Game Thread ExLight's Custom Role Mafia - ENDGAME [TOWN WINS]

[SoulAdvent]

@KingofDominaria Why did you pick the flavor cop over the watcher role? Do you disagree with what Ragnarokio says and that flavor cop is better? If so, why is flavor cop better? Thank you :3

Random lol but saying this makes me think of Scrum Debate of when you match what two characters say from Danganronpa V3 -https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=32GWbQt_Zn4 xD

 

[SoulAdvent]

Here's something interesting. Mafia don't necessarily win just by controlling the vote. I'm not sure if that means they might have more win conditions or if it means that items and abilities can change the balance of power there.

Which means there's a slim chance that they might need to lynch Exlight to win.

Hmmmm you think so?

If there is an extra player that can harm the Mafia and the Town, then that’s what it could mean

I don’t like the idea of hunting down the host, when we have wolves to stab ^_^

 

[SoulAdvent]

Town
Laurentus - I can see all the points they made against me when they first entered coming from a town mindset; reading the posts I definitely understand why they were getting the impression they were, and the following reevalution of my thought process as they read through the thread shows they were willing to see different possibilities for my alignment; I think they're pretty town.
KingOfDominaria - Numbers explained why the flavourcop thing isn't nearly as risky, even from a scum's perspective, as I thought it was, so that does hurt my townread on him some, but I do still think he's most likely town. The flavourcop thing was still the first thing to get discussion rolling,
SoulAdvent - They're willing to shift their stances in a natural-feeling way as new info comes up. I like their initiative on asking people to give their top scum reads and going through and explaining why. Overall really good vibes from them.
Mint Elv - While I say later I think PK makes good points for her scumminess, I disagree with those points; her misunderstanding of things feel generally pretty natural, not as intentional misrepping, and she feels like she's actually trying to figure out where people are. Generally feeling good about her.
Morbid Minish and Ragnarkio - Nothing concrete, but I'm getting townish vibes from both of them.

Null
Jinjo - I think I'd usually expect more from her, but at this point I don't think its something I want to push her over
EchoLight - I completely forgot they were in the game.
Seanzie - The main thing he's done is vote the host, which could come from either faction. On one hand, town could genuinely expect to get something from it, on the other, as mafia, it could be a way to 100% guarantee no one on his team is getting lynched. The other thing that comes to mind is the bribery strategy, which could also be beneficial to either faction- he could've been scum hoping to betray his team for an easy win, or town thinking getting scum to do so would be a fast way to win.

Scum
Paranoid King - Kinda scummy? I don't know how I feel about the "I'm gonna buy 100% of everything"; a lot of people have given reasons for having everything on one person being bad; and further, I feel like promising to take it all assumes most of the other people buying are not on his team, which most likely means scum to me, though that's kinda tinfoily maybe. He also tossed out a readlist and never really elaborated on any of the reads except Mint, even though he was asked to explain why he townread his townreads. That said, I think he makes good points in his Mint reads about her questions seeming dishonest, but immediately saying that they don't seem to be so consciously makes it seem like he actually just thinks she's misreading things (which is what I'm inclined to believe), making his scumread on her seem more dishonest.

15377 - Scummy I think. Most of their posts are mainly commenting on KoD's flavourcop thing, but despite saying on several occasions they disagree with the notion that flavourcop thing makes KoD town, they don't ever state what their read on KoD is. They also say leaving me alive because the money thing is a risk for everyone but seem to think I will win the money minigame (this was before I outed I only receive 30% of what I was given and that I had no clue where the rest went, so this did appear pretty guaranteed at the time); if they're scum, they could've been planning to have me side with them later, exactly as Soul suggested.

Storm - Kicking things off by giving your reads is a nice start, but it didn't keep up, and with it having been so early it just feels kinda pointless. None of his posts besides then feel like they've had any worthwhile content, so I'm not really trusting him. Also agree with Soul on him saying "talking gets you killed" is a good way to excuse not talking, especially since it directly contradicts my experience here.

DawningWinds - They outed their money role and still haven't fully explained how it works in its entirety, only trickling out information as it protects them from dying. Selfpres much?

Vote: Paranoid King

I will need to check on Paranoid King (more work for me xD) but I think you missed Ragnarokio?

I want to hear more from 15377 about what you said before I say something about it.

Storm smells like an animal more than Paranoid King for me but I will check fast.

 

[DawningWinds]

I will need to check on Paranoid King (more work for me xD) but I think you missed Ragnarokio?

Rag and Minish are on the same line because I didn't feel like repeating the same thing twice in a row.

