Game Thread Breath of the Wild Mafia

[A Link In Time]

@funnier6 There isn't much to quote, considering he has barely any posts. I said what I needed to - his posts are very few and he doesn't have much going for him other than casing Tristan, which turned out to be a mislynch, so I want to focus there on the wagon for now.

 

[Kirino]

I don't think pushing Tristan's lynch is a good reason for suspecting All Might; if anything, I think it's unlikely that a Mafia member would push so strongly for a town lynch and draw so much attention to himself.

To me it is very unlikely that both the mafia and a probable SKs kills would both go awry and this flavor seems to give the reason why.

What makes the existence of an SK probable?

If you happen to know that your action definitely went through and that this theory isn’t true it’d be helpful if you could subtly mention it.

This is a pretty suspicious request. Confirming the existence of a lightning rod isn't worth revealing a town PR.

 

[funnier6]

What makes the existence of an SK probable?

All of Pendios games have one, in fact nearly all ZD games do.

This is a pretty suspicious request. Confirming the existence of a lightning rod isn't worth revealing a town PR.

Considering it’s a role madness game I don’t see what difference it would make since it doesn’t take a role claim to say that you happen to know it wasn’t a lightning rod.

 

[A Link In Time]

I don't think pushing Tristan's lynch is a good reason for suspecting All Might; if anything, I think it's unlikely that a Mafia member would push so strongly for a town lynch and draw so much attention to himself.



What makes the existence of an SK probable?



This is a pretty suspicious request. Confirming the existence of a lightning rod isn't worth revealing a town PR.

Who is your first paragraph in reference to?

As for All Might, I am less suspicious of him now than on Day 1 after looking back at MHA. There he spent an enormous amount of time speculating about characters and set-up. Here he is more focused on the game and trying to figure things out. I want to see where he goes now that Tristan is lynched.

 

[Pen]

Day 2 Current Vote Tally:
All Might - 1 (Flora)
Kirino - 1 (A Link In Time)
Spiritual Mask Salesman - 1 (funnier6)

Not voting - PancakeSamurai, Sadia, YIGAhim, Spiritual Mask Salesman, Kirino, All Might, Rubik, Minish_Link, kokirion

With 12 players alive it takes 7 for a majority lynch. Otherwise the day ends on Sunday, July 29th 2018 at 7:00 PM EST. Countdown: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20180729T19&p0=43&msg=End+of+Day+2&font=slab&csz=1

 

[Ronin]

Considering that so many people targeted funnier last night, the Lightning Rod thesis isn't too farfetched. I'd wager that there's a JoaT-type role or maybe even a Dreaming God (someone who can affect the weather and disrupt the other roles). If that's the case, then the Doc most likely protected funnier.

 

[Lily]

I agree with funnier, a subtle mention of storms in your post would be enough for me to believe in a lightning rod. The first person to post today claims it.

As for @A Link In Time …

My initial thoughts were based off intuition, but Tristan's death pushed him forward for me. I did notice something else slightly suspicious Day 1. I'm not so skilled at quoting this particular event, but maybe someone else can find it? While the All Might and Tristan wagons filled, it was slightly ahead in All Might's favor. But kokirion put in his vote of Tristan to tie it up, afterwards he said something about Tristan and two others went crazy swapping their votes. I guess I also chose All Might due to the fact kokirion might have been trying to tie it up to force a No Lynch and save All Might, then the town finished Tristan?

 

[A Link In Time]

Considering that so many people targeted funnier last night, the Lightning Rod thesis isn't too farfetched. I'd wager that there's a JoaT-type role or maybe even a Dreaming God (someone who can affect the weather and disrupt the other roles). If that's the case, then the Doc most likely protected funnier.

Hmm? It's certainly possible, and I could see him hinting at it if that is the case. Also, if there is a lightning rod, then yeah, the doctor would have protected them. Though I still remain a bit skeptical as the lightning rod is an uncommon role.

So, All Might, what are your current reads?

 

[A Link In Time]

I agree with funnier, a subtle mention of storms in your post would be enough for me to believe in a lightning rod. The first person to post today claims it.

As for @A Link In Time …

My initial thoughts were based off intuition, but Tristan's death pushed him forward for me. I did notice something else slightly suspicious Day 1. I'm not so skilled at quoting this particular event, but maybe someone else can find it? While the All Might and Tristan wagons filled, it was slightly ahead in All Might's favor. But kokirion put in his vote of Tristan to tie it up, afterwards he said something about Tristan and two others went crazy swapping their votes. I guess I also chose All Might due to the fact kokirion might have been trying to tie it up to force a No Lynch and save All Might, then the town finished Tristan?

