The Switch is DOOMED

[Dio]

Nintendo is going to have another flop of a console on their hands if they aren't careful.

Initially I thought the Switch would be a success story with it being a hybrid of home console and portable. A machine that could lap up both of Nintendo's existing consumer bases (handheld and home console owners) and have them all on one machine, as well as tapping into the mainstream gamers who are yet undecided about getting an X1 or PS4.

However. Nintendo appear yet again hell bent on self sabotage. Just as what happened with the Wii U vs 3DS situation, we know games are going to be releasing for Switch that also have a 3DS version, making spending hundreds on buying a new switch for a game that could be played on a cheaper or already owned console sound like an unattractive prospect indeed.

Switch needs attractive exclusives which appeal to mainstream audiences to gain new buyers and looking at the lineup it isn't really getting any on release. The biggest release of course is Breath of the Wild and that isn't even exclusive to the Switch and for me it is the only reason I am going to buy the console.

What it seems like to me at least by my observation of Ninty not phasing out the 3DS, is that their strategy is to sell Switch as a home console and not as the replacement for both home and handheld it should be. This puts it in direct competition with the both 3DS and the PS4.

PS4 is the most powerful home console and has the best lineup. Unless you are really into the exclusives of Xbox or Nintendo you'll go PS4 as your games machine. That's why it is the best selling home console of this gen, the consumer has voted with their wallet there. It's got the exclusives and it's got the best running versions of 3rd party games. What's Switch got? Where's the exclusives? And let us remember that all the 3rd party games will be the worst running and looking of any of the soon to be three main home consoles. So why buy a Switch? Where are these millions of consumers that are needed going to come from? If not from the 3DS crowd. The Wii U crowd? Thats what it seems like they are going for. Though as we all know crowd would be a massive exaggeration of the size of that buyer base.

I hope Nintendo changes strategy and gets lots of Switch Sales. For me who only cares about Zelda, that means more people will get to experience the franchise that I am into and as a result of the extra interest ensure that it keeps being made and that the company puts more effort into producing titles for it.

Currently their plan looks like it will lead them to ruin again just like with the Wii U. So. Anyone who is still optimistic about the Switch can you tell me where all these buyers are going to come from?

 

[Kylo Ken]

Tldr, Switch best console evr

 

[Jamie]

What are all of these dual releases? FEW which is new 3ds only (a console most people don't have)? FE Switch exclusive is coming, plus Mario, Zelda, Splatoon, DQ. What's the issue?

 

[Spirit]

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!

Isnt it just FE Warriors coming to 3ds and Switch?

The fact that 3ds is still getting games is good, i dont want the console to die. Its a damn good machine with a damn good library, i'm happy for now that the 3ds is still going.

As for it competing with the Switch. If no one buys the Switch and it flops like WiiU Nintendo are going to need the 3ds to be alive and kicking.

I honestly dont think there will be many Switch games also released on 3ds i think FEwarriors will be one of very few exceptions. Its early days.

I am very worried about the Switch, i've considered cancelling my preorder more than once already because i dont think Nintendo are going to keep the console exciting enough for third party to want to develop for it. If Mario Kart 8 is anything to go by for the supposed ports on the system then there wont be a point in getting them. The launch line up is honestly horrid, the rest of the year holds little sway for me, the paid online is a sticking point which means i wont be buying Splatoon2... and many other problems too.

I think the Switch will do better than the WiiU just because it doesnt have 'wii' in the name. But i dont think it'll do too much better which means third parties will jump ship very quickly into the console's life. I also dont think selling more than the WiiU will make the console a success.

Honestly im worried. I really am, i hope next year has a lot of decent titles like a decent Metroid and F-Zero but im not holding my breath. They need to keep the titles coming too, i really dont know if theyre going to.

But i dont think keeping the 3ds alive ia gonna hurt it as much as people think, moreso everything else.

