Lozjam
A Cool, Cool Mountain
So, now that we are 13 days after launch, it's time to reflect how the Switch is doing, and what Nintendo needs to do to carry this success.
So, the verdict so far on Switch? It's a massive success. It actually is Nintendo's biggest launch of a system overall, and it's not even a holiday season! It even has a bigger launch than the Sony and Microsoft consoles in some territories. The console is pretty much completely sold out in Japan, France, and the United States. Which, admittedly, is disappointing for the consumer.
To those that were saying that a weak launch would negatively effect the system, you were completely and dead wrong. Zelda and Bomberman was enough. Why is this? Well.... It's a Nintendo system. The hardcore fans were going to buy this system for Zelda alone anyway. It doesn't matter whether or not MK8 or Mario Odyssey came to the console.... Because it would have still sold out regardless, and that would actually have negatively affected Nintendo's software sales. We are currently looking at an attach rate of Breath of the Wild of 90%. Having those other games at launch would have actually decreased sales of Breath of the Wild. So it is way better to have a light launch, with more on the way soon. And as we have saw, the system was not hampered by only having a couple of games at launch.
Suffice to say however, is that BotW undoubtedly created the success of the Switch as we know it. This critical darling completely justified Switch sales for many people. However, a successful launch does not lead to a successful console. Console launches are going to be successful regardless. Hell, the Wii U had a successful launch with the uninspired NSMBU, and a surprisingly fun, glorified tech demo.
So, what's the secret to a console doing well in the future? Momentum. The system had a guaranteed good launch, but they need to make sure that this momentum was lost. Both the Wii U and 3DS lost their momentum because there were no games released on either system until 6 months after launch. The 3DS managed to come back from this mistake, becoming a massively successful handheld, but the Wii U didn't.
Nintendo needs to keep this momentum going with convincing software, and good Ol' positive word of mouth. I bet many are surprised how well the Switch is doing when you have all of this negativity on the Internet.... But to me, it's not surprising. While I have not even held a Switch yet, a lot of impressions from friends and others that I know state that they were so surprised of the quality of the hardware, and that it is so cool! You see, this is the reason: people on the Internet are the vast minority of consumers. People do not care about specs, people only care about software, how good a game looks, and how cool a piece of technology. Let me specify about "how good a game looks". This is a case where technical specs still do not matter. I actually have many friends who watched me play BotW on the Inferior Wii U, and still say how amazing the game looked. Yes, the Switch has inferior specifications to the XBO and PS4, however, the novelty of the device is going to be it's selling point, especially with good software. I think the return of couch co-op gaming(on the go) will really help Nintendo here. This allows people to show off their system, and give friends, family, and even complete strangers to try out the Switch. This type of gaming is now more accessible than it has ever been, so multiplayer games like Mariokart 8 will be a hit. I only hope we get more really fun multiplayer experiences(a proper Mario Party game anyone?)
Speaking of software however, Nintendo needs to have minimal software droughts, but not only that, they need to make sure their games are good. The Wii U saw a massive downgrade in quality of software, with terrible games like Mario Tennis Ultra Smash, Mario Party 10, Amiibo Festival, and Star Fox Zero. Not only that, but there were some really good, but still disappointing games as well with games like 3D World. As of right now, we have Mariokart 8 Deluxe, Street Fighter 2, ARMs, Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, Skyrim, Dragon Quest 11, Sonic 2017, and Super Mario Odyssey coming in 2017(these are the high profile releases of the system, I am also not counting Xenoblade 2 because I personally think it will be delayed). These titles, unlike the Wii U's games, look incredibly ambitious, and new(with a direct sequel and an enhanced port in the mix). However, these new games have to be good in order for the Switch to be successful in the future. Not only that, but they need to show that they will have a lot more presence in 2018 as well.
Lastly, they really need to iron out issues. Launch issues always occur, but they need to have these fixed by the system's grand super launch by November 2017. They need to make sure online is almost flawless, they need to iron out all of the joycon issues. They also need to have virtual console, with a wide selection of games to choose from. It's actually really smart to release a console in March, as it allows the system to make up for issues before the holiday season. It's suffice to say, it's November 2017, where everything picks up. The system will have numerous games for it, fully functioning online, and a robust selection of indies as well. Not only that, but if Mario Odyssey is as much of a critical darling as BotW, that's going to be very tasty for consumers.
So, tildr:
the things that the Switch needs to do succeed:
Have a steady stream of really good games.
Fix out hardware issues.
Implement proper online services and make sure it's good.
Make sure that plenty of people are playing the Switch in person
Misconceptions of the Switch:
A weak launch lineup will make terrible sales(already disproven)
Having specs to compete with XBO and PS4 is 100% necessary, even though it's a portable console
A strong launch means for a strong sales for a system across the board(Nintendo still has to put in a lot of work to make this little guy successful).
With all of these things in mind, and if Nintendo does everything right. I suspect that by March 3rd, 2018, the system will have outsold the Wii U though. There's still plenty that can go wrong, and plenty that Nintendo needs to do right, but I think if these steps are taken, it will prove very good for Nintendo.