I looked back right now, and kokirion voted Tristan and then asked Sadia who she wanted to vote for with a potential tie lurking ahead. I think it was pretty weird to ping Sadia and ask her specifically as those were the last posts kokirion made for the day, but I could be reading too much into it. That said, kokirion reading me, Tristan, and funnier as a scum team bothers me more today now that Tristan has flipped town.

 

[Rubik]

What do you think about my answer? Matter of fact what are your thoughts on anything?

Seems less likely than the doc hitting correctly. I doubt we have doc + bodyguard + lightning rod in a single setup (and if we did, scum would probably have a strongman to get through it or something), otherwise that's too much protection.

It IS possible that scum has a delayed kill or something, though. That seems a lot more likely to me. Less likely than the simple doc scenario unless we see 2+ kills tomorrow, though.

-

I think All Might's posting pattern was pretty town yesterday and I think you going up to bat for him and then being a swing vote in a wagon that hit town weirdly enough made you look more town in the way that you did it. I've got a pretty good vibe from the two of you, although it's hardly a sure thing.

I still kind of want to either pressure or kill ALiT, though.

Vote: A Link in Time

Minish also feels kind of absent atm, idk if that's a scum pattern or not, though.

FoS: Minish Link

 

[Ronin]

Hmm? It's certainly possible, and I could see him hinting at it if that is the case. Also, if there is a lightning rod, then yeah, the doctor would have protected them. Though I still remain a bit skeptical as the lightning rod is an uncommon role.

So, All Might, what are your current reads?

Hmmmmm...? Well, Flora has been tunneling on me at every possible opportunity, mainly for reasons which are purely circumstantial. She does, however, bring up a good point about the timing of Kokirion's vote. I'll concede that divide and conquering works particularly well on D1 lynches, especially if the Mafia is able to instigate two or more bandwagons (and they most likely did). The most conducive way to determine their strategy is by seeing who voted who and then cross-reference their reasons with everyone else's, but I'll have to take it a step farther and refer to...something else. Long story short, going over the lynch campaigns on Tristan and I would be the way to go.

 

[YIGAhim]

This to me heavily conveys that there was a lightning rod. To me it is very unlikely that both the mafia and a probable SKs kills would both go awry and this flavor seems to give the reason why. If you happen to know that your action definitely went through and that this theory isn’t true it’d be helpful if you could subtly mention it.

Isn’t a doctor pretty unlikely since we know there was a bodyguard? Though it seems there must be a protective role around if lightning rod theory is correct.

Also you never answered when I asked what exactly was so unusual about my behavior yesterday?

What do you think about my answer? Matter of fact what are your thoughts on anything?
I’ve yet to come across a roleblocker that could not block the mafia kill so it’s a pretty safe bet that it’s a possibility.

I’m wanting to know what exactly you found suspicious about all might yesterday since he was the only person you found suspicious but the only reason I saw you give was that he was stirring things up about RVS votes. Considering he got discussion started and drew loads of attention to himself I don’t understand how you could possibly seen that mafia behavior. Aside from he was getting all hung up over word choice for nothing but that’s very typical of him. I’m also wanting to know how you feel about Sadia and if you’re going to vote all might again.

Vote: SMS

Your only meaningful post yesterday was mentioning you were suspicious of all might and then not even voting him until I said something which gives me the impression you were trying to be present without being present and only had a suspicion because you felt pressured to have one while trying to avoid being associated with the Mez wagon.
Could you quote exactly what bothers you about his posts? I didn’t notice anything particularly unusual.

I’m positive I had more thoughts but I’ve already forgotten them. In case you guys didn’t know, I’ve got a “job” thing now so I can’t be quite as omnipresent as I usually am. Especially for most of tomorrow.

Nothing really in particular that I didn't mention, but I still got a bad vibe and felt it was at a different level

 

[Kirino]

I'm suspicious of Flora. She initially defended Tristan, and then went on to suspect All Might (and to a lesser extent), Kokirion, Rubik, and funnier for suspecting and/or voting for him. Makes it seems like she knew Tristan's alignment and planned to exploit his flip to establish town cred for herself by defending him while also framing those who voted for him, seemingly further evinced by her implication today that Tristan's flip confirms her suspicion of All Might. This impression is strengthened by the fact that I have at least slight town reads on 3 out of 4 of her suspects (All Might, Koki, funnier).

I'm also suspicious of her lack of reasoning for voting for All Might, as her one and only post on the topic yesterday merely criticized him for his reasoning and claimed that he should know better, without really explaining why it was scummy; instead, she devoted most of that post to defending Tristan, which seems to jive with my theory.

I'm also slightly suspicious of the following post, which is what encouraged me to look into her in the first place:

Quite the shocking night, how fortunate that we didn't lose another member of the town.

