There are multiple viable wagons and scum has the ability to stop any of them from occuring if they tip their hands a bit and the wagons are people who a lot of people have given opinions about and have given opinions about other people (except maybe silverfish, but the fact that there's a low information wagon in contention is also potentially a good thing).
I'll analyze the wedding wagons d2 based on the flips, I'm not going to create a bunch of hypotheticals beforehand and analyze them, that'd be counterproductive.
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I'm having a hard time reading all might for the time being. He'll be easier to solve based on future voting patterns, imo.
It's common for scum to spread votes across multiple wagons here on D1. Makes it harder to track them down in the long run while they blend in but sometimes they get caught through process of elimination (the same is also true for lurkers).
Sun Fan springs to mind, but he hasn't posted since his "don't ask me why" post. Comparably, the other inactives have cited being busy whereas FG has popped in, offered what I'd consider to be mostly fluff, and then went poof.
Do you have any alternative lynchees in mind aside from yours truly?
Okay, so this is the list of people I narrowed my focus down to. The ones I remove basically boil down to me either having a town lean on them, or just gut feeling of not wanting to lynch them. Or like in Laurentus' case, I'm giving him a pass until he's able to be active because I feel it's fair to give him a couple of days.
Gonna put some quotes in spoiler tags to not make this super long, but I'll give my thoughts outside of the tags. The quotes are just there for quick reference.
All Might
Despite me initially placing a pressure vote and removing it after he pointed out his softs, I still did kinda feel a little off about him. However, after ISOing his posts, I feel a bit better. I think my off feelings were probably due to the fact that All Might is one of those people I tend to default to scum reading. Probably just a difference in tone that throws me off.
His first post seems like it goes with his other soft he pointed out. Which actually seems characteristic for All Might to soft right off the bat. I just took this post as a anime joke at first. However, it is just a character soft as far as I can tell. Which doesn't mean much for alignment, but is in line with what I expect from him. This is just a small piece of me feeling better about All Might.
I've been gone a long time from the Mafia scene, but this seems to be the norm for Day 1's RVS phase. For the time being, though, I'm just going to assume for the time being that they're both Town and that Mafia would be more content to sit back and watch them squabble. Doing so would 1) make them an easy target for the following Day or 2) more presently, make it easier to mount a bandwagon on one of them. At least, that was the norm when I'd last played about 15 years ago, so I could be overthinking the outcomes.
This is actually a good first serious post and I just didn't pay it enough attention at first. I like that he comments on Rubik/funnier. And that he feels it's a more town/town interaction (which is fair, especially since it didn't buy into Rubik's "we're always opposite factions" thing). And a decent point about why it doesn't feel like they're mafia.
This post is one that actually doesn't look as good as the others. Backs off the Doc vote fairly easily. However, I've done that as town before so I can't fault it too hard.
Overall I think I've changed my stance to a slight town lean for All Might. Don't want his lynch today. Also liked how he's responded to Rag's vote and back and forth with him.
It used to happen a lot because I was silent throughout serious conversation and I would say it worked then. But now it seems like funnier doesn't know what to do so he resorts to this and has convinced himself he can read me (even though I could totally kick his ass as scum ) Last game and honestly this game I legit feel no new pressure, just @ing me is pressure enough.
These are both decent reactions to the 'pressure votes' to me. I like that he doesn't get overly defensive and give in right away. Also saying that just @ing him is pressure enough sounds pretty good to me. I feel like scum Doc may have felt pressured to throw out some easy reads.
So I have a lot to catch up on, but currently SMS is rubbing me the wrong way, mostly because he sort of took a stance against people pressure voting me. There's nothing scummy in that of itself, but last game he was very erratic with changing his votes to anybody for pressure. The sudden change in perspective is just something that jumped out to me.
I also like this post and the one where Doc does research to show he wasn't remembering wrong. Because SMS actually did do that and I'm not sure why he's saying he didn't. He may not have exactly been 'erratic' with making pressure votes, but last game he did start off pressure voting Doc and also switched to Sun Fan at one point.
So I guess overall, even though Doc doesn't have a lot of posts I don't see much wrong with what he does have. Definitely wanna see more though and it's not super unlikely this is his scum play. But I dunno, just think it's more overwhelmed Doc than lurking scum Doc atm.
Johnny Sooshi
Dang, for not really remembering much of what Johnny has said, there's actually quite a bit I found from his ISO to comment on. Guess that's a side effect of the information overload.
So all of these quotes are from early day. And they're all just simple questions to other people. Kinda gives me a CWAC vibe, since Johnny wasn't really posting any of his own thoughts much at that point. Out of those, asking Ex if he had a counter wagon he'd propose probably looks the best. But still not super great.
