Game Thread ExLight's Custom Role Mafia - ENDGAME [TOWN WINS]

[KingofDominaria]

I think you're all getting lost in understanding what I've been saying.

I'm not hesitating with my role on anything.

I'm flat out telling you, with no level of uncertainty, that I am NOT going to share what my role is. Full stop.


If you truly think I am scum because of that, then lynch me for it.

I am not making any excuses at all so do not make any for me. Am I busy? Sure. Does that mean I am unable to play? No. Clearly, as you can see, I am playing. Am I playing as much as you'd like? Too bad.


What you (mostly directed at Seanzie, somewhat directed at Mint and Rag) need to do is resolve how me being scum impacts what happened with Jinjo's lynch. In Rag's case, mostly, there is the idea that I am just not as present. Well, I was present for that round of voting. If I am truly mafia, why not push Seanzie with whoever else was on him to save Jinjo? Why not stay on Jinjo to bus? Why offer any reasoning at all for what I did?


That's what some of you are failing to do. In Seanzie's case, he's taking what he can get and running with it. Whether that equates to him being incapable of critical analysis remains to be seen. For my part, given how the voting turned out, I'm extremely sure he's town despite his disposition towards me; however, JD could be right in the scum/scum theory wrt to the wagons between Seanzie and Jinjo (in which case, Seanzie would slip completely by me).

I'd much more confident, given the voting from then, that Echo is probably scum here. Rag, admittedly, being self does make for a safer target in the event you'd expect Rag to betray us (and you can trust that Rag would to win a game). That said, the way Rag is playing is akin to how town Rag plays so I expect the analysis to be honest at the least.


@ Soul:

I believe you asked me two different things mostly about my role. I'm not answering either. Feel free to assume for w/e reason you want.

 

[Mint Elv]

JD could be right in the scum/scum theory wrt to the wagons between Seanzie and Jinjo (in which case, Seanzie would slip completely by me).

Who is JD? Maybe I missed it being said who this is, but who is it?

 

[KingofDominaria]

Numbers.

 

[15377]

For the record, I don't even majorly suspect numbers right now, but them saying my logic was dumb when the math is perfectly solid irked me.

It is dumb, not because your math is wrong but because your application is. You said that players with access to more than 1000 during night 1 had a higher probability to be be scum. Your math doesn't show that; you merely show how a player picked randomly out of the entire game has a lower probability of being scum than a player picked out of a smaller selection group without exact variables given. You aren't showing how it's a fact that the probability is higher, because you lack the information to do so. Your argument is tantamount to me saying that because we know scum voted day 2 you have a higher probability of being scum because you voted day 2. And that's just one example of how you can establish a smaller player set to arbitrarily throw suspicion on a player in this method without actually having to build a case on somebody.

As for the other part you stated I was scummy for refusing to target a player. I stated this was a misrepresentation and proceeded to show instance of thought beyond an absolute target while you have failed to produce a single instance of me refusing to target a player. A plan to target does not constitute an absolute resolve. You have too much experience to legitimately think it does, so the only conclusion is that you're intentionally misrepresenting the situation.

Not feeling this today.

Would rather Seanzie use his role lightning rod-like role first.

What do you think this will show? Legitimate question. I'm wondering what you plan to take away from it.

As for my view on Seanzie, if I had just said he was talking mechanics I might agree with you but I also said he was attacking low hanging fruit. You say that crossed your mind day 1 but from there he has only sused three players. Me for money, KoD for 1 game meta, and Rag for something EoD2 (I'm gonna assuming vote hopping?). Seanzie has literally put out no other thoughts on any other players, either to sus or clear. Being three days in with as much information being on the table as there is, he should be able to do a lot more.

I'm pretty sure you doc speculated in another post after this. I think given the sheer amount of death interactivity we have it's likely we don't have a doc.

@PK, that at least makes more sense flip wise. Not believing this game has a 3p doesn't make much sense, imo. And I didn't say Rag wasn't worth lynching, just that I decided to vote elsewhere today. If you think I'm not still watching Rag like a hawk you're sorely mistaken. Might be worth peeking for whoever picked up that role cop shot. Alternative use being KoD since he won't be speaking on his role.

@KoD, I'll take that as I nailed it again.

 

[KingofDominaria]

No.

Wait.

I see what you're doing.


Oh, you.

 

[Ragnarokio]

Maybe it would be better to vote for you instead. I have more reason to be suspicious of Rag, but you have said that they're not worth lynching. Killing you reveals two birds with one stone.

numbers claimed a self result on me and i confirmed it. Killing numbers won't tell you anything about his alignment, really, unless me and numbers are deep scum and we chose to fake a self result on me instead of a town result for some strange reason.

Benign 3ps are rare, so someone who claimed 3p is a fine target pretty much any day that there isn't a clear mafia target.

I think in ZD games serial killers can typically win with town, although I have the survivor wincon so I can't say whether or not thats true.
@Morbid Minish could probably confirm.

and that aside, we haven't had any two-death nights yet so Its pretty unlikely I'm advancing LyLo. PK also tracked me and confirmed that i didn't target any living players so even something like an arsonist variant is unlikely.

