Game Thread Night Hut Mafia - The Treacherous Neighborhoods

[Morbid Minish]

The thing is I can't change the fact things were already told but I can still be suspicious of how quickly. And his statement that he will manipulate what he can to win doesn't set with me well.

While I don't think that it harms anything with the info being out now, I do understand how you can be suspicious/upset about it being revealed so quickly due to the fact that not everyone was able to give their opinion on the matter. However, I think we've gotten a lot of discussion due to the reveal of the neighborhoods which is always a good thing.

You do make a good point about the manipulation thing though, and that does make me want to agree with Storm that Jamie might be the Survivor. After all, it would be in the Survivor's best interest to keep track of the alignments so they can have an idea of who is more likely to win and try to help them out.

 

[Storm]

 

[kokirion]

Good, I'm glad we got that over with. These neighbourhoods were already known to the mafia so the only thing that is different right now is that this info is also available to the town. And even if the mafia would have a reason to also make this public, they would be able to leak that anyway, so I'm glad we have this info in the open now, so that we can continue to the real game of chess here.

This is bullcrap. Scum would have already shared their huts. We don't have any internal investigation advantage by not sharing our huts publicly if scum knows who is in everyone's hut.

Explain using actual logic and reason where the advantage is to keeping our huts hidden. All I can see is that the Mafia has extra information that we don't, information that's extremely helpful for us. Here are all the ways:

1. If scum dies, everyone in their neighbourhood is cleared
2. If enough town dies in 1 neighbourhood, it's very easy to determine who is scum
3. If two people are acting close and they are in the same neighbourhood you know for certain they are not scumbuddies

It's just nonsense to say we'd have some special internal investigation. Again, explain with logic and reason why this is the case. Because that just sounds like nonsense. Me knowing that storm and Johnny share a hut does not inhibit my ability to find out which of you, DekuNut and Mido are scum. It's not even related.

Exactly. That is a good analysis of the situation.
From my point of view, it seems logical that scum is afraid of EXACTLY this. Scum cannot kill a neighbourhood because that means killing a member. It will be most easy for them to end the game quickly by keeping all their members alive. This can only happen if none of the neighbourhoods get eradicated. They will try to diverge the kills and damage on all the neighbourhoods so that all 3 of their members can stay alive to win the game as early as possible. So scum would kill someone easy on day 1, like storm or something (assuming for a moment he isn't scum). Then on day 2 someone like libk who had a similar opinion to storm and might also be an easy target. And in the night inbetween they would kill someone from the other neighbourhood. They just need to repeat it with one more wrong lynch and they won the game.

So tackling this is simple, as long as we are organised. and THAT is why it is so important that you guys have revealed all the neighbourhoods, we can now make these calculations ourselves as well.
We need to do the opposite to what the mafia will be doing. We need to focuss on one neighbourhood at the time. If we hit scum, the 3 others will be confirmed town. Then it is already game over for the mafia. They will have to waste 3 nights to clean up this mess, which gives us 3 days to clear yet another neighbourhood. And even if we hit town, the 3 other members of the neighbourhood will have an increased chance of being scum. So making it statistically for us a better option anyway to focuss on them rather than from someone in another neighbourhood. And everytime we clear a neighbourhood we will get more leads on the culprits in the following neighbourhood. I suggest we stick to this plan

 

[Storm]

wait...noooo...dammit... I'm goin to bed. I'm too loopy

 

[Libk]

We need to focuss on one neighbourhood at the time. If we hit scum, the 3 others will be confirmed town. Then it is already game over for the mafia. They will have to waste 3 nights to clean up this mess, which gives us 3 days to clear yet another neighbourhood. And even if we hit town, the 3 other members of the neighbourhood will have an increased chance of being scum. So making it statistically for us a better option anyway to focuss on them rather than from someone in another neighbourhood. And everytime we clear a neighbourhood we will get more leads on the culprits in the following neighbourhood. I suggest we stick to this plan

So if scum focus on one neighborhood as well do we switch to a broader approach? What I'm trying to get across is that the scum counter play to that is to eradicate a neighborhood at the cost of one team member. Then they split focus between 2. Numbers again

Day 1 lynch town in H1
Night 1 town killed in H2
Day 2 skipped because eclipse
Night 2 town killed in H3
Day 3 we still only have a 33% chance to get scum, and if we don't we go with only 4 town in n3
Night 3 town is killed
Day 4 3 scum, 3 town, survivor. Lylo 33% in 1, 33% in 2, 50% in 3

If day 2 isn't skipped
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH2 kill
Day 2 TH1 Lynch
Night 2 TH3 kill
Day 3 is lylo. With a 50% chance in one grouo and 33% chance in another.

