Predictions: The Wii U Launch

It’s hard to believe that the Wii U was only announced two months ago, and we still have a long wait before it goes on sale next year. That being said, we already know a large amount of information about the Wii U, vague information, but information none-the-less.

In light of all the recent news about the 3DS, I’ve been thinking a lot about what the Wii U launch will look like. The 3DS proved that software is king, but what software will Nintendo be launching alongside the Wii U to attract buyers?

We know that Wii U will launch in 2012, and we know that it will launch sometime after April, so that leaves us with a window of April-December 2012. However, I think it can be narrowed down even further.

Nintendo will not wait until December because they will want to give the system enough marketing time for holiday consumers. Christmas shoppers need to have enough time to be aware of the product and to understand that the Wii U is not the Wii. For this to happen, the Wii U must launch by November.

Then there’s E3. The 3DS was announced and launched within one year of E3 2010. The system came out before E3 2011. Nintendo doesn’t have to wait until June, but I think they will. I don’t think the system will be ready by April, but it might be by June. Launching the Wii U just after E3 will also give it more coverage than it will receive if it is launched before E3. Also, if there is something wrong with the Wii U, it’s better not to expose it before the Expo. From a business perspective, Nintendo should let any possible glitches hide in the shadow of E3 not the spotlight.

Based on this we can conclude that the launch will be sometime from June to November 2012. Based on the fact that Darksiders II, a title already confirmed for the Wii U will be released on the other two consoles in February, I personally think that the launch will lean towards June, rather than November. We should expect a summer launch, and based on my thoughts about E3 2012, I think June would be the prefect month.

However, a lot of big-name third-party games are slated with a March and April 2012 release date, so it’s entirely possible that when Nintendo said ‘after April’, they actually meant April. In that case, I’m completely wrong, which is entirely possible. After all, I’m just speculating.

But we only just heard about the Wii U two months ago, and we’ve yet to hear any major first-party launch announcements. We’ve heard about plenty of games that will eventually be released on the Wii U, but the only games we’ve gotten dates for are third-party.

There’s no way Nintendo will repeat their mistake with the 3DS. The Wii U needs to come out the door with at least one big-name first-party title, and enough quality third-parties to cary them until their next first-party release.

The problem is that Nintendo’s major teams are busy finishing off games that are due later this year. The Mario team is working on Super Mario 3D Land, and the Zelda team is still finishing up on Skyward Sword. We also know that Mario Wii U is still in the brainstorming stage. Mario and Zelda are Nintendo’s babies; they’re going to spend a lot of time working on their HD debut. We won’t be seeing them on the Wii U anytime soon.

So the question is what game has Nintendo secretly been working on that could be finished by summer 2012?

It won’t be Smash Brothers; that’s years away. I doubt it’ll be a Meroid game. There was a Metroid-themed Wii U demo at E3, but it wasn’t for a new game. After Donkey Kong: Country, I think we’ll have to wait a little while longer to see DK again. Kirby’s been seeing a lot of action, but it’s all recent, so we’ll have to wait before the Kirby team has time to work on a Wii U title. The Animal Crossing crew is busy working on a 3DS game. Kid Icarus’s fate depends upon its success on the 3DS; if we do see it on the Wii U it won’t be for several years.

So what does that leave us with? A bunch of franchises we haven’t seen for a long time and deserve to see some action again.

Fire Emblem: We haven’t seen this franchise on a platform since Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn in 2007 on the Wii. The series has since been hiding out on the Nintendo DS. While only one of the two games has been released worldwide, Fire Emblem: Shin Monshō no Nazo ~Hikari to Kage no Eiyū, has already been released in Japan. Besides localization matters, the Fire Emblem team is free to work on a game for the Wii U, and may already be in development considering the latest DS game was released in mid-2010.

Golden Sun: A relatively new franchise, Golden Sun has only made appearances on the Game Boy Advance and DS. Six years passed between the release of the original two Golden Sun games and Golden Sun: Dark Dawn, which was released late last year. However, the game has always been a handheld game; it’s never been released on a console. It would be quite the task to bring it to the Wii U. Nintendo is fully capable of meeting the challenge, but I think it would take longer than a year to develop. If we do see this game on the Wii U, I doubt we will see it until 2013.

F-Zero: An F-Zero game has not been seen since 2004, and most younger gamers are only familiar with the series due to Captain Falcon’s cameo in the Super Smash Brothers games. However, the franchise has always received very positive reception. The game has even had it’s own anime series, which aired in Japan from 2003-2004 and North America. The video-game series has known long-hiatuses before, and there’s no reason the series couldn’t return again, this time on the Wii U.

EarthBound: Also known as Mother in Japan, the EarthBound RPG series originally launched on the Famicon in 1989. The series made its North American debut on the Super Nintendo in 1995 with Mother 2. It disappeared twelve-years before returning with Mother 3 on the Game Boy Advance in 2006 and hasn’t been seen since. However, Mother 3 was never released outside of Japan. Today, most non-Japanese gamers are only acquainted with the EarthBound characters Ness and Lucas through their appearances in the Smash Brothers games. I think it’s time that this game was reintroduced to audiences outside of Japan, and I think the Wii U is a great place to start.

