Fullmetal Alchemist: Brotherhood - Mafia Game Thread

[Raindrop14]

Okay, here is the current vote tally, and a little massage for everyone.

First, tally.

4 - Axle the Beast (PokaLink, Violet, Durion, Kybyrian)
1 – Violet (GirlWithAFairy)
1 – Shorter Day (Darknut_Hunter)
1 - Durion (Jedizora)
1 - Kybyrian (Dracomajora)
1 – Day ending on November 21st (TheMasterSword)

So the note then. Violet has told me she will be inactive from now until the 21st of November. The day ends as scheduled, on 11/24/2012 at 11:00PM ET. If we ended it earlier (I'm talking to you two, DH and TMS) Vio would unfortunately not get a lot of time to play, perhaps not even any. Please continue.

 

[Kirino]

Honestly, Draco, the way you're acting just pushes the scum sense I'm getting from you even more. Quick to vote on me when I could have very well just been utilizing a pressure technique... quick to become harsh and condescending. I wouldn't say you're acting town yourself. It only strengthens the feeling I get that you and Axle are both a part of the same team, and that you're not a very experienced player as scum. You tend to fall into patterns.

At the time the game was slow. I was ready to vote for just about anyone that has some evidence to get the game going. Your post was suspicious, so I voted for you. Here's the difference between what you and Durion did. Durion pointed back to his previous posts and gave a reason as to why he voted, and kinda had a point. You on the other hand, made your accusations out of nowhere and bandwagoned. That was suspicious. So I voted. And no offense, but you're not very calm yourself. You accused me harshly, so I responded somewhat harshly.

And how are you so sure of yourself with such little evidence? You talk like you're sure that i'm Mafia. Your accusation is really just one of the many possible explanations for my behavior, which I already explained. Calling me Mafia is making a pretty large assumption.

Anyways, Garo made some interesting points. I noticed Darknut Hunter's posts earlier, before this whole fiasco, but at the time it was understandable, as nothing was happening. But now, when we have actual evidence and things are actually happening, I don't know why he would want the day to be shorter. That wouldn't let us have as much discussion, which would usually be a good thing for the Mafia.

FoS: Darknut Hunter

 

[Kybyrian]

And how are you so sure of yourself with such little evidence? You talk like you're sure that i'm Mafia. Your accusation is really just one of the many possible explanations for my behavior, which I already explained. Calling me Mafia is making a pretty large assumption.

What is mafia but a game of chance when it comes down to the barebone results? I have my suspicions and my reasons for them, and I haven't topped them with anything else thus far.

 

[dur.i.am]

My random vote wasn't me trying to take suspicion off myself. It was completely seperate from my conversation with you. It was just another random vote. I was making tons of random votes to get the game going.

I'll answer this with another quote from yourself...

Why are you trying to find an ulterior motive in a random vote?

Basically, you've just said that no one should be trying to find an ulterior motive in a random vote, yet you plan on trying to get the game going by handing them out all over the place. I think it's safe to say that most people realise that there is nothing to find in a random vote, so to be fair to Wyatt, you then start thinking "Why is he acting like this?". One of the possible conclusions is that you are trying to confuse the town early on. However, if you were to get lynched for it then people start to think that maybe you voted for an ally in the hopes that people would then think "If he's mafia, that means the people he voted for aren't his allies". Some people use voting for an ally as a sort of fail safe to protect their allies. It's not something I believe right now, but it is something that could be very possible and I can see why Wyatt thinks what he does.

EBWODP

Ignoring everything else that is going on (I think there are salient points being made on both sides, and I'm not sure where I fall yet), I find this monstrously telling. I'm not sure why you're campaigning for a shorter day so vehemently when there is interesting and potentially revealing discussion going on that gives us somewhere to go. Why would you want to cut our discussion short, unless you're itching to get to the night phase where the mafia can make their move and knock off a townie?

I don't necessarily think you're scum, but your insistence to shorten the day and move to a night phase with (assuming I'm reading your posts correctly) no lynch is sending off all kinds of alarm bells.

