Game Thread ExLight's Custom Role Mafia - ENDGAME [TOWN WINS]

[Seanzie]

So your argument is it's scummy that I have a way to obtain money. Seems like a legit argument.

Also I never said I wouldn't use it on a player I just rejected your obviously bad bargain. So way to massively misrepresent the situation. Definitely making me think you're town.

It is not a good look that scum can share money and you had more money than we all started with, yeah. That's simple probability; the people with access to more than 1000 were more likely scum.

You said you were going to use it on Ex. How is that not equivalent to you saying you weren't going to use it on a player?

I don't think I'm the one with the massive misrepresentations right now.

 

[Ragnarokio]

given that we know scum has a way to make money and don't know the same of any other (living) town player if we know someone has a way to make money thats scum indictive.

 

[Mint Elv]

I think there is way too much meta clearing. While meta can be used to help build a case, using it as the sole reason to read someone can only hurt town. If Jinjo had been left alone because of her meta of OMGUS, then she might have lived and we wouldn’t have a dead mafia.

KoD is playing a championship game. Which means he’s busy. That alone could be the reason for his sheepy behavior. He may not consider this game worth his time to fool around as mafia.

 

[SoulAdvent]

given that we know scum has a way to make money and don't know the same of any other (living) town player if we know someone has a way to make money thats scum indictive.

Where does it say that Mafia has a way to make money?

 

[Ragnarokio]

Under normal circumstances no.
I'll allow that in case the bidding Players share a private chat, regardless of their alignment.

here

 

[15377]

Where does it say that Mafia has a way to make money?

Absolutely nowhere. 3p is just stirring the pot.

So while lynching Ex is a distraction from lynching wolves I'll do what I can to negate that distraction.

This is the stance I put out night 1 @Seanzie. Given it's the very thing that enticed your direct bargain I think it's pretty clear my willingness to use it on Ex or not hinged on the continued thread state. Further after you made your bargain I made it clear that I rejected it specifically because of your used car salesman loophole framing. At no point did I present Ex as an absolute target. So yeah, you are the one misrepresenting things right now.

Further your logic on money making is dumb. You were told outright in the second post that players could earn more money so your expectation that town couldn't have made more money by then just flies in the face of the games framework.

 

[15377]

here

That's not making money, that's sharing money. The second post and the money win con make it clear there are roles in the game that can actually increase the money they have not just shift it around.

 

[Seanzie]

Absolutely nowhere. 3p is just stirring the pot.



This is the stance I put out night 1 @Seanzie. Given it's the very thing that enticed your direct bargain I think it's pretty clear my willingness to use it on Ex or not hinged on the continued thread state. Further after you made your bargain I made it clear that I rejected it specifically because of your used car salesman loophole framing. At no point did I present Ex as an absolute target. So yeah, you are the one misrepresenting things right now.

Further your logic on money making is dumb. You were told outright in the second post that players could earn more money so your expectation that town couldn't have made more money by then just flies in the face of the games framework.

Dude, I'm not going to rehash this, but targeting Ex with a cop shot was just bad, regardless of the gamestate.

And for the second thing, go and read what I ACTUALLY said if you want to talk to me. At no point did I say town couldn't make money or anything like that. Stop, just stop. My logic is sound, if you don't get that, idk what to tell you.

 

[SoulAdvent]

I am still out but I don’t think 15377 is suspect for being able to gain money. Streamer makes sense - you get money for Streaming like how I get money during the night phase and not when it ends. I wouldn’t be surprised if the role was inspired by Twitch users like Pokimane, who gains money in thanks to her appearance and confuses people with her bathwater - explaining why Morbid Minish 2 was silenced (this is not joke speculation btw). The worst thing I can say about 15377 being suspect is that silencing are usually Mafia roles, but other than that, I don’t have complaints or reason to suspect 15377 at all. I thought he was bullshitting about actually using the check on ExLight, which was why I tried to tell Seanzie that he was wrong for criticizing 15377 without making it obvious that I thought this could be some distraction. The way it has been played is completely Townie. Is 15377 experienced enough in the game to be able to pull it off? I don’t know, and if he is, kindly inform me so I can adequately increase my caution. Now, if we go with the theory that Mafia may actually have a role that gets them money, it wouldn’t surprise me if Paranoid King’s Puppeteer can actually make him gain money like a street entertainer.

Additionally, before I get to PK’s post after I drive back home, his vote on Ragnarokio is awful. Ragnarokio is likely Independent and 15377 isn’t lying about getting an Independent result based on the fact that EchoLight saw from Jinjo’s Role PM that she first wanted to poke Ragnarokio. I doubt all three of Ragnarokio, 15377 and EchoLight are Mafia faking this information, which logically means that Ragnarokio is an Independent unless a Townie is actually lying.