After going through some more, I tend to agree with the thought that All Might was just making a joke while being fully serious. I also have liked what I read from FG so far. If anything, I'm a bit willing to put more pressure on Silverfish. They have reads that they'll admit to having, but won't share readily. I wanna know more. Same for LG. She's not pushing to go through a bit more and find info she seems probably relevant.
This post looks a little better. He actually gives some reads on people, and feels Silverfish is withholding reads. Which is a good point to make. I think this may have been some of the first suspicion shared on Silver as well. Also some suspicion on LG which doesn't look bad.
Isn't willing to jump on an All Might/Rag split wagon which looks fine to me. Sticks to not voting for either one that he hasn't really given an opinion on, when he could've easily jumped at the idea of a split wagon.
Really, this though. Name/flavor solving isn't going to do much when plenty of shows have quirky chars who may or may not be scum in translation. Not to mention acting as a char means **** all. I've never seen people forced to post a certain way unless the game was a bastard game (see THEBESTZDMAFIA). Pen would have to have advertised it as such if it was. Thems the rules. Flavor trends just don't mean a thing, even if it matches the player.
Takes a stance on name/flavor. Pretty good opinion. I agree that it's not gonna really help us much especially early game when we have a 1 claim per day limit.
I'm not sure I get this. You don't have a read on Doc, but plenty of these others you don't have a specific read on either. I get he's posted less or equal to some on this list, but why put doc in the "for sure town" category?
This quote is one that looks really good to me. Questioning LG on her Doc read. It's following through on his previous stated suspicion on LG and bringing up a good point.
Read wise, I'm pro town on Rag, if only for the in depth reads. That'd be like a 55-60% though. Same with SMS, it fits the same style as last game, which seems to indicate town for now. Everyone else I'm null on. Silverfish and LG I'm on 45%. LG's Doc reasoning just felt kind of weird since he is in the same category as other who don't have a lot to go on, but are town.
More reads, which is nice. Gives a couple of town reads, and some scum leans. Stays consistent with suspicion on LG and Silver.
So all in all, Johnny's ISO is pretty split for me. Think it leaves me at null with him, but he has some potential in there. Will have to see more on him.
With 18 people, is it more likely that we have 3 or 4 mafia? I think four would be just too unbalanced favoring mafia, and three would be too unbalanced favoring town. I can only see three mafia with like maybe one or two indeps. iirc, Pen does enjoy putting SKs into his games, and in the last Anime Mafia, there were two of them. Any thoughts?
Hops on Doc pressure train and says it worked last time, but I don't necessarily agree with that. Don't think the few pressure votes on Doc did much last game.
I've quoted some individual reads from his read's list below, but I wanted to say that overall it seems very non-committal. He null reads pretty much everyone besides a few.
Null/slight scum. Funnier is really easy to town read in general. I'm not super confident about it this time, though. There have been maybe three posts that contained original reads and information, other than that he's been asking a lot of people for information without providing much of it himself. Especially earlier when he was hounding Ex.
I feel this is a bit hypocritical because Hero himself hadn't posted much original reads/info before this either (and neither had a large portion of the game).
Pretty Null. Other than him being relatively quiet I don't understand the votes against him, he hasn't said anything that pinged me the wrong way, and I liked his recent response to Rag.
No clue at all how he has All Might as null, saying he's been quiet but also liked his responses to Rag. I feel like All Might was a hot topic around this time, so kinda odd to have reads on others but null on him.
Also not sure how he has a slight town read on Silver. He guesses he's liked his posts, but that they seem too mellow. There's no elaboration on what he's liked or anything just a vague idea that he might have liked them.
Yes I voted the same person that you did. It's not because I think she's scum, but I'm almost certain one of them is getting offed. I don't think either of them are scum, but I would rather play with All Might than her atm. Of course I'd rather it be someone I'm scumleaning, but I don't think that's happening today. I should've marked him as town leaning as well I suppose, sorry, I wrote my analysis of him well before her, and my "ranking" system wasn't finished then I guess.
I'll address these two together. I find it pretty odd that he votes for FG over any other possible scum leans he has. Says he doesn't think FG is scum, but would rather her be lynched over All Might. And that he's almost certain one of them is going to be the lynch. Really weird stance over all because he could be making a push on a scum read, but he's resigned himself to the fact that one of FG or All Might will be lynched when it was still fairly early in the day. Also, just wanna point out the "certainly not enough to start a BUS yet". Tbh, I think that's just Hero switching up wagon and bus and nothing, but just thought it was funny.
