Go_Dark_Link
If there ever was one
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2011
I'd like to know why exactly you're suspicious of me, Viral.
Also, at this point it'd be really nice if Atticus and GDL popped in and had something to say about recent events, maybe offer up their opinion on a new lynch.
I'm online. I've been working on reading posts and making one since yesterday. It'll be up in a couple of minutes, I'm just finishing explaining my thoughts. Warning: its gonna be a wall of text.
EBWODP:
Alright, lets do this. I will start by saying I am not unvoting Fig, not yet. I’ll explain why in a moment. So now I’ll just jump right into what I could find on Pendio and Thar, which were the two I said I wanted to look more into. Thar first:
Thareous
Note: I did do a link-by-link analysis like with Fig and JC, but I didn’t know if it would be worth posting. I can if someone wants to see what posts I looked at.
Most of his first posts (as in other cases) were very much joking and baseless Day One substance. Apart from joking a bit with JC about Pendio being his scumbud, nothing caught my attention. Then he tells Fig and Stitch that jumping on each other on Day One for not good enough reasons was very foolish of them.
Then, on Day Two, he begins by saying how it seems the mafia are trying to frame Fig by killing Stitch. He also talks with Findemaxa about how suggesting they’re a power role isn’t a very good idea. Later, as events progress, he starts being more suspicious of Fig, even suggests musicfan should use his ability on him, but isn’t very convinced by this. He then talks about how Keith and Pendio both have good points against each other, but he isn’t sure who to trust. Finally, he talks about not liking to lynch inactives and recommends that the cop look into either JC or Fig.
Day Three he acknowledges findemaxa’s death and (in response to someone) says he doesn’t see why Innocent Child would be a dangerous role to mafia, ergo why they probably haven’t killed Kybyrian.
I want to make a comment here, on that one of Thareous’ posts which brought up my doubts not on him, but on Viral Maze, formerly Kybyrian. Now, musicfan confirmed Kyby as not mafia, and then Kyby claimed innocent child, but then everyone just sort of forgot about it and acknowledged him as town from the on… However, something worries me. The fact that the cult was able to enlist the serial killer as a cultist makes me see that they can probably enlist just about anyone, except perhaps not the mafia. So is it just me or doesn’t anyone else think it would be a bloody good plan to make a confirmed town member into a cultist? It’s basically a perfect opportunity, and everyone seems to be ignoring this or maybe hasn’t noticed.
So, Viral Maze, how I understand it your role is basically you can ask a mod to reveal your town allignment, right? Others might disagree, but considering this role is wide out in the open, I can’t see any sort of disadvantage to you taking the time now to ask a mod to confirm this. It would help me stop worrying about your allignment. Unless of course you no longer can, in which case…
Moving on, he doesn’t believe Keith looks very suspicious, and then he softclaims and defends his claim on being Axle. From what I’ve read, it would be a very risky move for mafia to claim a former mod and I don’t think they would take the risk. So, while it could be a double bluff on their part, I’m still inclined to believe this claim. Later it comes more to recent events with his suspicions on multiple people like Pendio, Fig, and JC. He FoS’s Fig a couple of times and isn’t very certain that his claim as vengeful townie is very plausible. He also suggests looking into Pendio and Big Octo and then votes for the extension.
To sum up my thoughts on him, I feel like he’s being too neutral so I’m unable to place him on one side or another of the spectrum. It isn’t like with JC who to me at times seemed like town and at others like mafia, but more like he doesn’t seem to be part of anything at the moment. I find this suspicious, but like I mentioned I’m also still inclined to believe his claim on Axle, especially since there weren’t any counterclaims on such a risky person to claim as. So for now, I think he isn’t a top priority for today.
Pendio
Day One for Pendio was pretty much joking and nothing else at first. Later on he mentions not thinking Fig’s playstyle matched other games he’s seen him playing as town, and comments on this once or twice. Then he votes on AvatarFlygon to have more chances of survival, and that’s that.
