Game Thread Pendio Mafia X

[GrooseIsLoose]

Unvote

 

[ExLight]

I think if there were a separate dreaming god and sunfan was fake claiming they would just counter. Would give them better odds of survival helping to out a fake claim like that.

claiming indept is extra safe because it's unlikely someone will counterclaim that specific role, though

though the cult leader role doesn't seem remotely balanced so i doubt it was included

why? it's a 18p game, cult leader isn't unlikely

 

[Morbid Minish]

claiming indept is extra safe because it's unlikely someone will counterclaim that specific role, though

It's very, very likely there is only 1 independent though.

 

[Ragnarokio]

claiming indept is extra safe because it's unlikely someone will counterclaim that specific role, though


why? it's a 18p game, cult leader isn't unlikely

culting is probably worth more than 2 kills (removing a townie is worth as much as a kill and gaining a cultist is worth more than a kill), which makes it really hard to balance without heavy restrictions. Pen's original cult leader only had the restriction of not being able to have more than 4/5 cultists (can't remember if it was worded to include the leader or not) and on top of that the leader was also bulletproof. If there is a cult and we don't lynch the leader within the first couple days they probably win.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

I'm not sure I would buy the idea that the two slots from one game Pen included are both third party.

In any case, I don't think lynching sun today is overly productive. Like Min said, he can prove his cooperativeness with town, and if we really want him dead he can likely just be vigged. Lynching him shouldn't be a priority at this point.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

Unvote

Hi friend, you got anything to add? Pretty sure I've already asked you for this.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I'm not sure I would buy the idea that the two slots from one game Pen included are both third party.

In any case, I don't think lynching sun today is overly productive. Like Min said, he can prove his cooperativeness with town, and if we really want him dead he can likely just be vigged. Lynching him shouldn't be a priority at this point.

Is there a reason pen wouldn't include two third parties from one game? That said, its also possible that there's only one third-party from that pirates game and that its sunfan, whether he's lying and is cult leader or is telling the truth and is dreaming god. Of course, even if he's lying he could be anything, cult leader is just one of the scarier things he could be in the event that he's lying. Regular old scum is also possible.

Anyone who is considering leashing sun should probably also be talking about what they want him to do tonight. The day is almost done. I looked over the list of abilities and most of them are probably harmful or neutral to the town.

01. Duplicate: The following day each vote counts for two with the same majority lynch.
02. Power: The lynch on the following day fails. Instead the Dreaming God decides who is to die.
03. Restriction: Players have max 2 votes and 1 unvote during the whole following day.
04. Revenge: The player who is lynched on the following day dies regularly and then chooses a night kill.
05. Prevention: Roleblock all night actions.
]06. Randomize: Randomizes all night kills.[color]
07. Divide: The following day each vote counts for ½ vote with the same majority lynch.
08. Minimize: Shortens the following day.
09. Immobilize: All roles that can communicate secretly with each other lose their ability to communicate during the following day.
10. Postponing: This power is postponed to the day after the following one. The lynch of that day fails, instead the player dies the following night.

here's how i feel about all the powers in the original game. the ones coloured red are unambiguously scum-sided in my eyes. the ones coded green are unambiguously town-sided. The ones yellow depend on game state and setup.

Revenge forces an extra kill into the game which could affect LyLo math in a negative way regardless of whether we hit town or scum. If we hit scum its very bad and if we hit town its beneficial. I think this ability is somewhat scum-sided on average.

Whether prevention is good or not depends on the setup and in particular whether strongmans go through roleblocking or only through immunity (i'd need to doublecheck how it worked here/in pen's games). If the latter is true its almost certainly scumsided though it depends on if there are any strongmen in reality. If the former is true its probably town-sided although it again depends on the specific setup and the timing of the ability. This ability is probably the main justification for leaving sun alive.

Randomize is probably townsided, especially if its announced ahead of time, Its another reason to leave sun alive.

Divide is basically negligible, the only thing it really does is prevent scum from prematurely hammering, but thats already a rare play.

Its hard to pin down exactly how strong immobilize is, but it should certainly do more harm to scum than town.

Although power is scum-sided, if sun is leashed faithfully and kills whoever has the most votes at deadline and a vote count is still carried out, then its impact is negligible.

The other abilities are anti-town enough that lynching sun would probably be justified to prevent them from being used.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

I could maybe do 4 town leans:

You
Jinjo
Ex
Johnny

I have to keep Rubik null at the moment, maybe in the next day phase I will be able to determine whether I should town read him or bump him down to a scum lean. Though ine thing I will say is that lately Rune hasn't been adding much to games besides one liners, and that's if he's even posting @funnier6. Usually he picks up as the game progresses, but if he doesn't then it's a concern. Just something to point out that I don't think has been touched on yet.

And I like to give the benefit of the doubt to lower posters which is why I won't scum read players like Deku, Giri, Dawningwinds, and Poy on D1, though they could just be low posting scum. The only player who I'm concerned about from this list, who's activity might be AI is Dawningwinds, I expected more from them. (DW is HumanDawn from Bulba, right?) If this is the same person I could end up scum reading them based on inactivity.

As I mentioned before I have nothing too strong on Killjoy, but I could possibly end up just town leaning him, because if he was scum, I think he'd be asking questions he has and voicing various concerns in a scum chat rather than in the thread.

That leaves Rag, who has posted quite a bit, and Kirino who hasn't been posting as much. From what Kirino has posted I remember it being really beefy wall posts, so from that I'm going to have to keep him null until I see a little more. I'll ISO Rag and address my thoughts on her in another post.

You're still null reading several people who you should be able to formulate reads on by now though. Null reads are so easy and, like I said before, easy.