In my opinion, this kind of frivolous comment pointing out some positive or negative aspect of the night scene and expressing either relief or disappointment, especially when unaccompanied by deeper analysis, is indicative of scum, as it's often a low-effort way to attempt to attract town cred.

Vote: Flora

Who is your first paragraph in reference to?

Flora, who voted for All Might at the beginning of the day, as well as Sadia, who stated yesterday that he would be one of her suspects if Tristan flipped town.

This is probably a good time to mention that I'm slightly suspicious of Sadia for roughly the same reason, although to a lesser extent. I don't think that her and Flora are both scum, however, so if one flips scum, then I think it makes the other more likely to be town.

Considering it’s a role madness game I don’t see what difference it would make since it doesn’t take a role claim to say that you happen to know it wasn’t a lightning rod.

Many PRs have nothing to do with night actions, and it's more likely that a minor PR would answer the question, which would still give the Mafia information and help them narrow things down.

If Tristan flips town, I'll be suspicious of All Might, Kirino, funnier, and possibly Kokirion but not really

If Tristan is scum, I'd be suspicious of those on the All Might bandwagon except me

Why would you be less suspicious of Kokirion? Given Flora's comment on the timing of his vote, have you changed your mind?

 

[Lily]

Makes it seems like she knew Tristan's alignment and planned to exploit his flip to establish town cred for herself by defending him while also framing those who voted for him, seemingly further evinced by her implication today that Tristan's flip confirms her suspicion of All Might. This impression is strengthened by the fact that I have at least slight town reads on 3 out of 4 of her suspects (All Might, Koki, funnier).

How adorable. The "fact" that YOU have slight town reads on those three does not clear them whatsoever. I defended Tristan based on my intuition that he was being wrongfully accused, and rightfully so. Could it be any more ironic that you are trying to throw me under the bus when you yourself did nothing but throw Tristan under the bus all day on Day 1, then flipped it around on Day 2 and acted like you were against pushing it? Who looks shadier now?

In my opinion, this kind of frivolous comment pointing out some positive or negative aspect of the night scene and expressing either relief or disappointment, especially when unaccompanied by deeper analysis, is indicative of scum, as it's often a low-effort way to attempt to attract town cred.

In regards to my first post of the day, you've completely missed the point and made a random speculation instead. You then used that as "reasoning" to vote for me, making your "unaccompanied by deeper analysis, is indicative of scum, as it's often a low-effort way to attempt to attract town cred." post extremely ironic and pitiful.

All in all, summing up your post tells me you have no idea what is going on and you are oblivious to subtle hints. Please go back and read my posts, before you bother to respond.

 

[kokirion]

Mafia could not realistically know who the PR is targeting until after they've already selected their targets. If the doctor chose their target 10 minutes before the end of the 24 hour night phase, that wouldn't give mafia enough time to decide to do a no kill, realistically.

The odds are that not NKing would be more likely to accidentally clear a townie than accidentally clear a scum player. Those kinds of gambits only really happen late game, not N1.

If this were a game with a multi-phase night phase, that'd be one thing, but that's not the case.

I don’t think it is impossible that the mafia decided not to kill. It does not necessarily clear any player, for that would need a role claim from the person protecting him/her. Which would also reveal to the mafia who the doctor is, which is really little game for the town. Not killing on n1 is a good tactic to extend day 1 discussions.
However, I have reasons to believe that the lightning rod thesis may be plausible.

I looked back right now, and kokirion voted Tristan and then asked Sadia who she wanted to vote for with a potential tie lurking ahead. I think it was pretty weird to ping Sadia and ask her specifically as those were the last posts kokirion made for the day, but I could be reading too much into it. That said, kokirion reading me, Tristan, and funnier as a scum team bothers me more today now that Tristan has flipped town.

In my last game here I lynched multiple scum for them playing too perfect for scum, being in the perfect position everywhere. Now, if I would actively look at that to hunt for scum myself, why would I be sloppy and make the exact same mistakes if I would be scum myself?
I didn’t vote for Tristan originally because a vote based on that one post of him alone would be super weak. When I opened the game again, the situation changed and it seemed that maybe All might would be lynched instead of Tristan. I believed Tristan was a better candidate, because both you and funnier seemed to defend him, and lynching Tristan would be a good way to get more information on all 3 of you. And naturally I asked for Sadia’s opinion. She actively participated but did not yet vote, and naturally I wanted here to join the bandwagon on Tristan. If she wasn’t interested, I at least wanted to know why, maybe she had something interesting in mind she hadn’t shared yet.

There are some more things I noticed today that I want to talk about, but I’m currently a bit busy and have to type this on my phone. I’ll write more posts later tonight