You're assuming I'm wrong because you think this is still strictly about your maths but as Rag can attest, my stance has always been that maths doesn't solve Mafia games. I called your application dumb because you're literally manipulating data that you don't fully have per your claims. Let's jump into real facts. N1 is when you started saying I was scummy for having more money. At that time there were no flips, so you had no solid external information on any other player based on your claimed alignment and ability. You have now clarified that you making that statement is based on the probability of selecting a Mafia member from a smaller pool being more probable than selecting one from a larger pool. But let's break down those pools from your view point N1. In your larger pool breakdown you included yourself (as you are the only non earner you know). But there's no reason to do this because you know your own alignment. So when you look at the probability of you picking Mafia out of gen pop you aren't going to pick yourself, it's an automatic discount. But there's a reason why you did and that comes in when you're looking at earners. You have zero information on who else outside of you is an earner. That means that every other player besides you has the potential to be an earner and when you actually go calculate the probability everybody else is still on the table. So for your statement to be true you either have to discount possibilities or manipulate the formulas to make it true. Which brings us back around to you including yourself in the gen pop pool to ensure that your stance is sound formulaicly.
Further maths are never a good argument in Mafia because they don't take humanity into account. People lie, people withhold, and they generally act erratically (I bring this one up because Rag tried to maths the likelyhood of people's behavior before). For all you know Rag is out there robbing graves while she's Necro-ing bodies. KoD might be hobo pocket lifting. Scum may have decided to never pool their funds so they always look honest about their money.
With all of that said, my point has always been to show that you aren't actively game solving. The attacking of low hanging fruits is standard wolf protocol because they don't want to put themselves out there too much. They don't want to put readable content into the thread for themselves and they don't want to put readable content into the thread that might be used to connect other players to them, both to protect their mates and not incidentally clear any town. This is your behavior this game to a tee. The above shows how you sused me with information that, while easily assumable, wasn't factually true at the time you made the statement from your claimed perspective. Further, maths doesn't require you to actually read people or put stances into the thread. KoD you sussed on a 1 game meta despite multiple contradictions to that being AI, which makes it an easy place to park your vote so you don't have to address other reads. And Rag you never specified exactly what you found to be sus about it which isn't a hard reach given her behavior EoD2, but knowing rag is 3p says nothing about your alignment and also demonstrates you putting nothing solid into the thread.
If this has seemed defensive it's because I've been chipping away at the walls you're trying to hide behind. You're immediate reaction to my vote wasn't to show how you have been game solving, it was to attack my character. When I bit back you jumped into an "I'm not evening susing you anymore" stance. Those are both pretty scummy postures to take. The first aims to discredit arguments not by showing they're wrong, but just by trying to shift focus onto the source. The second attempts to diffuse aggression, but again doesn't actually address the concerns raised. So yeah, I'm perfectly comfortable with where my vote is for the rest of the day.
