Mafia E: GAHH! WEREWOLVES!
- Thread starter Viral Maze
- Start date
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Pen
The game is on!
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2010
Yeah I was also considering to target one of them, but I was suspicious of those two for the same reason (voting Draco). My suspicion on Thareous on the other hand was mainly based on the fact that he tried to protect Zenox on day one. So, after a while of thinking, I decided to target Thareous (which turned out to be a very lucky move indeed).
I really don't see how we're teaming up. ALIT just seems to believe my claim (which, by the way, everyone should). I am 100% sure that Thareous is the Alpha Werewolf. Let's lynch him today, and you'll see that I'm telling the truth. Honestly, why should I be lying about this? If I was a mafioso myself I wouldn't try to lynch my own Godfather, would I? And if I was a townie with another role it would just be reckless of me to do this, and it wouldn't be good for me either.
Come on, I don't want to have role claimed like this for nothing.
Xinnamin
Mrs. Austin
Alrighty, doing a re-evaluation of the facts. Personally, I'm leaning towards believing Pendio's roleclaim.
First, let me explain my thoughts about the role claim itself. If it turns out it was a fakeclaim, and it is a very risky fakeclaim, should Thareous flip town, Pendio is dead next day barring some complete and utter miracle. This means that the mafia would have to consider Thareous a HUGE threat to make this fakeclaim, literally large enough that they can't wait until night to kill him. The Vig is really the only role that should pose anywhere near that much of a threat, and I don't think we even have a Vig this game. On the other hand, it's a completely safe real claim. His role is a one-shot, this means if he's telling the truth, Pendio is now just a vanilla, and the mafia have bigger fish to fry. If he's telling the truth, Pendio faces no threat from the mafia barring retaliation, but as a townie now that would be a waste of a mafia kill.
There are holes in the claim, yes, but as we still don't really know exactly what the Dreaming God did last night, it's still completely possible that the claim is real. If the Dreaming God action was actually a global night-protection penetration, then investigation would have returned truthful on even the Godfather. Of course, we can't say for certain until either Pendio or Thareous dies.
But here's the thing. Let's say we lynch Thareous today. If Pendio is lying and Thareous flips town, Pendio would be a confirmed scum, but likely not the godfather (this kind of fakeclaim is too risky for the godfather to pull if he has underlings to spare), and we'd have one dead townie for one dead mafia. If he's telling the truth, then we kill the godfather today for free and everything is good. Now let's say we lynch Pendio today. If he's lying, then we have one dead mafia, and Thareous will likely fall at night with no doctor. If he's telling the truth, godfather lives for another night. Either way, we'll have at least one dead mafia in the next two days, but I'd say lynching Thareous today leads to the better set of chances.
THAT ALL BEING SAID, I decided to also look past just the roleclaim and see if there's any hints about Thareous's alignments in previous posts. I haven't looked at Pendio yet, I will in a bit, but here's my thoughts on Thareous. If you look at his activity, day one, his first post was to defend Zenox. Zenox flipped scum. Bad start for Thareous, but hey, day one, nothing terribly conclusive from just day one. But Thareous has shown some persistent scum behavior. He has been very much a follower, taking other people's observations and pushing on them rather than making his own. Here he used Draco's posts against PK Flash. Here he followed HoT's lead against Draco. Here he used Lord Death's post against Raindrop. All three of those people flipped town. Now, this is nothing conclusive in itself, but the act of following other people's leads is a very safe tactic, lets you feign activity without ever putting yourself in the spotlight, and easily abused by scum. Doing it once or twice is entirely normal, but this is how he's played the whole game for every lynch.
Nothing is conclusive on its own, but with everything together, it's making quite a case against Thareous.
I'll be back about Pendio in a bit.
OK back with Pendio. He didn't have very much to analyze, being a replacement for Austin after all. I tried looking at Austin's posts too, but jesus christ there was so much fluff. At any rate, Austin was just acting like Austin, exact same meta as always, exactly how I'd expect him to act in a mafia game, literally nothing to pick apart regarding alignment.
So I'll just pull up basically the only post Pendio made of any interest prior to this day: his list. As Josh sardonically picked apart later on that page, his list was for the most part fluffy and insubstantial, formulated entirely on gut feelings and fragmented evidence, basically saying nothing in so many words (no offense). What it did do though, was put a big bullseye on his head for attention. Most scum will lay low and either parrot other players or just be generally useless, but always trying to divert attention away from themselves whenever possible. Experienced scum will hog the spotlight and divert suspicion with they "hey guys I'm being super helpful for the town" excuse, but that's not what this list was at all, and I don't expect Pendio to pull both a high-risk scum meta AND a high risk fakeclaim.
tl;dr Vote: Thareous
First, let me explain my thoughts about the role claim itself. If it turns out it was a fakeclaim, and it is a very risky fakeclaim, should Thareous flip town, Pendio is dead next day barring some complete and utter miracle. This means that the mafia would have to consider Thareous a HUGE threat to make this fakeclaim, literally large enough that they can't wait until night to kill him. The Vig is really the only role that should pose anywhere near that much of a threat, and I don't think we even have a Vig this game. On the other hand, it's a completely safe real claim. His role is a one-shot, this means if he's telling the truth, Pendio is now just a vanilla, and the mafia have bigger fish to fry. If he's telling the truth, Pendio faces no threat from the mafia barring retaliation, but as a townie now that would be a waste of a mafia kill.
