Things were very crazy over the night.
Ver-go-a-go-go was healed by a lovely friend, leaving him at full health! But then someone else felt they weren't as good friends with Vergo, and he ended up damaged at the end of the night
If we do the math, it's clear that if our "doctor", or some other healing role to that effect, hadn't intervened on my behalf, I'd be incredibly close to death (90%) as this attack did 75%. Apparently I was completely healed, which logically means I was at 0% before the night attack. This leads me to believe that it was indeed the mafia, mainly because the damage they dealt in a single blow was enough to push even those at 0% very close to death, and if they do have damage variation, it wouldn't surprise me if their damage potential was even higher (perhaps it may even cap at 100%).
It could of course be the Vigilante or Serial Killer. I'd put my money on the Serial Killer though, as I don't think based on day one actions alone that I was a good Vigilante target (go figure, lol). Maybe I wasn't active enough? Sorry, I was busy building a house. It almost fell on someone though, and it looked like it would have really hurt them if it did. But if I was pissed off enough at someone, I could probably do just as much damage though.
As the day loomed, it also became clear that another friend of everyone's took some damage--but not as much as our friend Vergo. Frozen Chosen woke up with a few bumps and bruises!
This is the one that makes me think I was the mafia target instead of the Vig or SK target. It makes more sense to me that the damage Frozen Chosen got, with 30% as opposed to 75%, indicates that their attacker wasn't mafia and was some other source. It doesn't make sense for the mafia to do so relatively little damage, as their entire strategy is based on their nightly kill. We also get no indication that this damage was lessened or healed in any way, like we did with my attacker above.
I think daytime attacks are going to be lower in general compared to any night skills.
I don't think we can go off of attack strength to determine loyalties.
Hmm, you really think so? I agree that day time attacks will naturally deal less damage, but that seems like a given with the context of what mafia is (it takes many people to kill during the day, and only one to kill at night). I still believe that damage totals could, and in my opinion should, point towards the natural strength of the character relative to the rest of the Smash roster. This was a theory that DekuNut seemed to brush off fairly quickly, but I think it holds merit. The only way we'll find out is with some subtle claiming and more attacks.