Game Thread Guess Your Role: Poke Ball Z Mafia (BMGf/ZD Crossover Event) Endgame: TBA, Town and Survivor Win! (11/7/19)

[Mikey the Moblin]

Just lynch me whatever

Nobody deserves anything therefore I don't deserve to win

 

[The Sun Fan]

I greatly desire fried plantains
I do not own a twitter account

 

[funnier6]

@Lone_Garurumon @DarthWolf can majority be enabled

 

[Funnygurl555]

PLANTAINS

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

@Lone_Garurumon @DarthWolf can majority be enabled

I forbid this. F-

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

Wouldn't that make it less likely Moe is scum then? I really don't know why we're pushing Moe over the SK so much

Here's my thinking on this. It's a little long, but keep in mind that I was literally starting from the ground up. Working from straight up facts and going on from there.

Spoiler: the facts

There cannot be three mafia members left, and thus I do not believe my Cult theory holds any sway at this point.

Cleared town are:
Funny girl: (checked by Max, and Doc)
ME: (I know my own alignment)

Indeps are:
Funnier: (Survivor, vouched for by Other ME/Rubik)
Minish: (self outed SK, lost BPV)

Remainder:
TSF, SMS, Zinn, Moe, Rubik.

Since there cannot be three mafiosos remaining, and SMS’s role is vouched for by Zinn and Moe, SMS is cleared.

Cleared town: funny girl, ME, SMS.
Indeps: funnier, Minish

SMS said that Zinn claimed Blocker before HoT flipped. SMS being cleared Town lends credit to this statement. Claiming Blocker before a scum blocker flips is generally Townie, especially since a scum blocker flipped.

Cleared town: funny girl, ME, SMS, Zinn.
Indeps: funnier, Minish.

TSF’s role is confirmed by Rubik. There cannot exist a world where Moe isn’t lying about being Indep (unless Moe is actually Town, but I find that unlikely) and two other mafiosos exist.

One of TSF and Rubik must be Town.

Spoiler: the suppositions

1. Speculation: Mafia knew about Minish being SK:
HoT made this post about Minish as his last post before dying.

I have personal reasons to doubt Minish at this point. I know she's looking pretty townie right now, but I'm like 65% sure I know her role. I'm going to keep quiet about it for now and see how tonight goes. @Morbid Minish, can I ask you who you targeted last night and if you know your role, not what it is.

HoT's previous take on Minish was that she was completely Town.

Minish - I've liked her posts so far and believe her reasons for less activity yesterday. If she posted a bit more today I think I would have no problem putting her up higher on my town list.

What could have made him change this so radically, when even he admits that "she's looking pretty townie right now?"
How could Mafia have known this without their own Role Cop, or means of determining that Minish was dangerous?
Possibilities: both Rubik and Moe have claimed roles that give information about a player's role/faction.

2. Fact: Caps was indignant about the possibility of Mafia having a Role Cop, when a Town Role Cop had already flipped.

Do you really think Lone would do that? Put two of the same role in a game on different factions?

Since Caps was scum, I'm gonna assume that he was trying to deflect away from the possibility of Mafia having a Role Cop or any sort of similar informational role.
Caps was not said informational role, but he still wanted me dead.

3. Speculation: Caps knew that Max is a PR:

Why are you pressuring Max to claim literally 5 minutes before EoD? What if he's a power role, claims, and then gets offed by the mafia in the night?

This was said before Max claimed (as is obvious by the post content).

4. Observation: Mafia seems to have a multishot, or full, Role Cop, given that Mafia seems to have discovered multiple players' roles.

5. Extrapolation: TSF is cleared. He and Rubik cannot be scum together (see previous math), so there is no reason for both to be lying about TSF being a Watcher. Watcher is also unlikely to have spotted Minish doing any killing, and been able to extrapolate SK from there. HoT was fine with Minish on July 1st, but not fine with her by July 3rd. That's the window between the end of D2, where multiple kills were revealed, and the first 12ish hours of D3, where there was only one kill, and FT says it was Mafia's. N2 was between those phases, and Watching Minish's intended target wouldn't have instantly outed her as SK, since there was only the Mafia death flip starting D3.

