The Wii U probably will fail. People keep saying it's too soon, etc...yeah, they said that about the N64, GC, and PS3...all of those consoles were still in last place by the end of the generation. It's not the games. Tbh, I think the Wii U had a better launch than the PS4, but that's just my opinion. Thing is, we know what to expect from Nintendo. There's no anticipation like there is for Sony and MS. I knew and know what games we're going to get from Nintendo before they are announced. I'm sure the next Paper Mario title is in the horizon.
I'll admit, I waited to buy a Wii U because it was too expensive. But the price is lowered and that's that. I'm sure it won't be as bad off at the end as it is now, but I wouldn't expect the Wii U to do well at this rate. Nintendo made a mistake and tried to grab the hardcore audience and, in the process, they neglected their casual and non-gamer audience. Problem is, the hardcore audience doesn't like Nintendo and the non-gamer and casual audience doesn't HAVE to have a system.
I'm not hating on the Wii U or anything...actually, I think it has the potential to be my favorite gaming console of all time! But from a business standpoint, I think Nintendo made a mistake. They should have upgraded the Wii and expanded the motion controls. The hardcore gamers are going to stick to the hardcore gaming companies. Some of the non-gamers and casuals will sit out this gen. The other non-gamers will go for the Xbox One for Kinect (those that aren't turned off by the M-rated games or creeped out by it) The loyal casuals will stick with Nintendo, sure, but they just aren't enough.
Actually, I think Microsoft made the same mistake. They tried to force the Kinect down everyone's throat to grab the casual and non-gamer market, but ended up pissing off the hardcore gamers because of it. The only reason they aren't totally screwed is because Nintendo made the same mistake and left some non-gamers and casuals for Microsoft to grab.