For the next day, he mentions town being more hurt by loss of Doc than that of Vig, and really stresses the fact that Musicfan should use his role TODAY, or else he would be killed at night and it would be wasted. He also says Fig would be a perfect target for this role. Then, after the whole music ordeal is done and Kyby is confirmed as not mafia, and then begins suspecting Keith for the way in which he reacted to being suggested as a possible desperado target. This goes on to Day 3, where he votes for Keith for Mido’s and his own suspicions. He also mentions agreeing on why the Innocent Child isn’t an important target for the mafia. Finally, he is another person who agrees that the cop should lay low, however he thinks they should claim ASAP as waiting any longer is risky. This is something I found very interesting, as it is different to what Fig and JC did.
Now, for Day Four, his attention shifts very majorly towards finding the cultists and cult leader. He all but stops looking for the mafia. Now, I agree finding the cult leader has its merits (as I will explain), but I find it suspicious that he took the first chance he could to direct the town away from the mafia and towards the cult. He’s mentioned he still finds Fig suspicious, after voting for the extension, then explains very thoroughly why he thinks Keith was recruited into the cult on Night 1. Then recently he’s claimed to be fine with both Fig and BOcto or Atticus being lynched, then unvoted Fig and voted BOcto, albeit extremly eagerly I must say. Almost suspiciously eagerly.
Right now, my thoughts on him are fairly clear: leaning mafia. At first I thought he had more chances of being town, particularly with him not telling the cop to wait as others had, but in more recent events I think this might have just been a smarter way of phrasing what JC and Fig did. He did mention the cop should wait, just reveal ASAP. However, with the mods’ recent confirmation of the mafia getting their cop targets back the same night, anything regarding these type of comments seems to be futile to look at now. So moving on from that, I think he isn’t town because of the way he’s been acting recently. He is all about the cult, and getting the cult, and lynching the cult, and while I do think our efforts should focus on that greatly now, why abandon our search for mafia? To me he is taking the easiest escape out of focus on the mafia, on his team, and leading us away. He seems perfectly fine with lynching ANYONE! Granted, as long as they’re suspected of being cultists and cult leaders, not mafia.
Also, Pendio, by reading your posts I’ve seen that you’ve constantly been suspicious of Fig, but very easily dropped your vote on him for one on BOcto. I understand you would do this if you thought BOcto to be a cultist, but is there any other reason towards the change of heart?
Alright, now I move away from the personal analysis of those two, and into my own suspicions on the grand scheme of things. I’ll start by addressing why I still vote for Fig. This vote is not because I think Fig is mafia anymore, but because I think Fig is the cult leader. Why? Firstly, let me tell you how the nights have been going for the cult. Granted, I don’t anything about how it works right now, but I’m going to assume they can recruit someone every night. Night 1? I agree with Pendio, they recruited Keith. It wouldn’t make sense to recruit him Night 2, seeing as he had come under a finger of suspicion from a couple of people.
Then, Night 2, I am pretty sure they recruited Kyby/Viral Maze. I’ve mentioned this above, and if he can get the mods to confirm his town-allignment this suspicion is obviously wrong, but I’m thinking the cult leader saw a chance to recruit a pretty much confirmed town member into their midst, and they took it.
Now the big one, Night 3, I think they recruited Vergo. Why they would do that, well for one I think he has some experience in the game so that’s a plus. Secondly, he seemed to be not suspicious of Keith and against Pendio’s views, which meant it would be a good idea to get him as a confirmed ally in their midst. If you don’t remember that, go back and read Day 3. He’s a strong player, and they would need someone like that, especially if Keith was going to get lynched. This is risky, I know, but he was the most logical choice. Many of the other people they could go were very much for lynching Keith, and/or against Fig, so when they recruited them it would be obvious to everyone else they’d had a big change of heart. So Vergo it was. Vergo, as you may remember from recently, took it upon himself to oppose the Fig lynch. He did this only when DekuNut, the double voter, had also voted for JC, so he knew now he had chance. The cult leader might not go as far as to defend his cultists and get suspicions on him, but it would make sense for a cultist to defend his cult leader.
