Have always been iffy on this. Never sure if it's bad enough to warrant this type of move, but I haven't seen much counterproductive play from DH. I don't believe he's done anything serious to really give the impression he's capable of denting the game simply with his playstyle. I'd say that, even on just the first day (because the odds can have a way of slipping right out from under you), it's more of an asset to keep him alive at this point than kill him off already. Not to mention I feel like this is just a bandwagon stigma rather than actually anything worth an amount of merit.
Plus, I remember you saying something earlier about leaning against towards my side with Axle being scum. I'd say, taking into account the minimal threat (which I have already explained), it would be better to go with the suspected target rather than this route.
Well, you are right in that I had been leaning toward siding with you regarding your theory about Axle and Draco, especially since the latter is acting very skittish. That said, one of Axle's most recent posts in which he cited similar occurrences from past games has swayed me back to the center - I'm now considerably less confident that he is scum, and am as of writing more receptive to keeping him alive at this juncture, if only because I remain unconvinced of his alignment but find the pros of leaving him alive if he is a townie greater than the potential cons of leaving him alive if he is a mafia. I also think that his true colors will be revealed with the results of whatever night actions take place tomorrow, as well as the role of whoever gets lynched today (assuming somebody does, and assuming that he is not the one lynched) - I think it will be far easier to determine if Axle is scum or not with a little bit more information.
That said, I voted for Darknut because erratic finger pointing at anyone who happens to point their finger in his direction is counterproductive, as the vast majority of accusations made -PARTICULARLY during Day 1, when we have little tactical analysis to discuss - are going to be townie on townie. Concentrated pressure is the best way to get results, and slinging accusations everywhere just because a few people happen to suspect you is counter to that goal.
Know this though: my vote is not final. I only vote when I feel confident that the player's death will aid the town in some way, but it does not mean that I think that is the ONLY course of action we should take. If, during continued discussion, Axle's further defense (or lack thereof) rings more suspicious, I will gladly switch my vote. I am not married to the idea of lynching Darknut, though from my interpretation of events right now it's the best course of action until we have the results of night actions to shed more light on Axle's alignment, since right now I find it more likely that it's a case of Axle's typical playstyle and Draco's inexplicable skittishness rather than a scum tell.
This is what I've been thinking out and suggest:
1. Axle gets lynched today (like I said, pretty damn sure he's scum)
2. Cop would preferably hit up on Draco during the night phase (Provided Axle is scum, and I feel like, considering he is one of the more active players, it would be detrimental to us if he does turn out to flip town. This is why I believe it would be better to get the information from a cop investigation instead of heading straight towards him. Plus, in the event of my death tonight (if something so unfortunate were to happen =( ), it would be best to know what's going on in case of an attempt at townie incrimination (i.e. nightkilling me to frame Draco when he actually isn't mafia))
3. Vig would preferably hit an inactive - townie or not, they truly can be more detrimental to the game. Even more so than one who plays badly - as DH is being accused of. There's simply no way to ever tell, and it's easy for mafia to pick them off at the end. I'd suggest Jedizora for this due to the fact he's my most heavily suspected one among the group, so I feel like we have a very good chance of hitting mafia there and getting rid of a bad problem altogether.
4. Doc can do whatever he wants... I'd suggest protecting me cause I really don't want to die, but in the event of a strongman... well we don't know whether or not that strongman would be capable of not only breaking through protection - but also killing the protector. That would be bad. I feel like I have less a chance of dying after bringing up the Draco incrimination thing, too, just in case that were to happen, in which event I think we know who you'd really want to go after - TheMasterSword.
So, looking ahead, yeah. Right on.
The advantages of having Axle on the town's side far outweigh the potential losses of leaving a scum Axle alive for one extra day. We should strategically execute night actions to gather more information on Axle before making a determination. I would advocate the following course of action:
1. Draco or Darknut gets lynched today. We could lynch the former because your confidence in Axle's alignment is due in part to a perceived partnership between Draco and Axle brought on by Draco's quick jumping to Axle's defense despite randomly voting for him earlier; if you are confident in Axle's alignment, it stands to reason that Draco would be equally as sure to be scum as Axle; additionally, Draco's alignment would shed light on Axle's alignment given your reasoning for suspecting Axle - if Draco turns out to be mafia, then we can rest assured that Axle is almost certainly mafia as well. Conversely, if Draco turns out to be a townie who happened to be a bit too skittish and ended up looking suspicious, then we can be a bit more lax toward Axle. And of course, we could lynch the latter for my aforementioned reasoning.
2. Have a cop investigate Axle - self explanatory.
3. Vig (assuming there is one; they're not usually an assured role in games I've played) still hits an inactive. I'm not sure exactly why you particularly suspect Jedizora (maybe I missed that), but any inactive would do.
4. Doc still does whatever he wants.
Now there would be a few potential outcomes of tonight that I can foresee:
A - The Mafia hit you, and our lynch vote for tomorrow becomes exceedingly obvious.
B - The Mafia hit you, but the cop investigation for Axle comes back innocent. This would likely be a case of the mafia attempting to knock you off and frame Axle, perhaps hoping you might be the cop. In this case, our lynch vote for tomorrow becomes murkier but we have gained a powerful ally for the town.
C - The Mafia hit you but you are saved by the doctor, and no night kill happens and we can turn to the cop result.
D - The Mafia hit a random player - this is always a possibility regrettably, and doesn't really give us much to go on, which is why they do it. But we would still have the cop result to go on.
E - The Mafia get super lucky and knock off the cop, in which case we're out of luck.
F - The Mafia knock off an innocent Axle, just to screw with us and cast some doubt on you, though not much, as it wouldn't make sense for you to have killed Axle after publicly campaigning for his lynching.
G - The Mafia hit the doctor, making the cop fear for his life and thus be less likely to come forward and share the result, meaning that, once again, we're out of luck.
So just from these potential outcomes, we have clear courses of action from five of seven possibilities - I think we stand to gain a lot more by leaving Axle alive on the chance that he isn't scum - something I'm not convinced of given his playstyle's congruency with his prior playstyle - and thus gaining a powerful town ally than we do to gain by lynching him on the chance that he is scum and potentially losing an ally.
BUT AGAIN - this could all change.
So this has been a really long post, let me sum up my thoughts for my sake as much as everybody else's: While I do not trust Axle, I am also not convinced he is scum, and think that we stand to benefit a lot more by leaving him alive one day at least while we gather more information. As such, while my recommendation is that we kill Darknut due to jumpy finger pointing and general danger to the town (voting to shorten the day), I also see the benefit in killing Draco to shed more light on Axle's potential allegiance. This is all heavily subject to change, but as the game stands now, these are pretty much all of my thoughts in a massive brain dump post.
