Game Thread Things LG Doesn't Know About: Is This Mafia? Mafia Game Thread

[ExLight]

Cuz what Pen did was absolutely town. He was at the verge of getting lynched yesterday. He even voted himself. what else do you want to read him?

Well, scum can literally do anything a town player would do, even pretend to sacrifice themselves.
I'm townreading him too, but that alone doesn't give him a free pass tbh.

 

[Storm]

Hodor Hodor Hodor Hodor Hodor.
Hodor?
Ho...dor
H...odor
Hodor?
Hodor!?!
HoDoR!!
HODOR!!!
H O D O R!!!!
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODOOOOOOOOOOOOOR!!!!!!!!

HODOR:HODOR

 

[ExLight]

Hodor Hodor Hodor Hodor Hodor.
Hodor?
Ho...dor
H...odor
Hodor?
Hodor!?!
HoDoR!!
HODOR!!!
H O D O R!!!!
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODOOOOOOOOOOOOOR!!!!!!!!

HODOR:HODOR

the memeblocker is totally going to target you

 

[Storm]

I am Groot

 

[Ragnarokio]

Also, @Ragnarokio why were you trying to fill the wagon so hastily on D1?

I said as much yesterday, but I believe that fast wagons yield more information than slow wagons, which was largely the motivation for my sense of haste. Its something I do often as either alignment.

That's actually a little odd, yea.
Why is Pen not your top scumread anymore, Rag? You seemed pretty convinced he was scum yesterday.

if i had to guess i'd say you're more likely telling the truth than you are lying, but i'd also bet more on you flipping scum than on anyone else in the game right now, which is why I'd like to see you hang.

here's a post from yesterday where i more or less say that i think pen is more likely town than scum (but that i feel he is the likeliest candidate for scum).

I'm going to go ahead and Vote: Giri for now. I think this is the right angle to pursue. Pendio's claim is scummy and I don't like his day 1 behaviour, but I feel like the case on Giri is stronger at this point and if nothing else I'd like to see them pressured into contributing more meaningfully today.

here's a post from today where i say that i still find pendio scummy, but that i feel like giri is scummier.

In short, the reason pen isn't my top scumread anymore is because i feel the evidence levied against giri is stronger than the evidence levied against pendio. Pen is still my #2 scumread at this point, but that could easily change depending on the flips today.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I Morbid was a good option for them since she is a strong player. But you aren't attributing it to that. Your logic was: Morbid found Giri lurking to be scummy, then died N1, therefore Giri is scum.

i don't see things in such a black and white way.

Lets say i see the odds of either of my two cases as 40%, and see the odds of an unknown third case being correct as 20%, which probably approximates how i'm thinking right about now.

Killed because Minish was on Giri's case - 0.4
Killed because Minish is strong town player - 0.4
Killed for other reason - 0.2

Note that even this model is pretty naive, because in reality the mafia was probably combining multiple factors (like they probably considered hitting doc over minish but decided not to because they were afraid of the doctor), but this goes into enough detail that i think it works as a rough model for the purposes of useful analysis.

If the first case is true, it almost certainly means Giri is scum, which means there is now a 40% baseline chance of giri being scum given my model is accurate. If the second case is true, it doesn't speak to the alignment of any player. Ditto for the third case, but for other reasons.

This means my overall analysis of the kill makes giri look bad, and doesn't implicate any other player.

I would then go on to combine this kill analysis with other kinds of analysis (for example, giri keeping a low profile on day 1, or not liking pendio's behaviour day 1, or doc being confirmed town), and form a rough table of probabilities for each player being scum. I don't actually do the math, i just estimate it in my head.

Hopefully this allows you to understand my perspective better.

 

[ExLight]

oh hell yea I have a calc IV exam in 3h and I still have no idea how to do those Fourier Series bull****

why so many negative reactions dfjsdnhvgjknf
I nailed it

 

[Ragnarokio]

gj

 

[ExLight]

thanks

 

[A Link In Time]

Vote: Storm

Storm fits the bill of people who are floating under the radar and not game solving. Now he's only posting memes. He could be under an effect opposite to me where he needs to post a meme in every post. Maybe he targeted me last night.

Other people I'm unsure of: Mido for similar activity reasons, Rag for trying to rush Day 1, Rubik for his push on Moe and specifically pushing the theory that Moe could be lying, and Giri for being suspected by Minish.

That's a pretty large swathe of people. Will look into more detail before the day ends.

 

[A Link In Time]

So....do a lot of you guys have finals happening now? This thread is awfully quiet.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I'm content with what I've said for today. Giri is the strongest case by a good margin in my opinion. I'm not interested in lynching storm because others have said this is how they always act and thus I'm taking their behaviour as NAI.

 

[ExLight]

So....do a lot of you guys have finals happening now? This thread is awfully quiet.

Yea, I'll try to do some ISOs today tho

I don't really like some stuff Johnny has been saying, but I need to see some of his past games to see if it's just paranoia.

 

[Johnny Sooshi]

I'll try to give some D2 reads if I can while I'm at work.

 

[funnier6]

Vote Count

Giri (3) - Rag, Pen, sms
Rag (1) - Giri
Storm (1) - ALIT

Not Voting: (6) Doc, Johnny, Mido, Rubik, Ex, Storm

With 11 alive it takes 6 to reach majority. Otherwise day two will end on Thursday, December 5th at 1pm MST.