Kid Icarus: Uprising - Mafia Game Thread

[Ver-go-a-go-go]

Aight I'm gonna go back and look at Fire and see if I can see why mafia might want to kill him.

I wasn't active for the past few parts of the game, but I can't recall FvI being that active either. This leads me to believe that the possible role cop the mafia has is doing good work so far. I wouldn't put FvI high on my list of investigative suspects though, which leads me to believe that either 1.) The mafia has already exhausted the primary targets they wanted to investigate, or 2.) Regularly "dangerous" players are in a larger amount in this rendition of the mafia.

A powerful role such as FvI might not be a chance kill. The mafia knew who he was, and acted accordingly.

In other news.... What do people think of the latter half of the DekuNut bandwagon?

 

[kokirion]

A near universal that I've come to notice is that mafia kills are almost always denoted by a plural, because the mafia is indeed a group. If the night-scene uses words like "group", or "them", it makes it far more likely to me that the mafia was the killing party. This isn't always the case, as some mods prefer to use the Godfather as the lone killing individual for the mafia, with the most recent example being Dead Man's Chest/At World's End mafia. The way this night-scene is written makes me think that FirevsIce was the victim of the mafia.

sounds very possible

Big Octo's death screams third party to me. I could be wrong of course, but I can't help but feel the mannerisms, speech, and thoughts of Big Octo's killer fit Dark Pit rather nicely. So I think there's a Serial Killer, but not a Vigilante.

FirevsIce's death may indicate the presence of some sort of cop for the mafia. There's always the slight chance that they got lucky, but it's not too far of a stretch to think that they hit a powerful role with their investigative ability. I suspect I was the target of the night one failed mafia kill, with musicfan confirming he protected me. I was honestly surprised that I was still alive, as I was expecting the mafia to take out a pseudo-confirmed townie. I'm guessing I've already been investigated, and since my skin is white as vanilla, they went after someone who could actually do some damage to them.

The only thing I wonder is, why Big Octo?
I do not understand any of today's deaths. Big Octo and FirevsIce did not seem like very probable targets to me.
Your theory about the possible cop seems plausible, but I doubt it could explain both deaths. Still, 2 "random" deaths seem strange to me. In particular, Big Octo's death surprises me. Both because I didn't think he would be targeted and because of his interesting role. Was it really by guess that someone killed him, or is there something more at play?

I was honestly surprised that I was still alive, as I was expecting the mafia to take out a pseudo-confirmed townie. I'm guessing I've already been investigated, and since my skin is white as vanilla, they went after someone who could actually do some damage to them.

First of all, in no way do I think the mafia really has a rolecop. It is a "possibility". You explain a range of (non-irregular) coincidences as evidence to this hypothesis. It's certainly an interesting theory, but it's too early to make any more out if it than that.
Also, I wonder. Why are you making this soft-claim? There is a good possibility that a cult is around, who do you think they will target? The confirmed townie of course. I suggest that until we can say for sure that there's probably no cult in this game, we refrain from roleclaiming. Having said that, I'm simply going to ignore your claim. Even if you truly are a vanilla townie, there is a possibility that you won't be one anymore after a couple of days.



About Dekunut, it was obvious to me that he was scum. His behaviour couldn't be a better example of a wolf trying to blend in in a group of sheep.
However, there's one thing that bothers me about this lynch... the easyness. I stated it before, already before we lynched him. I would expect the mafia to try to be a little bit more... protective. The mafia godfather is not a role to toss away during the first few days. That makes me wonder... maybe it was difficult for the group to prevent his death? For example, maybe this mafia group is rather small compared to the usual size (which would lessen their influence)? Perhaps they were caught off guard? Or does this tell us that the mafia group is rather inexperienced (the lack of a strategy; the disability to react oppropriate)?

 

[Pen]

I reread all of DekuNut's old posts, and I could not find anything that I thought could potentially assist in our scum hunt. Mostly DekuNut was only agreeing with other players in different matters. In fact, throughout his time in the game I actually think he said that he agreed with almost every player. Because of that it is difficult to link him to a specific player, or to a specific group of players.

What do people think of the latter half of the DekuNut bandwagon?