Skipping an opportunity to lynch mafia to get rid of me brings LyLo a day closer and (from an objective perspective) probably only has a slim chance of actually helping town.

 

[KingofDominaria]

Has a 100% chance of causing you to lose.

 

[Mint Elv]

think in ZD games serial killers can typically win with town,

How? Every SK I’ve seen has to be last one standing. I’m not familiar with ZD SKs so I’m genuinely curious how? And is ZD ExLights home site? If not then what’s to say he isn’t using his home site variant?

and that aside, we haven't had any two-death nights yet so Its pretty unlikely I'm advancing LyLo.

Could be that you A) have limited shots and didn’t get tripled because t would break the game. I know this is a possibility because when I asked Light if I hire more than a shot from storm he said that he considered if it would be game breaking or not.

2) You’re holding out for now to not be suspicious. Kill someone and everyone, both mafia and town are up in arms to lynch you.

C) You’re not an SK but you’re still an anti town indep.

PK also tracked me and confirmed that i didn't target any living players so even something like an arsonist variant is unlikely.

Didn’t he track you one night? We’ve had two. You could have been silent one night and active another.

Skipping an opportunity to lynch mafia to get rid of me brings LyLo a day closer

Not if you’re an anti town indep. Town wincon is to eliminate all threats. Not eliminate all mafia. Eliminate all threats. That implies the possibility of someone outside of mafia being a threat to town.

 

[Mint Elv]

I just double checked Jinjos role PM to see the mafia wincon. Even mafia says all other threats!

Im starting to feel a rag lynch.

 

[Seanzie]

It is dumb, not because your math is wrong but because your application is. You said that players with access to more than 1000 during night 1 had a higher probability to be be scum. Your math doesn't show that; you merely show how a player picked randomly out of the entire game has a lower probability of being scum than a player picked out of a smaller selection group without exact variables given. You aren't showing how it's a fact that the probability is higher, because you lack the information to do so. Your argument is tantamount to me saying that because we know scum voted day 2 you have a higher probability of being scum because you voted day 2. And that's just one example of how you can establish a smaller player set to arbitrarily throw suspicion on a player in this method without actually having to build a case on somebody.

As for the other part you stated I was scummy for refusing to target a player. I stated this was a misrepresentation and proceeded to show instance of thought beyond an absolute target while you have failed to produce a single instance of me refusing to target a player. A plan to target does not constitute an absolute resolve. You have too much experience to legitimately think it does, so the only conclusion is that you're intentionally misrepresenting the situation.



What do you think this will show? Legitimate question. I'm wondering what you plan to take away from it.

As for my view on Seanzie, if I had just said he was talking mechanics I might agree with you but I also said he was attacking low hanging fruit. You say that crossed your mind day 1 but from there he has only sused three players. Me for money, KoD for 1 game meta, and Rag for something EoD2 (I'm gonna assuming vote hopping?). Seanzie has literally put out no other thoughts on any other players, either to sus or clear. Being three days in with as much information being on the table as there is, he should be able to do a lot more.

I'm pretty sure you doc speculated in another post after this. I think given the sheer amount of death interactivity we have it's likely we don't have a doc.

@PK, that at least makes more sense flip wise. Not believing this game has a 3p doesn't make much sense, imo. And I didn't say Rag wasn't worth lynching, just that I decided to vote elsewhere today. If you think I'm not still watching Rag like a hawk you're sorely mistaken. Might be worth peeking for whoever picked up that role cop shot. Alternative use being KoD since he won't be speaking on his role.

@KoD, I'll take that as I nailed it again.

You know, I started arguing wirh you just because your language was dismissive, and I don't like being talked to like that, so I wanted to show you how you're wrong.

I was trying to explain my perspective on you during N1 because I had more-or-less softened on you when you claimed to target Rag.

However... talking with you just now... you're defensive. You're scared. Are you scared because I literally mathematically proved you wrong (and my "application" has literally been proven correct from every flip we've seen and almost everyone's claims) is it something else? I'm starting to think it is something else. Maybe... you don't have an extra source of income...

I'd elim numbers today. KoD, Rag, Numbers, any of them are fine with me.

 

[Morbid Minish]

I think in ZD games serial killers can typically win with town, although I have the survivor wincon so I can't say whether or not thats true.
@Morbid Minish could probably confirm.

I don't think it's typical. It has been the case at least a couple of times I believe. But I believe more often than not I've seen that SK has to be last person standing. Though it's been a good while since I've seen SK anyways. I believe one case of SK winning with town was in one of Pen's mafia games where there were two SK's and I believe their goals were to kill the other one and survive? But I could be misremembering. But it is true that in the past SKs have been able to win with town, just not typically in my recollection.


I'm not really down to lynch Rag today. I generally don't like lynching 3rd party until mafia is gone and the game hasn't ended. Unless it were obvious that we had another killing role, but we've only seen one kill a night.

@Mint Elv how did you feel about Rag eod 2? I feel like a lot of people were sus of her actions eod and she seemed like a good candidate to be scum. Why not steal her role pm?


