Mini Ice Age On It's Way

[Emma]

Not looking forward to climate change deniers using this as rebuttal for evidence of man-made effects on the climate.

No. Because the "deniers", as they're constantly degradingly called (skeptic is the polite term), don't believe the Earth had accelerated warming. Except for a tiny handful of nutjobs on fox news, most "deniers (seriously stop using that insulting term) separate the two and think that the problems you're attributing to global warming are serious problems causing different, disastrous environmental concerns like endangering plant and animal life and causing cancer in animals and humans and simply don't believe the warming thing is happening to scale that is being claimed. The whole "you don't think humans are messing up the planet thing" has always been a strawman. In fact skeptics have often cared more about the problems than the AGW proponents have. For instance the awareness of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Most AGW proponents have never heard of it. And that's a shame. It's an outrageously bad environmental disaster and nothing is being done about it.

Actual climate skeptics are going to use this as evidence against the idea of man made climate change because the "climate models" that they were using to "prove it" have never been right, have always missed their predictions. While this model on the other hand, that is predicting this solar activity decrease has an accuracy of 97% by matching previous solar activity changes with that amount of accuracy, considerably better than "almost never right" for the climate models people were using for "proving" man-made climate change.

I'm trusting this finding on the solar activity levels dropping BECAUSE of how accurate this model has shown itself to be. A big reason why I do not trust the idea of man-made climate change is that those models have always been wrong. The sun is a considerably simplier system and to just figure out the magnetic fields you don't have to handle nearly as much data as you do with the Earth's atmosphere. So it's much easier to build a reliable model that can be used for prediction.


Mods, you should move this to MD because anything having to do with Climate change is going to get heated.

 

[(◕‿◕✿)]

Actual climate skeptics are going to use this as evidence against the idea of man made climate change because the "climate models" that they were using to "prove it" have never been right, have always missed their predictions. While this model on the other hand, that is predicting this solar activity decrease has an accuracy of 97% by matching previous solar activity changes with that amount of accuracy, considerably better than "almost never right" for the climate models people were using for "proving" man-made climate change.

I'm trusting this finding on the solar activity levels dropping BECAUSE of how accurate this model has shown itself to be. A big reason why I do not trust the idea of man-made climate change is that those models have always been wrong. The sun is a considerably simplier system and to just figure out the magnetic fields you don't have to handle nearly as much data as you do with the Earth's atmosphere. So it's much easier to build a reliable model that can be used for prediction.

These are some pretty interesting and incredible claims, can you provide some sources on them? I'm interested in how you know that those models have always been wrong.

Mods, you should move this to MD because anything having to do with Climate change is going to get heated.

Please don't tell us how to do our jobs. We'll move it if it gets heated, right now it's fine. Thanks.

 

[Diego]

Or you know... we could keep this thread lighthearted instead of making it a political debate for no reason? we're talking about how fun/not fun would an Ice Age be, not a freaking debate of who is right and who is wrong!

 

[Emma]

These are some pretty interesting and incredible claims, can you provide some sources on them? I'm interested in how you know that those models have always been wrong.

I find these demands for papers to be really funny. Considering it COSTS MONEY to read them. All these other people who've claimed they've read a lot of studies must be loaded since it costs so much just to read one. But yes they exist.
Here's one that refutes the accuracy of climate models and tries to make more accurate ones by including factors that mainstream climate scientists disregard because they're not human-influenced And it does fit better:
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-014-0011-z
There is some explanation of it here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/11...ing-reduces-climate-sensitivity-to-1-3-deg-c/

On the subject at hand, this model that predicts the solar outputs considers all the relevant factors within the sun, and as there is no human influence on the sun, there's no politicization of the model. The model has shown itself to be accurate and therefore reliable enough to be trusted. This means that this mini-ice age is likely and as I said before we have to prepare. The absolute panic when some southern cities in the US just get a very light dusting of snow shows that we're not physically or emotionally ready for such an event. We need to work on it. Mentality will be the biggest problem.

 

[Polychrome]

The problem with climate change is that the climate is always changing.

