GAME THREAD: Dark Souls Mafia

[Fext]

But even so I don't think Seanzie is playing his strongest town game here.

so you acknowledge he's playing his town game?

 

[Fext]

legit though I'm gonna need more than that to take somebody out of contention D1

if that's your reasoning in any way it's probably better to just lynch a no-poster and pray lmao

 

[Fext]

or well, take somebody out of the game

not out of contention

 

[Ragnarokio]

To reiterate, I'd like everyone to claim who they think they'd target tonight if they were the hider. I'm pinging people who have been active since I asked but haven't responded just to make sure they saw the question. Apologies if you did respond and I just missed it.

People who have claimed prospective targets since I've asked:

ExLight of Londor: Ragnarokio
Ragnarokio of Astora: KoD with Exlight as backup
Kreal of Carim: Eli
Isett of Catarina: Seanzie
Minish: DawningWinds
Seanzie: Killjoy
Killjoy: Cynicalsquid

People who have posted since I asked but haven't claimed a prospective target since I asked
@Fext

People who have not posted since I've asked:
TL the legend of Forossa: ???
CynicalSquid of Astora: ???
DawningWinds of Astora: ???
Eli, Psycho of Mirrah: ???

 

[Ragnarokio]

and @KingofDominaria who i forgot to put on the list entirely

 

[Fext]

ExLight of Londor: Ragnarokio
Ragnarokio of Astora: KoD with Exlight as backup
Kreal of Carim: Eli
Isett of Catarina: Seanzie
Minish: DawningWinds
Seanzie: Killjoy
Killjoy: Cynicalsquid

Ideally we should hard enforce no single visits

 

[Ragnarokio]

not close enough to EoD to enforce that pairing

in particular I would probably not endorse a lynch on either atm

He said he wouldn't be here at EoD. He should definitely cast a vote on the leading competing wagon before he leaves given thats the case.

 

[Fext]

every claimed hider target should have at least two people visiting them

yes it doubles odds of the mafia being able to kill the hider, but people should take that into account when choosing who they visit and not claim to hide behind people they wouldn't be okay with being killed

because it cuts the odds of the RBer being able to fake a greencheck in half, which is STUPIDLY important especially if only one claimed target is actually scum

 

[Ragnarokio]

An extra death won't push forward LyLo a day, but two extra deaths will. There's a non-negligible chance we'll eventually have an extra death as a result of the hider, and so no-lynching could mean town gets one less lynch to solve the game which significantly decreases our chances of winning. For that reason its important we lynch someone today.

 

[Fext]

what

who was arguing we should nolynch

 

[Fext]

also this is 13p so that seems wrong - pretty sure starting on odds with an extra death would take away a town kill?

 

[Ragnarokio]

every claimed hider target should have at least two people visiting them

yes it doubles odds of the mafia being able to kill the hider, but people should take that into account when choosing who they visit and not claim to hide behind people they wouldn't be okay with being killed

because it cuts the odds of the RBer being able to fake a greencheck in half, which is STUPIDLY important especially if only one claimed target is actually scum

I've talked about why mafia using the RBer this way is a bad idea for them but I'll do it again. In order for mafia to get any mileage out of "faking a green check" the green check needs to be on mafia. If, for instance, ten people claim targets and one of them is on mafia, and the mafia RBs that person, then they have a 1/10 chance of giving themselves a green check and a 9/10 chance of wasting their roleblock. The hider generates a lot of value for town as the game goes on and so rather than gamble on a longshot that will rarely pan out and won't even generate them a ton of value if it does, the mafia should rather be much more interested in getting rid of the hider asap, and use the roleblocker to increase their chance of doing that (and decrease their chance of missing a hit, which gives town an extra lynch).

for the same reasons, making mafia have an easier time killing the hider is a bad idea for town.

 

[Ragnarokio]

what

who was arguing we should nolynch

i misread something you posted, ignore me

 

[Morbid Minish]

what are your thoughts on like

literally anything outside of Seanzie/KoD/Ex/DW/Numbers

That's not really what you talked about in the post.

But also like, they're the main posters of the game so of course I'm focused on them.
I already said you were town for your post about townreading people after claiming to have his behind them. I think that was a smart play and enough to just read you as town for now.

Kreaal and Eli's posts have not made any impressions on me for me to remember much of what they've said. Maybe that's a me issue, but I have no solid reads on them at the moment.

Rag just recently started posting. Don't want to lynch her right now but not strongly town reading her. A lot of talk about statistics and strategy, which admittedly comes from both town and scum Rag. I disagree with her suspecting Ex, but like her reasoning is okay even if I disagree with it. Since she has the right idea, but what sounds disingenuous to her doesn't to me.

Killjoy hasn't said much. Which makes me want to town lean him. He's been more active as scum and kinda all over the place. Don't think he has a team to bounce ideas off of. Could be wrong if he's scum with inactive teammates though.

also how did you arrive at like any of your stated conclusions within those names

Already explained that but I'll rehash it here.

Ex sounds genuine to me, like he does when town. Usually as scum he doesn't freak out unless it's near EOD and he has a big wagon on him. As town he freaks out thinking that he has a ton of votes when in reality he doesn't. Like what happened earlier. Also he's usually chill as scum in a way I'm not seeing here.

KoD is due to the fact that I agree with what he's been saying. We have a bit of history so that's not something we'd do easily. Also kinda think his post of saying he was new was good in a reaction test kinda way.

Numbers I've explained a lot. Level headed, good ideas/posts, wasn't really bothered by the early scum reads of him.

DW could go either way for me. Wanna lean town at the moment. Flipp flopping doesn't look great. But the frustration at Ex and vote thereafter felt genuine to me and the most logical reason for voting him out of anyone else. They started out strong though and kinda fizzled out.

 

[Ragnarokio]

Day 1: 9:3
Day 2: 7:3
Day 3: 5:3 (MyLo)

with extra death:

Day 1: 9:3
Day 2: 7:3
Day 3: 4:3 (LyLo)