 

[15377]

Dude, I'm not going to rehash this, but targeting Ex with a cop shot was just bad, regardless of the gamestate.

And for the second thing, go and read what I ACTUALLY said if you want to talk to me. At no point did I say town couldn't make money or anything like that. Stop, just stop. My logic is sound, if you don't get that, idk what to tell you.

We are talking about my willingness to target a player though. Way to avoid the subject.

I did read what you said. And then I pointed out that there are more factors involved than you seem to be taking into account. The number of players that can gain money is one. How they gain money is another. Alignment distribution of those roles is another. All of these things would effect the probability rate and you seemed to have considered none of them, which circles back around to my original point of voting you in that you don't seem to be trying to actively solve, you're just grabbing at low hanging fruit.

 

[Ragnarokio]

That's not making money, that's sharing money. The second post and the money win con make it clear there are roles in the game that can actually increase the money they have not just shift it around.

the difference doesn't matter in this case

 

[Seanzie]

We are talking about my willingness to target a player though. Way to avoid the subject.

I'm not avoiding any subject. You said you were going to target Ex. Plain and simple. You don't have to say "I absolutely will NOT target a player" for your words to logically imply that you are not going to target a player. If you were LYING about planning to target Ex, then that is a whole other story, but if you were planning to target Ex, then you LITERALLY were PLANNING TO NOT TARGET A PLAYER, and you seemed pretty damn adamant against it even as I pointed out that it was a huge waste of a cop shot to target Ex.

I did read what you said. And then I pointed out that there are more factors involved than you seem to be taking into account. The number of players that can gain money is one. How they gain money is another. Alignment distribution of those roles is another. All of these things would effect the probability rate and you seemed to have considered none of them, which circles back around to my original point of voting you in that you don't seem to be trying to actively solve, you're just grabbing at low hanging fruit.

There are more factors involved, but an extremely simple probability calculation implies that people with more than 1000 to spend are AT LEAST as likely to be wolves as the general population, and considering that my role doesn't have a way to gain money, I thought it was a pretty safe assumption that at least one other town role out there doesn't have a way to gain money, and that there are at least two mafia. Under that extremely weak assumption, it is then MORE likely for someone with over 1000 to spend to be a wolf.

Calculation: Let's say there are M mafia, T1 town who can make money, and T2 town who cannot (let's ignore 3p's for now, or lump them into town if you like). Then the probability of any person in the general population to be mafia is M/(M+T1+T2). Now, since we are assuming there are at least two mafia, that means that the people who have access to over 1000 include all of mafia and T1. Then the probability of a person with over 1000 money being mafia is M/(M+T1)>M/(M+T1+T2). Now, does this make you mafia automatically? No, but does it make me wary of anyone who has more money than they started with? Yes, definitely, and with good reason, they are LITERALLY >rand!wolf. by definition.

 

[Seanzie]

For the record, I don't even majorly suspect numbers right now, but them saying my logic was dumb when the math is perfectly solid irked me.

 

[Ragnarokio]

For the record, I don't even majorly suspect numbers right now, but them saying my logic was dumb when the math is perfectly solid irked me.

story of my life

 

[Ragnarokio]

Vote: KoD/color]

Nobody sticks out to me yet still, whoever the scum team is is probably playing a pretty good game. I feel like soul is genuinely trying to solve which strikes me as towny. Someone told me echo was comedically bad at lying and I don't see her play coming from a scum PoV unless she's become competent at acting. I haven't been a huge fan of seanzie's play this game but the fact that he was a counterwagon to jinjo earns him a lot of points in my book.

KoD i'm on the fence about. He's hardly in the game and i feel like most or all of our other living players are pretty active and contributing. Combined with the fact that I feel the mafia are probably low-impact this game KoD seems like a natural choice. The only real reason i'm hesitant is because his play would have been pretty heavily in opposition to his meta, but at this point I'd suspect that it could be a result of his lack of engagement with the game.

I'm pretty null on mint, but considering i'm townreading most of the game that makes her look bad by process of elimination.

I'm no good at reading minish but i feel like she probably would have done more to try and save jinjo and that she would have done more to prepare a claim for jinjo early in the game, which makes me want to townlean on her.

I'm feeling null on PK atm, which again by process of elimination makes him look bad.

My top choice of lynch today is probably KoD, but I could be convinced to switch to PK or mint.

There's a lot of mechanical info in the game and its hard to keep track of it so hopefully nothing i said was too stupid in light of that