The Switch is DOOMED

[Lozjam]

Arms is not a heavy hitter. In no universe is that game a heavy hitter. I'd be willing to bet you real life money that games doesn't sell over 100,000 copies.

Deal. I'll take that bet. A $10 EShop card should suffice yes? If Arms doesn't sell 100,000 copies within the first month of release, I will give you a $10 EShop card, and if it does, you give me a $10 EShop card. Arms is an exciting new IP and it is going to at least do as well as Pokken, as they are very similar types of games. It's at least going to be a mild hit.

And as far as Dragon Quest, great, good for Japan. But when is the rest of the world getting the Dragon Quest games. Does Nintendo think only Japanese people play Dragon Quest? I want it. And as of today, there are no release dates for the West.



Interesting, because I see BoTW as the biggest title announced for the Switch to date. Hands down. From the online excitement, more people care about BoTW than Mario. It may be because Mario is late 2017 and BoTW is imminent, but I don't think the Switch's biggest title is Mario, not by a long shot.

If you look at Nintendo's YouTube page, Super Mario Odyssey has 3.5 more million views than the BotW trailer.

But let's say that it is. Let's say that Mario is the game to push Switch sales. It's not coming until late 2017. So again, why bother? If people are waiting for Mario to get a Switch, why not wait until late 2017? The problem with good games from launch to summer still exists even if we agree that Mario is the biggest release on the console.



I'm getting it on Wii U.

Some people will indeed definitely wait unti Odyssey comes out. That's completely fine.

I think you overestimate how important day 1 sales are, and it is more about keeping momentum. Like we have clearly proven. The Switch is ****ing sold out right now. Now in both America and Japan. So they really don't need to worry about launch.

But as for Summer. Even if you discount Arms. 2 words. Splatoon 2. That is an absolutely huge and important title for Nintendo, and you cannot possibly deny that it isn't a heavy hitter. Splatoon on Wii U sold more than Mario Maker, and it came very close to selling as much as Smash Bros for Wii U. That's the big title for the summer, and that's where sales will pick up after launch. Even if Arms is a flop as you say.

 

[Kylo Ken]

Omg loz, why'd you take that bet? XD

 

[Jamie]

@Lozjam
Good god my man he said 100,000 lifetime you could at least have made the bet for 100,000 in the first 3 years or something..

 

[Kylo Ken]

He must believe it's deep fighting gameplay will make the esport community orgasm and everyone will start buying it

 

[CrimsonCavalier]

@Lozjam
Good god my man he said 100,000 lifetime you could at least have made the bet for 100,000 in the first 3 years or something..

Haha, yeah I think he misread me. I won't enforce the deal if he misread that. Though legally I could

But as for Summer. Even if you discount Arms. 2 words. Splatoon 2. That is an absolutely huge and important title for Nintendo, and you cannot possibly deny that it isn't a heavy hitter. Splatoon on Wii U sold more than Mario Maker, and it came very close to selling as much as Smash Bros for Wii U. That's the big title for the summer, and that's where sales will pick up after launch. Even if Arms is a flop as you say.

Oh I absolutely agree that Splatoon 2 is totally a AAA title. In another thread I pointed to 3 games from now until summer that are "killer apps" (a term that has fallen out of favor, I've noticed): Breath of the Wild, Xenoblade 2, and Splatoon 2.

My worry is that 3 games in the span of 5 months is not sufficient to hold the momentum. That's my entire point. We both agree momentum is key, and I think 3 games isn't enough.

 

[Kylo Ken]

I think 3 games for 5 months is a bit of a stretch, but it'll work. As long as they keep 3rd party support and good 1st party games like the wii u had, they'll be fine.

 

[CrimsonCavalier]

As long as they keep 3rd party support and good 1st party games like the wii u had, they'll be fine.

Right. And as of today, right now, that I just checked the list, they don't have good 3rd party support or good 1st party games.

Which is my entire problem. We got a lot of 3rd party games on that list, and they almost all shovelware. Not a single AAA 3rd party game in the first 5 months. I mean, for goodness sake, Resident Evil released today, and it has not been announced for Switch. Why the hell not? That game should have been on the Switch Day One, no questions asked.

