kokirion
Just like you. But cooler
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2010
- Location
- Wherever history is in the making
As promised, my analysis of Minish_link's posts.
Minish_Link posted 29 times. Considering that it is only day 4 (day 5 if you include the solar eclipse) and that days only have 24 hours, it's a fair amount of posts. Although comparing it to, e.g., Jamie's posts (who posted 198 times), 29 is not that much.
A decent amount, though considerably less in the spotlights than other players.
My gutfeeling has always said that Minish-Link is scum. But since I was completely wrong about Libk, my entire analysis of the game can be thrown in the garbage. I tried to be precise, and to avoid any pejudices.
Before Libk was revealed to be town, I thought that most of the mafia members had one major thing in common during the first day: they were originally all in favour of keeping the neighbourhoods hidden. A major mistake and in hindsight an easy trail. However, now that Deku has instead been confirmed to be a mafia member, we know this is not true. Deku from the very start agreed with sharing the neighbourhoods, thus rendering it likely that they discussed any sort of strategy or joint opinion on the neighbourhoods. But this was also one of the reasons why I disregarded Minish as a potential mafia member. In her first post she directly attacked the suggestion to keep the neighbourhoods hidden. Now that Deku flipped scum I no longer see this as a definite towntell. Not very scummy either. I think it was a good post showing a genuine intention to participate in the game. At the same time, though, I do find it notable that it was quite a very serious post to start the game with. People who start acting completely crazy or serious sometimes have something to hide. Though I often do that too (being town), so it's not very unusual either.
On to the next posts. In her next posts she continues on her first post.
What I like is that she seems determined. Would she be so determined if she was on the same team with Storm?
I'm not so sure... She might have understood that Storm's point of view was suicidal on day 1 and that it would be better to oppose that firmly. I mean, if she is scum she did survive all the way up till now. If she can do that it would be no surprise if she also understood that. But I see this as quite townish, it seems genuine to me.
What does suddenly catch my eyes, as I will highlight in the following 2 quotes, is that you did seemed to lowkey question a lot of mafia members, while publicly supporting townies. This could either mean an incredibly good read or that you posessed knowledge that others didn't. (by the way. I treated Bok in the quotes as confirmed town. Not because he is, but in the case minish is scum, he is town and she will have known that)
I don't know.. I would normally not even list this as scummy. But I'll try to be very critical in this post, I think that is important.
But adding to the last 2 posts, soon thereafter she posts the following:
This was posted during day 2. There was a skirmish between Mido, Libk and Deku. Of course, we know now that Deku was scum, while Mido and Libk weren't. If Deku would've died that day, there would be 3 more confirmed townies and so it would've been game over for the mafia team. Whatever the stakes, of course they could not have let that happen. If you keep in mind that this could have been D-day for the mafia, it is also assumable that they have not been sitting still during that time. Attacking Mido too firmly and defending Deku too strongly could have the opposite effect, so if anyone would've tried to steer the discussions, they do would act like this..
Voting for Mido. Not saying you are NOT suspicious of Deku, but do indirectly support him by implying there is less reason to be suspicious of him, and again mentioning that you are leaning town on Libk. Libk was probably about to go down one day anyway, if you already mislynch Mido, being on the right side during the Libk lynch could regain some towncredit.
After that I'm leaving out a few more posts that were about the same topic, discussing evidence against Mido.
possibly.
big post:
In this post she drops her support for the "dekunut-made-a-mistake" theory and joined the neutral side. She is also in general less supportive of Dekunut, saying she doesn't trust both of them.
On the one hand I find this a really townish post. On the other hand, what if the mafia realised Deku might die anyway, perhaps Deku even asked his teammates to no longer support him. And even if Deku survived, it would never be for long. Jamie looked too townish, so Deku would be next anyway. No mafia team member would want to be seen as a previous supporter of Dekunut. But if this theory would be true, I would have expected you to be a tiny bit more agressive towards Libk, to slightly favour Deku.
I have been super critical during my post. But understand that I am rather trying to think about how I could possibly see anything scummy in any post, rather than that everything is what I believe. We have to be critical now. No one here is obviously mafia, so someone's alignment has to be different from what it seems at first sight.
I would love to hear a response. I will think about who I am going to vote for in the coming half an hour (roughly), to let it sink in.
I'm not going to vote for Vergo so I will choose between Bok and Minish. I already made a similar post about Bok yesterday, so I will keep both in mind
Minish_Link posted 29 times. Considering that it is only day 4 (day 5 if you include the solar eclipse) and that days only have 24 hours, it's a fair amount of posts. Although comparing it to, e.g., Jamie's posts (who posted 198 times), 29 is not that much.
A decent amount, though considerably less in the spotlights than other players.
My gutfeeling has always said that Minish-Link is scum. But since I was completely wrong about Libk, my entire analysis of the game can be thrown in the garbage. I tried to be precise, and to avoid any pejudices.
