A Cool, Cool Mountain
Deal. I'll take that bet. A $10 EShop card should suffice yes? If Arms doesn't sell 100,000 copies within the first month of release, I will give you a $10 EShop card, and if it does, you give me a $10 EShop card. Arms is an exciting new IP and it is going to at least do as well as Pokken, as they are very similar types of games. It's at least going to be a mild hit.Arms is not a heavy hitter. In no universe is that game a heavy hitter. I'd be willing to bet you real life money that games doesn't sell over 100,000 copies.
If you look at Nintendo's YouTube page, Super Mario Odyssey has 3.5 more million views than the BotW trailer.And as far as Dragon Quest, great, good for Japan. But when is the rest of the world getting the Dragon Quest games. Does Nintendo think only Japanese people play Dragon Quest? I want it. And as of today, there are no release dates for the West.
Interesting, because I see BoTW as the biggest title announced for the Switch to date. Hands down. From the online excitement, more people care about BoTW than Mario. It may be because Mario is late 2017 and BoTW is imminent, but I don't think the Switch's biggest title is Mario, not by a long shot.
Some people will indeed definitely wait unti Odyssey comes out. That's completely fine.But let's say that it is. Let's say that Mario is the game to push Switch sales. It's not coming until late 2017. So again, why bother? If people are waiting for Mario to get a Switch, why not wait until late 2017? The problem with good games from launch to summer still exists even if we agree that Mario is the biggest release on the console.
I'm getting it on Wii U.
I think you overestimate how important day 1 sales are, and it is more about keeping momentum. Like we have clearly proven. The Switch is ****ing sold out right now. Now in both America and Japan. So they really don't need to worry about launch.
But as for Summer. Even if you discount Arms. 2 words. Splatoon 2. That is an absolutely huge and important title for Nintendo, and you cannot possibly deny that it isn't a heavy hitter. Splatoon on Wii U sold more than Mario Maker, and it came very close to selling as much as Smash Bros for Wii U. That's the big title for the summer, and that's where sales will pick up after launch. Even if Arms is a flop as you say.