-go-go]

Malon:

I'm getting a big newbie vibe from him (this is his second game if I remember correctly), and his behavior up to this point falls in line with it. I was very curious as to why the mafia hadn't gone after a confirmed doctor yet, but I believe I have an answer - Malon doesn't have enough experience with the game to be a massive thorn in their side later on, and with this apparent odd/even mechanic, whichever doctor is his counterpart is most likely protecting Malon like crazy right now whenever possible. Mafia don't have much to gain by going after someone that might be un-killable for the time being. I wouldn't be surprised if he drops pretty quick, but he doesn't seem to be too much of a priority. Probably the most town player thus far.

I'm not really entertaining the possibility that he fake-claimed at the moment, although I'll remain wary as long as a claimed doctor continues to live.

Soul:

As for who to lynch today, in my opinion it cannot be either Malon or Storm, but there's no particularly strong suspect. We might have to policy lynch if nothing else comes up.

This caught my eye. My reaction when I read Malon's post was thinking "please shut up, I hope nobody saw that", yet you inquire for more information? Did you want Malon to reveal his role?

These two were the ones that stood out to me with Soul out of day one. I believe he's also new to the game (his second one as is with Malon, at least from what I can gather), but I'd like to ask anyway - is this your second/third online mafia game? Just curious.

Vanilla Townies are evidently represented by the Demoman. Now I know nothing about Team Fortress, but am I correct in assuming that each character only exists once per team in that game? If so, there can only be two Vanilla Townies, the Blu Demoman and the red one (Sadia). If there's more Vanilla Townies in the game, there would either have to be another Team Fortress role associated with them, or they're all either red or blu Demoman, which is very unlikely I believe.

Fair enough. I don't know anything about Team Fortress 2 either, but Storm handily posted a list of characters on Day One:

HEAVY -> Roleblocker
MEDIC -> Doctor
SCOUT -> ?
SPY -> Cop?
DEMO -> Vanilla Townie
SOLDIER -> ?
PYRO -> Arsonist?
ENGINEER -> ?
SNIPER -> Vigilante

Roles with question marks are those I'm not sure about. That's 9 characters, I'm assuming all of which are doubled, which makes 18. Unless there's only two scum, which I doubt, it's likely not all of those are used. Heavy, Medic, Demoman and Sniper are confirmed to be in the game. The remaining ones all sound like they'd correspond to some sort of powerrole to me. Unless there's multiples of Red and Blu Demoman, which I doubt, I find it highly unlikely that there's more than two Vanilla Townies.

There are more than two vanilla townies, this seems certain. At this point I expect there to be four, although we've already seen that they don't have to be the same role (Sadia and Johnny were Demoman and Engineer respectively), so there could very well be three. My theory - some roles are too powerful to have multiple versions, so Deku has made them vanilla townies for balance. Roleblockers aren't terribly OP, so those were left in tact; but I would hazard a guess that the power-role of the Demoman and Engineer might be a great deal more useful, hence them having vanilla counterparts.

Why do I believe there to be at least four, perhaps more? I think the "counter-part" mechanic of this game is what Deku is leaning on the most to make it unique. I expect a few of these roles to not be in the game due to the amount of people, but I believe that at least one of these TF2 characters is comprised completely of two townies (making it a pair, as per the game mechanics).

There was much conversation earlier on about this being role madness; this leads me to believe that there are not many vanilla townies (as I said, 4 is what I think right now) due to how many were considering it and bouncing the idea around (more on that later).

I can't say I'm terribly suspicious of Soul. His playstyle is very reminiscent of people I've known that are smart people during their first few games. Those who drive activity don't bother me too much during the first few games. I very much agreed with his reply to kokirion's accusations of Pendio; I don't believe mafia would have interfered at that point.

Tristan:

Because of this, it would be good for us to know who you protected as that person is very likely to be town.

I'm very interested with this, specifically in its relation to kokirion's claim.

Kokirion is implying he knows beyond a doubt that he was the target last night - this indicates to me that he could tell from the nightscene, where specifically the killer was too late or not on time. He isn't going into specifics, but I would think the wording of the nightscene is critical. I wouldn't be surprised if kokirion is something like a commuter, and decided to get the hell out of dodge to avoid a bullet. The pieces seem to line up well.

When I think of a doctor saving someone, I think more of an aid role, like someone heals another person after the attack. The fact that we're even given these methodologies of death during the night points to perhaps there being a clear differentiation between a doctor heal and some other force.

I also think that pointing out that kokirion looks worse due to Pendio's death doesn't make a terrible amount of sense. It seems rather obvious that the mafia kill wasn't on Pendio; and even if it was, it seems like far too obvious of a move that would bring up the classic "framing" argument given the amount of discussion between the two. These two factors together make me wary of Tristan.