In my MU game, one of the players made 6 people participate in a game in which he listed 5 players at a time and got everyone who participated to post gun-to-head town or scum reads on all of them (no nulls), getting through every player in the list eventually. It happened even earlier in the phase than this. My point is, even only having 4 real town reads after 46 pages in an 18 player games is lackluster. I know you can do more than this. Hell, even low posters can have tells (for example, read my analysis of Deku in #421, you might find something interesting there). Additionally, Giri may be inactive but he's been popping in incredibly sporadically and saying a whole lot of nothing, despite people including myself pushing him to share thoughts. Do you not think that alone might be something worth reading into?

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

Is there a reason pen wouldn't include two third parties from one game? That said, its also possible that there's only one third-party from that pirates game and that its sunfan, whether he's lying and is cult leader or is telling the truth and is dreaming god. Of course, even if he's lying he could be anything, cult leader is just one of the scarier things he could be in the event that he's lying. Regular old scum is also possible.

Anyone who is considering leashing sun should probably also be talking about what they want him to do tonight. The day is almost done. I looked over the list of abilities and most of them are probably harmful or neutral to the town.




here's how i feel about all the powers in the original game. the ones coloured red are unambiguously scum-sided in my eyes. the ones coded green are unambiguously town-sided. The ones yellow depend on game state and setup.

Revenge forces an extra kill into the game which could affect LyLo math in a negative way regardless of whether we hit town or scum. If we hit scum its very bad and if we hit town its beneficial. I think this ability is somewhat scum-sided on average.

Whether prevention is good or not depends on the setup and in particular whether strongmans go through roleblocking or only through immunity (i'd need to doublecheck how it worked here/in pen's games). If the latter is true its almost certainly scumsided though it depends on if there are any strongmen in reality. If the former is true its probably town-sided although it again depends on the specific setup and the timing of the ability. This ability is probably the main justification for leaving sun alive.

Randomize is probably townsided, especially if its announced ahead of time, Its another reason to leave sun alive.

Divide is basically negligible, the only thing it really does is prevent scum from prematurely hammering, but thats already a rare play.

Its hard to pin down exactly how strong immobilize is, but it should certainly do more harm to scum than town.

Although power is scum-sided, if sun is leashed faithfully and kills whoever has the most votes at deadline and a vote count is still carried out, then its impact is negligible.

The other abilities are anti-town enough that lynching sun would probably be justified to prevent them from being used.

I think Immobilize alone is powerful enough to keep Sun alive for at least one night. If there are Masons or Lovers in the game, they'd be able to confirm it too, though that would require them claiming which is not ideal.

Divide would be incredibly useful in a LYLO scenario since it would prevent scum from coordinating a quick hammer, though that would require Sun living long enough for that. As long as he cooperates with town I can maybe see a scenario in which we let him live until then, though potentially risky.

Power would also be a decent one as long as Sun is willing to cooperate.

I do have to ask though, @The Sun Fan are you required to do something every night?

 

[Ragnarokio]

SMS has been doing more than a lot of players afaicr

in a game thats moving this fast its not surprising that a lot of people are falling behind, even i haven't reading into the thread to nearly the extent that i normally would. SMS has provided reads on more players than i have probably.

 

[Killjoy262]

You're still null reading several people who you should be able to formulate reads on by now though. Null reads are so easy and, like I said before, easy.

Easy for YOU to sau you vets, SMS included, have it the easiest. I'm struggling just to keep up on reads while y'all are skimming right through as if y'all are sleeping.

 

[Ragnarokio]

Power would also be a decent one as long as Sun is willing to cooperate.

Power is basically strictly scum-sided. The only situation i can imagine where it would be useful is in a LyLo situation in which case sun doesn't care who he shoots because he wins either way.

 

[Ragnarokio]

but i guess an (effectively) random person dying is better odds than EV in some lylo situations

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

I checked the Dreaming God role PM from Pirates Mafia 2 and it looks like Sun would have to use an ability every night.

If the game goes on a long time, it could get dangerous to keep him alive. For now though, I don't want to use up a lynch on him.

I'm still scumreading @Poyzin but I don't think we're going to get any more out of him before the end of the day. I actually wouldn't be too opposed to a funnier lynch, though I have to admit that I feel like his later posts have more resembled his town self. Still, I find it incredibly weird that he was looking so much into little things like punctuation and a tbh that for the most part probably meant nothing. Not that grasping at straws is exclusively a scum strategy, but it just seemed weird that funnier would read so much into that kind of thing.

Unvote

I also might be down for a Deku lynch. I know what I said about lynching inactives, but Deku I actually think I made a decent case against earlier, and he promised to catch up yesterday morning but has yet to.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

Day 1 Current Vote Tally:
funner6 - 2 (Morbid Minish, Killjoy)
The Sun Fan - 5 (ExLight, Spiritual Mask Salesman, MixMasterLar, Ragnarokio, Johnny Sooshi)
Rubik - 1 (Giri)
Jinjo - 1 (funnier6)
Poyzin - 1 (Mellow Ezlo)
ExLight - 2 (naga10, The Sun Fan)
DekuNut - 1 (Rubik)

Not voting - Jinjo, DekuNut, DawningWinds, Poyzin, Kirino

With 18 players alive it takes 10 for a majority lynch. Otherwise the day ends on Saturday, June 13th 2020 at 6:00 PM EST.

That Sun Fan wagon really picked up steam and it makes me a tad uncomfortable.

Of these players, I would not hop on Jinjo or ExLight.

@Rubik you voted for Deku then said you're OK with lynching inactives. Did you vote him because you want to lynch him? Are you scum reading him? You haven't talked about it since the vote, though granted you haven't really talked about... anything outside of scum reading Lar.