Game Thread My Hero Academia Mafia

[Rubik]

@Axle the Beast what are your thoughts regarding the musicfan lynch that occurred yesterday?

@A Link In Time PancakeSamurai didn’t make the required five posts during the previous day phase. What does that mean for him?

i am here

 

[A Link In Time]

@Rubik has subbed in for @PancakeSamurai.

 

[Pen]

Ah nice!

 

[Krow]

Out of curiosity, the roles our fallen townies acquired have all been PR's of sorts. Should this be considered coincidence, or can this be seen as foreseen by the scum?

I don't know much on scum roles, so I could just be reading too far into this.

 

[A Link In Time]

Vote Count 2.1:

Stormageden747 - 2 (Krow, Spiritual Mask Salesman)

Not Voting - All Might, Axle the Beast, Bok Chan Sama, HeroOfTime, Kirino, Libk, Minish_Link, Pendio, Rubik, Stormageden747

With 12 alive, it takes 7 for a majority lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, July 11th at 8:30 PM EST.

 

[Rubik]

So you've kind of illustrated the point yourself:

"However within that set of 1000 flips it's entirely possible to get tails 10 times in a row. Even though it's statistically unlikely."

It is entirely possible to get the same result every time. But it's not likely. It's an obvious fact of probability that everyone knows. You're absolutely right that it doesn't actually modify an individual dice roll; you had the same chance to get Mafia or Town this time as any other, and that's why we're not just lynching you. =P But as you yourself said, it's also NOT LIKELY that you will roll the same result a ton of times in a row. If you are consistently townie tons of games in a row then what you already have is an unlikely result. Strings of results are results in and of themselves. The likelihood of getting tails is always 50% but the likelihood of getting tails multiple times in a row or even twice is a completely different equation. The chance of getting tails three times in a row IS NOT 50%. There are two ways of looking at the probability, and BOTH ARE CORRECT; trying to argue one cancels out the other is not sound mathematics. Both are true and both bear discussing.

If I were to say you're almost certainly scum based on your past games, I'm only valuing probability regarding strings of results, and this would be bad; we'd basically be trying to lynch you JUST because you were town a bunch recently, acting like this almost guarantees you'll be mafia, and we'd be disappointed pretty often I think.

But if I said you're not a safe vote because there's only a 1 in 4 chance you're Mafia, after a ton of other games where you're townie, then I'm also sort of missing a point. If you have a bunch of people who are all reasonably suspicious, and you can't tell who you should vote for, the one who hasn't been Mafia recently is probably gonna turn out to be the guy more often than the ones than have.

Gotta use both my man. Single results and strings of results both have different probabilities, and both can be calculated. They're both real.

Past events have no baring on current probabilities. There's a 5% chance of someone being town 10 games in a row (assuming 75% of players are town) and that's roughly the same probability as rolling a 20 on a 20-sided dice. Implying that past coincidences have any impact on future probability events is at best superstition.

If you flip heads on a coin 95 times in a row, your odds of getting heads on the next flip are still 50-50 assuming the coin is normal. If someone is town 10 games in a row, they're still exactly as likely to be town as anyone else in the next game.

If someone is town a bunch of times in a row and their play-style suddenly changes, it's possible that it's indicative of them being scum, but to imply that randomization patterns have any baring on things is logically unsound.

 

[Rubik]

Vote: All Might

I'd like for you to tell me the 3 players you think are the most likely to be town and the 3 players you think are least likely to be town.

 

[Ronin]

Okay I investigated Pendio as he was on the funnier wagon, I got no results.

So wait, if I'm reading this right then isn't Pendio Third Party? No results has to do with the alignment and not the role, so it's not a matter of him being a VT. There's also the chance that he's the Godfather and can't be investigated.

I think I'm reading this right. And if it's true then Pendio has some explaining to do. @Pendio What do you think of Storma's claims?

 

[Ronin]

Vote: All Might

I'd like for you to tell me the 3 players you think are the most likely to be town and the 3 players you think are least likely to be town.

You mean a 3x3 read? Also since you're voting me I assume you find me the most suspicious?

 

[Krow]

I'm not buying Storma's claim. Not to mention I fakeclaimed as scum some games ago in Anime Mafia and used No Result as an excuse to survive (which worked to your displeasure All Might). If Pendio was GF he should be read as innocent or towny no?

 

[Rubik]

You mean a 3x3 read? Also since you're voting me I assume you find me the most suspicious?

Is 3x3 read a thing?

I just asked you to do it because it seemed manageable and potentially useful.

I think you feel pretty low impact on the gamestate and you've got a low level of attention on you, so I think that's somewhat suspicious. I'm probably going to have to read the thread a few more times to get a stronger read, but the fact that you didn't stand out stood out to me.

 

[Rubik]

I'm not buying Storma's claim. Not to mention I fakeclaimed as scum some games ago in Anime Mafia and used No Result as an excuse to survive (which worked to your displeasure All Might). If Pendio was GF he should be read as innocent or towny no?

Yeah, storma's a pretty bad liar, tbh.

 

[Pen]

So wait, if I'm reading this right then isn't Pendio Third Party? No results has to do with the alignment and not the role, so it's not a matter of him being a VT. There's also the chance that he's the Godfather and can't be investigated.

I think I'm reading this right. And if it's true then Pendio has some explaining to do. @Pendio What do you think of Storma's claims?

Krow is right. If I was Godfather I would typically come up as innocent to an investigation. As for third parties, in my experience they're also always either guilty or innocent just like any other player. It varies between game mods though and depends on what specific third party role whether they show up as guilty or innocent. The only situations where an investigation fails to give any result is either if the investigator was blocked, or if the player he investigated was away a.k.a. a Commuter.

 

[Krow]

So lynching Storma will prove one or two things. Either he's lying scum, or he's telling the truth and we know they have a Roleblocker.

 

[Pen]

So lynching Storma will prove one or two things. Either he's lying scum, or he's telling the truth and we know they have a Roleblocker.

There's also the possibility of him telling the truth, but a Town Roleblocker chose to block him due to them not believing in his claim. It's not all that likely, but I thought I'd point out the possibility nonetheless. I'm not entirely sure what to think of it myself though. The "no results" thing seems awfully convenient for a Mafia member to pull. I'm not really convinced in either way yet, however.