Minish' first post seemed rather okay. A good post. She agreed with revealing the neighbourhoods, and with proper arguments.
Before Libk was revealed to be town, I thought that most of the mafia members had one major thing in common during the first day: they were originally all in favour of keeping the neighbourhoods hidden. A major mistake and in hindsight an easy trail. However, now that Deku has instead been confirmed to be a mafia member, we know this is not true. Deku from the very start agreed with sharing the neighbourhoods, thus rendering it likely that they discussed any sort of strategy or joint opinion on the neighbourhoods. But this was also one of the reasons why I disregarded Minish as a potential mafia member. In her first post she directly attacked the suggestion to keep the neighbourhoods hidden. Now that Deku flipped scum I no longer see this as a definite towntell. Not very scummy either. I think it was a good post showing a genuine intention to participate in the game. At the same time, though, I do find it notable that it was quite a very serious post to start the game with. People who start acting completely crazy or serious sometimes have something to hide. Though I often do that too (being town), so it's not very unusual either.
On to the next posts. In her next posts she continues on her first post.
What I like is that she seems determined. Would she be so determined if she was on the same team with Storm?
I'm not so sure... She might have understood that Storm's point of view was suicidal on day 1 and that it would be better to oppose that firmly. I mean, if she is scum she did survive all the way up till now. If she can do that it would be no surprise if she also understood that. But I see this as quite townish, it seems genuine to me.
fair decision.
What does suddenly catch my eyes, as I will highlight in the following 2 quotes, is that you did seemed to lowkey question a lot of mafia members, while publicly supporting townies. This could either mean an incredibly good read or that you posessed knowledge that others didn't. (by the way. I treated Bok in the quotes as confirmed town. Not because he is, but in the case minish is scum, he is town and she will have known that)
What does suddenly
She voted Tristan but he was of course already a dead man by then.
I don't know.. I would normally not even list this as scummy. But I'll try to be very critical in this post, I think that is important.
But adding to the last 2 posts, soon thereafter she posts the following:
Now this is perhaps the most interesting post she made.
This was posted during day 2. There was a skirmish between Mido, Libk and Deku. Of course, we know now that Deku was scum, while Mido and Libk weren't. If Deku would've died that day, there would be 3 more confirmed townies and so it would've been game over for the mafia team. Whatever the stakes, of course they could not have let that happen. If you keep in mind that this could have been D-day for the mafia, it is also assumable that they have not been sitting still during that time. Attacking Mido too firmly and defending Deku too strongly could have the opposite effect, so if anyone would've tried to steer the discussions, they do would act like this..
Voting for Mido. Not saying you are NOT suspicious of Deku, but do indirectly support him by implying there is less reason to be suspicious of him, and again mentioning that you are leaning town on Libk. Libk was probably about to go down one day anyway, if you already mislynch Mido, being on the right side during the Libk lynch could regain some towncredit.
After that I'm leaving out a few more posts that were about the same topic, discussing evidence against Mido.
I never actually noticed this post. It wasn't scummy at all. But now that Deku died, you could also say that you are one of the first who publicly agreed with the notion that Dekunut's post in which he accidentally asked Pendio a question (who was killed by the mafia just before) was indeed a real mistake.
possibly.
big post:
In this post she drops her support for the "dekunut-made-a-mistake" theory and joined the neutral side. She is also in general less supportive of Dekunut, saying she doesn't trust both of them.
On the one hand I find this a really townish post. On the other hand, what if the mafia realised Deku might die anyway, perhaps Deku even asked his teammates to no longer support him. And even if Deku survived, it would never be for long. Jamie looked too townish, so Deku would be next anyway. No mafia team member would want to be seen as a previous supporter of Dekunut. But if this theory would be true, I would have expected you to be a tiny bit more agressive towards Libk, to slightly favour Deku.
She stayed rather indecisive for the rest of the day
This post is a response to Jamie who questioned whether her last-minute vote on Libk was a deliberate action together with Dekunut to save him.
This is her last post, and the end of my analysis. In her last post she wondered whether Vergo might be scum.. I do not agree with this. Vergo seemed so so so town, so genuinely uninterested in the game. I am actually a bit in a doubt due to this last post. I see any attempt to discredit Vergo at this point as an attempt to spread doubt today, and to present more lynchable alternatives than yourself (if you would be scum)
I have been super critical during my post. But understand that I am rather trying to think about how I could possibly see anything scummy in any post, rather than that everything is what I believe. We have to be critical now. No one here is obviously mafia, so someone's alignment has to be different from what it seems at first sight.
I would love to hear a response. I will think about who I am going to vote for in the coming half an hour (roughly), to let it sink in.
I'm not going to vote for Vergo so I will choose between Bok and Minish. I already made a similar post about Bok yesterday, so I will keep both in mind