 

[the8thark]

I'm getting it on Wii U.

Yes you are. Millions can't, unless they get a WiiU first.

 

[Justac00lguy]

You did. I mentioned DQ and you said "none of those are system sellers". And no, it is unfair because FE was recently rebooted. Its popularity has gone way up in the west. We will see how the console version goes buy handhelds weren't selling well either until Awakening.


A party? Bruh...

Obviously you aren't well informed. I'm going to bring mine to random rooftop parties in the middle of a city where a slight breeze or rainfall could break the console. This is the FUTURE of gaming.

 

[CrimsonCavalier]

Yes you are. Millions can't, unless they get a WiiU first.

This is neither here nor there, but I am really interested in seeing which version sells more. I think more people will get the Wii U version than we all think. I think the Switch version will probably outsell the Wii U version, but I think a lot of people underestimate how many people are getting the Wii U version.

 

[Justac00lguy]

Sure, it's common for games like FIFA and Call of Duty when a new generation comes out.

 

[Dio]

Nope. It's a console that you can take with you. It's very clear. And even if we argue about whether it's a console that you can take with you or a hybrid, Nintendo have done a very good job of explaining that this is a brand new thing. No one is confused as to whether this is a Wii U peripheral.

No it isn't very clear. I thought it should be clear that it is indeed a hybrid.
It looks like a hybrid to me and I have seen it described as such by others. However you say it doesn't to you. That indicates it is not clear messaging.

I don't see a problem with games being released on both as long as (1) they are different enough to warrant two games and (2) the Switch gets its version first, and by a large amount of time. That way people would be able to clearly distinguish the two games as different.

You get the same sort of experience playing Smash and HW on both Wii U and 3DS and no matter what features one has that the other don't so long as the core experience remains the same this dual release thing they had going on will only kill the Switch.

Well good to know that you've defined "crowd" for us.

Aside from that being absolutely absurd, if Nintendo manage to snag the entire Wii U owner base as a starting point, or even a large amount of it, within the first 12–18 months, it will likely be more successful commercially than the Wii U.

It is not even slightly absurd let alone absolutely absurd. The crowds I mentioned are significantly larger than the Wii U buyer base.

If they manage to snag the entire Wii U buyer base? How will they do that? They killed their brand and lost the faith of the people who purchased. I am sure many won't return for a second helping, particularly if we get a repeat of Wi U's launch.

I'd say that was more because the Wii U had other problems besides exclusivity. By the time Smash and HW came out, it was pretty obvious the Wii U wasn't going to do well. That's not the case with the Switch.

It isn't obvious wether the Switch will do well or not but it is pretty obvious what they need to avoid to ensure that it doesn't flop.

I'm not sure how you've come to that conclusion. The games they announced—as few as they are—actually appeal to the mainstream gamer like never before. That has been literally their entire marketing campaign. No kids. No parents. Mainstream gamers.

What mainstream games have been announced. Skyrim? Pretty much everyone who wanted Skyrim has played it.

You just said the mainstream gamer and the handheld gamer are different. How would phasing out the 3DS bring in more mainstream gamers?

It wouldn't but it would increase the sales of the Switch. Nintendo needs to grab those and the mainstream gamer.

 

[CrimsonCavalier]

You get the same sort of experience playing Smash and HW on both Wii U and 3DS and no matter what features one has that the other don't so long as the core experience remains the same this dual release thing they had going on will only kill the Switch.

The handheld and console experiences are very different. That's the whole point. The console experience is far better. We've talked about this before. I believe I have even seen you say it. You've also said a game on the PS4 > Switch because of power. So how can you say the 3DS and Wii U experience are the same? You are literally contradicting your arguments, sometimes in the same post.

No, the experiences are not the same. Any dual release on the Wii U was far superior to the 3DS simply because it's a console. The features might be different, and yes, maybe even better, but the experience itself, the controls, the resolution on the TV, the framerate, the screen-size, all of that is better on Wii U. And it will be better on Switch than 3DS. Just like, assuming framerate is the same, the experience would be better on PS4 than Switch.