Frozen Chosen:

Yeah, I only see there being being two VT's: Sadia and me. I'm still not certain on Sooshi being scum, though. Why? I feel like he could be a potential vig or serial killer. That why I hesitate to vote for him. But if the town feels like it's the best option, I would vote for a Sooshi lynch.

I think FC is town. If I take what he says as true, then there are most likely at least four vanilla townies in the game. As I said above, this makes the most amount of sense to me. I believe I know FC's actual TF2 role as well; it's just all adding up pretty well. His being so adamant to lynch Johnny can be supported by him knowing for sure that there were two vanillas at that point (himself and Sadia) and that it would be odd to have three vanillas without a fourth. A vanilla has nothing but the game to go on - I can't blame someone for seeing a tiny opening for certainty and going for it.


Kokirion:

I've said my piece on kokirion, but anyone who actually read my late response knows that I never once said I thought he was mafia in that moment, nor did I place a counter vote on him. His playstyle so far has been far too aggressive from what I experienced with him being on the mafia, specifically how he's chosen to not participate in common lynch targets (Storm and Johnny) but rather attempt to see between the lines with players such as Pendio and myself. This strikes me more as a strategy for him with him not having played a game in such a long time.

Hmm, I certainly did not expect the mafia to target me last night. Good thing I prepared a plan b in advance, though.

Anyone who was the "real" target, or thinks he knows for sure I'm lying, don't hesitate to counterclaim! I mean, if you do, you have scum ready to be lynched in front of you! But if you falsely claim now and I flip town after I die...
Ironically this is a great opportunity to prove my innocence.

"Plan B" seems to indicate, as I said before, something attuned to a commuter role. I'm curious as to what anyone could "counter-claim" though; how could someone possibly know that they were targeted by the mafia and survived? That could be literally anyone else who was able to escape during the nightscene before the mafia actually arrived.

If kokirion is indeed town, I believe his unwillingness to convey anything more about his role is just a personal protection mechanism more than anything. With specific information on what his role is, the mafia could perhaps be able to play around it and circumvent his ability to avoid be killed during the night.

Hero of Time:

Like Malon and Storm, I'm getting big newbie vibes. It's difficult to fault someone for making obvious "scummy" mistakes during their first game. His lack of consistent and in-depth posting makes me thing he falls more into the category of Malon and Storm (somewhat apparent townies that make beginner mistakes) rather than Soul, who I believe to be intelligent enough to appear too "pro-town" despite him being new to the game and having little knowledge of his playstyle.

More to come.....

 

[Night Owl]

I'm back from camping over the weekend.

It looks like Pendio was taken out by the vig, and it looks like a commuter escaped the mafia attack.

As far as who I find suspicious.
I'm looking at those who were posting reasons why sadia would be targeted night one.
They are the some of the more skilled players and at least one of them is likely mafia and another is likely a vig, since both groups targeted sadia the same night. I believe Viral and Vergo were among those

Here is my assessment of the remaining players except for myself.

• Kokirion: Since kokirion came through today so early that the mafia targeted him, but he was able to avoid the shot, I'm more willing than not to believe the validity of his claim. Also, I believe his earlier claims that he was simply wary of Pendio because Pendio's playstyle lends itself better to scum than town play, so it's hard to tell his alignment. Additionally, it makes sense to me that the mafia would have killed either Pendio or kokirion to try to guilt the other, but since kokirion himself was presumably targeted, he's a lot less likely to be part of the mafia, and Pendio was cleared through an unlucky kill by the vig.

Can you explain how you know he was targeted by the mafia? I don't remember him claiming and the night scene doesn't say it was him.
I could have just missed a post when I was catching up.

As far as who I feel are town:
Malon and Fro Cho I have a good feeling that they are town.
Fro Cho acted the way he did because we were under the assumption there were only two townies, If that were the case, it made no sense for a mafia to make the move he did.

 

[Night Owl]

Nevermind I guess I missed Koki's roleclaim

 

[Night Owl]

I actually think Koki is likely telling the truth with his claim.
With the odd-even mechanic, last night's mafia target would likely suspect that he would be the target the next night, assuming the mafia really wants him dead, when his power doesn't work.

If he is lying, he runs the risk of outing himself as scum if we lynch anyone who counters, and as he pointed if scum counters, they would be revealed if koki flips town.

It's a bold move that really only makes sense if the one making it is a commuter.

I'm going to add koki to my town list with malon and fro cho

 

[Doc]

As for Doc, I've mainly brought him up in light of his abrupt vote yesterday, which Viral highlighted. Other than that, his posts don't seem to wholly say much aside from asking questions; however, this could be attributed to his inactivity, which I totally understand if that is the case.