I don't want to lynch Echo, Soul, Kod, Numbers, or Rag today I think. The first three of those probably being my strongest town reads. I need to re-read some stuff though. Been super busy the past two days so haven't gotten to give things a thorough look through.

 

[Ragnarokio]

How? Every SK I’ve seen has to be last one standing. I’m not familiar with ZD SKs so I’m genuinely curious how? And is ZD ExLights home site? If not then what’s to say he isn’t using his home site variant?

They basically just function as a survivor with a night kill. Based on what minish said it sounds like i may have been mistaken though. Ex primarily plays on here and on bulbagarden but i don't know which he considers his homesite, if either, or where he played first, if either.

Could be that you A) have limited shots and didn’t get tripled because t would break the game. I know this is a possibility because when I asked Light if I hire more than a shot from storm he said that he considered if it would be game breaking or not.

Its certainly possible (from an objective perspective), i just don't think the evidence suggests it. There's been no extra kills and i was tracked and didn't target a living player on night 2. These both lower the odds of my having an anti-town role.

2) You’re holding out for now to not be suspicious. Kill someone and everyone, both mafia and town are up in arms to lynch you.

Its a given that if my role had anti-town aspects I'd hide them, and it makes sense from a town perspective to kill me because of that possibility, but i think the value of lynching me is lower than the value of attempting to lynch mafia, because mafia are a guaranteed threat and i'm only a possible one.

C) You’re not an SK but you’re still an anti town indep.

Didn’t he track you one night? We’ve had two. You could have been silent one night and active another.

He tracked me on night 2 and found that i visited the graveyard but did not visit any living players. This proves that I have a dead-player targeting ability as i claimed. While its possible that I could have done something on night 1, we don't have any negative effects unaccounted for and i would have to have an extra ability in addition to my dead-player targeting one, and so believing that i did something bad to a player on night 1 requires multiple prerequisite assumptions.

Not if you’re an anti town indep. Town wincon is to eliminate all threats. Not eliminate all mafia. Eliminate all threats. That implies the possibility of someone outside of mafia being a threat to town.

LyLo assuming I'm a survivor is on day 5, where if one townie is lynched every day and night we'll have 5 left on day 5, and presumably 2 mafia and myself.

LyLo assuming i'm someone the town is required to kill is either tomorrow or on day 5, depending on how the wincons and abilities work out. With a 2/2/1 split you need to lynch mafia, which assuming a successful NK the following day results in a 1/1/1 split and then if mafia are lynched again it'd be a stalemate the following day, which could mean the game ends in a draw or something. In theory if I were a threat to town I'd have some sort of wincon that would result in me winning the game at or before that point, possibly to town's detriment. Night actions could feasibly make things go a little differently.

If you lynch me LyLo is still on day 5, but with a 3/2 split instead of a 2/2/1 split.

So i guess you're right in that lynching me could potentially push back lylo in some scenarios.

n3 - 8
d4 - 7
n4 - 6
d5

 

[Morbid Minish]

Ex primarily plays on here and on bulbagarden but i don't know which he considers his homesite, if either, or where he played first, if either.

Ex originally came from Bulba. I think he plays here more now but only because Bulba doesn't play as much anymore.
Though that might have changed with our like 6 month or whatever break.


It's interesting that Mafia killed DW when they said that they had mostly scum beneficial items left.
@ExLight can people in private chats give their money to each other or just pool it for items? Like if two people are in a private chat and one person has $500 and the other has $1000, can the first just give the second all of their money? And if the first person dies does the second person keep it? Like if one Mafia member dies with money is it gone or does it go to their scumbuds?

 

[ExLight]

Since y'all talking about -Lo I'd like to remind yall that neither MyLo or LyLo will be announced.

@ExLight can people in private chats give their money to each other or just pool it for items? Like if two people are in a private chat and one person has $500 and the other has $1000, can the first just give the second all of their money? And if the first person dies does the second person keep it? Like if one Mafia member dies with money is it gone or does it go to their scumbuds?

hmm

I will not publicly enter into the details on how it works. I'll only reply this question privately and only if the person asking has access to this ability.

.

 

[Mint Elv]

@Mint Elv how did you feel about Rag eod 2? I feel like a lot of people were sus of her actions eod and she seemed like a good candidate to be scum. Why not steal her role pm?

Honestly at that time they didn’t stick out to me much. At least not to the point of paranoia like with Soul, and that paranoia was that if they were roleplaying then I wouldn’t be able to get a proper read on them. Ironically turned out right.

I chose Light because I wanted to be able to confirm once and for all that he didn’t need to be bothered with.

I was deciding between people and hadn’t put any placeholders down like an idiot, and just ran out of time. I went from having one shot to three shots but the decision was still a difficult one. If I hadn’t come out right away then chances are everyone would assume it was mafia, and then by the time the truth came out no one would believe it was town intentions.

Mafia would definitely see the need to hide it, but I don’t see why I should hide my role as town.

The whole role PM erasing but freaked me out a little hinestly because Light explained it as possibly hindering more complicated roles, and that made me hesitant as well.

Not all of us have the confidence to recklessly use such a role.