There are holes in the claim, yes, but as we still don't really know exactly what the Dreaming God did last night, it's still completely possible that the claim is real. If the Dreaming God action was actually a global night-protection penetration, then investigation would have returned truthful on even the Godfather. Of course, we can't say for certain until either Pendio or Thareous dies.
But here's the thing. Let's say we lynch Thareous today. If Pendio is lying and Thareous flips town, Pendio would be a confirmed scum, but likely not the godfather (this kind of fakeclaim is too risky for the godfather to pull if he has underlings to spare), and we'd have one dead townie for one dead mafia. If he's telling the truth, then we kill the godfather today for free and everything is good. Now let's say we lynch Pendio today. If he's lying, then we have one dead mafia, and Thareous will likely fall at night with no doctor. If he's telling the truth, godfather lives for another night. Either way, we'll have at least one dead mafia in the next two days, but I'd say lynching Thareous today leads to the better set of chances.
THAT ALL BEING SAID, I decided to also look past just the roleclaim and see if there's any hints about Thareous's alignments in previous posts. I haven't looked at Pendio yet, I will in a bit, but here's my thoughts on Thareous. If you look at his activity, day one, his first post was to defend Zenox. Zenox flipped scum. Bad start for Thareous, but hey, day one, nothing terribly conclusive from just day one. But Thareous has shown some persistent scum behavior. He has been very much a follower, taking other people's observations and pushing on them rather than making his own. Here he used Draco's posts against PK Flash. Here he followed HoT's lead against Draco. Here he used Lord Death's post against Raindrop. All three of those people flipped town. Now, this is nothing conclusive in itself, but the act of following other people's leads is a very safe tactic, lets you feign activity without ever putting yourself in the spotlight, and easily abused by scum. Doing it once or twice is entirely normal, but this is how he's played the whole game for every lynch.
Nothing is conclusive on its own, but with everything together, it's making quite a case against Thareous.
I'll be back about Pendio in a bit.
OK back with Pendio. He didn't have very much to analyze, being a replacement for Austin after all. I tried looking at Austin's posts too, but jesus christ there was so much fluff. At any rate, Austin was just acting like Austin, exact same meta as always, exactly how I'd expect him to act in a mafia game, literally nothing to pick apart regarding alignment.
So I'll just pull up basically the only post Pendio made of any interest prior to this day: his list. As Josh sardonically picked apart later on that page, his list was for the most part fluffy and insubstantial, formulated entirely on gut feelings and fragmented evidence, basically saying nothing in so many words (no offense). What it did do though, was put a big bullseye on his head for attention. Most scum will lay low and either parrot other players or just be generally useless, but always trying to divert attention away from themselves whenever possible. Experienced scum will hog the spotlight and divert suspicion with they "hey guys I'm being super helpful for the town" excuse, but that's not what this list was at all, and I don't expect Pendio to pull both a high-risk scum meta AND a high risk fakeclaim.
tl;dr Vote: Thareous
Last edited:
Viral Maze
Verb the adjective noun
Thanks for the heads up.
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Vote Tally:
Pendio: 1 (Rachel)
Thareous: 3 (Pendio, ALiT, Xinnamin)
A Link in Time: 1 (Thareous)
No Votes Cast: 5 (Erebea, DracoMajora, Josh, Hero of Time, Keeseman)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
- Joined
- May 25, 2008
- Location
- In my house
I'm voting for Thareous just because he's scum
Vote: Thareous
Vote: Thareous
- Joined
- May 25, 2008
- Location
- In my house
lynched mothuafuucka
wut u got 2 say fo yo self
wut u got 2 say fo yo self
Xinnamin
Mrs. Austin
That's hammer isn't it?
- Joined
- May 25, 2008
- Location
- In my house
saaaay whaaaat
Xinnamin
Mrs. Austin
He's the innocent child...which is still a virgin (oh god I hope) so ya, no hammer yet.
- Joined
- May 25, 2008
- Location
- In my house
gosh draco you so useless
y don't u just goaway
y don't u just goaway
- Joined
- Apr 16, 2010
Vote: Thareous
Xinnamin
Mrs. Austin
Well, that'll do it. Where be Viral.
Viral Maze
Verb the adjective noun
Darknut_hunter has replaced Keeseman.
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Vote Tally:
Pendio: 1 (Rachel)
Thareous: 6 (Pendio, ALiT, Xinnamin, Josh, Erebea)
A Link in Time: 1 (Thareous)
No Votes Cast: 3 (DracoMajora, Hero of Time, Darknut_Hunter)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Thats a lynch. TWILIGHT for ~12 hours. Twilight will end Feb 21st at noon EST (-5) at the latest.
Feel free to send in night actions during this periods (or wait until Night once the lynch scene is up, either way works).
----
Vote Tally:
Pendio: 1 (Rachel)
Thareous: 6 (Pendio, ALiT, Xinnamin, Josh, Erebea)
A Link in Time: 1 (Thareous)
No Votes Cast: 3 (DracoMajora, Hero of Time, Darknut_Hunter)
With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.
Thats a lynch. TWILIGHT for ~12 hours. Twilight will end Feb 21st at noon EST (-5) at the latest.
Feel free to send in night actions during this periods (or wait until Night once the lynch scene is up, either way works).
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