Game Thread Night Hut Mafia - The Treacherous Neighborhoods

[kokirion]

Alright.

I have been a tad silent yesterday and this morning. Mostly due to the 24 hour deadlines. If you go to the dentist once you practically lost the day. But I haven't been sitting still, and I've been thinking a lot. Let me present my thoughts.

Mido's death did not give us another dead mafia member, but it did make the rest of the game a bit more straightforward. Either We know for sure that either Deku, Jamie or Libk is scum.
In Pendio's last post he warned of the possibility that Jamie secretly does is scum, but I am not betting on that. Jamie is playing as town as he can play town. Yes, you never know for sure until the roles are revealed, but if Jamie is scum in this game, his game has been so elaborate and fantastic that I will nominate him right away for best mafia member of the year. I just don't believe in it. In every game we have to take a risk, and I am willing to rule Jamie out as possible scum in his neighbourhood. I trust him.

Leaving Libk and Dekunut.
I have already said a lot on day one about Libk. On day 2 I was a bit more silent about him (and about anyone else). I was watching from the sidelines, seeing how the people moved. To be honest, there were some good points made against Mido. I was never completely sold that he was scum, but I didn't think he was town either. I saw multiple conflicting scenarios, multiple possible scum teams. I was fine with a Mido lynch because either he was scum or he would now exclude one of these possibilities.

I have never truly been staring myself blind on Libk, though. I was genuinely suspicious about him on day 1. I will come back on this (with quotes) later, but yesterday and this morning I have entertained myself with other options as well, such as a possible Mido or Deku culprit.

Dekunut certainly fits some of the descriptions of what I would expect from scum: slightly inactive, but not inactive enough to truly be a part of the inactives.
Basically that. Many see Deku now as the main suspect, understandably, and I think he is scummy too, but this is rather due to ruling out other people than an actual case.
This morning I have mainly been thinking about 2 things regarding Dekunut:
- why did Storm die on day 1?
- was his mistake to reply to Pendio this morning genuine or a clever scum tactic?

To discuss the first. It might seem a strange question, but Dekunut and Storm know each other very well, outside the forum even. I have been in a mafia team with them in a far away game, having learned that they know each other in real life. There was time between everyone receiving their roles and the start of the game. If they are teammates I would find it hard to believe that they would never talk about the game. Storm made a vital mistake by opposing to reveal the neighbourhoods. If they were a team, why didn't Deku stop him? Why didn't Deku try to influence Storm in such a way that he would survive day 1? Let's face it. IF Deku has truly made that Pendio-mistake on purpose, then he is a damn good strategist. Wouldn't he then also have been clever enough to notice Storm was heading towards a cliff, and to then have act on that?

The second point. Deku's Pendio-mistake. The question I asked myself here was whether Deku was capable of coming up with this or that it would be in line with a busy warry Deku.
This is more difficult to tell. But I do feel like it is not suuuuper unusual for him to make such a mistake. When he is a townie I feel like he more often drifts off a little bit. Usually coming back later at some point but mwah..... I could "imagine" he did it by mistake. I've never really seen him make such a mistake on purpose, to fool others, though. That does not mean he cannot do it, I just have not seen him doing that before, but it does make it "posssssible" that it was a genuine mistake. If I phrase it differently, there would be plenty of other players in the game that I would not buy it from if it happened to them, but for Dekunut I could see it being a mistake.

Anyway, basically that led me to the following conclusion about Dekunut: if he is scum, and so if this mistake was genuine, it shows terrific play. And knowing his personal connection with Storm, I cannot imagine that he could not have prevented Storm's day 1 play. If he is not scum, that both does make sense.
So I did think about this when actually attempting to read him other than to conclude that he must be scum because Libk seems less scummy and his activity might be scum-like.
These 2 things do not clear him, but they do make me look at Libk again.

 

[kokirion]

What caught my eye today was Libk's quick vote and unvote against Jamie. I found it strange.

This is straight up a lie. You've barely talked in our neighborhood. The only thing you've said in there that was "serious" was that storm is annoying.

