Game Thread DW's Very Creatively Titled Mafia

[Ragnarokio]

I have confidence that he is town, he jumped to Killjoy very early when he could easily have gone elsewhere and moved across later to bus (Darth was a prime opportunity), his early game was very solvey and the only reason he’s had to defend himself is because of the size of the wagon on him. Compare his defence to say Darth’s when Darth had no votes, his defence isn’t even that extreme.

ime ex putting a little heat on his allies when he thinks they're misplaying is a normal maneuver for him. Its feasible he felt KJ was being too lurky and so responded to that by putting some pressure on him, and when KJ responded by clamming up more he had no real choice but to double down on it, especially as the game (in this scenario) was shaping up to be a scum v scum wagon.

 

[ExLight]

ime ex putting a little heat on his allies when he thinks they're misplaying is a normal maneuver for him. Its feasible he felt KJ was being too lurky and so responded to that by putting some pressure on him, and when KJ responded by clamming up more he had no real choice but to double down on it, especially as the game (in this scenario) was shaping up to be a scum v scum wagon.

Ye make me sound so cold blooded wtf

 

[lain]

hm. i guess it’s possible you were intending to take the vote off killjoy at some point @ExLight but kept it on after you and the other mafia decided to bus them.

if none of the mafia voted killjoy, my guess would be that it was rag and dc but i was townreading both of them. and at some point killjoy was probably going to be voted out regardless i think, so they might as well have bussed them. i felt like at some point a few people voted killjoy all of a sudden for unclear reasons so i should probably reread that part of the thread.

 

[JamieIsBored]

ime ex putting a little heat on his allies when he thinks they're misplaying is a normal maneuver for him. Its feasible he felt KJ was being too lurky and so responded to that by putting some pressure on him, and when KJ responded by clamming up more he had no real choice but to double down on it, especially as the game (in this scenario) was shaping up to be a scum v scum wagon.

Yeah fair enough, although that’s more a Mint play than it is an Ex. Ex has been shading Killjoy since D1 and he’s at least honourable enough to not bus a player he knows will be lurky that early from my experience.

 

[Ragnarokio]

the shade is easily interpreted as a form of coaching rather than a form of bussing. In this hypothetical ex's intent in shading killjoy would be to help him play an active mafia game, something he has struggled with. This attitude meshes with ex saying he was proud of KJ for not subbing out.

I don't imaigne ex ultimately would have wanted to lynch KJ but when he started a wagon on him and the only other competing wagon is himself he doesn't really have a lot of choice.

 

[ExLight]

Yeah fair enough, although that’s more a Mint play than it is an Ex. Ex has been shading Killjoy since D1 and he’s at least honourable enough to not bus a player he knows will be lurky that early from my experience.

I mean I don't see much of a reason for bussing an inactive scumbud as mafia since usually the host lets someone submit their actions for them. Although they do bother me significantly.

It would just be weird for me to, if outed, to just take another one of my team down knowing that I have to be lynched or solved somehow before the -Lo. I'd probably just take the bullet instead of nuking 66.67% of my team, lol.

 

[ExLight]

I don't imaigne ex ultimately would have wanted to lynch KJ but when he started a wagon on him and the only other competing wagon is himself he doesn't really have a lot of choice.

I'm the one that added momentum to his wagon though, why wouldn't I just go after someone else or hop out of it as soon it started gaining more votes?

Hell, I think if I were scum I'd even do some stupid play like faking a slip to make me the wagon instead of a scumbud considering I'd be a red checked mafioso, lol.

Like I said Killjoy's role was super strong too, why would I take it down instead of LOUD VISITOR
LMAO

 

[JamieIsBored]

Although they do bother me significantly

Sense of honour shining through.

would just be weird for me to, if outed, to just take another one of my team down knowing that I have to be lynched or solved somehow before the -Lo. I'd probably just take the bullet instead of nuking 66.67% of my team, lol.

Agreed here, why would an outed Ex want pressure on any of his team? Especially one as powerful as that.

