Game Thread Fallout: New Vegas Mafia

[Krow]

Since I obviously have no idea what I'm doing according to funnier, and I know what I am, I volunteer for lynch. You can do what you will with Rubik, preferably don't waste your vig shot on me, you'll need it for the scum, but do as you wish.

@Doc, @Stormageden747: Anything to say?

As for Krow, I see no reason for him to be lying about this claim, so I believe him. I think we can do better than lynch a survivor today. That being said, the odds of two survivors are pretty unlikely, so it's possible that someone's lying, in which case it'd probably be Rubik. If we were to want to kill him, though, it'd probably be better for the vig to do it.



This is a silly excuse. Simple question: why did you vote for Stormageden? Was it pressure?

Also, regarding Krow, you seem to more or less accept his claim of being survivor, so it looks like you're lynching him for his poor/irrational play, and because you view two living survivors as being potentially harmful. Is that correct?

If you're confident that there aren't two survivors then Rubik better start making a counter excuse if I get maj'd.

 

[funnier6]

Yes, please do vote for me. I'll supply the hammer, or maybe we'll get lucky and I have the hated mechanic.

...Actually somebody should probably shoot him.

Unvote

@Doc, @Stormageden747: Anything to say?

As for Krow, I see no reason for him to be lying about this claim, so I believe him. I think we can do better than lynch a survivor today. That being said, the odds of two survivors are pretty unlikely, so it's possible that someone's lying, in which case it'd probably be Rubik. If we were to want to kill him, though, it'd probably be better for the vig to do it.



This is a silly excuse. Simple question: why did you vote for Stormageden? Was it pressure?

Also, regarding Krow, you seem to more or less accept his claim of being survivor, so it looks like you're lynching him for his poor/irrational play, and because you view two living survivors as being potentially harmful. Is that correct?

Partly.

Well, I was. I did accept his counter at first but the more I thought about it the less it made sense and since at worst it would’ve been one less survivor I was okay with it. Now I’m thinking we’d be safer if he was shot instead of lynched.

I was actually about to ask @Doc what was on his mind too. I’m not happy with the wagons atm and I want Doc to post, which is the answer to your next question I’m sure.

Vote: Doc

 

[Krow]

...Actually somebody should probably shoot him.

Partly.

Well, I was. I did accept his counter at first but the more I thought about it the less it made sense and since at worst it would’ve been one less survivor I was okay with it. Now I’m thinking we’d be safer if he was shot instead of lynched.

Look at you, you don't even know what I am. You're just spewing your thoughts aimlessly and attempted to join a bus, try to have some confidence in your accusations.

 

[DekuNut]

I don't think we should waste a vig shot on Krow. We don't even know what kind of vig we have. We know for sure that we have multiple lynches. We could be stuck with a one shot vig. If we are going to get rid of him, a lynch is the best bet.

 

[Doc]

I don't see why it's so unlikely that both Krow and Rubik are telling the truth. Unless scum know for certain that there isn't a second survivor, I see no reason for someone to fake claim survivor on day one. It can be so easily disproven if there ACTUALLY are two survivors. The only scenario I see where someone fake claims survivor is jester, but that requires so much chance and hoping the real survivor(s) counterclaim or town takes the risk and lynches a survivor claim.

I can't grasp a scenario where mafia fakeclaim this early. And I don't see where this suspicion is coming from. It's unlikely that there are two survivors, but its even more unlikely, IMO, for a survivor fakeclaim from anyone but jester.

Survivors could be dangerous in the long run, but I think lynching one this early is a waste of time and a lynch. It's actively lynching someone who we know for certain isn't scum. Based on people's reactions, funnier and Deku are looking the most suspicious to me. Both are pushing a lynch that I don't feel is beneficial to town.

Also, potential vig, I would suggest not shooting Krow or Rubik. Unless one of the things Pancake modified was the one-shot vig, it's a waste of your one kill. The only point I think a vig should target survivors is when mafia+survivors outnumber town.

 

[Kirino]

I don't see why it's so unlikely that both Krow and Rubik are telling the truth. Unless scum know for certain that there isn't a second survivor, I see no reason for someone to fake claim survivor on day one.

It's statistically unlikely: according to the set-up, if nine numbers from 0-100 are randomly selected, then five of them would have to fall between 73-86 in order for there to be 2 survivors. I agree that scum fakeclaiming on the first page is pretty unlikely as well, but it's a matter of deciding which is more improbable. I'm not necessarily taking the position that the latter is more likely, but we have to consider the possibility, in which case Rubik is more likely to be lying.

Still, I agree with not lynching or NKing either. If the vig is one-shot, they should probably save their ability, and if they aren't, I'd suggest Stormageden. Rubik might be more viable later on, though.