Vote: Jamie

Sorry I got excited for a moment xD
Unvote

This was just a mistake, Libk being tired. I believe that.
What I DO find interesting is the eagerness to vote for Jamie when seeing just a tiny tiny crack. All that Libk mistakenly thought was that Jamie said that he talked in his neighbourhood whereas he didn't. My question is whether that would be scummy at all. And if you compare Jamie's town- and scumtells this game, such a tiny tiny scum tell against his doesn't warrant an immediate vote. At most a confrontation with Jamie that what he said was not true.
So why was Libk so eager to vote for Jamie?
To go even further, Libk and Jamie have been on good terms for most of the game. Jamie has openly said multiple times that he has a good feeling about Libk. IF Libk is scum he has amazingly buddied Jamie. But Libk would simultaneously know that Jamie is his enemy, and he will have to dump him then sooner or later. Of course, he would know that dumping Jamie is difficult at the moment. But if Jamie would potentially get lynched, Deku is still a viable option for tomorrow and if Deku would then also get lynched, mafia could finish the game in the night. And keep in mind that mafia has not yet used its astronomer power, an extra nightkill. This could make an endgame much more easy if necessary.
If Libk is scum, his main strategy would be to lynch Deku now. He knows he will be lynched versus Jamie, but that same night Jamie will be nightkilled. Then their last mafia member needs to survive out of 4 peple and that night he/she will finish the game. So the game is really not yet won in favour of the town at the moment. If we don't hit scum today, we will have a thrilling last day.
But if Jamie would die... that would make everything easier. They won't have to nightkill him and Deku is still a possible lynch for tomorrow. And with that astronomer role... they would be in a damn good position.

With that in mind, I found Libk's eagerness to vote for Jamie surprising. Libk so far always made it seem as if he trusted Jamie. And there is so much evidence available to support Jamie's town alignment, why would you target him? And then a tiny tiny tiny crack appears, and bam! Libk put his vote on Jamie.
He says because he was very tired. Yes, exactly. But I wonder if he for a moment allowed himself to play with the idea of a Jamie lynch, and saw his opportunity. Acting without realising he made a mistake. The next day he did, he panicked, and quickly returned to his old strategy.

And looking back at Libk's old posts, I cannot say I find him trustworthy.

He said he never agreed with Storm's opinion to hide the neighbourhoods. But look at these quotes:

****. Guys I was actually on Storm's side with this one and I'm actually really disappointed in how this has gone thus far. Now I don't think we should have kept neighborhoods hidden forever, but I don't think there was need to put the info out quite yet. This game is supposed to be about internal investigation into our huts, and the way I saw it revealing our hut mates makes the internal investigation more difficult. I would have liked to keep that information secret until we hit scum, then the hut mates in that scum's group come forward. But I guess that doesn't matter too much now. Idk. It just seems that we could have used our chats with neighborhood more effectively but now it just seems they are ways to confirm players and now ultimately don't matter as much. It just seems against the flavor of the game and honestly I don't like how quick Jamie was to propose the idea nor that he then did so within an hour into the game and also did so without clearing it with his own hut.

I actually really think this raises a flag. I never said I don't want an easy way to clear players. I even said I thought hut mates should come forward once their scum mate was killed, thus clearing them. By revealing ourselves we've eliminated the need to talk to each other outside of the game thread because now there's really no incentive to.

Also, now mafia are probably more likely to make sure they kill everyone in a hut before they let their scum bud die in a hut to avoid giving information. Where as if we waited to reveal until death of a scum, suddenly we have a bunch of confirmed townies that mafia now have to deal with. I think this works out in their favor more.

You can say what you want but he definitely was in favour of keeping the neighbourhoods hidden. He had more logic to back this up and a better "reason" than Storm, but hey, I wouldn't expect anything different from Libk if he was a mafia member so that is not evidence in favour of him being town.

What I do not understand is why Libk is seen as rather town. Storm was lynched for having practically the same opinion as Libk. Yet everyone agrees Storm was scummy but no one called Libk out on this. Yes, he looked more truthful. But Libk is also not a bad player, of course he can make it look like that.

In my eyes, both Libk and Deku are scummy. But, some things DO NOT add up in the Deku scenario. And in my eyes, Libk-scum makes sense. He was from the beginning against the plan to reveal the neighbourhoods (why??? and I know he later try to give this a reason, but that is all later. Point is, at that time he was against it). He was in favour of NO strategy for the town. Why? How could you prefer no strategy. That really seems like scum trying to obstruct the town. Then he became incredibly close to Jamie when Jamie said he thought Libk was town. And when there is but a tiny tiny fracture in Jamie's arguments he suddenly jumps on it, being a bit too eager to vote for him.

@Jamie . I know that you have seen him as town-leaning till now. You made good points regarding that, but I do urge you to at least consider the possibility that he is scum. Sometimes you just have a gut feeling, but (and I know that from my own experience) it can also blind you from the truth. Often a gut feeling is right but if it is not it can be difficult to see the evidence against it. So I really urge you to reconsider.

