Game Thread Guess Your Role: Poke Ball Z Mafia (BMGf/ZD Crossover Event) Endgame: TBA, Town and Survivor Win! (11/7/19)

[Mikey the Moblin]

At this point, I think Moe is a scum trying to protect his scumbuddy, given how he's been hunting for some way to prevent ExLight's lynch.

It's that, from a Mafia standpoint, ExLight makes a perfect lynch target, either for busing (if ExLight is scum) or mislynching (if ExLight is not).

And, well, let me explain my tactical thinking: If ExLight is Mafia, any Mafia plans automatically exclude ExLight.

You really do bounce around a lot, trying to pin a lynch on someone other than ExLight,

There

from "wolves were leaving exlight for dead" to
"now you're proposing that I'm their partner"

So uh

Spew

 

[Kerest]

It tells us whether you're legit trying to scum hunt and figure things out, and you can't tell me there is nothing at all to figure out right now.

You mean, aside from me flat-out telling people what they are doing is scummy and voting people because I think they're too scummy? As well as working out a likely Mafia strategy?

In summery, the only reason to avoid even trying to participate in making a reads list is out of fear of being caught fabricating one, because it's easy to tell if the logic is genuine.

You honestly believe this? AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Wait, you're serious, aren't you?

Okay, fine... But remember, you literally asked for this.

1. Tristan - Null - inaction provoking general lack of capacity to gather reads.
2. Morbid Minish - Null - 0.1 variance positive along Y intersection; speaks Towny but not enough.
3. Doc - Null - inaction provoking general lack of capacity to gather reads.
4. HeroofTime - Town - 10.3 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Generally speaks Towny.
5. TheCapsFan - Town - 5.2 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Generally speaks Towny.
6. The Sun Fan - Town - 25.6 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Generally speaks Towny.
7. DekuNut - Mafia - 3.0 variance negative along Y intersection; 1 scum-ranked action recorded: Lack of interaction with Town typical of scum-ranked actions according to profiling.
8. ZinnLav - Null - inaction provoking general lack of capacity to gather reads.; subbed in for other party, lack of interactions that provide useful intel.
9. Rubik - Town - 2.5 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Generally speaks Towny.
10. funnier6 - Null - 2 scum-ranked action recorded: Suggested role is likely harmful to Town, suggested lynching them would benefit Town. However, suggested same may also benefit Town.
11. Max1996ZD - Town - 26.7 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Lack of interaction that is typical of Max when hiding something powerful that will benefit Town.
12. Spiritual Mask Salesman - Town - 2.5 variance positive along Y intersection; 1 scum-ranked actions recorded: Insisted upon reads list of Ereshkigal237-Kerest, which contains information about another player's playstyle that will likely cost the Town a power role. Other actions typical of Town.
13. Kerest - Null - 1.3 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Alignment and role unknown; has been scum-hunting.
14. Maniacal Engineer - Mafia - 25.4 variance negative along Y intersection; 5 scum-ranked actions recorded: Refusal to guess at role or alignment, leading a lynch of ExLight that would be tactically advantageous for Mafia regardless of ExLight's alignment, not giving tactical aid to Town despite being capable of advanced tactics, refusal to answer questions about alignment decision in a way that is logically sound, avoiding conversation when it is directed elsewhere. Actions do not line up with recorded instances of Maniacal Engineer being Town.
15. ExLight - Mafia - 12.9 variance negative along Y intersection; 2 scum-ranked actions recorded: Claiming they will guess their alignment then not. Generally more scummy in conversation than is normal for ExLight according to profiling, buddying Moe.
16. Moe the Moblin - Mafia - 14.1 variance negative along Y intersection; 3 scum-ranked actions recorded: Waffling on trying to find some target other than ExLight, buddying ExLight, miscasting of words said by others in past in attempts to lead lynches on them.

Concluded likely scum team: DekuNut, Maniacal Engineer, ExLight, Moe the Moblin.

 

[Kerest]

Two votes on you and you're already giving in? That's very uncharacteristic of you I must say.

Are you kidding? My plans always involve my death as not only a possible variable, but as one that is planned on. I'm always prepared to die in these games.

Besides, at this point, I'm fighting against illogic itself.