Or if both sides focus one group
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH1 kill
Day 2 skipped
Night 2 TH2 kill
Day 3 50% chance on H1, 33% on H2, 25% H3 mis lynch on H1 and
Night 3 TH3 kill gg

Or

Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH1 kill
Day 2 TH1 lynch (if we get the 50/50 wrong)
Night 2 TH2 kill
Day 3 SH1 lynch
Night 3 TH3 kill
Day 4 lylo with 2 scum, 3 town, survivor, and a 33% chance in each group.

And these are obviously worst case scenarios but like the ones where scum focus, they leave the other 2 groups pretty safe whereas if spread there kills, everyone is vulnerable.

Perhaps we play adaptively and knowing the groups helps that, but it doesn't change that we should also be trying to internally investigate our huts. So let's make use of the huts as we can.

 

[Libk]

And since there's 50/50 chance at hitting scum if scum focuses with us, that's only 1 confirmed not mafia member and they go into the next day with pretty good probability for their guys in first focus scenario with day skip. Decent in second scenario with day skip.

We need to counter their play effectively

 

[kokirion]

So if scum focus on one neighborhood as well do we switch to a broader approach? What I'm trying to get across is that the scum counter play to that is to eradicate a neighborhood at the cost of one team member. Then they split focus between 2. Numbers again

Day 1 lynch town in H1
Night 1 town killed in H2
Day 2 skipped because eclipse
Night 2 town killed in H3
Day 3 we still only have a 33% chance to get scum, and if we don't we go with only 4 town in n3
Night 3 town is killed
Day 4 3 scum, 3 town, survivor. Lylo 33% in 1, 33% in 2, 50% in 3

If day 2 isn't skipped
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH2 kill
Day 2 TH1 Lynch
Night 2 TH3 kill
Day 3 is lylo. With a 50% chance in one grouo and 33% chance in another.

Or if both sides focus one group
Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH1 kill
Day 2 skipped
Night 2 TH2 kill
Day 3 50% chance on H1, 33% on H2, 25% H3 mis lynch on H1 and
Night 3 TH3 kill gg

Or

Day 1 TH1 lynch
Night 1 TH1 kill
Day 2 TH1 lynch (if we get the 50/50 wrong)
Night 2 TH2 kill
Day 3 SH1 lynch
Night 3 TH3 kill
Day 4 lylo with 2 scum, 3 town, survivor, and a 33% chance in each group.

And these are obviously worst case scenarios but like the ones where scum focus, they leave the other 2 groups pretty safe whereas if spread there kills, everyone is vulnerable.

Perhaps we play adaptively and knowing the groups helps that, but it doesn't change that we should also be trying to internally investigate our huts. So let's make use of the huts as we can.

No I do not completely agree Libk. First of all, if we focuss on one group at a time, every group will be in the spotlights at one point. So no one is invulnerable, at most just lynched a little later. Evidence still piles up, and even if mafia is willing to lose members, well... they will lose members, and so there will be trails to other members lying around.

You make some valid points, but the the bottom line is very simply for the mafia: This set-up HUGELY disadvantages them. If they would prefer focussing on one group more than to convince the town to not focuss on one group, then they will still lose members. In that case they can only win by solo'ing. That means they need to kill 11 players(!). And then I am even leaving out the possibility that maybe they do not succeed, and accidentally a whole bunch of townies get confirmed. Killing 11 players.... while only 1 mis**** could mean game over. That is one hell of a good balancing game. Let's just face it, they would not prefer this option, but we can force them to.
The other option, for them to spread damage, can potentially keep 3 members alive, and do not forget how much more safe this can be for them. instead of having to kill 11 players, they would only need to kill 6. Or just survive 3 days. Of course, that too is a balancing game, but not impossible. To win by focussing on one neighbourhood, the game will take at least 5-6 days even if it goes well for them. Which allows for a lot more moments where they could potentially make mistakes. As a townie, I strongly prefer this latter scenario

 

[Libk]

. To win by focussing on one neighbourhood, the game will take at least 5-6 days even if it goes well for them.

See above where I disprove this and show it can take only 3 or 4 if it goes well for mafia. Of course this game rarely goes perfectly for either side, but you're just wrong here if we're assuming things go well for mafia. They can still win without soloing. They can win with 2 members. And, again, still have fairly safe chances if they lose one assuming things go well for them.

I repeat that I think we'll have to adapt to how they play, as we can't really force them to go in one direction or the other. We'll get a better idea of how we should progress after night 1, and hopefully we'll get a day 2

 

[kokirion]

See above where I disprove this and show it can take only 3 or 4 if it goes well for mafia. Of course this game rarely goes perfectly for either side, but you're just wrong here if we're assuming things go well for mafia. They can still win without soloing. They can win with 2 members. And, again, still have fairly safe chances if they lose one assuming things go well for them.