Star Fox: Yes, there is a Star Fox game coming out next month, but it is a remake. Like Ocarina of Time 3DS, it will sell well. It remains to be seen whether or not a development team has already started on a Star Fox Wii U. Odds are they are waiting until after Star Fox 64 3D is released, but that doesn’t mean they’re not brainstorming. A Star Fox game will come to the Wii U, but it’s going to take some time.

Any of these games could be Nintendo’s launch title, but the most likely games to make the cut are New Super Mario Bros Mii and Pikmin 3.

Super Mario Brothers Mii: Nintendo showed this game off at E3, and a demo was available on the show floor. However, this game appears to be very much the same game as Super Mario Bros. Wii, except now there are Miis. It’s not new enough or groundbreaking enough to make people go out and buy the Wii U, so while this game could easily be released by launch, it cannot carry the Wii U alone.

Pikmin 3: Shigeru Miyamoto confirmed as early has 2008 that a team was working on a new Pikmin game. At this year’s E3 he reveled that, while the game was originally intended for a Wii release this year (to celebrate the series’s tenth anniversary), the game will now be released on the Wii U because the game will play better using the Wii U controller. This is the one game we know has been in development for a long time. It could easily be ready come launch time.

Odds are that Nintendo will only have one first-party game at launch, with another one not due out until about three months after launch. This means the Wii U needs to also launch with strong third-party titles. The good news is that there are a lot of good third-party games, it’s just a matter of timing.

The only officially confirmed third-party games are Darksiders II by THQ, The Darkness II by Digital Extremes, Aliens: Colonial Marines by Sega, Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon: Future Soldier by Ubisoft, and Ninja Gaiden 3 by Team Ninja. We know that Darksiders is a launch title, and while the other four games will all be released by April, it’s hard to say whether or not the Wii U versions will be ready by the launch window. It depends on how much the development teams are taking advantage of the Wii U controller, and how much time each company has.

We also know that Ubisoft will release an Assassin’s Creed game on the Wii U, but we have no idea if it will be Revelations or a new game. We don’t know if ports of previous Assassin’s Creed games will be released either.

Below is a list of notable third-part games that will be released next year:

– Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning (38 Studios/Big Huge Games/EA; Q1 2012)

– BioShock Infinite (Itrrational Games; Q2 2012)

– Soulcalibur V (Namco; January 2012)

– Mass Effect 3 (BioWare/EA; March 2012)

– Far Cry 3 (Ubisoft; March 2012)

– Brothers in Arms: Furious 4 (March 2012)

– Dragon’s Dogma (Capcom; March 2012)

– Street Fighter X Tekken (Capcom; March 2012)

– Prototype 2 (Radical Entertainment; April 2012)

– Tekken X Street Fighter (Namco Bandai Games; October 2012)

– Tomb Raider (Crystal Dynamics/Square Enix; Fall 2012)

– Metal Gear Solid: Rising (Kojima Productions; 2012)

– Hitman: Absolution (IO Interactive/Square Enix; 2012)

– Marvel Pinball (Marvel; TBA)

There are a lot of potential Wii U games for next year. The problem is that a lot of these games will come out before the Wii U, and there have been no announcements, for the majority of the above games, on whether or not we will also be seeing them on the Wii U, in addition to the PS3 and 360. The main reason for that is because it’s very possible that most of these games will not be coming to the Wii U. If they are, we don’t know if they’ll be ports or if they will be further developed for the Wii U controller.

In addition to these upcoming titles, there have a been a lot of rumors about possible ports of games released prior to 2012.

There are also a lot of companies interested in the Wii U, but we have yet to hear about any plans for future games. The most notable of these companies is Valve. Will we see Half-Life 3 on the Wii, a port of the Portal and Portal 2, will be have access to Steam through Wii U Online, or none of the above?

So we’ve covered, first-party titles and third-party titles, but there’s still one more big area that Nintendo should not neglect come launch: Wii U Online. It needs to be working at launch and it needs to have games ready for download.

It’s already been confirmed that GameCube titles will be available in the WiiWare store, but there has to be at least one or two popular titles available to draw gamers in. The Wii U should launch with The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker. A good secondary launch title would be Lugi’s Mansion, Pikmin, Mario Sunshine, or Star Fox: Adventures (Metroid Prime should be saved for a few months after launch).

In conclusion, I think the Wii U will launch with Pikmin 3. It will come packaged with something similar to Wii Sports. Super Mario Bros. Mii will also be available at launch, but will either be packaged with the Wii U, or cost less than the standard Wii U game. The WiiWare store will have at least one major-title GameCube game, along with an additional secondary title. There will be plenty of third-party games to choose from, it’s just a matter of which ones have the best reviews.

So there we have, but what games do you lovely readers want at launch?