There

from "wolves were leaving exlight for dead" to
"now you're proposing that I'm their partner"

So uh

Spew

Apparently, you did not fully read the first sentence of the second quote and only stopped at the part about ExLight being bused. And, note I've been saying a lot you are trying to save ExLight a lot.

Also, I love how you took the sample sentences in the second entirely out of context. Here's the entire post I made:

Hmm...

Okay, I'm going to go with instinct on this.

Unvote: ExLight

There is a particular reason why I did this: It's not that I think for an instant that ExLight is not scummy.

It's that, from a Mafia standpoint, ExLight makes a perfect lynch target, either for busing (if ExLight is scum) or mislynching (if ExLight is not).

And, well, let me explain my tactical thinking: If ExLight is Mafia, any Mafia plans automatically exclude ExLight. And, right now, the Mafia have the advantage; they know who they are, but we don't know who we are. Town does not even have any investigative roles confirmed, so Mafia managing to mislynch one of their own only makes us less likely to investigate them when we've got so many others we need information on. So leaving ExLight alive throws a minor monkey wrench into their plans and forces the Mafia to try to readjust.

If ExLight is Town, then it likely means Mafia is taking advantage of the confusion and lack of investigative power to mislynch someone without fear of it bringing instant suspicion; they can just point out how ExLight is acting and say they didn't know he wasn't scum.

But, pretty much, right now the only people with enough information to make power plays are the Mafia. They have the most advantage, and with our lack of investigative roles at the moment the Mafia has the most capacity to plan and make choices to get themselves into a strategic position. If we are going to do anything before we gain the information we need, we need to disrupt Mafia plans and force them to constantly reactively change what they are going to do.

Moe, I just proved that you flat-out lied about what I said in that one post. You are a liar, and you are scum.

@Spiritual Mask Salesman You can keep siding with the proven liar if you wish. But, the evidence speaks for itself.

 

[The Sun Fan]

kerest
please explain what/where moe lied in a way that a 4th grader could easily understand

 

[ExLight]

Jesus christ, while I was thinking what to answer to ME we got like a completely new parallel discussion going on here.
It will take a while to read it all.

Quirky remarks with no indepth for now:

Spoiler

Your all caps are giving me a headache

SORRY

I didn't think Ex did crazy stuff! DX

can we still be friends or

Two votes on you and you're already giving in? That's very uncharacteristic of you I must say.

I can't speak for her, but the gimmick can be quite stressful if when have nothing to work with or even to build a decent strategy

buddying Moe

I even have a shirt with his face here somewhere.

Generally more scummy in conversation than is normal for ExLight according to profiling

oh my
I guess I became too predictable?

13. Kerest - Null - 1.3 variance positive along Y intersection; 0 scum-ranked actions recorded. Alignment and role unknown; has been scum-hunting.

I actually kinda like how you were humble enough to put yourself on the list impartially due to not knowing your role/alignment.

I'll finish my reply to ME and I'll try to catch up with this Eresh-Moe discussion after I wake up.

 

[Kerest]

kerest
please explain what/where moe lied in a way that a 4th grader could easily understand

Pretty much, Moe in this post said that my post here initially assumed that the Mafia were throwing ExLight under the bus; in fact, the post initially assumed two possibilities, one in which ExLight was being bused by Mafia and one in which ExLight wasn't.

Moe lied about what the post's initial assumption was.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

Well explain to me what is going on sonce you seem to know...

Look back through my posts (there aren't many of them, shouldn't be too hard). I've been making subtle hints. See if you can spot them and figure it out.

I didn't guess it, I targeted Storma/Zinn and because my action was successful I got my Role PM.

I'm a little confused by this. Simply using a successful action doesn't give you your full role PM, at least it didn't in my case. I figured out my role through the use of an action, but because i haven't officially guessed it yet I don't yet have my role PM. You need to make successful guesses to complete your PM as far as I'm aware.

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

Ugh I've got 10 pages to read. I'm on the bus now but I'll catch up when I get home.

 

[Kerest]

Now, how can Mafia both bus and protect one of their own?

Mafia are not stupid. You don't want the entire Mafia team on board for busing someone. Because, even if we don't have investigative abilities now, we'll gain them later and someone might reexamine prior lynches just in case. You don't want the Mafia to be entirely on the same page on any vote just to avoid an examination of the votes revealing the entire Mafia team.