 

[Ventus]

3DS VERSION doesn't mean anything because they are releasing on the NEW 3DS, plus, they have two platforms to support now instead of just one! it makes no sense to have a JUST Switch launch year leaving (new)3DS users completely dry, I will absolutely kick your ass if you believe otherwise because I love Nintendo and no one can tell me otherwise (even though I pirate everything on Wii U lmao).

Seriously you can't tell me with a straight face to just throw the New 3DS to the wind and tell your 20-40 million potential consumers to **** off and spend another $300. That's insane.

 

[Dio]

What are all of these dual releases? FEW which is new 3ds only (a console most people don't have)? FE Switch exclusive is coming, plus Mario, Zelda, Splatoon, DQ. What's the issue?

Zelda is dual release Wii U and Switch. Mario is the only system seller you mentioned there.

 

[Tibari]

Jamie said what I wanted to say while reading the OP, but we shouldn't forget Xenoblade 2 and all the more little exclusives titles (Arms is still young, but this game has a huge potential)
FE Switch for 2018 will also be a system seller, as Splatoon 2

 

[Ventus]

Zelda is dual release Wii U and Switch. Mario is the only system seller you mentioned there.

Zelda is dual release on Wii U for the...what...1 million or so Wii U owners still around? sure it sold to 10 mil people or whatever, but most people abandoned that POS by now.

 

[Jamie]

Zelda is dual release Wii U and Switch. Mario is the only system seller you mentioned there.

Only 13m people own a Wii U. The Switch is already sold out in my city with pre orders, in fact they sold out day 1. Tons of comments I saw on botw videos were about how they are getting the Switch for it even lots of people who don't have a Nintendo console. I think BotW will still help sell the Switch.

Splatoon was bought by roughly 1/3rd of Wii U owners. Why can't it's sequel sell consoles?

FEW again is only a new 3ds game. Not many people own a new 3ds. So I would hardly count that as a dual release.

Why aren't DQ and FE system sellers...? Especially a console FE.

Bottom line here is a large amount of your post says that Nintendo is failing because of dual releases. But it only has one, BotW. Even if you count FEW, the new 3ds is mostly owned by Nintendo enthusiasts who are going to buy a Switch anyway. What is the issue?

 

[Spirit]

What WILL and already is hurting the Switch is third party support, oh the irony.

What i mean by this is games releasing on Switch and PS4 are getting comparison videos and screens and are showing the obvious downgrade on Switch when put side by side with the ps4.

Dragon Quest Heroes 2 is a good recent example with people not happy with the Switch version being less impressive in terms of visiuals (because portable aspect be damned for many) which will lead people to buy the game on PS4.

Im buying DQH2 on ps4 because i already have the first on ps4 and i like my franchises in one place.

But on the same note i'll be getting DQ11 on the ps4 too (and other switch/ps4) titles because ps4 feels more fitting for me to buy third party titles on. Nintendo consoles will always be for Nintendo games to me.

So yeah. Exclusive third party titles on Switch wont be bad but when people can have a better looking/potentially better running game on ps4 theyre probably gonna do that...

Thats another thing that worries me about the Switch and another reason why third parties a few months down the line wont bother putting stuff on the Switch.

 

[Dio]

Jamie said what I wanted to say while reading the OP, but we shouldn't forget Xenoblade 2 and all the more little exclusives titles (Arms is still young, but this game has a huge potential)
FE Switch for 2018 will also be a system seller, as Splatoon 2

Those franchises are less popular than you think. Fire emblem isn't that popular and it certainly isn't on home consoles. Radiant dawn did not even sell 500,000 on the Wii with a 100million user base.

 

[Jamie]

Those franchises are less popular than you think. Fire emblem isn't that popular and it certainly isn't on home consoles. Radiant dawn did not even sell 500,000 on the Wii with a 100million user base.

FE has had a massive resurgence. Its unfair to compare Radiant Dawn. You also said DQ isn't a system seller.

 

[Lozjam]

Zelda is dual release Wii U and Switch. Mario is the only system seller you mentioned there.

Na ah ah.

DQ is a system seller in Japan. Like seriously, a system seller.