 

[Doc]

It's statistically unlikely: according to the set-up, if nine numbers from 0-100 are randomly selected, then five of them would have to fall between 73-86 in order for there to be 2 survivors. I agree that scum fakeclaiming on the first page is pretty unlikely as well, but it's a matter of deciding which is more improbable. I'm not necessarily taking the position that the latter is more likely, but we have to consider the possibility, in which case Rubik is more likely to be lying.

The statistics are random though. Strategy is not. Two survivors is unlikely, but its still a risk for scum to assume that this didn't happen. If four or five S's were generated, than that scum's game would be over immediately. Such a big risk for a little pay-off doesn't make sense to me.

 

[Mikey the Moblin]

I'm here and exhausted. When does phase end?

I have a weak case on SMS but I'll probably get to that later, I don't think he's a d1 lynch. I'd rather resolve funnier/minish/yiga first since odds of that pool being clean seem astronomically low to me

Are there any other questions for me? Maybe questions about why we shouldn't lynch Storma? Maybe how storm feels about an entire 24 hours without MtM?

 

[A Link In Time]

I'm back home now but pretty tired. I skimmed over the thread and the biggest news is that both Rubik and Krow are claiming survivor. There is a possibility of two survivors in this set-up, so I think there is a good chance both of them are telling the truth. That said, looking over the Rubik quotes Krow posted, saying he's okay with being vigged when his win con is surviving is a bit odd. In Pendio's ATLA last year, I claimed SK in the hopes of surviving if I cooperated with the town, and it worked out. During that time, I said over and over again not to vig me, so I don't like Rubik's attitude given his win con is survival if he is telling the truth.

 

[A Link In Time]

The wagon to bus Storma today feels wrong to me too. The issue here is I'm not aware of any player's nirmal playstyles, so it feels weird just taking others words for it.

What do you mean by "bus" here? Is this a scum slip or do you think Storma is getting bussed?

 

[A Link In Time]

It's statistically unlikely: according to the set-up, if nine numbers from 0-100 are randomly selected, then five of them would have to fall between 73-86 in order for there to be 2 survivors. I agree that scum fakeclaiming on the first page is pretty unlikely as well, but it's a matter of deciding which is more improbable. I'm not necessarily taking the position that the latter is more likely, but we have to consider the possibility, in which case Rubik is more likely to be lying.

Still, I agree with not lynching or NKing either. If the vig is one-shot, they should probably save their ability, and if they aren't, I'd suggest Stormageden. Rubik might be more viable later on, though.

Alright. I missed that detail. In that case, it is less likely that there are two survivors. It's a tough situation that I'm not sure we should be focusing on today, however. I think that's better resolved through a vig than a lynch. With how passionate Krow is about counter claiming and seeing as there would be no reason for a wolf to put themselves in that situation on Day 1, I feel more confident in Krow telling the truth than Rubik. Claiming survivor at the way start of the game is an easy way to coast by. That said, I'm torn because I think Rubik's posts have been townie so I don't feel comfortable lynching there.

 

[Mikey the Moblin]

S L I P T H E O R Y

 

[A Link In Time]

I will be back in the morning, but I might not be here for EoD as I'm going to see Solo and Incredibles 2 with my brother tomorrow.

 

[A Link In Time]

One more thing: My post about Krow and Rubik was awkwardly worded so when I'm saying claiming survivor early on is easy, I'm referring to Rubik.

 

[Rubik]

if nine numbers from 0-100 are randomly selected, then five of them would have to fall between 73-86 in order for there to be 2 survivors

Four of them, actually.

14/100 = 7/50 ; 1 - (7/50) = 43/50

No survivor = (43/50)^9 = 0.25732741731

S = Lyncher + Hidden Lynchee = (43/50)^8 * 7/50 * 9 = 0.37701458815
SS = Lyncher + Hidden Lynchee + Hated Survivor = (43/50)^7 * (7/50)^2 * (8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1) = 43/50)^7 * (7/50)^2 * (36) = 0.24549787135
SSS = Lyncher + Hidden Lynchee + Survivor = (43/50)^6 * (7/50)^3 * (9C3) = (43/50)^6 * (7/50)^3 * 84 = 0.09325112942
Single Survivor = 0.71576358892

SSSS = Lyncher + Hidden Lynchee + Survivor + Hated Survivor = 0.02277062462
SSSSS = Lyncher + Hidden Lynchee + 2 Survivors = 0.00370684586
SSSSSS+ (Not going to calculate this, but it's also small)
Two survivors = 1 - 0.97309100623 = 0.02690899377

2.7% isn't an unheard of chance, but it certainly isn't likely.

(Please feel free to correct me if my math is off.)