Storm smells like an animal more than Paranoid King for me but I will check fast.

Storm definitely reeks of wolf as well but I'm slightly more inclined to give him a little time to start talking once called out, to see if I get any sort of good vibes once he starts doing so. Are we at a tie right now? If so I'll move my vote but if not its fine where its at I think.

 

[DawningWinds]

@ExLight can we get a vote count quick?

 

[DawningWinds]

Okay if I'm counting right we're not still at a tie of a bunch of people at one but I do not feel like lynching the host, so I guess I'm gonna make it a tie instead and hope it rands Storm.
Unvote: Paranoid King
Vote: Storm

 

[SoulAdvent]

Unvote.

Vote: Exlight

Ohhh right, you voted me before. Sorry but I do not believe you answered me?

You can no longer say anything else but vote?

 

[ExLight]

Votecount 1.9.

ExLight (2) - Storm, Seanzie
Mint Elv (1) - Paranoid King
KingOfDominaria (1) - Ragnarokio
Storm (2) - SoulAdvent, DawningWinds
Not voting (7) - Laurentus, KoD, 15377, EchoLight, Mint Elv, Jinjo, Minish

Phase shortening (1) - Storm
Add Hammer Rules (3) - Seanzie, Ragnarokio, Storm


Phase ends on April 23rd, at 9:00:00 PM (GMT-3).
DEADLINE COUNTDOWN

1h UNTIL DEADLINE

 

[SoulAdvent]

I'm excited! This seems like it'll be a fun game, and I love hidden roles.

I suspect KoD doesn't want their own role outed, and is going ham about identifying other people to cover that up. Therefore, I can only conclude that KoD is...

The Betrayer!

(That being the most ominous sounding role.)

Not very. I'm just tossing around ideas I haven't seen discussed yet. I'm running off of the same information you are.

I think being very vocal about scanning someone is a good idea. It starts a discussion about being scanned, and someone acting too nervous or too cavalier about being scanned might be a good target to get interesting info from. I don't think it'll be very effective, but even a small hint is better than nothing on the first day.


Probably. The gambler is another one that might require money, but I think marketeer is more likely.

I could imagine a market existing even without a marketeer, just so money can move around more easily.
I wonder how a marketeer getting money from the market works with the "richest player wins" mechanic. Maybe they don't start with any money and need to get all their money through sales? Because otherwise, it seems like they'd be a shoe-in for that.
Or maybe they don't get money from sales, but they take all the unsold items at the end of each day.

That's true. But even if it's not optimal, I think it's a good play, regardless of alignment. Saying "I will hunt you down and expose your role to everyone," is aggressive, but that's kinda what you need to get results.


It's only scummy if we have excellent reasons to believe that the planner is town-aligned. Otherwise discussion is a good thing. Mafia have more information and more heads to put together than we do. If we can figure something out, they probably can too.

Also, as Rag mentioned, buying an item is equally helpful for both town and scum, because one team buying something denies the other team the opportunity. I'm inclined to think KoD is town, but more because they plan to publicly reveal the role than because they bought the item.

Let me put it another way.

Mafia have the ability to discuss outside of thread. This gives them an advantage. Open discussion in thread puts everyone back on equal footing. If mafia know something that was discussed in thread, town does too.

The idea is to keep secrets that mafia don't know about, while discussing things they are likely to talk about. Because of KoD's challenge, mafia is likely to talk about them. So discussing it in thread brings everyone up to speed.


Actually, would you mind elaborating on this? At best, talking about plans in thread would be a bad idea, not scummy.


Now I'm curious. This is a zero-sum game. What is good for one team is bad for the other. How would it be more important for one team to buy an item than the other?

I think I get where you're coming from, but I still disagree. It doesn't keep mafia in the dark. It just means we don't know whether or not they are in the dark. Discussing things in thread might give mafia ideas, but it also lets the planner know that those ideas are being considered. And discussion about a reaction test is still a reaction to that test.


Buying something does 2 things: give you an advantage, and stop the other team from gaining an advantage. One team might get more advantage out of an item than the other, which means the benefit in the other team stopping them is higher. It equalizes. I think mafia generally have a higher absolute advantage in buying items, because they know how to not hit their teammates, but that makes it more important for town to stop them from doing that.

All that said, I plan to buy every item from now on, and let people know what I bought, even if I don't have enough actions to use them.

This is because not using an item is is as much a comparative advantage for town as mafia using an item. Ideally, this will also make mafia act quickly to grab items before discussing them.


That's an interesting idea. Alternatively, if we only kill people who haven't spent any money yet, it should be possible for them to win anyways.

