Game Thread My Hero Academia Mafia

[Pen]

I am a VT with "amnesia". Not sure if it's flavor or for a reason.

This makes me trust you like 99%. It's a very believable claim from my point of view.

I think that there's a decent chance scum was on the funnier wagon from the previous day (and yes, obviously there's an even better chance of them being on the music wagon but both flipped town and the funnier wagon is smaller to analyze).

I fail to see why there would be a decent chance of scum being on funnier's wagon. It had like three players on it. Why would one of them have to be Mafia?

And Pendio's vote was actually and rvs vote that he kept on funnier because he said he didn't have reason to move it elsewhere. Which I feel like was very weak reasoning, and someone like Pendio who has played with funnier quite a bit should have seen that play as town funnier. So the fact that he rvs voted him and then kept it there feels rather suspicious and like he was using some reason to vote for a townie and not have to look even more suspicious moving his vote off to another townie.

If you look back at day 1 of most games I've been in I've almost always kept my RVS vote all throughout day 1 no matter my alignment. I also never want to assume anyone is innocent in Mafia. Especially not on day 1. So in my mind funnier had the same chance of being scum as anyone else. Also, keep in mind I never tried to drive the funnier wagon or advertise it in any way. I didn't care if the lynch went through or not.

Anyway, on a different subject I've been thinking more about Storma's role claim. I think the truth is one of three things:

1. Storma is Town and is truthful about being JOAT.
2. Storma is Mafia and is truthful about being JOAT.
3. Storma is Mafia and is lying about being JOAT.

Keeping this logic in mind I started thinking about what characters from My Hero Academia would fit as a JOAT, and off the top of my head I could only think of one; the villain with the All for One quirk. If that's Storma's character then he is most certainly scum. And if he's fake claiming entirely he's definitely scum too. Could those of you who also know the theme of the game back me up on this or correct me if I'm mistaken? Thank you.

FoS: Storma

 

[Spiritual Mask Salesman]

This makes me trust you like 99%. It's a very believable claim from my point of view.



I fail to see why there would be a decent chance of scum being on funnier's wagon. It had like three players on it. Why would one of them have to be Mafia?



If you look back at day 1 of most games I've been in I've almost always kept my RVS vote all throughout day 1 no matter my alignment. I also never want to assume anyone is innocent in Mafia. Especially not on day 1. So in my mind funnier had the same chance of being scum as anyone else. Also, keep in mind I never tried to drive the funnier wagon or advertise it in any way. I didn't care if the lynch went through or not.

Anyway, on a different subject I've been thinking more about Storma's role claim. I think the truth is one of three things:

1. Storma is Town and is truthful about being JOAT.
2. Storma is Mafia and is truthful about being JOAT.
3. Storma is Mafia and is lying about being JOAT.

Keeping this logic in mind I started thinking about what characters from My Hero Academia would fit as a JOAT, and off the top of my head I could only think of one; the villain with the All for One quirk. If that's Storma's character then he is most certainly scum. And if he's fake claiming entirely he's definitely scum too. Could those of you who also know the theme of the game back me up on this or correct me if I'm mistaken? Thank you.

FoS: Storma

Ok, I looked up villians in the anime, and I found some dude named All For One. Interestingly, I also found some ability/quirk from a Hero in the anime called "One For All". Problem is, the current "bearer" of that ability I can confirm isn't Storma. And that's really all I can say because we can't outright drop names, but anyone with common sense should see what I'm getting at.

But I'm no expert on the anime, and ALiT might have designed this game to not be up to date with the anime as it is currently. In previous seasons I believe this "One for All" quirk belonged to other characters. So if Storma is a JOAT, he is most likely a Mafioso. If he fakeclaimed, he is a Mafioso anyway. Or he is a Townie JOAT, and the game is not up to date with events transpiring in the anime.

 

[Pen]

Ok, I looked up villians in the anime, and I found some dude named All For One. Interestingly, I also found some ability/quirk from a Hero in the anime called "One For All". Problem is, the current "bearer" of that ability I can confirm isn't Storma. And that's really all I can say because we can't outright drop names, but anyone with common sense should see what I'm getting at.

But I'm no expert on the anime, and ALiT might have designed this game to not be up to date with the anime as it is currently. In previous seasons I believe this "One for All" quirk belonged to other characters. So if Storma is a JOAT, he is most likely a Mafioso. If he fakeclaimed, he is a Mafioso anyway. Or he is a Townie JOAT, and the game is not up to date with events transpiring in the anime.

All for One and One for All are two quite different quirks in MHA. One for All isn't really relevant right now since it isn't a quirk that would translate into a JOAT in a Mafia game. The All for One quirk is what's interesting here since the character who has that quirk ultimately possesses a variety of different abilities, much like a JOAT. If that's Storma's character he has to be with the Mafia.

 

[Ronin]

This makes me trust you like 99%. It's a very believable claim from my point of view.

Is it? I can't think of a hero/lawful character who has amnesia.

I fail to see why there would be a decent chance of scum being on funnier's wagon. It had like three players on it. Why would one of them have to be Mafia?

