Industry Analysts on 3DS and Skyward Sword; Have We Forgotten About Zelda?

In light of the upcoming holiday season, several industry a analysts have put in their two-cents concerning this year’s line-up.

Both the 3DS and Skyward Sword were mentioned. If Nintendo’s upcoming 3DS software can deliver, analysts think the system should start to pick up, but the iPhone and the PSVita will start cutting into the 3DS’s potential sales market. The comments related to Skyward Sword were not so positive.

“At the end of the day it all comes down to content, and if Nintendo can deliver strong AAA video games for their 3DS platform this holiday season, sales should pick up substantially,” says Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) analyst Jesse Divnich.

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter expects solid sales for 3DS, but adds overall DS will decline because of “smartphones and the iPod Touch cutting into share and the threat of the (Sony PlayStation) Vita competing in a few months.”

I talked about this earlier this morning, and agree that it all comes to the games.

The PSVita will take some of the 3DS’s sales, but the Vita is for a different audience of gamers. The Vita is also priced at $250, the original price of the 3DS. Because of the price-cut, the two systems are no longer evenly-matched in that area. And while, $250 is an excellent price for the Vita (it’s a pretty amazing piece of handheld technology), the general public may not see it that way.

As for the smartphone issue, I know that it is an hot-button issue; I know that Nintendo’s investor’s won’t leave them alone about it; I know all these things, but I think that, at least for now, gaming on smartphones is no where close to gaming on Nintendo and Sony handhelds. Smartphones aren’t for serious gaming, they are designed first and foremost for communication. Sony and Nintendo design their handhelds first and foremost for gaming.

The comments related to Skyward Sword suggest that the game might be the flop of the season and that we have all forgotten about it:

“I do wonder about The Legend of Zelda (Skyward Sword),” says [Adam] Sessler. “It doesn’t have the usual fanboy craziness around it.”

Blame the potential sales letdown for Skyward Sword—the first Zelda console title in five years—on the struggles of the Nintendo Wii, says Pachter.

“I haven’t had anybody mention that there’s a Zelda game coming out,” he says. “It’s like they just forgot.”

Pachter suggests that Nintendo will pay the price for not launching a new system this holiday season. “The Wii has become an afterthought,” he says.

Right now, Nintendo isn’t focused on promoting Skyward Sword; they’re busy with the 3DS. The price-cut was big news and it distracted from everything else Nintendo for awhile. Nintendo went Zelda-crazy at E3; Skyward Sword news was in abundance, and it carried well into July. July was only a month ago; it hasn’t been that long. Nintendo is going to continue focusing the 3DS for a little longer, probably until Star Fox 64 3D comes out in a few weeks, but then they’ll be gearing up again to talk about Skyward Sword.

We still don’t know the release date, but it has to be between October and December; that’s coming up very fast. The Zelda Symphony concerts are going to help get everyone’s minds back on Zelda, we’re going to get new trailers, it’s going to be the talk of the town.

Just because we haven’t heard much from the Skyward Sword camp this month, that doesn’t mean anyone has forgotten about it. There’s just no need to prematurely start the marketing campaign.

As for it not having “usual fanboy craziness around it,” I don’t know where that is coming from. People I didn’t even know played Zelda are talking about this game. It’s the first big platform Zelda game in five years. The fandom is excited, and it’s going to get crazy starting in October.

Source: USA Today