 

[Ragnarokio]

i do think ex looks better overall for being the competing wagon with a mafia aligned player, although ex is a very easy lynch so mafia letting KJ die instead of ex does look strange. In theory with this wagon there should either be mafia on the ex wagon, there should be inactive mafia, or it should be a scum/scum wagon. The last option would normally be rare but the red check on ex makes it a lot more plausible.

storm realistically can't be scum, so on the ex wagon that leaves me, lain, and OG. Lain is unlikely because fae were very aggressively pursuing killjoy, and i don't think fae'd do that as scum. OG is more 50/50, they seem like the type who might be willing to bus a teammate if they felt their teammate was playing scummy, and its feasible they did considering KJ's silence immediately after claiming they play silently as scum.

OG is the only one who looks bad here to me. objectively I might too although I'm not going to bother psychoanalyzing myself from a third party perspective.

I don't think anyone was lurking to such an extent that they would have let KJ be lynched, but I'd need to look closer at the activity history to be sure of that.

In the event of a 2-scum wagon i'm not sure anyone comes away looking better or worse.

the three people i'm particularly suspicious of at the moment are then OG, DC (who is replacing out), and exlight. OG's play also makes sense from a town perspective, so i'm less sure of them. DC's not knowing mafia kills at night is still a big red flag for me and they'd be my top choice for non-mech reasons. Ex was still red checked and that still makes them likely to be scum statistically, although they look better overall by virtue of being a counterwagon to scum, its not enough to counteract the red check.

 

[Ragnarokio]

I'm the one that added momentum to his wagon though, why wouldn't I just go after someone else or hop out of it as soon it started gaining more votes?

Hell, I think if I were scum I'd even do some stupid play like faking a slip to make me the wagon instead of a scumbud considering I'd be a red checked mafioso, lol.

its possible you saw abandoning the wagon at the point it started cementing as a non-option because it would just make both of you look worse.

the latter play does sound like something you'd do, and its possible that you did try to do it but nobody picked up on it. Its also possible you just didn't do it despite being scum.

its also feasible you saw sacrificing KJ as being a better play than taking the fall yourself considering they had apparently gone full AWOL, or that you were waiting for them to make a post in thread defending themselves to get off the wagon but they never did.

 

[ExLight]

AWOL

what's AWOL

awooo

 

[Ragnarokio]

I do think with this flip that my theory of all neighbours being purposeful could be true. We’ve had a Cop + Miller duo flip and then a Vigi + Mafia. That’s one hell of a coincidence.

It might be less of a coincidence than it seems. In order to calculate the odds you'd first need the odds of two roles being related, and then you'd look at the odds of two random pairs of roles being related. If the odds of two roles being related was 50%, the odds of two neighbour pairs each having related roles as a matter of chance would be 25%, which is not much of a coincidence.

The odds of two roles being related in any sense and to any degree is probably 100%. The more accurate question is then "to what degree do two roles need to be related for us to conclude that they were probably paired intentionally rather than randomly?" The answer to this is going to be highly subjective and tainted by a variety of biases. You've already said a cop + miller and a cop + mafia duo make sense. cop + any protective role would make sense becuase they're both power roles or because they combo together. cop + any weak role (or vanilla) would make sense because it ends up creating a balanced pair. cop + any other investigative role obviously makes sense. cop + backup or something similar makes sense, because its a natural combo. You can probably justify a reasonable relationship between cop and most other roles, and when the odds of two roles being related become high enough, the odds of two neighbourhoods having "paired" roles starts becoming likely even with a random distribution.

 

[Ragnarokio]

what's AWOL

awooo

AWOL is short for "absent without leave", and refers to someone not being somewhere they're supposed to be without permission. I think its originally a military term. In this case it just means killjoy stopped posting.

 

[ExLight]

It might be less of a coincidence than it seems. In order to calculate the odds you'd first need the odds of two roles being related, and then you'd look at the odds of two random pairs of roles being related. If the odds of two roles being related was 50%, the odds of two neighbour pairs each having related roles as a matter of chance would be 25%, which is not much of a coincidence.

To be fair if the neighborhoods are counterpart roles then they can be randomized in pairs, so 6 duos.

Although I'm not sure what the relation between Killjoy and KoD would be other than one Town and one Mafia?

 

[ExLight]

Although I'm not sure what the relation between Killjoy and KoD would be other than one Town and one Mafia?

Nor Lain's and Darth's?