I want to explain my sudden vote against Johnny, which I realize looks scummy. As I said, I was very inactive for most of day 2. Most of what I could say against Johnny had already been mentioned, all the questions had already been asked. At the time, I fully believed that Fro Cho or he were mafia, and I trusted Fro Cho much more than Johnny. The day was ending, so I didn't have much opportunity to continue analyzing the situation and voted.

I'll try to post my suspicions on other players in an hour; Game of Thrones is coming on

 

[Soul]

Soul:




These two were the ones that stood out to me with Soul out of day one. I believe he's also new to the game (his second one as is with Malon, at least from what I can gather), but I'd like to ask anyway - is this your second/third online mafia game? Just curious.






There are more than two vanilla townies, this seems certain. At this point I expect there to be four, although we've already seen that they don't have to be the same role (Sadia and Johnny were Demoman and Engineer respectively), so there could very well be three. My theory - some roles are too powerful to have multiple versions, so Deku has made them vanilla townies for balance. Roleblockers aren't terribly OP, so those were left in tact; but I would hazard a guess that the power-role of the Demoman and Engineer might be a great deal more useful, hence them having vanilla counterparts.

Why do I believe there to be at least four, perhaps more? I think the "counter-part" mechanic of this game is what Deku is leaning on the most to make it unique. I expect a few of these roles to not be in the game due to the amount of people, but I believe that at least one of these TF2 characters is comprised completely of two townies (making it a pair, as per the game mechanics).

There was much conversation earlier on about this being role madness; this leads me to believe that there are not many vanilla townies (as I said, 4 is what I think right now) due to how many were considering it and bouncing the idea around (more on that later).

I can't say I'm terribly suspicious of Soul. His playstyle is very reminiscent of people I've known that are smart people during their first few games. Those who drive activity don't bother me too much during the first few games. I very much agreed with his reply to kokirion's accusations of Pendio; I don't believe mafia would have interfered at that point.

Interesting, I hadn't thought of that possibility. So you're saying that the Blu Demoman could be a powerrole even when his red counterpart was a Vanilla Townie, for example? I guess it's possible, though so far we haven't seen confirmation of this. On the contrary, both Heavies had the same role. Seeing as I made mistake earlier by assuming something about the setup that didn't turn out to be true, I'll be keeping this in mind. I'm not convinced it's the case, but it's certainly a possibility. We'll likely find out soon enough.

To answer your question, this is my second forum mafia game. I played some chatroom mafia ages ago, but it was a very simplified version that only had Vanilla Townies, scum without power roles, and a Cop. I learned the basics from that, but I guess you could still consider me a newbie when it comes to "serious" mafia games.

I actually think Koki is likely telling the truth with his claim.
With the odd-even mechanic, last night's mafia target would likely suspect that he would be the target the next night, assuming the mafia really wants him dead, when his power doesn't work.

If he is lying, he runs the risk of outing himself as scum if we lynch anyone who counters, and as he pointed if scum counters, they would be revealed if koki flips town.

It's a bold move that really only makes sense if the one making it is a commuter.

I'm going to add koki to my town list with malon and fro cho

How big is the risk really though? From what I can tell, Commuter isn't exactly a very common role, so the chance of it simply not being in the game is rather high. In that case, a scum aligned kokirion could easily clear his name by making up a fake claim like that. On the other hand, we'd get suspicious if he doesn't die the next night. Which is rather inevitable unless the hidden doctor chooses to protect him, which I assume we could gather from the night scene. The mafia could be thinking the same of course, and target someone else instead - Malon for example.

What I don't understand is what the whole point of that roleclaim was in the first place. If it was to clear his name, then I'm wondering wether that was even needed at all. If it was an attempt to divide the hidden doctor's attention, then a play like this makes a lot of sense for a scum member.

I really don't know wether I'm reading too much into this, and I hate to focus negative attention on kokirion yet again, but I can't help but scratch my head in wonderment about the things he does in this game.

 

[Soul]

A general question to those who know about Team Fortress: Is there a role in that game that does something that works similarly to a Commuter? Out of the relationships between TF2 characters and mafia roles that have been confirmed so far, how closely do they mimic each other?

 

[Soul]

Actually, I take all that back. What you said about the night scene makes sense, and I think I'm a victim of confirmation bias here. I've been researching all kinds of roles following his claim, and a Commuter really is the only role that I could find that both works with his play and with the night scene.

 

[Night Owl]

@Soul I suggested commuter would work for a scout back in day 1.
Scouts are the fastest characters in TF2 so a role like commuter would fit nicely.