Most of the global warming "catastrophe" belief is due to a hypothesis that if the global temperature hits a certain point (usually 1-3 degrees), we'll be thrown into a positive feedback loop that will turn the Earth into Venus. (Nevermind that Venus is closer to the sun, has a far denser atmosphere, and has an extremely slow rotation that gives daylit areas far greater warmth from sunlight.) The second link that Matt provided specifically addresses negative feedbacks, which are often ignored or forgotten. (The entire site provides some very good reads.)

Things that are typically ignored in models can include:

1. Sun
2. Volcanic activity (especially under Antarctica)
3. Whether clouds warm or cool
4. The fact that the world historically has been both far hotter and far colder with more and less CO2 in the atmosphere.
5. The Little Ice Age, often written out of history like an Ilia-hater writing fanfic.

I think we as humans tend to give ourselves too much credit. If nature bats last, why can't we put it on the score card?

There are better things we could be doing for humanity with all the funding that goes into these climate models. Things like helping poor people in Africa set up better infrastructure for their villages and getting them better farming and medical equipment.

 

[Emma]

I just had a thought, while I was thinking about the Pluto flyby. Since this change is going to be from the sun's solar activity changing in its natural cycle, what is that going to mean for the other planets? And what are we going to see? Is that going to kill off Jupiter's Great Red Spot? Is it going to change how many dust storms Mars gets? Is it going to significantly impact the outer planets at all? This is all very interesting and it could be an opportunity to learn more about the other planets if we can get probes around them in time.

 

[Beauts]

This was not ever intended as an opportunity for people to give their opinions on whether there is some giant global conspiracy about climate change (there isn't by the way). This was an opportunity for those of us who are interested in actual science and evidence, not nonsense conspiracy theories. This is not a debate. This is a discussion. If I had created the thread to get up someones nose because they don't believe in climate change, I would have put it in the mature discussion section in the first place and labeled it something more obvious, for example: "IS CLIMATE CHANGE REALLY HAPPENING?????"

Allow me to reiterate:

This is nothing to do with whether or not climate change is happening. This is about the possibility of a mini ice age- a phenomena which has actually happened in the past, I hope you don't plan to suggest that history records including everyone ever's personal accounts back in the 1700s have been tampered with just to piss you off?. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't, but if you're not interested in talking about the matter at hand and are instead interested in force feeding people your pseudo-scientific bull****, I suggest you go and make your own thread. Sick of this nonsense.

Also, having had this discussion before, yes I used the word 'conspiracy'. I know, buzzword, nonsense, blah blah. Listen, the word conspiracy is also not a conspiracy. Now can we please actually go back to talking about reality instead of fictional imaginary things that only exist in the mind of the few?

 

[Diego]

Thank you.....!

So really, how would you prepare for an Ice Age? Because I don't think my stove will be enough
I'm not a fan of preppers, I think they are a little over the top (i don't plan to robb a bank, so I don't need so many guns) but if the thing comes... I know some people will react like it's the end of the world when our streets here in SouthAmerica start to be covered in snow for the first time since... Cretaceous, I think?

 

[Emma]

This was not ever intended as an opportunity for people to give their opinions on whether there is some giant global conspiracy about climate change (there isn't by the way). This was an opportunity for those of us who are interested in actual science and evidence, not nonsense conspiracy theories. This is not a debate. This is a discussion. If I had created the thread to get up someones nose because they don't believe in climate change, I would have put it in the mature discussion section in the first place and labeled it something more obvious, for example: "IS CLIMATE CHANGE REALLY HAPPENING?????"

Allow me to reiterate:

This is nothing to do with whether or not climate change is happening. This is about the possibility of a mini ice age- a phenomena which has actually happened in the past, I hope you don't plan to suggest that history records including everyone ever's personal accounts back in the 1700s have been tampered with just to piss you off?. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't, but if you're not interested in talking about the matter at hand and are instead interested in force feeding people your pseudo-scientific bull****, I suggest you go and make your own thread. Sick of this nonsense.