6. Speculation: Mafia has a Strongman.
Funnygurl submitted her Doc protection:

that's what i meant haha. and my heal did go through so take that info as you wish

Max still died.
Funnygurl's slot is checked as Town by the dead Cop:

DekuNut is Town

the Godfather is dead.
and nobody visited Funnygurl:

no one visited funnygurl last night

Bus Driver, Redirector, Roleblocker would have all been seen visiting Funnygurl, ergo Strongman.

7. Speculation: Full time RoleCop and 1x Strongman are probably not on the same player.

8. Extrapolation: Mafia must have two remaining team members.

9. Extrapolation: Given my math above regarding the game numbers, if there are two mafia members remaining, Moe must be one of them.

10. Conclusion: lynch Moe. Since TSF is cleared, his final buddy should be Rubik. If I am wrong, it is still no loss to Town.

I fully acknowledge that I may be working from a faulty premise or two, but I don't think I am, and the logic seems sound.

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

Another theory is that Caps had no ****ing clue that Max was a PR, and it was just an unfortunate stumble.

If this is the case, I still believe Mafia RoleCop'd Minish, and, honestly, Occam's razor suggests that Rubik isn't lying about his role. He's gotten TSF and funnier correct right now. However, TSF outed himself beforehand (Rubik merely came in to confirm him), and funnier was pretty much outed as regular Survivor, anyway.

Also, it is just speculation that Role Cop and 1x Strongman wouldn't be on the same player. Cell is versatile and is made up of the DNA from the Z-Warriors and Frieza...

I would put possibilities of a roleblock and strongman on Cell. If the Role Cop was a 1x thing, it probably was used on Minish, coincidentally, and the other two role outings were smoke and mirrors.

In this instance, Rubik is the likely only remaining scum.

 

[funnier6]

So what exactly is bothering you ME? Everyone has come to those conclusions,

 

[The Sun Fan]

I think Hero might've just figured it out based on him roleblocking minish the night prior, Engineer

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

The entire premise of my math could be wrong. I’m assuming that -LO is only announced when Mafia achieves parity with “opposing forces,” namely Town + SK, but how would actual neutral Indeps factor in, when they could sway the game one way or another?
I mean, even in a D6 1:2:1:1:1, Town could still win, depending on which Townie is still alive.

If it’s the Doctor, then Doc, SK, and Survivor lynch a mafioso on D6.
Doc self-protects, Mafia and SK take each other out, and Town wins.

So what good is announcing -LO?

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

I think Hero might've just figured it out based on him roleblocking minish the night prior, Engineer

This is a Bulba game. Roleblockers don’t block factional kills.

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

In any case, it’s midnight, and I have to go back to work tomorrow. I expect a busy day, since I’ve been out for over a week. I wanted to get all of my thoughts out of my head tonight before going to bed.
I think it is as easy as it seems to be, but I’m always paranoid that something will go wrong.

 

[The Sun Fan]

This is a Bulba game. Roleblockers don’t block factional kills.

S A L T W A T E R
A
L
T
W
A
T
E
R

 

[The Sun Fan]

I just want to emphasize that I knew nothing about Moe's win condition before I said "egg"
I have never watched dragon ball z (I have watched the abridged series though)
I kinda watch pokemon sometimes but I don't remember a "stone egg" ever being there
eggs for sure tho

I just like
don't believe that I, without knowing anything, jebaited moe into targeting me last night

I just highly doubt that that ever happened

 

[LittleGumball]

gg pals sorry i didn't try very hard. loved being vanilla tho that **** was hilarious hahaha

Can I just say that LG being vanilla is the most hilarious thing to happen in the history of the universe.

ur tellin me, i laughed and went "haha what if i'm vanilla"

I’m running the math now, actually, but I’ll probably be interrupted by my Doc appointment.

but..... our slot is dead
*the crowd boos me off the stage*

I do not own a twitter account

if you make one you can follow me! my tweets are way more funny when i'm having existential crises

good luck everyone, sure hope someone wins