I repeat that I think we'll have to adapt to how they play, as we can't really force them to go in one direction or the other. We'll get a better idea of how we should progress after night 1, and hopefully we'll get a day 2

no, I get your point. But that is precisely what I disagree with. I am not going to adapt how they play, I want the town to take the lead and decide how this game is being played. 33% chance of being scum (in one of those examples you gave) is still higher than the chance of anyone else being scum. In other words, what you describe is how they are gonna play anyway. The question for us is how we are gonna deal with that. I'd say it is better for the town to focuss on neighbourhoods one by one. The remaining people of a neighbourhood have a larger chance of being scum than anyone else. If we spread our damage too the mafia will just have a bigger advantage. It is more easy to hide themselves in a big mass of people than in a small hut. And to be frankly, I find it a little suspicious that you keep pushing to go for a strategy (or a strategy of non-strategy rather) while everything shows that especially this allows the mafia a bigger advantage. And I think that precisely that is what the mafia would now try to achieve, to make us think that their own strategy is also a good strategy for the town. To let the town support the mafia's strategy so that they can complete it more quickly. And I find that very dangerous

 

[Libk]

I'm not pushing for a strategy of non strategy. You yourself said we need to do the opposite of what mafia are doing but we'll have no idea what they're doing until tomorrow. So how can we be set on a strategy yet?

 

[Libk]

I think you're misunderstanding what I asked a few posts ago. If mafia decides to focus one neighborhood at a time, do we follow their plan as well?

 

[karu]

no, I get your point. But that is precisely what I disagree with. I am not going to adapt how they play, I want the town to take the lead and decide how this game is being played. 33% chance of being scum (in one of those examples you gave) is still higher than the chance of anyone else being scum. In other words, what you describe is how they are gonna play anyway. The question for us is how we are gonna deal with that. I'd say it is better for the town to focuss on neighbourhoods one by one. The remaining people of a neighbourhood have a larger chance of being scum than anyone else. If we spread our damage too the mafia will just have a bigger advantage. It is more easy to hide themselves in a big mass of people than in a small hut. And to be frankly, I find it a little suspicious that you keep pushing to go for a strategy (or a strategy of non-strategy rather) while everything shows that especially this allows the mafia a bigger advantage. And I think that precisely that is what the mafia would now try to achieve, to make us think that their own strategy is also a good strategy for the town. To let the town support the mafia's strategy so that they can complete it more quickly. And I find that very dangerous

So what you're saying is that all of us focus on one neighborhood at a time, to weed out the scum in the hut, confirm the townies, and then move on to another hut? I like that plan

This is bullcrap. Scum would have already shared their huts. We don't have any internal investigation advantage by not sharing our huts publicly if scum knows who is in everyone's hut.

Explain using actual logic and reason where the advantage is to keeping our huts hidden. All I can see is that the Mafia has extra information that we don't, information that's extremely helpful for us. Here are all the ways:

1. If scum dies, everyone in their neighbourhood is cleared
2. If enough town dies in 1 neighbourhood, it's very easy to determine who is scum
3. If two people are acting close and they are in the same neighbourhood you know for certain they are not scumbuddies

It's just nonsense to say we'd have some special internal investigation. Again, explain with logic and reason why this is the case. Because that just sounds like nonsense. Me knowing that storm and Johnny share a hut does not inhibit my ability to find out which of you, DekuNut and Mido are scum. It's not even related.

The bolded part; keeping in mind that while the mafia knows who's town, and town doesn't even know who the mafia and other townies are. If a scum looks innocent enough and a hut member is convinced that that scum is town, they would act all buddy buddy. True that they wouldn't be scumbuddies, but there is a third party role; if the mafia were winning the game, it would benefit that third party player to help them and not the town in order to survive. So that's something to look out for I think

 

[A Link In Time]

Modnote: Storm will be replaced as soon as possible due to his ban.

 

[A Link In Time]

Vote Count 1.2:

Storm - 3 (Jamie, DekuNut, Minish_Link)

Not Voting - Cslaught02, Johnny Sooshi, karu, kokirion, Libk, Mido, Pendio, Prophecies About Bok Choy, Storm

Day ends at 12 AM EST on Friday, January 27th.

 

[Jamie]

Jamie I think you're wrong on this one. Having the huts be open knowledge gives mafia focus that they may not have had before. I feel that they're less likely to make errors in their choices now. Let's talk theoretical

We lynch town day 1, mafia hits a Townie night 1 who's in sane hut as day 1, we have 50/50 shot at hitting mafia on day 2 with basically no info, depending on the two remaining. Misslynch, then night 2 mafia kills someone in a different hut. Yeah we're gonna bag 1 scum for sure now, but we've cleared no one, abd going into day 3 we will have lost 5 town members and will be in lylo with a 33% chance of hitting scum in a neighborhood.

....vs we lynch someone day 1 scum kills someone else and we have cleared no one AND DON'T HAVE A 50/50 CHANCE AT SCUM. How the heck is that better? Because that's what we have in your scenario.