FoS: Darknut_Hunter

I don't see why you would want each day to last for 288 hours. I've seen several games die because people have become bored because the day is 144 hours long. It causes games to break down and once again we'd have another game where a faction has won, usually the mafia, because of inactivity on the other factions behalf. Thus, the mafia want to day to last as long as possible so there is a big group of inactive people to blend in with. I think it's a more sensible to conclude that a longer day is a mafia ideal.

 

[Kirino]

I'll answer this with another quote from yourself...



Basically, you've just said that no one should be trying to find an ulterior motive in a random vote, yet you plan on trying to get the game going by handing them out all over the place. I think it's safe to say that most people realise that there is nothing to find in a random vote, so to be fair to Wyatt, you then start thinking "Why is he acting like this?". One of the possible conclusions is that you are trying to confuse the town early on. However, if you were to get lynched for it then people start to think that maybe you voted for an ally in the hopes that people would then think "If he's mafia, that means the people he voted for aren't his allies". Some people use voting for an ally as a sort of fail safe to protect their allies. It's not something I believe right now, but it is something that could be very possible and I can see why Wyatt thinks what he does.

If you're talking about my random vote on Axle, then I get what you're saying, and it makes sense. If it was a serious vote, that would be a perfectly logical conclusion to make, but nobody would think that a person wasn't my ally just because I random voted them once in the beginning of the game, and I would most certainly not expect any smart player to come to that conclusion. By that logic, everyone I random voted for could be mafia, but that is highly unlikely. The only thing that makes Axle more likely than anyone else I random voted for is that I defended him, but that was for a completely seperate and logical reason that I already explained multiple times.

Actually, thank you for clearing that up, as I was confused. But like I said, I wouldn't expect anyone to take a random vote seriously, so I definetly wouldn't use one to convince people of anything.

 

[Ronin]

Kyby's meta is intriguing. He doesn't seem to read entire responses toward him; rather he selects slithers of paragraphs and makes statements based on them. Not necessarily a scummy/suspicious way of playing the game, yet I found it interesting enough to note. As far as I can recall, this is the first game I've been in with him and seen him play like this. Again, if memory serves right, he usually hangs back and doesn't press claims very much. When he did this it turned out he was Mafia in the end.

Of course, that's prone to change in this round, especially since I've also marked that Kyby uses abstract phrasing [chiefly when spoken directly to]. Subtly connects itself to deception in this game, which can go either Town or Mafia's way. I'm not sure what to make of this side of Kyby's playstyle quite yet since it's new to me.


As for the dateline shortening, it might do more harm than good. It'd put more pressure on us to reach a consummate lynch, but there's the off-chance that a Townie might take the hit. With ten more days to go, we could find a scummy suspect; but the same can also be accomplished in seven days. So it's possible (howbeit not 100% probably) that it can happen.

 

[Kybyrian]

Aside from my two main suspicions, I'd like to tap on a few others. Notably Fig, zelda_geek, PK Flash, Jedizora, and MonkeyFightSquad, two of which expressed an interest in getting the game rolling but have been reserved otherwise (with only one post at that - Jedizora, MonkeyFightSquad). The remaining three have had no posts at all. I'm willing to bet by the experience I see among the group, at least 2 of them are mafia hanging back.

 

[Jedizora]

I've been looking through this thread, and I don't really see any reason to vote for Axle. I mean, there is nothing to go on for him. Right now we have PokaLink, Violet, Durion, and Kybyrian voting for him. Pokalink and Violet were RVS.
I can't really tell why Durion is voting for Axle. Possibly I missed the explanation.
I will admit, something seems off about axles statement

Your best bet is to leave me alive for most of the game and kill me before it ends.

But that could mean he has a power role. I doubt he would said that if he was mafia.
I'll stick with my vote on Durion for now.

 

[Garo]

I don't see why you would want each day to last for 288 hours. I've seen several games die because people have become bored because the day is 144 hours long. It causes games to break down and once again we'd have another game where a faction has won, usually the mafia, because of inactivity on the other factions behalf. Thus, the mafia want to day to last as long as possible so there is a big group of inactive people to blend in with. I think it's a more sensible to conclude that a longer day is a mafia ideal.