Vote: Libk

 

[kokirion]

I am going to make a third post after dinner. I also have been thinking about my own neighbourhood, and who the complete mafia team could consist of. How everything adds up.

 

[kokirion]

A potential solar eclipse approaches! A prediction about its occurrence will be made!

​

I even missed that.
Interesting. So the mafia team is making its move.

 

[Kylo Ken]

Kokirion with the 5th-Demensional chess play.

 

[A Link In Time]

Vote Count 3.1:

Libk - 2 (Jamie, kokirion)

Not voting - DekuNut, Kaio-Kenshin, Libk, Minish_Link, Prophecies About Bok Choy, Ver-go-a-go-go

 

[Libk]

**** I had a feeling that was coming. If prediction isn't finished, and day over, I'll try to reply after work.

 

[A Link In Time]

A solar eclipse has been predicted...​

Spoiler

Correctly!

Day 4 will be skipped!​

 

[Kylo Ken]

WAT

 

[kokirion]

On to my third post.

About my own neighbourhood:
Koki
Bok
Minish
Cslaught/Vergo

Let me comment on all 3 of them. I could've waited with this till the day is near we need to lynch someone in that neighbourhood, but by then we might have lost many other players who are now still in the game. So I want to discuss this with them as well (more than to just hear their opinion).

Throughout this game I have been very suspicious of Bok.
I'll show you why with quotes.

@Cslaught02 has been quiet on all fronts so far, though it could be because he hasn't been on at all. Tagging him hoping he can come give his thoughts before the end of the day.

You're right. But what about your own posts? You spent 2 posts talking about the neighbourhoods, but that's not really actively contributing with your "thoughts". The others are all fluff:

As this my second game I have to say I'm pretty excited for this one as it seems like it's going to be pretty unique and fast paced. Here's hoping I make it farther than last time. Also I think it would be good to reveal who's in which neighbourhood as we will know which 3 groups of people have a mafia member

oh jamie just posted that kek

Gotta agree with Jamie here. If 3 people get knocked off and are town then town knows the final person is Mafia and is one step closer to winning. The Mafia is going to know who's in which town from the start so they already have an advantage there. I imagine they'll be trying to spread out kills between neighbourhoods to try to draw less attention to specific members as well. I guess we could wait until day two to reveal but I don't see what good that'll do either way.

Neighbourhood 2

Bok
Minish Link
Kokirion
Cslaught

I'm going to bed for now

After that most of his posts remained the same:

I was halfway through typing up my post suggesting that we reveal the neighborhoods when Jamie beat me to saying it and I further explained why here.



Most of the discussion has been when I was asleep or working and I haven't been able to post since my last post a few minutes ago. Seeing how the bulk of the discussion I missed has been a back and forth between you and Libk about whether revealing the neighbourhoods was a good idea or not I didn't feel as if I had anything else to add since I already made my stance on the matter clear. If you want to hear my opinion on any specific matters I'd be happy to give it.

this quote was a response to me confronting him with his own contribution. Quite evasive and just an explanation of why he had no time to or did not join the discussion.

Not sure if this is really the place to discuss it but I'm pretty indifferent on the matter as long as I get to choose between which gender I get to play as.

Can't really say I'm too surprised that the kill was from neighbourhood 1 since the three remaining members are confirmed to be non-mafia. I suppose now we should decide which neighbourhood to focus on next. I'll be heading to bed soon but I'll post more thoughts in the morning or more likely when I get off of work tomorrow.

Kinda obvious but yeah..

Going back to Midos third post (which was a response to Dekus post saying how he has no idea how storm could have a read on Libk this early and his first post of substance) I noticed that Mido defended Storm about already having a read on Libk. Though unless there was any neighbourhood chat (which I strongly doubt since it was very early in the game) Libk had not made a single post yet so a read on him that early would be utterly impossible (unless he was scum which he turned out to be). I find the fact that he defended storms baseless read as a little suspicious.



As others have pointed out already, I'm not sure why Mido voted so late in the day when Storm/Tristan already had 5 votes against him and the day was almost over. It does seem like it might of been a last minute attempt to join the bandwagon and gain some town credit after disappearing for most of the day after the first post of his I quoted. Why not vote earlier in the day then? He specifically says that "early red flags lead me to this point, even if he himself did not raise them through his actions." If his earlier actions were what convinced you why vote then instead of when it was already too late for him.



This seems like a last minute attempt to distance himself from Storm possibly pretending that he doesn't know his alignment since Storm was already a sinking ship.

I'm going to post some more thoughts in abit about Mido but based off this and what I'll post shortly I'm getting a feeling that Mido is scum.