Maybe the Mafia wanted to implement a divide and conquer strategy? Jumping on the same wagon would increase their chances of getting caught, so they would try to split up the votes. Although not voting would be even safer for them, probably (note: I hardly ever vote on Day 1 without good cause as any alignment).

Anyway, on a different subject I've been thinking more about Storma's role claim. I think the truth is one of three things:

1. Storma is Town and is truthful about being JOAT.
2. Storma is Mafia and is truthful about being JOAT.
3. Storma is Mafia and is lying about being JOAT.

Keeping this logic in mind I started thinking about what characters from My Hero Academia would fit as a JOAT, and off the top of my head I could only think of one; the villain with the All for One quirk. If that's Storma's character then he is most certainly scum. And if he's fake claiming entirely he's definitely scum too. Could those of you who also know the theme of the game back me up on this or correct me if I'm mistaken? Thank you.

That severely depends on which season this theme is based on. Somebody asked Alit that on Day 1 and he said that we'd have to find out. All For One would most certainly be the Godfather if the game extends up to season 3, but it doesn't make sense for the GF to reveal himself even if it was on a whim. That said, there is a UA student who matches: Momo Yaoyorozu has the ability to create handheld objects, almost like Alchemy from FMA. Her setup would most likely be 1-shot in this game. I asked if Storma could confirm this earlier, but I guess he didn't see it?

Anyways, your analysis looks accurate. There's about a 65% chance that he's Mafia and was trying to frame you. By the way, I listed you under the "scum" category earlier because I was split between you and Storma being Mafia.

FoS: Storma

This is probably going to be my last post for the Day, so I'm just going to vote for Storma. His playstyle has been confusing and somewhat flip-floppy, almost like a Mafioso struggling to find a safe way to manipulate the situation. He stated that the Mafia finding out his abilities would be risky, but he could be faking the information and the no result doesn't offer any validity to his claim. I'm not buying it.

Vote: Storma

 

[Pen]

Is it? I can't think of a hero/lawful character who has amnesia.

There isn't one in the source material as far as I'm aware but the reason this reveal makes me trust him quite a bit is because I was told the same exact thing in my role PM. The amnesia hasn't got to do with the actual manga/anime; it's an explanation that ALIT came up with so that he could turn Townie characters with quirks into VTs. Basically we've forgotten our quirks and thus we have no power roles.

That severely depends on which season this theme is based on. Somebody asked Alit that on Day 1 and he said that we'd have to find out. All For One would most certainly be the Godfather if the game extends up to season 3, but it doesn't make sense for the GF to reveal himself even if it was on a whim.

I agree with this. I wouldn't put it past our game mod to include a JOAT-Godfather role though. And I also wouldnt put it past Storma to find that middle ground to claim on.

That said, there is a UA student who matches: Momo Yaoyorozu has the ability to create handheld objects, almost like Alchemy from FMA. Her setup would most likely be 1-shot in this game.

This is a fair point. There's definitely a possibility that she is the JOAT but if I were to design this game I would have probably made her an Inventor instead. Anyway, it's definitely possible. Also, while All for One doesn't make his first appearance in the anime until season 3, he's been talked about and referred to rather frequently since season 2 iirc. So I think it's pretty likely that he will be in the game, and I think a JOAT-Godfather role would make a lot of sense for him.

Vote: Storma

 

[Krow]

Personally I think we should start with Storma and if he flips scum, we need to look into Minish. If were in agreement with that, I will swap my vote back.

 

[Pen]

I for one don't see too much reason to be voting Minish today, but I guess we'll see how things progress further down the line.

 

[Krow]

Unvote

Vote: Storma

 

[Kirino]

I'm somewhat skeptical about trying to lynch Storma based on interpreting the flavor, but it's something I'll have to look into after this post. In the meantime:

You mention Krow being on the funnier lynch, but didn't say anything about the other person (besides music but he's already flipped) that was on the lynch. So what are your thoughts on Pendio now that funnier has flipped town?

The difference is that Krow actively pushed for a funnier lynch, whereas Pendio merely kept his RVS vote on. Which would normally make me suspicious, but I actually think that Pendio is town as well, albeit for different reasons: one is the stated mention of amnesia in his role PM, and another is something I can’t reveal. Since I think that Pendio is town, and since he has PM information that seems to confirm Krow as town, I'm now also even more confident in Krow being town.

Also, I find it a bit interesting you have a slight town read on everyone on music's wagon except for myself and Bok. When Hero said before that he thought there could be scum in the group of yourself, me, and Bok for defending funnier. Kinda seems like you could be trying to push that angle to keep some suspicion off of yourself. You give Krow a slight town read for pushing the lynch of a flipped townie because you don't think he would nk him after that. But you don't think Bok or I could be townie for trying to push the lynch away from funnier? Seems like a bit of backwards reasoning to me.

It’s funny that you accuse me of trying to deflect suspicion from myself, because that’s exactly what this post looks like to me.

