MMOs - Are They Going to Die Off Soon?

[LinkIRL]

While I'm strictly a console gamer now, I actually played World of Warcraft for a few years. I stopped a few days before the release of its most recent expansion, Mists of Pandaria. WoW is the top-rated and most successful MMORPG to date. At one point it had over 10 million subscribers. It was an extremely fun game, but once Cataclysm hit I think it lost its shine.

One thing I've noticed with other MMORPGs that attempted to compete with it (Lord of The Rings Online, Warhammer Online, Star Wars: The Old Republic, etc.) is that they generate all this hype and their fans claim it to become the "WoW-Killer", but a few months later they die off and become free-to-play. This has been a recurring pattern in every MMORPG that has come out to compete with WoW, more recently Guild Wars 2. Everyone suddenly re-subs to WoW again and forgets about these other MMOs. This sparked a question/theory in my mind. Are MMOs going to die off soon?

I will never play WoW again, no matter what Blizzard does with it. It's a whopping $15 a month I could save on other things (Like Zelda 3DS and Wii U!). I wonder if a lot of ex-WoW players such as myself feel the same way. If no other MMOs have shone out like World of Warcraft has, does that mean once WoW dies, MMOs will die with it?

My vote is yes. Blizzard has said they won't let WoW go past Level 100. It will die eventually, at least I think. That being said, Blizzard is apparently working on a huge project right now, but I don't think they have confirmed it to be another MMO. If it is, will this "New MMO" revive MMOs altogether? I'd like to know your thoughts. I personally feel that once World of Warcraft dies off, MMO gaming altogether will die with it.

 

[The Joker]

Absolutely not. Saying that MMORPG's are gonna die is like saying that console gaming is gonna die; it's a pipe-dream. It's a popular genre with even more possibilites in the future.

 

[Ventus]

I also noticed the dearth in players in Guild Wars 2; the Beta was totally full and I had to queue for a spot many times, and the game was fairly active on release...but now? I can barely spot a soul. I assume they all went to TOR, but chances are they flocked back to WoW.

All that being said, I think MMOs will continue to thrive for quite a while. Even if the supposed WoW-Killer doesn't come (I think GW2 was it but that's just me...I'm a GW fanboy), I think MMOs will continue to live UNTIL the WoW-Killer finally reaches the market, whenever that will be. :yes:

 

[LinkIRL]

Thanks for your thoughts. I don't know, I guess I feel like MMORPGs will die with WoW because my desire to play an MMORPG died with WoW: Cataclysm. I'm sure they will continue to thrive for a while, but if WoW dies (And I'm highly doubting it will anytime soon with MoP's ratings) and there isn't one that'll take its place, MMOs might be dead for some time.

 

[Man_of_Squid]

I think more and more people are just realizing how most MMORPG's like WoW are becoming a giant version of a Skinner's Box.

 

[LinkIRL]

I think more and more people are just realizing how most MMORPG's like WoW are becoming a giant version of a Skinner's Box.

This will probably sound like a stupid question but what's a Skinner's Box? Hahaha XD

 

[Castle]

Honestly, the way things are heading, I don't see much of a future for video games at all and I am certainly unwilling to invest in the next console cycle. Game makers have become entirely profit driven, not product driven. There has even been a mass exodus of some of the industry's most renowned talent. When the captains are jumping ship you know it's sinking.

When it comes to MMOs however, they are unsustainable. There is only ever room for one major successful MMO at a time that can afford to charge a subscription (i.e. rape its userbase). ATM that MMO is WOW. MMO gamers only have enough time and money to devote to one $15 a month MMO at a time, and even now in our worlds depressed economy time and money are luxuries too many people don't have these days to even devote to one MMO. And I think finally MMO gamers have become tired of the repetitious style of play in WoW and every WoW knockoff and would be cash-in. Even MMOs that have managed to become mildly successful despite WoW's presence in the MMO market, such as Rift and Guild Wars, are drying out. These have done so by presenting themselves as unique and cost effective alternatives to WoW. Yet the userbase continues to decline and MMOs built as subscription based go F2P within a year and dwindle away into obscurity.

Using ToR as a testament to the death of MMOs is baseless, however, IMO. ToR is nothing but a testament to EA and Bioware's arrogance and stupidity. They couldn't make any half decent game if they threw all the money in the world into it.

 

[Austin]

I think it's more that MMOs in the style of WoW will die off. Players don't want to have to **** around for a month doing mindless leveling before they're able to play with their friends. I doubt the concept of an MMO will die off, but I expect them to become more innovative.

When it comes to MMOs however, they are unsustainable. There is only ever room for one major successful MMO at a time that can afford to charge a subscription (i.e. rape its userbase). ATM that MMO is WOW.

This is incorrect, both EVE Online and Rift charge a subscription, and they're doing quite well. I haven't verified this but I've heard that Rift even has more subscribers than WoW.


Also, not strictly on-topic but Mists of Pandaria is pretty great. Much better than Cataclysm was. If I wasn't too lazy to find a good guild I'd still be playing it.

 

[feraldonkey]

It's hard to say when you look at the numbers, a lot of things seem to be dying off in the gaming world. Surely there will be a killer app in the next year that might change the MMORPG genre.

 

[Castle]

This is incorrect, both EVE Online and Rift charge a subscription, and they're doing quite well. I haven't verified this but I've heard that Rift even has more subscribers than WoW.

Okay, so there is maybe only ever room for three MMOs at a time that can afford to financially rape their userbase.

Mincing words doesn't change the fact that few MMOs can compete with the leading competitor, and those that do manage to find alternative means of sustaining themselves. One MMO is enough to saturate the market, but overall MMO subscription and usage numbers are declining. Production costs also factor in.

It's hard to say when you look at the numbers, a lot of things seem to be dying off in the gaming world. Surely there will be a killer app in the next year that might change the MMORPG genre.

MMOs aren't the only thing in desperate need of a killer app, sure. But it's true, WoW has been around for a while now. Old age is what replaced Everquest with WoW. It'll be interesting to see what WoWs real killer app is. Console's sure could use their own killer app. Ouya maybe?

The MMO market might not be as lucrative as it once was, however. But a new leading MMO is what it'll take to revitalize it.

And numbers are never any indication, you're right. Numbers can be rearranged to indicate anything. I look at the number of MMOs that are F2P vs. subscription based vs shutdown and the number of active users over time. Many MMO players indicate they are devoting less time to MMOs and the number of subscription MMOs pale in comparison to the number of MMOs that are F2P (which can still be financially lucrative) and those that have shut their servers down for good.

 

[Moonstone]

I agree with Austin. MMOs are great fun and will be around for a long time- and I don't doubt that they'll always profit... except pay to pay MMOs- which, after a plummet, will also become free to play and then start seeing profit again.

Wow is already making steps toward becoming free to play. Sure, playing free is extremely limited, but they are taking steps in the free to play direction.

 

[Honorable Hero]

MMOs will not die. The free-to-play models with cash shops are extremely successful. Games like Perfect World, Lord of the Rings online, and Dungeons and Dragons Online are all very successful and have many players and good cash flow.

 

[Zorth]

Definitely not, Most likely what will happen is a tiny revolution within MMO gaming once Titan releases in the coming years (Blizzard's not so secret new MMO project). MMO's will most likely have a higher standard set to them, better graphics and most likely even a classic formula that will have many traits which WoW has in order to make it a fun game worth paying for.

The free-to-play models with cash shops are extremely successful.

But that doesn't necessarily make them good, so if everything that would be left of MMO's would be this then to me MMO gaming will be dead because F2P MMO's are just horrible IMO.