Game Thread ExLight's Custom Role Mafia - ENDGAME [TOWN WINS]

[MuffleDark]

...I actually might be inclined to vote Seanzie. His argument with Minish currently is not looking great to me and, while I agree with him that using the cop on the host is very bad, people have made good points about hypocrisy in relation to it, considering he was willing to waste a day on the host. His fake bid is also super weird, especially now knowing he's in a position to prevent the cop from being used on the host...
Vote: Seanzie

I was about to say the same thing.

Vote: Seanzie

 

[Ragnarokio]

seanzie's been cagey about a lot of things and i got the impression he was hiding stuff so i guess now is the time to reveal that

 

[Ragnarokio]

I find this to be low effort voting from Rag. Its essentially KoD is off his meta but it's been addressed multiple times already that KoD just started a champs game and further has been like this for a few games now, flipping town in said games. Combined with the things I mentioned earlier and the gremlin snafu and I think I'm comfortable leaving my vote here.

i missed people saying that. you're right that its low effort though. I wanted to put my vote somewhere before i slept but I'm not really scumreading anyone at this point. I've been having a hard time finding a decent read this game.

 

[SoulAdvent]

I had a look at PK's town read on kod since I'm not town reading him and I saw it saying he posted good reads and the problem with it is kod gave 6 town reads with no explanation. That could be tmi since town doesn't know each other and would show paranoia. PK also said his insistence that Seanzie is bad felt honest to him but kod never explained the read on Seanzie. Dawning I think it was asked kod what was the reasoning to his vote on Seanzie but he did not reply to Dawning and I did not like that he dodged the question.

This is Jinjo's best post in the game and it makes PK look bad, but the paranoid part of my brain makes it think that the reason it's Jinjo's best post in the game where it feels like she is actually trying to solve the game, is because PK is her wolf friend and she is trying to make herself or PK look better in case one of them dies first. A wolf in trouble can attack their other wolf friend to confuse people - and they are more okay doing it to their friends than their enemies who they have to look good with because their friends can decide to not vote them being on the same side, and the villagers can if they are suspicious of the wolf from bothering them. Hope this theory makes sense!

 

[SoulAdvent]

So what you're saying is you flavor copped Seanzie, voted him because you thought his role was sus and then decided to back off when his claim matched up with what you peeped. Then decided that with the short amount of time you'd just sheep your top town read because everybody seems pretty confident in town!soul and most are sus on Jinjo anyway. Cool, cool. Gotcha gotcha.

(This is all just a guess for those watching at home).

I'm still mulling over Seanzie's claim. On the surface level I'm inclined to agree with PK that putting up a fight on targets you don't agree with doesn't make sense, but I can fathom caveats that would make a player want to holster it, limited use for example. The rolestop bit doesn't make sense to me as a rolestop would prevent other players from targeting me so I don't see how that would catch me in a lie? Maybe it's just been too long of a day and I'm too tired. I would say currently it does nothing to alleviate my willingness to vote there though.

This is a VERY STRONG analysis post from 15377. I think from this post I am okay just putting 15377 as Town and not think too deep unless something really, REALLY bothers me!!

With 15377 figuring KoD's action out, this means that Seanzie could have figured that KoD checked him, and Seanzie thought it would be better to reveal his role to look good thinking the cat's out of the bag!! So the villager credit I gave to Seanzie for revealing his role loses a lot of value...

I would also like to say that how KoD voted Seanzie and handled the situation with the knowledge that Seanzie's role is a Blocker-like role is VERY Townie!! If I was a Wolf, and I wanted the villagers to kill another villager, I would not bother being secretive about my results and instead try to make Seanzie look as bad as possible. Now, if I was a villager... then I am more likely to do what KoD did voting Seanzie to see how he would react!! Whether Seanzie is Town or Mafia here... KoD is Town and is ONLY Mafia if he wanted to fake his result and it's an agreed betrayal, which I do not think is the case with how KoD voted him, and put the light on Seanzie with his role revealed.

 

[MuffleDark]

Seanzie has been one of the most active posters, but I haven't had a good feeling about from ever since he went on and on about lynching Ex day 1, and then completely flipped sides when someone else wanted to investigate Ex. He's been secretive and has gone through multiple mental gymnastics to justify his secrecy. Just take a look at his convo with Minish. It's not looking good.

@Seanzie do you have a defense?