Splatoon has proven itself to be a system seller, especially from Japan. So the sequel will do the same, especially since it's on better hardware that isn't sucky.

Plus, not many people will even consider buying BotW on Wii U. Consider the Wii. Almost nobody bought the GC version of the game, they bought it on the Wii. The Wii also didn't have stunning launch year either, besides Zelda of course, and that system did fine.

I'm not saying that Nintendo doesn't have to worry about the Switch. But it's games aren't the problem. It has an extremely healthy lineup all throughout 2017, in its first year. The problem will be marketing.

As of right now, I think the Switch will do well. I think it will at least sell more than the XBO, which still sold abysmally. I think the Switch will have no problems selling at least 20 million units within the next 4 years.

A single dual release with FE Warriors isn't going to kill the Switch. It definitely won't. If the Switch fails, it will be to terrible marketing.

What WILL and already is hurting the Switch is third party support, oh the irony.

What i mean by this is games releasing on Switch and PS4 are getting comparison videos and screens and are showing the obvious downgrade on Switch when put side by side with the ps4.

Dragon Quest Heroes 2 is a good recent example with people not happy with the Switch version being less impressive in terms of visiuals (because portable aspect be damned for many) which will lead people to buy the game on PS4.

Im buying DQH2 on ps4 because i already have the first on ps4 and i like my franchises in one place.

But on the same note i'll be getting DQ11 on the ps4 too (and other switch/ps4) titles because ps4 feels more fitting for me to buy third party titles on. Nintendo consoles will always be for Nintendo games to me.

So yeah. Exclusive third party titles on Switch wont be bad but when people can have a better looking/potentially better running game on ps4 theyre probably gonna do that...

Thats another thing thag worries me about the Switch and another reason why third parties a few months down the line wont bother putting stuff on the Switch.

If the Switch was a home console, I would agree. However, the Switch is a portable Home Console. All these graphical downgrades, they are completely worth it for portability for many people. Especially in Japan, this is extremely important.

The average consumer really doesn't care about which games look the best. We know this because the XBO is inferior in every way to the PS4 specs-wise, and people still bought it. They care about the content, and what other features the system has.

In the end, third parties will still be there so long as there are sales.

However, regarding third parties. The Switch will be the absolute best system to play JRPG's. It's portability and design perfectly lends itself to that.

Those franchises are less popular than you think. Fire emblem isn't that popular and it certainly isn't on home consoles. Radiant dawn did not even sell 500,000 on the Wii with a 100million user base.

Uhhhh.... Dude. That was because FE was barely even known, and it didn't lend itself well to other people. The franchise was dying altogether before Awakening came along, but it's now clearly one of Ninty's biggest AAA franchises.

 

[Castle]

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!

If anything is going to flop the Switch, it won't be its lack of exclusives. As previously mentioned, it will be its lack of third party support or unattractiveness compared to titles on other consoles. It will be its lackluster online functionality for its price, over-reliance on gimmicks, or any of ninty's usual herp-a-derps we've come to expect.

Ending the 3DS cold turkey would be a mistake. Putting all of Ninty's eggs in the Switch basket will ruin them in the very likely event the Switch should flop. Then Ninty will be without their only viable product. If they can use tandem Switch/3DS games to make the Switch look like the better choice, they can start courting people away from the 3DS to the Switch and ideally eventually use it as a replacement once the Switch has enough of an install base. Honestly, this is a tall order for Nintendo. I don't think they have the expertise to pull it off. Maybe they have something else in mind? Or maybe they haven't the slightest semblance of a clue what they're doing? Guess we'll wait and see...

 

[Dio]

FE has had a massive resurgence. Its unfair to compare Radiant Dawn. You also said DQ isn't a system seller.

I dont think it is unfair. Radiant Dawn was a console FE and this new one is also a console FE. What it is not fair to do would be to compare a home console FE to a handheld FE and expect handheld FE fans to suddenly get home consoles to play an installment.

I haven't mentioned Dragon Quest once. This is because I dont remember even hearing of the franchise until now, maybe it has been mentioned in the SB but I've never taken notice.