Vote Mido

I'd like to hear Dekus thoughts on the matter before the day ends as he is the only one in neighbourhood 3 yet to make a post today

Finally! This was the very first post where you gave your opinion on a relevant matter.
But this was already halfway day 2. Until then you didn't contribute much.
Your vote for (and the arguments) do also seem like a repitition of what others have said before you, but alright, you gave your opinion.

But then this post:

Before the day ends I want to point out that I find it odd that Deku has seemingly sat the day out despite questions directed at him and members of his hood being under scrutiny. If Mido ends up being Mafia then fine, the issue is resolved there but if he ends up flipping town I'll be taking a look at Deku overnight and will be curious as to what he has to say come day 3.

The day did not yet end (right before the end) and he points at Deku.
At first sight, and that was also the original way I was gonna write about this post, this looks like a town tell, he gives his opinion and contributes in a clever way.
But when I thought about it, Deku has been under heavy attacks this day. If Libk is mafia, it was already clear that Jamie would probably not get lynched. That means that either he o Deku would die. So probably the mafia already discussed that Deku would be the next target. The fact that Bok puts his vote on Mido, by his own words on his own will. He says he was genuinely convinced Mido was scum. But just BEFORE Mido died he attacks Deku. But I thought you were convinced Mido was scum, why do you feel the need to suddenly attack Deku right before Mido is dead, unless you already knew Mido's alignment of course.
But perhaps this is just my paranoia and you just genuinely wanted to point this out, I can't tell.

I could see Bok being scum. But one thing does is in his favour, namely that he supported the reveal of the neighbourhoods at the beginning of the game, whereas Storm and Libk did not. That might imply he is town. Or does it mean he thought as a mafia member he really had to disagree with his teammates and so disagreed with them on purpose? But I don't think that is SUPER likely. I will keep watching Bok for now.



On to minish.
My gutfeeling has always been telling me Minish is town, though I admit I have never really had a solid reason for it. I suppose this was because she contributed to the game by giving her opinions, didn't make any (obvious) slip up and was active "enough".
Anyway, like Bok she supported the reveal of the neighbourhoods.
Having reread her posts, what I really like about Minish is that she gave her opinion on so many things, even if that meant she disagreed with other players (and thus potentially risking a confrontation). She was much more contributing and daring in her posts than Bok. She is leaning more towards town for me.

Cslaught/Vergo is also an option. Perhaps the astronomer's power wasn't used because Cslaught was inactive? Vergo hasn't posted anything yet because he is catching up but is it a coincidence that him entering the game and the launch of the solar eclipse coincide? Although there can be thousands of reasons for this. Perhaps the mafia wanted to keep it till they were desperate, perhaps they forgot to use it (or didn't understand how) or very maybe its current launch is even done precisely to frame Vergo?

Anyway. Vergo has not posted much, so I cannot read any of his posts. Let's see what he will do these days. For now I think that probably either Bok or Vergo is scum in my neighbourhood.

Bok/Vergo with Libk/Deku
I'm not gonna judge Bok/Vergo yet till Vergo has contributed a bit. But on the Libk/Deku case, I can imagine both of them to be scum, but as I pointed out I am more suspicious of Libk. That is a risk I am taking.. I can be wrong, but in mafia you HAVE to make bets and I'm willing to make this bet. I am betting on Libk being scum.

 

[Jamie]

What caught my eye today was Libk's quick vote and unvote against Jamie. I found it strange.




This was just a mistake, Libk being tired. I believe that.
What I DO find interesting is the eagerness to vote for Jamie when seeing just a tiny tiny crack. All that Libk mistakenly thought was that Jamie said that he talked in his neighbourhood whereas he didn't. My question is whether that would be scummy at all. And if you compare Jamie's town- and scumtells this game, such a tiny tiny scum tell against his doesn't warrant an immediate vote. At most a confrontation with Jamie that what he said was not true.
So why was Libk so eager to vote for Jamie?
To go even further, Libk and Jamie have been on good terms for most of the game. Jamie has openly said multiple times that he has a good feeling about Libk. IF Libk is scum he has amazingly buddied Jamie. But Libk would simultaneously know that Jamie is his enemy, and he will have to dump him then sooner or later. Of course, he would know that dumping Jamie is difficult at the moment. But if Jamie would potentially get lynched, Deku is still a viable option for tomorrow and if Deku would then also get lynched, mafia could finish the game in the night. And keep in mind that mafia has not yet used its astronomer power, an extra nightkill. This could make an endgame much more easy if necessary.
If Libk is scum, his main strategy would be to lynch Deku now. He knows he will be lynched versus Jamie, but that same night Jamie will be nightkilled. Then their last mafia member needs to survive out of 4 peple and that night he/she will finish the game. So the game is really not yet won in favour of the town at the moment. If we don't hit scum today, we will have a thrilling last day.
But if Jamie would die... that would make everything easier. They won't have to nightkill him and Deku is still a possible lynch for tomorrow. And with that astronomer role... they would be in a damn good position.