 

[SoulAdvent]

For completeness-sake, I didn't know everyone town reading Soul or susing Jinjo. Truth be told, Soul's portrayal makes me want to not trust what they're putting out. Jinjo, on the other hand from when I last looked at the thread, hadn't done much from what I'd seen. So I figured voting Jinjo would put pressure there while seeing how Soul would react to an unsubstantiated sheep.

That's kind of pointless though if you're all vibing together.

Jinjo's kneejerk reaction was noteworthy though. Though, if everyone truly is leaning scum on him, that may serve to reverse any scum leaning feelings I may have gotten from his reaction.

Unvote

I am not sure what you mean about my portrayal, but I am an honest no-nonsense person... If I have something in my mind, I will say it.

PK didn't lean scum on Jinjo, so it's not exactly everyone... (and she had 3 votes out of 10?)

 

[Jinjo]

I haven't been satisfied with Mint's approach towards me. Votes me because of omgus which is nai and it felt like they were looking for a reason to vote for someone. They also said I wasted posts and what I find interesting is alot of other players have also wasted posts by talking about mechanics which has nothing to do with scum hunting. They also did not respond back to me but instead talked to Dawning.


Vote: Mint Elv

 

[SoulAdvent]

I'm undecided on soul. She isn't brand new to mafia, just forum mafia as a format, is my understanding. I would expect someone in her position to act more insecure if she were isolated in an unfamiliar environment but people can have very different personalities so i don't think its a particularly strong tell. I appreciate her trying to instigate activity, regardless of her alignment.

I was actually very insecure in the beginning ^^; but once the game started feeling fun to me I just forgot about it and I got used to you guys so I got the confidence to do better!!

the wagon day one swung off of PK at the last minute and onto storm which makes PK look marginally worse.

I don't think PK is off the hook for his last few seconds vote. Even if one person changed their vote and voted him(which happened exactly with DawningWinds, LOL xD), it would not have meant they would have died, but it would be random. It is not bad to save yourself, but it is bad to do it in such a sneaky way.

 

[Jinjo]

This is Jinjo's best post in the game and it makes PK look bad, but the paranoid part of my brain makes it think that the reason it's Jinjo's best post in the game where it feels like she is actually trying to solve the game, is because PK is her wolf friend and she is trying to make herself or PK look better in case one of them dies first. A wolf in trouble can attack their other wolf friend to confuse people - and they are more okay doing it to their friends than their enemies who they have to look good with because their friends can decide to not vote them being on the same side, and the villagers can if they are suspicious of the wolf from bothering them. Hope this theory makes sense!

That's not how scum hunting works. You are doing early pre flipping association and that is useless when he haven't even had a scum flip.

 

[Paranoid King]

On night 1 it looked like was when you were suspicious on 15377 and I'm assuming sometime in day 2 you got good vibes from them and can you quote me the posts where you got good vibes? When I had a look at their posts on day 2 it was neutral for me.

Posts like these.

Its simply to control the flow. Storm is a ticking time bomb. As others have said, it benefits Mafia more to have him flip late in the game when town is less powerful. Further town can do nothing to stop the flow. Even targeting storm at night to either protect or watch just brings on the impending flip. Its not a "this is a good thing for town", it's a "this is the best of a bad situation". But even if that's the route we choose today we don't have to consider it a wasted phase, we can take as much time discussing everything and anything else before we take action.

Probably you or PK. I'm weary of your preoccupation with lynching Ex. PK because of the reasons I've previously stated about their slot.

I'd say so. Ending on Ex because you got cold feet on Soul tells me you hadn't given enough thought to any other player to have a secondary choice in terms of voting players. Also you poorly bargained (imo) because you wanted to retain the ability to go back to voting Ex in the future, which tells me it's still on your mind. But that's just my assessment of the matter.

As for my targets, I prefer to hit players I can see myself tunneling on to avoid such a mental block and generally avoid players I think I'll be able to cold read. Who would you target?

You are forgetting Min also targeted KoD but didn't die so we know KoD wasn't on vet alert murdering anybody that targets him.

@Morbid Minish I don't particularly have any strong scum leans. PK still hasn't done anything I'd town read him for so I'm okay voting there again. Echo kinda pinged me on the storm thing but they said it was only their 5th game, ja? So rookie being rookie is enough to save their neck today I think. Jinjo kinda falls into the same realm as PK while being less active and less at the forefront of my mind. I think one of the bulbas said they are usually one of the less active posters regardless of alignment though. Seanzie I think is on the table today. The Ex focus day 1 is a good cover for scum to not put thoughts down on other players and what little hunting he did do, while consistent with his play last game, is something easily fakeable as he admitted himself.