What do you forum dwellers think? Do you guys own the Switch(I sure don't), do you think it can carry this momentum from this successful launch?
So, the verdict so far on Switch? It's a massive success. It actually is Nintendo's biggest launch of a system overall, and it's not even a holiday season! It even has a bigger launch than the Sony and Microsoft consoles in some territories. The console is pretty much completely sold out in Japan, France, and the United States. Which, admittedly, is disappointing for the consumer.
To those that were saying that a weak launch would negatively effect the system, you were completely and dead wrong. Zelda and Bomberman was enough. Why is this? Well.... It's a Nintendo system. The hardcore fans were going to buy this system for Zelda alone anyway. It doesn't matter whether or not MK8 or Mario Odyssey came to the console.... Because it would have still sold out regardless, and that would actually have negatively affected Nintendo's software sales. We are currently looking at an attach rate of Breath of the Wild of 90%. Having those other games at launch would have actually decreased sales of Breath of the Wild. So it is way better to have a light launch, with more on the way soon. And as we have saw, the system was not hampered by only having a couple of games at launch.
Suffice to say however, is that BotW undoubtedly created the success of the Switch as we know it. This critical darling completely justified Switch sales for many people. However, a successful launch does not lead to a successful console. Console launches are going to be successful regardless. Hell, the Wii U had a successful launch with the uninspired NSMBU, and a surprisingly fun, glorified tech demo.
So, what's the secret to a console doing well in the future? Momentum. The system had a guaranteed good launch, but they need to make sure that this momentum was lost. Both the Wii U and 3DS lost their momentum because there were no games released on either system until 6 months after launch. The 3DS managed to come back from this mistake, becoming a massively successful handheld, but the Wii U didn't.
Nintendo needs to keep this momentum going with convincing software, and good Ol' positive word of mouth. I bet many are surprised how well the Switch is doing when you have all of this negativity on the Internet.... But to me, it's not surprising. While I have not even held a Switch yet, a lot of impressions from friends and others that I know state that they were so surprised of the quality of the hardware, and that it is so cool! You see, this is the reason: people on the Internet are the vast minority of consumers. People do not care about specs, people only care about software, how good a game looks, and how cool a piece of technology. Let me specify about "how good a game looks". This is a case where technical specs still do not matter. I actually have many friends who watched me play BotW on the Inferior Wii U, and still say how amazing the game looked. Yes, the Switch has inferior specifications to the XBO and PS4, however, the novelty of the device is going to be it's selling point, especially with good software. I think the return of couch co-op gaming(on the go) will really help Nintendo here. This allows people to show off their system, and give friends, family, and even complete strangers to try out the Switch. This type of gaming is now more accessible than it has ever been, so multiplayer games like Mariokart 8 will be a hit. I only hope we get more really fun multiplayer experiences(a proper Mario Party game anyone?)
Speaking of software however, Nintendo needs to have minimal software droughts, but not only that, they need to make sure their games are good. The Wii U saw a massive downgrade in quality of software, with terrible games like Mario Tennis Ultra Smash, Mario Party 10, Amiibo Festival, and Star Fox Zero. Not only that, but there were some really good, but still disappointing games as well with games like 3D World. As of right now, we have Mariokart 8 Deluxe, Street Fighter 2, ARMs, Splatoon 2, Fire Emblem Warriors, Skyrim, Dragon Quest 11, Sonic 2017, and Super Mario Odyssey coming in 2017(these are the high profile releases of the system, I am also not counting Xenoblade 2 because I personally think it will be delayed). These titles, unlike the Wii U's games, look incredibly ambitious, and new(with a direct sequel and an enhanced port in the mix). However, these new games have to be good in order for the Switch to be successful in the future. Not only that, but they need to show that they will have a lot more presence in 2018 as well.
Lastly, they really need to iron out issues. Launch issues always occur, but they need to have these fixed by the system's grand super launch by November 2017. They need to make sure online is almost flawless, they need to iron out all of the joycon issues. They also need to have virtual console, with a wide selection of games to choose from. It's actually really smart to release a console in March, as it allows the system to make up for issues before the holiday season. It's suffice to say, it's November 2017, where everything picks up. The system will have numerous games for it, fully functioning online, and a robust selection of indies as well. Not only that, but if Mario Odyssey is as much of a critical darling as BotW, that's going to be very tasty for consumers.
So, tildr:
the things that the Switch needs to do succeed:
Have a steady stream of really good games.
Fix out hardware issues.
Implement proper online services and make sure it's good.
Make sure that plenty of people are playing the Switch in person
Misconceptions of the Switch:
A weak launch lineup will make terrible sales(already disproven)
Having specs to compete with XBO and PS4 is 100% necessary, even though it's a portable console
A strong launch means for a strong sales for a system across the board(Nintendo still has to put in a lot of work to make this little guy successful).
With all of these things in mind, and if Nintendo does everything right. I suspect that by March 3rd, 2018, the system will have outsold the Wii U though. There's still plenty that can go wrong, and plenty that Nintendo needs to do right, but I think if these steps are taken, it will prove very good for Nintendo.
What do you forum dwellers think? Do you guys own the Switch(I sure don't), do you think it can carry this momentum from this successful launch?