There’s also the possibility that Vergo was recruited Night 2 and Viral Night 3, as the cult leader might have feared that the mafia would kill Kyby on Night 2. This does make plenty of sense, and would also add another explanation to why Vergo defended against the Keith lynch.
So, as things stand, I’m building up a suspicion triangle. One corner is town, and the other two mafia and cult. Here is my current list (from the list of remaining alive people):
The Unbanned (12):
Fig
Heavily leaning cult leader. Right at the cult corner of the triangle.
Big Octo
I haven’t looked at his posts, but (due to Pendio going after him) more likely not mafia. Somewhere between town and cult in the triangle.
Mido
Haven’t seen much of him at all, though I find it weird that when Pendio was mentioning the people who probably weren’t cultists, he mentioned him. Center of the triangle but closer to the mafia corner.
Vergo
Moving closer and closer to the cultist corner.
Heroine of Time
I have no idea on her. Center of the triangle.
Viral Maze
Far away from mafia side, but between town and cult, until he proves that he is the innocent child, leaning towards cult.
DekuNut
I’ve seen people’s posts on how he is not confirmed town, and I want to say that I thought of that from the start. Only reason why I find that harder to believe is due to the existence of the mafia cop. Between town and mafia corners, but more closely to town.
Thareous
After the analysis that I made, he stands somewhere in the middle but I think he is slightly closer to mafia than the other two corners.
Pendio
Leaning heavily towards the mafia corner.
justac00lguy
My suspicions haven’t changed much since my analysis of him, still somewhere in the middle. More town/mafia thant cult, but I think more town than mafia.
Atti-kiss
I’ve read people’s suspicions on her, and I would think if anything she’s between town and mafia (due to the other cultists already being assigned to people in my mind). However, I’d suggest keeping an eye on her.
Go_Dark_Link
I’m pretty sure he’s in the town corner.
So finally, what actions do I think the town has to make happen to win this game:
1. Lynch Fig. I’m not buying his roleclaim, and his role would either clear or confirm cultist Vergo in my eyes. If he is truly the cult leader, then a weight will be lifted off our shoulders.
2. Viral Maze, if you truly are the innocent child then make that modconfirm happen. If not, we can be certain you are now a cultist and schedule your lynch for sometime in the next days, though not tomorrow. Why?
3. Lynch Pendio tomorrow. I’m thinking he’s mafia, and so far he’s the only one that I really think is a candidate for this. If we manage to get the cult leader, then the cult falls in our list of priorities and lynching the mafia is definitely on the list. If he turns out mafia, then Mido is next.
4. Tonight. I remember JC said he was roleblocked, and someone else as well. Roleblocker, if you are town then I suggest going for either: Pendio, Mido, or Atticus. I think they are more likely candidates for being Mafia. Personally, I’d go for Mido since I think he might be the Godfather. However, this is just a hunch.
5. Heroine, you seem to have an investigative role. I don’t know if I can trust you or not. But, hopefully we can since your information might be useful. Do as you must, and I don’t know how your role might work, but again I suggest going for either someone of the above targets. It’s either them, or Vergo/Thareous, I think. That is if you go for someone you think is suspicious. If your role depends on going for someone you think is in danger, then I’d suggest DekuNut, JC, or myself.
So that’s everything in my mind at the moment. Hopefully I didn’t miss anything. Basically, my vote stays on Fig and if anyone has any comments on my thoughts, I’m here all day. If anyone wants me to post the link-to-post analysis of Thareous and/or Pendio, I’ll be glad to do so. I only didn’t because this post is long enough as it is.
We have to move now because we're running out of time, but to be honest, I think town still has a chance. Hopefully everything works out.
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