Also, having had this discussion before, yes I used the word 'conspiracy'. I know, buzzword, nonsense, blah blah. Listen, the word conspiracy is also not a conspiracy. Now can we please actually go back to talking about reality instead of fictional imaginary things that only exist in the mind of the few?

Pro-tip, if you want to have people not discuss an issue, try to not insult them and use a, ironic here, buzzword meant to enrage people. Note I actually tried to steer the conversation back on topic, making your post an unnecessary attempt to jab at how much you hate people who disagree with you. How about instead of insults flying back and forth we agree to disagree on it and keep the discussion on that topic IN THE THREAD about it that was just put up the other day? Alright. You'll notice that I never brought it up here until someone used the "stupid deniers" insult again.

BACK ON TOPIC, LET'S STAY HERE PLEASE WITH NO MORE INSULTS FOR DARING TO DISAGREE WITH YOU.


I still want to talk about how this is going to affect the other planets. C'mon. Jupiter's Great Red Spot. It's fueled by a lot of heat from Jupiter's interior. But it's already shrinking. When this decrease in solar activity happens, will the spot completely dissipate? I think it might, but I'm not sure because of the heat it gets from its own interior. It's really interesting to think about.

 

[Beauts]

Thank you.....!

So really, how would you prepare for an Ice Age? Because I don't think my stove will be enough
I'm not a fan of preppers, I think they are a little over the top (i don't plan to robb a bank, so I don't need so many guns) but if the thing comes... I know some people will react like it's the end of the world when our streets here in SouthAmerica start to be covered in snow for the first time since... Cretaceous, I think?

It probably wouldn't get that cold there, just colder than it is, this isn't like a full on ice age where the polar caps will sweep over us again or something, because to be fair they're still melting. I dunno I think personally I'll just wear 12,000 layers at all times and hope for the best. It'll be fun if/when the Thames here in London freezes over. People used to go skating and have markets and parties on the frozen river.

 

[Beauts]

BACK ON TOPIC, LET'S STAY HERE PLEASE WITH NO MORE INSULTS FOR DARING TO DISAGREE WITH YOU.
.

I'm sorry if I got misconstrued but then you probably read what I said upside down and backwards and found a different meaning in it. I insulted you because you not for the first time ruined an innocent thread with your nonsense. That is the reason I insulted you, because I dislike it and I think you're living in an alternate dimension from everyone else on earth. It would have been impossible for me to get annoyed with you disagreeing with me before I even stated my opinion on climate change. Because time travel is impossible, you see. I disagreed with what you said. Yes I was insulting but tbh I don't really see a reason to be nice to you. I have to unignore you to even see what you say. I just noticed that a quite happy thread had taken a turn for the worse.

 

[(◕‿◕✿)]

Both of you drop this now. This thread has gotten pretty off topic, if you want to discuss climate change, post in the appropriate thread about it.

 

[Salem]

Mods, you should move this to MD because anything having to do with Climate change is going to get heated.

Why don't you start a new thread about this in the MD?

 

[Emma]

Both of you drop this now. This thread has gotten pretty off topic, if you want to discuss climate change, post in the appropriate thread about it.

That's what I've been trying to do. I'd ask you to please not misconstrue this. I enlarged and bolded my on-topic reply in the last one. Please do not misrepresent that.

Why don't you start a new thread about this in the MD?

Already is, Kitsu provided the link for it.

I thought a bit more about the storms. Saturn and Neptune have their own persistent storms too. But they're further out so those storms are more dependent on their internal heat. I'm thinking that this is going to have a lesser impact on those storms than it will on Jupiter's. But it's still hard to say. It would depend on exactly how much energy the Red Spot gets from the sun. Maybe they'll just shrink but not go away. Or maybe it'll make a new one. The estimates for the Red Spot's age are more or less during the last time solar activity got this low hundreds of years ago. See? This is what I'm talking about why it's so important that we get new probes around these planets. Who knows what's going to happen? We need to be there to watch it go down.

 

[Salem]

Already is, Kitsu provided the link for it..

I was sure his reply wasn't there when I made my reply.