When there is discussion and activity happening, a longer day will always be better for the town as it fosters discussion which, even if no lynch is reached, leads to a greater potential for scum tells. More discussion will never hurt the town. Further, ending the day earlier will not do anything to alleviate any concerns of inactivity; it will only launch the game into the night phase, where no activity whatsoever will take place for 24 hours (maybe? it's usually 24 where I've played in the past) - that's not going to cause people to suddenly become active.

Unless there is no discussion happening, then ending the day earlier will do absolutely nothing good for the town, and may very well harm it. I hasten to add that where I have played in the past, there were no set limits on days, and they would only end when a lynch vote majority (or no lynch majority) was reached.

 

[Kybyrian]

But that could mean he has a power role. I doubt he would said that if he was mafia.
I'll stick with my vote on Durion for now.

Or rather he may be more quick to say that if he's Mafia. I don't think you have very good logic there. It could easily go either way.

Also interesting how you tend to show up right after I mention your name in the line of suspicion, especially so when you're commenting only briefly on the same discussion we've been having for the past few days.

 

[Johnny Sooshi]

Arguing for a shorter day does not help the town, it just cuts discussion short. If you want to keep it from being inactive I'd advise you pester players outside of the game who aren't posting in this thread to do so. Even still, the game is active enough; other than you and TheMasterSword I haven't seen anybody insisting that this game is dangerously inactive or anything of the sort. Since you two both seem to be pushing the shortening of the day, something which can only hurt the town, I'm going to extend my FoS.

FoS: TheMasterSword

Well I stand by what I think is smart. Meanwhile your targeting me and TheMasterSword as an FoS while not FoSing Durion who is of the same opinion as both of us. I think that's rather biased towards one party. That right there sets off some alarms in my own head. Whether the day is going to end early or not, by your standards anyone who votes an early end is, or at least could be, scum. So far only 3 people (me, TheMasterSword, and Durion) have expressed such an interest. 3 People out of 21 and you're going to make a scum call on two but not the third? That's got bad feels about it.

Meanwhile I still have suspicions on the others. The way the dialogue between Kybyrian and Axle is going, I'd almost say that they're planning something together. The responses have this kind of feel for me. It's not uncommon for fellow mafia members to coordinate against each other in a game in order to stir up confusion.

I'd also like to leave this with one final note on FoSing. The term itself is a blatant way of warning the other person that you may vote for them. To me it seems to be more of a way to paint a target on yourself than anything. It says "Look, I don't trust you, and I want to vote for you, but I want to watch you for a bit more." It carries not weight and deals no actual threat other than a false warning. I don't really throw around FoSes because of this. In a previous mafia game (See Mafia 11: Xcution Mafia) I lost because I had the chance to Roleblock the Godfather (at the time I had a suspicion and wanted to confirm it) and instead ended on a default vote due to FoSing earlier. Overall I try to stay away from FoSing and I just trust my instincts.

 

[Garo]

Well I stand by what I think is smart. Meanwhile your targeting me and TheMasterSword as an FoS while not FoSing Durion who is of the same opinion as both of us. I think that's rather biased towards one party. That right there sets off some alarms in my own head. Whether the day is going to end early or not, by your standards anyone who votes an early end is, or at least could be, scum. So far only 3 people (me, TheMasterSword, and Durion) have expressed such an interest. 3 People out of 21 and you're going to make a scum call on two but not the third? That's got bad feels about it.

Except that nowhere has Durion formalized an attempt to shorten the day. Earlier in the thread he mentioned that he thinks days should be shortened as a general rule, but nowhere has he advocated that we bring this day, in this game, to an early end. I do not find somebody musing generally about the relative value of keeping days longer and whether it benefits the mafia or the town, but I do find people actively trying to get the day shortened - particularly when there is valuable discussion taking place - suspicious.

Meanwhile I still have suspicions on the others. The way the dialogue between Kybyrian and Axle is going, I'd almost say that they're planning something together. The responses have this kind of feel for me. It's not uncommon for fellow mafia members to coordinate against each other in a game in order to stir up confusion.