I have not thought of that a whole lot yet. Apart from DekuNut's own vote for himself, pkforce was the last to vote. Possibly scum deciding to "look good" after realizing that his Godfather's death was inevitable. That being said, I have no great suspicions on anybody in this moment. The first few voters on the Deku bandwagon (Dracomajora and justac00lguy) are probably innocent. They are clearly not completely conformed, but I will certainly trust them over most other players.

What do you think yourself, Vergo?

First of all, in no way do I think the mafia really has a rolecop.

Why do you seem so certain about this?

 

[Justac00lguy]

About Dekunut, it was obvious to me that he was scum. His behaviour couldn't be a better example of a wolf trying to blend in in a group of sheep.
However, there's one thing that bothers me about this lynch... the easyness. I stated it before, already before we lynched him. I would expect the mafia to try to be a little bit more... protective. The mafia godfather is not a role to toss away during the first few days. That makes me wonder... maybe it was difficult for the group to prevent his death? For example, maybe this mafia group is rather small compared to the usual size (which would lessen their influence)? Perhaps they were caught off guard? Or does this tell us that the mafia group is rather inexperienced (the lack of a strategy; the disability to react oppropriate)?

That's what surprised me when he flipped GF to be honest. However it could be to do with the way we approached the lynch. I set out to just state a brief suspicion and that I would explain later. I wanted to see how accepting others would be of the suspicion and a few were. Then I picked the right time to put the pressure on and by that point there was no stopping it.

My guess is that his cohorts agreed with the original suspicion and when the votes came in they had no choice but to join it. They couldn't contradict themselves as they would look incredibly scummy at thay point. I'm keeping a few people in my head who I think were his scum buds just for future's reference. But yeah, I think this lynch was a tough one to stop as it just gained momentum in a short space of time

 

[Pen]

I sense a quote fail...

 

[Justac00lguy]

I sense a quote fail...

Yeah my bad ;p

I was quoting Koki for anyone who is curious.

 

[fused_shadows]

Alright boys let's get this game back up to speed.

The day ends in 3 IRL days, so we've got no time to lose. Looking back through the thread, the main thing that caught my eye was this post:

I'mRather curious, myself.

Vote Draco

It's especially curious that Draco was voting for DekuNut. Maybe robby was trying to protect his scumbud by averting attention away from Deku? It's extremely possible, especially cosidering that thegreenrobby has said that his votes were "attempts at pressure voting.", which could easily be him trying to get someone suspecting amongst the masses, instead of his scumbud.

I placed a vote on greenrobby shortly after he did this before, but that was more of a joke of sorts. I personally think he is the best guy to lynch today, especially considering the recent lack of posting in this game.

Vote: thegreenrobby

Marshal, kokirion, Vergo, and Fig, what are your opinions on greenrobby? Is there anyone else that has caught your eye?

Everyone's opinion is welcome, but these four have the lowest post totals, and thus I'd like to get them back into the swing of things.

 

[The Marshal]

I am not too sure.

Like I said in some other game before, saying that a vote is a pressure vote removes the "pressure" part.
A pressure vote should have some logic behind it. Otherwise it's just a random vote.

Anyway, about Deku's role the word "Underworld" could be used as a faction identification.
There could be 2 scum groups. People suggested that there could be a cult too.

So let's look at things this way, if there are 2 scum groups and a cult, the town would be severly underpowered.
To balance this the 2 scum groups could be made up of roughly half of an avarage scum group.
This could explain why no one seemed to try to defend Deku.

 

[Rachel]

Robby doesn't strike me as scum. Maybe someone who's hasty and may not think too carefully about what he's doing.

kokirion makes a good point about cult recruitment. even if we think someone is town or if someone claims, they could be in the cult. I suppose if the cult can recruit the vig and the vig loses his/her kill, we might find out, but they could keep up a fakeclaim.

I will be gone from tomorrow to Saturday, so if you respond to my post and I don't respond, I apologize.

 

[fused_shadows]

It saddens me to report that the 15 players in this game are currently averaging 2.2 posts in this current Day, which means a 0.55 post/day average. C'mon fellow Town members, how do you expect to catch the scum if you post once every two days?

