Super Monkey Ball. Odds are 100%. An iteration of that game has been a launch title for every Nintendo hardware since the series was invented.
Some sort of racing game (most likely Ridge Racer, but it could just as well be a quick port of the latest NFS title). Odds are 90%. Like Super Monkey Ball, pretty much a given.
A new casual game collection like Wii Play or Wii Sports. Odds are 80%. Yes, Project Café is rumored to be aimed at hardcore gamers. But there is still a lot of money made from casual games. And if Project Café offers another control revolution like the Wii or the DS, these casual game collections are tailormade to get players used to the new possibilities.
A new Wario Ware. Odds are 70%. Again, to showcase what the controls are capable of. But like Smooth Moves, it probably won't be available at the system launch.
A new Mario platformer (not a Galaxy 3). Odds are 60%. We haven't had one of these at a hardware launch since N64. The Gamecube only had Luigi's Mansion, and games like Sunshine, Galaxy or New Super Mario Bros. were released long after the launch. The DS had Super Mario 64, but that was just a port. I think it's time for another new Mario platformer to be launched with the hardware. The question is what Nintendo thinks.
Marvel vs Capcom 3. Odds are 50%. While Street Fighter IV 3D Edition is the most successful 3DS game yet (come June 16, that will change drastically), it was mainly successful because it was pretty much the only decent game at the hardware launch. Not because it was a brilliant remake of Capcom's latest beat'em up (which it was). I guess it depends on how well MvC3 sells on Xbox360 and PS3 in the coming months. And on the other games available at the Project Café launch.
Monkey Island: Special Edition. Odds are 40%. This game (and its sequel) was released for Xbox 360 and PS3, but not for the Wii. Since Project Café will have HD-graphics, this is a great opportunity to present one of the best games EVER to Nintendo loyalists. Especially if the rumors of a touchscreen (which would be ideal for a point-and-click adventure like Monkey Island) are true. And yet, Monkey Island Special Edition will be three years old if the Project Café really launches in 2012. By then, they might as well not bother at all.
Eternal Darkness 2. Odds are 30%. Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem came out too late to be noticed. By the time of its release, the Gamecube was already known as a kiddie console. Not as a hardware to have if you're a horror fan (despite Capcom's brilliant Resident Evil remake). And yet it was such a great game, and Denis Dyack of Silicon Knights has teased at a sequel for years. I'd love to see that sequel at the launch of Nintendo's next hardware. And a port of Sanity's Requiem for the 3DS, while we're at it. Man, that would rock. It will probably remain wishful thinking for all of eternity, though.
Pikmin 3. Odds are 20%. Fans loved Pikmin 1 and 2. And yet sales were mediocre. Yes, I'd love to see a third game in the series, but I don't expect it at the launch of a new hardware.
Harvest Moon. Odds are 10%. Sure, there'll be a Harvest Moon on the Project Café, but not within the Project Café's first year.
A new Zelda (after Skyward Sword). Odds are 0.5%. At least at the launch of the Project Café hardware. Unless Project Café won't be released until 2015. But I'd love to see that guess proven wrong.