I don’t think that makes you more likely to be town at all. Funnier was obviously town and recognized as such to the point that he was essentially confirmed; it seems obvious that the Mafia wouldn’t attempt to lynch him and would even defend him for town cred, especially given the NK of him the following night.

In fact, this is exactly what now makes me think you're scum: not only did you push against the funnier lynch (not suspicious in itself, of course), but are conveniently using your defense of him as the first thing to bring up to defend yourself from suspicion; moreover, you're also trying to frame and lynch those that kept their votes on him, both of which are likely town, after he was killed. First Krow, and when that didn't work, Pendio.

It’s kind of ironic that you made this post to defend yourself and remove suspicion, since it only had the opposite effect by convincing me that you're scum.

Vote: Minish_Link

 

[Pen]

@Stormageden747 would you like to come in here and try to defend yourself?

 

[Krow]

I don't think we've heard from @Axle the Beast in a long time, he may be kicked for post count tonight?

 

[Pen]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing, which was why I tried getting him to talk earlier.

 

[DeletedUser9]

I've been very busy. I'll try to catch up. xP

 

[DeletedUser9]

So with regards to the discussion about probabilities...

Saying that past results do not affect future outcomes is entirely true and also entirely missing the point.

The simple facts are these:

• You can calculate a strong of results before they happen, and if your math is right you'll be able to correctly predict how likely that string of results will happen.
• Of course unlikely results still occur, but you can still more or less predict HOW often those unlikely results will happen. If something is unlikely, you can safely bet that it won't happen much.
• This is the same principle as saying a coinflip has a 50/50 chance. It doesn't actually mean you will always get heads, then tails; it just means that most of the time you'll get either result more or less the same amount of times if you flip the coin a ton of times in a row.
• You can look in retrospect at a series of 3 lucky "heads" results in a row and conclude that it wasn't a likely outcome.
• You can further realize that a series of 4, or 5 heads results in a row is even less likely.
• It has nothing to do with saying the previous coinflips determine the future ones.
• It only has to do with understanding that the next result of a flip isn't actually a single result. It's two results: a 50/50 chance to get heads, and a much lower percentage to get 4 heads in a row. Both are correct -- the chance to get heads 4 times in a row is obviously based on the initial chance to get heads on a single flip.
• When you say a flip has 50/50 chance, you are talking about the probability of a single result.
• When you say it's lower because of previous results, you're talking about the probability of the entire chain.
• Both statements refer to different spans of time. You guys are only looking at the probability of a single result. People who talk about recent past results are looking at the probability over a longer span of time.
  
• Probability is relevant even when looking at past data. It is not solely useful as a predictive tool.

I already said this but it cannot be stressed enough: Saying the chance of being Mafia is the same in every game is TRUE, and also entirely missing the point. You are practicing an incomplete understanding of the discussion. IT IS JUST AS BAD to say the opposite; if you think because someone wasn't scum a bunch of recent games they are now, you're also entirely missing the point. The truth is between both positions and both FACTS -- and these are facts, by the way -- need to be taken into account.

Stop trying to justify incomplete positions. Use all relevant data. xP

 

[Krow]

So with regards to the discussion about probabilities...

Saying that past results do not affect future outcomes is entirely true and also entirely missing the point.

The simple facts are these:

• You can calculate a strong of results before they happen, and if your math is right you'll be able to correctly predict how likely that string of results will happen.
• Of course unlikely results still occur, but you can still more or less predict HOW often those unlikely results will happen. If something is unlikely, you can safely bet that it won't happen much.
• This is the same principle as saying a coinflip has a 50/50 chance. It doesn't actually mean you will always get heads, then tails; it just means that most of the time you'll get either result more or less the same amount of times if you flip the coin a ton of times in a row.
• You can look in retrospect at a series of 3 lucky "heads" results in a row and conclude that it wasn't a likely outcome.
• You can further realize that a series of 4, or 5 heads results in a row is even less likely.
• It has nothing to do with saying the previous coinflips determine the future ones.
• It only has to do with understanding that the next result of a flip isn't actually a single result. It's two results: a 50/50 chance to get heads, and a much lower percentage to get 4 heads in a row. Both are correct -- the chance to get heads 4 times in a row is obviously based on the initial chance to get heads on a single flip.
• When you say a flip has 50/50 chance, you are talking about the probability of a single result.
• When you say it's lower because of previous results, you're talking about the probability of the entire chain.
• Both statements refer to different spans of time. You guys are only looking at the probability of a single result. People who talk about recent past results are looking at the probability over a longer span of time.
  
• Probability is relevant even when looking at past data. It is not solely useful as a predictive tool.

I already said this but it cannot be stressed enough: Saying the chance of being Mafia is the same in every game is TRUE, and also entirely missing the point. You are practicing an incomplete understanding of the discussion. IT IS JUST AS BAD to say the opposite; if you think because someone wasn't scum a bunch of recent games they are now, you're also entirely missing the point. The truth is between both positions and both FACTS -- and these are facts, by the way -- need to be taken into account.

Stop trying to justify incomplete positions. Use all relevant data. xP

Thanks for clearing up that deal with Doc way back when, but what do you think about Storma?