Game Thread ExLight's Custom Role Mafia - ENDGAME [TOWN WINS]

[SoulAdvent]

Vote: numbers

Ok why not rag

 

[KingofDominaria]

Vote: Rag

Rome can burn.

 

[Ragnarokio]

we currently have 7 players alive, presumably including 2 mafia and myself

if we lynch me today and mafia NKs a town tonight tomorrow will be LyLo with 3 town and 2 mafia.
if we lynch mafia today and mafia NKs town tonight, tomorrow will be LyLo with 3 town, 1 self, and 1 mafia
if we lynch town today and mafia NKs town tonight, tomrrow will be LyLo with 2 town, 1 self, and 2 mafia

in the event that I'm anti-town, in order to win the game (barring mechanical shenanigans) town needs to lynch mafia twice in a row, and then me at any point. Lynching me first is probably optimal since it maximizes the chance of hitting mafia on the next two days.

In the event that I'm telling the truth about the survivor wincon town needs to lynch mafia today or tomorrow, plus another day. Lynching me puts town in LyLo without gaining them anything, and so is probably a very bad play.

If you're unsure if i'm survivor or anti-town you can hedge your bets by first lynching mafia twice and then if the game isn't over lynching me. This is marginally worse in the event that i am anti-town since it means town needs to try and lynch mafia with a 1:3 ratio and then a 1:4 ratio instead of a 2:5 ratio and then a 1:3 ratio, but increases the chance of winning significantly in the event that I'm not anti-town.

also i thought i was voting KoD already

Vote: KoD

 

[ExLight]

Votecount 4.2.

15377 (2) - Mint Elv, Seanzie
Ragnarokio (2) - SoulAdvent, KingOfDominaria
KingOfDominaria (1) - Ragnarokio
Not voting (2) - 15377, Boo

Phase ends on May 8th, at 9:00:00 PM (GMT-3).
DEADLINE COUNTDOWN

 

[Ragnarokio]

its also unclear how a 1:1:1 lylo would resolve. If town or me was lynched mafia wins the following night, but if mafia was lynched it leaves me and town alive and if town can't win with me that presumably results in either a draw or my win depending on what my win con or abilities are. If i had something like a one-shot kill that i've saved or an extra vote that i haven't cast then I could break parity. Town could also presumably win if they had unclaimed actions which could break parity.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I guess another legitimate concern is that my wincon is something that could trigger as early as tonight. As claimed I should have at least 3 and as many as 4 zombies currently. (for the record, I have 3, i didn't raise last night). My wincon could be having my zombies plus me outnumber living players, in which case if i actually did raise last night and also raised tonight then i could win right then. I don't know how likely people feel that kind of scenario is but it makes hedging slightly worse by however likely it is and then lynching me today better by the same amount

I'm clearly biased, but I still think that from a neutral perspective the town's best shot at winning is hedging their bets and lynching mafia today.

 

[Mint Elv]

Ok why not rag

Because I believe lynching mafia should come before the indep.

Mafia would love to have us possibly waste a lynch on an indep rather than them since it gives them a better chance of outnumbering town.

If you’re confused by why I asked who is opposed To lynching rag it’s because Min said she would not let us lynch the indep today. Now idk if that’s why she was nightkilled, but it’s just something interesting to note.

If majority wants to lynch rag then I can’t stop them. I understand both ends.

I personally rather lynch mafia today and then worry about Rag a different day. But I can see people not wanting to risk rag having an anti town wincon or siding with mafia.

 

[SoulAdvent]

Because I believe lynching mafia should come before the indep.

Mafia would love to have us possibly waste a lynch on an indep rather than them since it gives them a better chance of outnumbering town.

If you’re confused by why I asked who is opposed To lynching rag it’s because Min said she would not let us lynch the indep today. Now idk if that’s why she was nightkilled, but it’s just something interesting to note.

If majority wants to lynch rag then I can’t stop them. I understand both ends.

I personally rather lynch mafia today and then worry about Rag a different day. But I can see people not wanting to risk rag having an anti town wincon or siding with mafia.

If Rag wins the following night, she will leave the game anyway (from what I understand of their role, at least?)

If we mislynch today we lose. We lynch rag, and hopefully get a check in through.

 

[Mint Elv]

If Rag wins the following night, she will leave the game anyway (from what I understand of their role, at least?)

If we mislynch today we lose. We lynch rag, and hopefully get a check in through.

Mafia and town wincons both say to eliminate all threats. There is no guarantee that rag will leave the game or win until both sides are dead.

 

[KingofDominaria]

This sounds like a problem.




For someone else.

 

[KingofDominaria]

Man.

Alright, excepting Seanzie, who wants to ask me any one thing? Anything at all.

No secrets.

I pinky promise.

 

[KingofDominaria]

I'm just going to lay down and wait.

I'm fine.

 

[15377]

Man.

Alright, excepting Seanzie, who wants to ask me any one thing? Anything at all.

No secrets.

I pinky promise.

What's your role son?

 

[SoulAdvent]

Mafia and town wincons both say to eliminate all threats. There is no guarantee that rag will leave the game or win until both sides are dead.

So you would rather risk lynching Town than getting at least the check potentially through and lynching Mafia/Independent?

 

[Mint Elv]

So you would rather risk lynching Town than getting at least the check potentially through and lynching Mafia/Independent?

So you think that numbers is potentially town?