I find this possibility unlikely, though not impossible. Bussing is not a particularly sound strategy when employed in this way; neither Axle or Kybyrian were under any particular kind of fire until Kybyrian cast his vote for Axle. Both of them are experienced enough (based on the previous games that I've read through) to avoid bussing unless one of them were under suspicion or in some sort of danger. But since that is not the case, I find it far more likely that either one of them is scum, or both are townies and Kybyrian just happened to have misread Axle's statement. That said, I am very much inclined at the moment to support Kybyrian's theory, if only because Draco's actions are rather shifty. At any rate, I am well below the level of confidence I would like to be at before casting any votes.

I'd also like to leave this with one final note on FoSing. The term itself is a blatant way of warning the other person that you may vote for them. To me it seems to be more of a way to paint a target on yourself than anything. It says "Look, I don't trust you, and I want to vote for you, but I want to watch you for a bit more." It carries not weight and deals no actual threat other than a false warning. I don't really throw around FoSes because of this. In a previous mafia game (See Mafia 11: Xcution Mafia) I lost because I had the chance to Roleblock the Godfather (at the time I had a suspicion and wanted to confirm it) and instead ended on a default vote due to FoSing earlier. Overall I try to stay away from FoSing and I just trust my instincts.

That's not what an FoS says, actually, at least when I say it. In this case, it says "I find your actions suspicious" - nothing more. I never, ever vote for a person unless I am confident that their death will result in a benefit for the town. Voting for players before that point increases the odds of a speedlynch before I can reach that point where I am confident. Until I am confident, I will toss an FoS at parties whom I find are acting strangely in a potentially anti-Town manner. It is a formal way of expressing my suspicions.

 

[Johnny Sooshi]

Except that nowhere has Durion formalized an attempt to shorten the day. Earlier in the thread he mentioned that he thinks days should be shortened as a general rule, but nowhere has he advocated that we bring this day, in this game, to an early end. I do not find somebody musing generally about the relative value of keeping days longer and whether it benefits the mafia or the town, but I do find people actively trying to get the day shortened - particularly when there is valuable discussion taking place - suspicious.

Valid point. I see it from your point of view but I tend to agree more with Durion. In a previous game I lost due to fellow town inactivity and I do not want to see this happen here as well.

I find this possibility unlikely, though not impossible. Bussing is not a particularly sound strategy when employed in this way; neither Axle or Kybyrian were under any particular kind of fire until Kybyrian cast his vote for Axle. Both of them are experienced enough (based on the previous games that I've read through) to avoid bussing unless one of them were under suspicion or in some sort of danger. But since that is not the case, I find it far more likely that either one of them is scum, or both are townies and Kybyrian just happened to have misread Axle's statement. That said, I am very much inclined at the moment to support Kybyrian's theory, if only because Draco's actions are rather shifty. At any rate, I am well below the level of confidence I would like to be at before casting any votes.

I'm not anywhere closed to voting either. I'd like to see a few more posts before I make a decision, if any.

That's not what an FoS says, actually, at least when I say it. In this case, it says "I find your actions suspicious" - nothing more. I never, ever vote for a person unless I am confident that their death will result in a benefit for the town. Voting for players before that point increases the odds of a speedlynch before I can reach that point where I am confident. Until I am confident, I will toss an FoS at parties whom I find are acting strangely in a potentially anti-Town manner. It is a formal way of expressing my suspicions.

Again, I see your point, but I have my own way of looking at things.

 

[Pen]

For the time being Axle clearly has the most votes. To me it seems almost as if some of those who want to shorten the day want Axle dead. I'd like to keep the day's length as it is and maybe lynch Axle later in the game (unless he is proven innocent somehow before that). That way we can get some help from him before he dies, if he's a townie. However, we mustn't forget to lynch him towards the end, because if he is in fact a mafioso he is a great threat to us.

 

[zack125]

For the time being Axle clearly has the most votes. To me it seems almost as if some of those who want to shorten the day want Axle dead. I'd like to keep the day's length as it is and maybe lynch Axle later in the game (unless he is proven innocent somehow before that). That way we can get some help from him before he dies, if he's a townie. However, we mustn't forget to lynch him towards the end, because if he is in fact a mafioso he is a great threat to us.

It seems to me like your pushing to get Axle out of the way just because he's an experienced player. What if we lynched him and he turned out be be a townie, how would you feel then?