So here's a hot take on Hero considering how I feel about him. He could possibly be SK. I didn't get any odd feelings on him at first til I ISO'd him. Before when he's been scum I feel pretty off on him without having to do that. However, when he's been SK I'll feel more unsure but slightly weird about him. Could be the reason why he seems non-committal and doesn't care who gets lynched. Either way, ya not sure Hero is town this game.
DekuNut
Deku honestly hasn't really said anything at all. I get he's busy, but it's hard to get a read when he hasn't said anything of sustenance. Guess I'll just have to put him as null for now, and give him a chance to catch up.
Eh, I never do well on first days anyway. I guess I'm still new enough that finding the microscopic information amidst all this chaos isn't my strong suit.
This is fair, especially for this game. I think the chaos is making it harder for everyone to get a grasp on the game. But no one does well d1 typically. Lynching scum then is pretty much a shot in the dark, and while it can happen, it doesn't often because it's harder to catch any real scum posts/motivations then.
I'm getting town vibes from Rubik. Funnier seems to jokey to have a solid impression of, but it could be a cover-up. The Sun Fan confuses me. Exlight seems a bit too defensive, but then again he's defending being defensive so I guess it could be fine? Minish seems a bit more agressive than last game, but still very analytical. Someone to watch, but nothing telling. SMS is playing as normal as far as I can tell, but does seem a bit more eager to pressure a vote. Calvin is confusing to me, he's kinda deflecting away from himself.
Though he does share some reads here which is nice. The funnier read is kinda weird. He thinks Rubik is town, but funnier is too jokey? Seems kinda backwards. Read on Sun Fan is fine, because tbh, Sun Fan does speak in mysterious ways sometimes. Lol. The read on me is also odd, because I don't feel like I had been aggressive by that point.
Problem is that I don't have a solid, or liquid for that matter, read on you. I admit my reasoning's aren't based on much right now, but who's are?
I will admit that my perceptions of All Might are a bit scummy based on recent events.
Calvin seems like he wasn't taking it seriously, which could be scummy?
Couple more reads. I can get the All Might one since I feel he can just come across scummy. Calvin read also seems decent. This post seems better than the other reads one.
funnier6 - I get the need to pressure vote and gather information this round. It seems like he's just tagging everyone he can, which seems fairly town.
All Might - Although I had an initial distrust of him because his posts did not read right, and it still bugs me that he had to point out his breadcrumbing, I think he's town after going back through everything.
Ragnarokio - Hounded All might too much for my liking. Opens the possibility of bussing. Do not trust one bit.
Calvin ツ - I distrust him on the grounds that his posts don't read right to me. Nothing of substance. Very slight scum
Having a scumread on someone that most people are townreading isn't a bad look for him. Means he's not just sheeping. And I feel like his reasoning for his scum reads aren't too bad.
Overall, I'm iffy on Silver. He has some odd reads, and seems to be a little self-conscious. But then again, I've only played with once after he subbed in at the end of a game. So I don't have a good grasp on if he's normally like this as town/scum. It could be a case of him not knowing anyone here well.
LittleGumball
I was doing an ISO on LG because for some reason I felt that something was pinging me about her, but tbh, after looking through it again she just looks town. So I'm gonna spare y'all from making this any longer and say I don't wanna lynch LG today and my read on her is pretty townie for now.
Dammit, how did my ISO work out to kinda suspecting the two people funnier asked about other than FG? I honestly was thinking of a possible LG or All Might alternative before this, but they both look better to me now. I guess I would be okay with voting either Hero or Silver today. I'll keep my vote on Silver just because it makes some tied/close wagons and that can lead to some info. But if y'all wanna vote Hero I'm in board with that too.
FG said that she was experiencing anhedonia and thats why she wasn't putting in much effort today, but that she'd step her game up later, for what thats worth.
You > Calvin > Silver > any of the hard lurkers (Doc, Deku, Sun, Laur) is probably my lynch priority today.
I'm sorry that's so long guys. It took me forever to do and I didn't even look into half the players. Here's a tldr if skip that post and read this one.
All Might, LG, Doc, and Johnny (to some degree) look townier to me now. Hero and Silver scummy.
This is actually a good first serious post and I just didn't pay it enough attention at first. I like that he comments on Rubik/funnier. And that he feels it's a more town/town interaction (which is fair, especially since it didn't buy into Rubik's "we're always opposite factions" thing). And a decent point about why it doesn't feel like they're mafia
) Last game and honestly this game I legit feel no new pressure, just @ing me is pressure enough.