With that in mind, I found Libk's eagerness to vote for Jamie surprising. Libk so far always made it seem as if he trusted Jamie. And there is so much evidence available to support Jamie's town alignment, why would you target him? And then a tiny tiny tiny crack appears, and bam! Libk put his vote on Jamie.
He says because he was very tired. Yes, exactly. But I wonder if he for a moment allowed himself to play with the idea of a Jamie lynch, and saw his opportunity. Acting without realising he made a mistake. The next day he did, he panicked, and quickly returned to his old strategy.

And looking back at Libk's old posts, I cannot say I find him trustworthy.

He said he never agreed with Storm's opinion to hide the neighbourhoods. But look at these quotes:




You can say what you want but he definitely was in favour of keeping the neighbourhoods hidden. He had more logic to back this up and a better "reason" than Storm, but hey, I wouldn't expect anything different from Libk if he was a mafia member so that is not evidence in favour of him being town.

What I do not understand is why Libk is seen as rather town. Storm was lynched for having practically the same opinion as Libk. Yet everyone agrees Storm was scummy but no one called Libk out on this. Yes, he looked more truthful. But Libk is also not a bad player, of course he can make it look like that.

In my eyes, both Libk and Deku are scummy. But, some things DO NOT add up in the Deku scenario. And in my eyes, Libk-scum makes sense. He was from the beginning against the plan to reveal the neighbourhoods (why??? and I know he later try to give this a reason, but that is all later. Point is, at that time he was against it). He was in favour of NO strategy for the town. Why? How could you prefer no strategy. That really seems like scum trying to obstruct the town. Then he became incredibly close to Jamie when Jamie said he thought Libk was town. And when there is but a tiny tiny fracture in Jamie's arguments he suddenly jumps on it, being a bit too eager to vote for him.

@Jamie . I know that you have seen him as town-leaning till now. You made good points regarding that, but I do urge you to at least consider the possibility that he is scum. Sometimes you just have a gut feeling, but (and I know that from my own experience) it can also blind you from the truth. Often a gut feeling is right but if it is not it can be difficult to see the evidence against it. So I really urge you to reconsider.

Vote: Libk

I urge you to read my posts again. I actually voted for Libk due to something Deku said.

 

[kokirion]

I urge you to read my posts again. I actually voted for Libk due to something Deku said.

Why the **** am I so damn sloppy this game?? my gooood
in that case I support your decision

 

[Jamie]

Why the **** am I so damn sloppy this game?? my gooood
in that case I support your decision

Yeah, I agree with your assessment that it's more likely to be a town mistake than a mafia mistake, and definitely more likely to be a town mistake than a purposeful scum move. I wouldn't pin Deku as someone who would do that. Personally I'm really careful to never make mistakes like that because I think I could be lynched for some shifty scum move (you would probably do similar things), but Deku has never been that brand of player.

 

[kokirion]

@Jamie
knowing that we're gonna have a double night now, and assuming you are probably gonna be one of the targets..
what is your opinion about my analysis on Bok and Minish. Do you agree/disagree. I trust you the most in this game (except for Kaio but she didn't post much). Especially in case you're about to die, I'd love to hear your contribution to test whether I am seeing the right lines or am heavily skewd there

 

[Jamie]

To be honest I find it weird that they want a double night now given that if Libk isn't scum and then there's 2 consecutive nights the deaths would lead to a DekuNut lynch almost certainly. But I guess at the end of the day, 2 mafia kills is 2 mafia kills, but it does make me feel like they think Libk (scum) is maybe gonna die. Perhaps it was even Libk himself who did it so that he would save his role.

@kokirion Bok being new I can't see him suggesting the neighbourhood reveal right out of the gate as scum. That's a risky thing for scum to do because 1. Being new he might not know if he'd look scummy as a result, and obviously one death to scum is bigger than 1 death to town, and 2. I just can't see him making a big play like that without team approval. Given that storm was against it as well I have a hard time believing Bok is scum, he is much too new to make such a risky play. Only other option is someone who isn't Storm convinced him to do it in their scum chat, and I see that as unlikely. Your points are good but I think it all reflects back to him being new.