It's a confusion play. Town is confused and disorganized right now, and the Mafia's objective is to keep us this way to keep Town from effectively countering Mafia.

 

[ExLight]

Actually, you know what?
ME is pretty much right about everything oof
If I try to push this even further it will only get in the way of new discussions.
I'll nap a little, seeyall non-Australians tomorrow.

 

[Kerest]

If I try to push this even further it will only get in the way of new discussions.
I'll nap a little, seeyall non-Australians tomorrow.

Hey, it only gets worse from here. We're pretty much on the verge of total town disintegration right now. Sadly, the probability curve did not variate from the expected outcome; if anything, it's followed exactly along the expected path.

Current probability of a Mafia victory: 93.7%

Let's see if things go unexpected tomorrow.

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

SMS is a neighbourizer, I was added to the neighbourhood during the night.

Okay, this verifies SMS's claim that he targeted Zinn, and the later explanation of how SMS came to learn he was Neighborizer makes sense, as well.
Willing to believe this for now. However, this casts a bit of doubt on Kerest/Eresh who claimed that she believes her action only affects Town and Indeps, but not scum.
Neighborizer was one potential option for that, but it's taken...so that kinda leaves Cult as a viable option.
@Kerest sorry if I missed this, but why do you assume that your action only affects Town and Indeps?

Vote: Maniacal Engineer

We only have his own word that he hasn't checked his role or alignment, regardless ME can sway the game very easily because people tend to think he's 100% town and never doubt him.

Okay, so it's time for me to explain why I'm playing this game the way that I am, which includes keeping myself blind for as long as possible.

The first reason was for personal challenge. I want to see just how far I can get in a game without knowing anything about myself, my wincon, or my role. See how accurate my reads on other players can be from a completely neutral standpoint, and have some fun along the way.
At the time I signed up for the game, this was the only reason I was going to try this.

However, developments that have occurred since I signed up literally a week ago have kinda given me a second reason to so do.
Tomorrow, I will be going in for a medical procedure that can, and probably will, temporarily leave me without the use of my right arm. As background, I've been living with near constant agony for about month now, and this has been happening for years in the warmer/humid/rainy weather.
Not gonna lie, I am terrified right now, and I am using this mafia game as a means of having fun. My main goal here was always to have fun, but now, I literally don't care if I win or lose. I need the release, and I want to play looser and more nonsensical than usual.
Policy lynch me, if you think I'm going to interfere too much. I don't really care at this point...

 

[Kerest]

Okay, this verifies SMS's claim that he targeted Zinn, and the later explanation of how SMS came to learn he was Neighborizer makes sense, as well.
Willing to believe this for now. However, this casts a bit of doubt on Kerest/Eresh who claimed that she believes her action only affects Town and Indeps, but not scum.
Neighborizer was one potential option for that, but it's taken...so that kinda leaves Cult as a viable option.
@Kerest sorry if I missed this, but why do you assume that your action only affects Town and Indeps?

I'm pretty much guessing and making leaps of logic in hopes I get some kind of answer. At this point, for all I know I'm just a survivor.

Okay, so it's time for me to explain why I'm playing this game the way that I am, which includes keeping myself blind for as long as possible.

The first reason was for personal challenge. I want to see just how far I can get in a game without knowing anything about myself, my wincon, or my role. See how accurate my reads on other players can be from a completely neutral standpoint, and have some fun along the way.
At the time I signed up for the game, this was the only reason I was going to try this.

However, developments that have occurred since I signed up literally a week ago have kinda given me a second reason to so do.
Tomorrow, I will be going in for a medical procedure that can, and probably will, temporarily leave me without the use of my right arm. As background, I've been living with near constant agony for about month now, and this has been happening for years in the warmer/humid/rainy weather.
Not gonna lie, I am terrified right now, and I am using this mafia game as a means of having fun. My main goal here was always to have fun, but now, I literally don't care if I win or lose. I need the release, and I want to play looser and more nonsensical than usual.
Policy lynch me, if you think I'm going to interfere too much. I don't really care at this point...

I'm sorry to hear that. I hope it goes far better for you than is likely.

 

[The Sun Fan]

Moe lied about what the post's initial assumption was.

I think he just doesn't get it
moe, those thoughts are congruent

 

[The Sun Fan]

how the **** do you guess Neighborizer the first day btw
that's actually insane