Ragnarokio
AVATAR NOT BY JIMMU
I feel like giri and storm are kind of easy to mislynch. Of the two I feel like the Giri wagon is a bit more likely to be alignment-indicative because it's supposed to be based on playstyle difference.
To me the case is primarily based on kill analysis. Minish was killed and she was one of the few players who was on Giri's case. Giri lurking isn't alignment indictive to me, and i don't think anyone has said it was. (although SMS said that giri has killed as mafia on the basis of suspicion directed towards them in the past i'm not sure i'd call that a "playstyle difference")
Vote: SMS
SMS feels a bit scummier to me this game. The posts are fewer and the reasoning behind his points are shaky and seem to sheep a bit. I don't think I've seen him organically read anyone in this game yet.
I agree with your evaluation of SMS but i've also had that impression of him in every single game i've played with him, and he's been town in all those games, so I'm not putting any stock in my ability to read him.