These posts explain personal motivations and suspicions. The first one is a stance I think agrees with town motives. The second and third ones lay out who they are suspicious of and why.

Why is this a wolf read?

Mostly just because I haven't heard anything of substance from Rag since D1. They don't have any strong reads in either direction, other than KoD, and others have already pointed out why KoD's activities are different this game.

What are Jinjo's "good questions"?

I guess I should say "genuine questions." Things like this, that clear up their own personal questions. I have absolutely no read on Jinjo, good or bad.

What do you mean mafia abstained last night? There was a kill last night and that could have been done by mafia.

They also said it seemed like PK contradicted himself which made it look like they had two players they had in mind for a vote on day 1. Why hold back? Was there no conviction?

 

[Ragnarokio]

@SoulAdvent Can you post an explanation for why you're currently voting jinjo? Your votes been there for a while and I want to see where you're currently at with it.

 

[ExLight]

Votecount 2.9.

Seanzie (3) - Morbid Minish, DawningWinds, EchoLight
Jinjo (2) - SoulAdvent, Mint Elv
KingOfDominaria (2) - Seanzie, Ragnarokio
Echolight (1) - Paranoid King
Ragnarokio (1) - 15377
Mint Elv (1) - Jinjo
Not voting (1) - KingOfDominaria

Phase ends on April 28rd, at 9:00:00 PM (GMT-3).
DEADLINE COUNTDOWN

30 MINUTES REMAINING IN THE DAY

 

[SoulAdvent]

Today - 11 (7T 3M 1S)
Tomorrow - 9 (5T 3M 1S)
The Day After - 7 (3T 3M 1S) (Lylo with 3P?)

Today - 11 (7T 3M 1S)
Day 3- 10 (6T 3M 1S)
Day 4 - 9 (5T 3M 1S)
Day 5 - 8 (4T 3M 1S)
Day 6 - 7 (3T 3M 1S) (Lylo with 3P?)

we can get two extra night actions if we no lynch four times and one extra night action if we no lynch twice. This is heavily influenced by mechanics and is likely to change over the course of the game though. 13 players is also an awkward game size. nine town three mafia one self seems the most likely to me but ten town three mafia is also feasible. Anything else is probably a lot less likely but not impossible.

No...

I've tried this before, and well, it doesn't usually end well and near the end of the game who to vote becomes more random :/

If we did that, may as well solve the game randomly with numbers...

So with that in mind, anybody wanna counter claim gremlin?

Sorry... what is a gremlin? I google roles I do not know but this one is not giving me anything...

because even guessing what the gremlin does could give it entrance into our world (this and everything i have said about the gremlin is a joke please do not read into it)

Vote: KoD

low presence KoD is very strange and makes me nervous.

I'll be gone for a while and i should be back about an hour before the deadline if i did the time zone math right

What do you think of my post about KoD being very villager with how he handled his flavor cop check on Seanzie?

 

[Seanzie]

Seanzie has been one of the most active posters, but I haven't had a good feeling about from ever since he went on and on about lynching Ex day 1, and then completely flipped sides when someone else wanted to investigate Ex. He's been secretive and has gone through multiple mental gymnastics to justify his secrecy. Just take a look at his convo with Minish. It's not looking good.

@Seanzie do you have a defense?

I'm not super great at all reads, but I'm great at gamestate reads and know I'm going down here regardless of what I say.

For after I die: My role is super anti-town to use in all but extreme circumstances, and I vowed to not use it unless town was pretty much losing (as in all other cases it has as much if not more chance to have anti-town effect), and I thought using it to stop a bad play with the cop shot would be good, then then Storm's death made me change, and I did just want to tell what I was going to cause, but I didn't want to say how anti-town my role was and wanted to wifom scum into killing me (nothing I said is an outright lie, but I sure stretched the truth to make my role sound dangerous). Everyone would know if I used my role last night, and what I hinted, scum has every reason to want to know if I targeted someone since wht I hinted could seriously affect how they play moving forward, so Minish's questions very well could be scum-motivated, even though they could also just be town who doesn't realize what I was doing.

Also, hypocracy is a towntell, but yeah, y'all do you.