---

I am not too sure.

Like I said in some other game before, saying that a vote is a pressure vote removes the "pressure" part.
A pressure vote should have some logic behind it. Otherwise it's just a random vote.

I agree completely.

Anyway, about Deku's role the word "Underworld" could be used as a faction identification.
There could be 2 scum groups. People suggested that there could be a cult too.

So let's look at things this way, if there are 2 scum groups and a cult, the town would be severly underpowered.
To balance this the 2 scum groups could be made up of roughly half of an avarage scum group.
This could explain why no one seemed to try to defend Deku.

It's an interesting theory, and one that could make sense. Let's say there are two scum groups, both having two members. This would make a total of four mafia members, which, in combination with Octo and a possible SK, makes 28% of the players anti-Town. That number works, which supports this theory. How often do you see a moderator add a title to the player's role? I've personally never seen it. I think Marshal is right; we are dealing with two scum groups.

In relation to Deku, his partner likely was for lynching him, as they would never risk defending their only partner; it'd give them away. Thus, I think we should look for people who said they agreed with the lynch, but did not join onto the bandwagon. That's probably our guy, if the 2 scum group theory is correct.

Hint: thegreenrobby fits that mould perfectly. Go ahead and look for yourself; he supporting the wagon but never joined.

---

Fig & Dracomajora have yet to even make a post yet. What are you guys trying to hide?

 

[Heroine of Time]

Vote Tally

thegreenrobby (1) - fused_shadows

Not Voting: Fig, Mellow Ezlo, Ver-go-a-go-go, Dracomajora, The Marshal, Pendio, justac00lguy, Atticus, Rachel, kokirion, AvatarFlygon, LittleGumball, pkfroce, thegreenrobby

Day Four will end on Wednesday, March 12th at 8:00 MST. With 15 alive, 8 is majority.

Draco and Fig, please post. I'm a bit disappointed with the lack of activity in this game, especially considering the other one just ended. I really hate post quotas -- after all, as you all know, I'm usually the one struggling to meet those -- but I think I'm going to have to impose one in the next day period. To Draco and Fig, I may be forced to look for replacements for you if you don't post anymore in this day period.

 

[Fig]

Whoops I'm so sorry for not responding I will start posting again within the next few hours. So so sorry! :sad:

Please don't replace me! D:

 

[The Marshal]

Actually when I think about the 2 scum groups thing, there seems to be a lack of a second scum kill. Unless only the scum have killing roles, which seems unlikely.

One of the scum groups could probably have a killing role, while the other has an extra member to even things out.
Think of it this way. Group A has 2 members, one unknown scum role and a killing role, while Group B has 3 members, all of them with powerful roles, but they can't kill.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

I've seen people talking about TheGreenRobby. I decided to look through his posts, and some stuff caught my eye.

Overall, he has a really weird posting style. This post from day one jumped out at me:

I'm a particular fan of modkills.
I'm also a particular fan of RVS. I'm still not sure what it stands for, but it gives us information.
Better off than just sitting around, waiting for the Hidden to pick some of us off.
UNVOTE, and then revote for the third time PENDIO

I didn't even notice this post earlier. And, unless I missed it, only one person responded.

Honestly, why would you blatantly admit being a fan of both modkills and RVS? Granted, he said he didn't know what RVS meant (despite RVSing a lot himself), but modkills? In both, the chances of hitting scum are low given the usually high town-scum ratio, so why do you say you're a fan of them? Chances are, you're going to lose a fellow townie, and that townie could have a potentially powerful role.

Next, I'm going to quote the post that everyone and their mothers quoted:

I'mRather curious, myself.

Vote Draco

This came from the person who has given little to know explanation for his votes, which many people noticed, referencing his seemingly random vote for musicfan.

He still didn't explain that vote, btw.


Hardly any of his posts contain explanation. Most of them are short, basically just restating what others have said. I admit I too am guilty of that though.
I dunno, his posting style just seems off to me.

To get things moving:

Vote: thegreenrobby

 

[Pen]

I actually feel quite passive in this whole Robby thing. I am not for it, nor am I against it. Anyway, I am still awaiting answers from Vergo and Kirion.