I'm sure ex has thrown in some trick or something, so people can get more than $1000 and make those people lose.



I suspect that, not believe it. It's a good reason to buy something like that.

I'm also going to drop a vote on Laurentus. I don't think I've heard anything from them yet.

Vote: Laurentus

Because if we're going to vote someone out on the first day, I'd rather vote out someone who's not contributing.
Come to think of it though, the pinch hitters will probably step in if they stay inactive. That's not something I'm used to.

Off the top of my head. KoD, DW, and Minish lean town. Storm, Mint, Sean, and Rag lean scum. No opinion on Numbers, Echo, Jingo, or Soul, though that's mostly because I can't remember anything they've said. And Laur hasn't contributed.

Unless

Nope, I'm just dead wrong here.

It's difficult to translate a vibe into concrete reasons, but let me give it a try.

The majority of your posts have been questions. Often those questions blow mischaracterize people's original positions into something more outlandish. For example, in your first post:

Not an unreasonable question, but the way it's phrased makes it an exaggeration of the position. It feels dishonest. A more honest way to ask would be something like, "Are you considering Dawn as mafia just because they're questioning you?" It's more directly relevant to the point at hand and doesn't assume as much.

Or here:

Again, they laid out their reasons why they think it is unlikely that mafia!KoD would do something like this. But the question has been mischaracterized to focus on how it's a bold move, rather than a move that requires them to follow up later. Of course mafia make bold moves. But that wasn't the point.

I don't think these questions are being consciously mischaracterized, but I think it still feels dishonest.


No, of course not. I generally don't try to guess every member of the mafia team simultaneously, before we have any confirmed info. But again, this feels like a mischaracterization that redirects away from actual reasons to be suspicious. Maybe it's just a tone difference, but that's why I'm suspicious of you.

I townread the people I do because they feel more honest about their discussion.

Here's something interesting. Mafia don't necessarily win just by controlling the vote. I'm not sure if that means they might have more win conditions or if it means that items and abilities can change the balance of power there.

Which means there's a slim chance that they might need to lynch Exlight to win.

@DawningWinds

Where was PKing asked about elaborating his reads? I would like to hear PKing speak before I say anything though. :|

 

[Ragnarokio]

good morning

i see there is one hour to deadline

 

[DawningWinds]

@DawningWinds

Where was PKing asked about elaborating his reads? I would like to hear PKing speak before I say anything though. :|

Mint Elv asked him to explain why he townread the people he did, he never answered that question.

 

[Ragnarokio]

i don't really have a strong preference for lynch at this point. I'd rather not lynch the host because some people suggested it was a bad thing and i don't think anyone brought up any instances where it actually worked out for the town

KoD is probably my top bet atm still. I feel like as town he'd normally do more to try and lynch someone, and so his relative passivity strikes me as unusual. I feel like he'd normally emulate his town meta pretty well as wolf though so this is mostly NAI.

I'll switch my vote to storm to prevent an exlight lynch if it comes to it. Storm is a pretty hard slot to read so i wouldn't mind getting him out of the way earlier anyways.

 

[DawningWinds]

And he quoted said question in the post where he was detailing his read on Mint Elv, which makes it more egregious.

 

[Mint Elv]

Vote: SoulAdvent

Why? I know you’ve unvoted and devoted light by now but why did you vote souladvent?

When they said every item, I took it to mean every item. Like, as soon as another one is for sale, they'll grab it, and continue to do so until they run out of money, or until the end of the game. And not let anyone else buy anything, or at least try to. Technically, if they do buy every item, that is the same as hoarding.

If they do that and they're town, great!
If they're scum, ehhh no

But I was reading it wrong? Will they let others buy items too? Because the way they wrote it, it seemed they were going to try and buy every item to keep a potential scum player from taking it.

'When the opportunity rises' sounds very vague. Basically anytime there's an item and they have money is an opportunity lol

I think the reason no one really bothered commenting on it is it doesn’t matter. The bidding and buying is private. There’s no way of knowing how much money someone has or who got what without announcing it. He can say he plans to buy everything but that doesnt mean he wasn’t outbid in secret.

And even then unless someone is cleared 100% there’s no proof that they’re not lying about what they have. Even cleared people could lie.

Though I don’t find the thought pattern of buy all so mafia can’t to be scummy.

@Storm Theres a bit of time left do you have a defense?

I believe I’ve made it clear that I don’t want to lynch the host so I’ll also switch to Storm if he doesn’t come in.

 

[Mint Elv]

Also to clarify. I agree with the case on Storm. His talkers will be lynched comment and general lack of activity does seem like an excuse for him to lurk.