We need to focuss on one neighbourhood at the time. If we hit scum, the 3 others will be confirmed town. Then it is already game over for the mafia. They will have to waste 3 nights to clean up this mess, which gives us 3 days to clear yet another neighbourhood. And even if we hit town, the 3 other members of the neighbourhood will have an increased chance of being scum. So making it statistically for us a better option anyway to focuss on them rather than from someone in another neighbourhood. And everytime we clear a neighbourhood we will get more leads on the culprits in the following neighbourhood. I suggest we stick to this plan
So if scum focus on one neighborhood as well do we switch to a broader approach? What I'm trying to get across is that the scum counter play to that is to eradicate a neighborhood at the cost of one team member. Then they split focus between 2. Numbers again
Day 1 lynch town in H1
Night 1 town killed in H2
Day 2 skipped because eclipse
Night 2 town killed in H3
Day 3 we still only have a 33% chance to get scum, and if we don't we go with only 4 town in n3
Night 3 town is killed
Day 4 3 scum, 3 town, survivor. Lylo 33% in 1, 33% in 2, 50% in 3
If day 2 isn't skipped
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH2 kill
Day 2 TH1 Lynch
Night 2 TH3 kill
Day 3 is lylo. With a 50% chance in one grouo and 33% chance in another.
Or if both sides focus one group
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH1 kill
Day 2 skipped
Night 2 TH2 kill
Day 3 50% chance on H1, 33% on H2, 25% H3 mis lynch on H1 and
Night 3 TH3 kill gg
Or
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH1 kill
Day 2 TH1 lynch (if we get the 50/50 wrong)
Night 2 TH2 kill
Day 3 SH1 lynch
Night 3 TH3 kill
Day 4 lylo with 2 scum, 3 town, survivor, and a 33% chance in each group.
And these are obviously worst case scenarios but like the ones where scum focus, they leave the other 2 groups pretty safe whereas if spread there kills, everyone is vulnerable.
Perhaps we play adaptively and knowing the groups helps that, but it doesn't change that we should also be trying to internally investigate our huts. So let's make use of the huts as we can.