It is not even slightly absurd let alone absolutely absurd. The crowds I mentioned are significantly larger than the Wii U buyer base.

Except that's not what you said. You said 13 million isn't a crowd. Which, you're right, isn't absurd, it's stupid. It was an incredibly stupid thing to say.

Thirteen million people is a crowd. Maybe 70 million is a bigger crowd, but to say that the Wii U's userbase of 13 million isn't a crowd is disingenuous to say the least.

If they manage to snag the entire Wii U buyer base? How will they do that? They killed their brand and lost the faith of the people who purchased. I am sure many won't return for a second helping, particularly if we get a repeat of Wi U's launch.

And to be honest, it's looking that way, isn't it? I'm looking at the Switch launch software lineup and it's very terrible. They just announced I Am Setsuna as a launch title, but between that and Zelda, that's one must-own game and one decent-looking game. Where's Resident Evil 7? I don't understand why that's not announced, never mind not a launch title.

Objectively, the Wii U's launch lineup was better than what we're getting with the Switch.

What mainstream games have been announced. Skyrim? Pretty much everyone who wanted Skyrim has played it.

Splatoon and Xenoblade are core gamer titles. I'm not counting Skyrim because, as you said, no one is getting that game on Switch. Literally no one is going to wait until Holiday 2017 to get a 2011 game.

It wouldn't but it would increase the sales of the Switch. Nintendo needs to grab those and the mainstream gamer.

Since you last posted, things have changed dramatically. The software lineup for the system is poor, to say the least. As someone who was pretty excited about the Switch at the announcement, I've pretty much completely lost all interest in the machine. I really want to play Xeno 2, but there is literally nothing else coming in 2017 worth $300.

 

[Dio]

The handheld and console experiences are very different. That's the whole point. The console experience is far better. We've talked about this before. I believe I have even seen you say it. You've also said a game on the PS4 > Switch because of power. So how can you say the 3DS and Wii U experience are the same? You are literally contradicting your arguments, sometimes in the same post.

No, the experiences are not the same. Any dual release on the Wii U was far superior to the 3DS simply because it's a console. The features might be different, and yes, maybe even better, but the experience itself, the controls, the resolution on the TV, the framerate, the screen-size, all of that is better on Wii U. And it will be better on Switch than 3DS. Just like, assuming framerate is the same, the experience would be better on PS4 than Switch.

As I have said before there is not just one market. I do not necessarily represent the average gamer. I am someone who is buying a switch to play the best version of Breath of The Wild. If no other games were coming to Switch I'd still buy one to play Breath of The Wild. Therefore, when I talk about marketing and criticize Nintendos strategies to sell consoles to people I dont talk about to sell to myself but to the average mainstream gamer or the average 3DS owner.

It is true that I prefer the console experience and believe that the more beautiful a game is visually the higher it should score, as graphics are part of the overall package. Some people only care about gameplay and worse graphics, smaller screens and lower framerates do not appear to hamper the enjoyment for alot of people. I know many a 3DS owner does not care about graphics and prefer Smash 3DS to Wii U. Saying the U version is objectively better isn't going to change these peoples minds. I know this and if I was in charge of Marketing Nintendo consoles, I would have to phase out the 3DS to get most of the users to switch to Switch.

Except that's not what you said. You said 13 million isn't a crowd. Which, you're right, isn't absurd, it's stupid. It was an incredibly stupid thing to say.

Thirteen million people is a crowd. Maybe 70 million is a bigger crowd, but to say that the Wii U's userbase of 13 million isn't a crowd is disingenuous to say the least.

It would form a literal crowd but it is comparatively small and I said they weren't to emphasise that. You should have been able to see what I was trying to do there and didn't really need to comment on what you thought of the statement. Because your opinion on the IQ of the statement in question isn't relevant to the discussion.

And to be honest, it's looking that way, isn't it? I'm looking at the Switch launch software lineup and it's very terrible. They just announced I Am Setsuna as a launch title, but between that and Zelda, that's one must-own game and one decent-looking game. Where's Resident Evil 7? I don't understand why that's not announced, never mind not a launch title.

Objectively, the Wii U's launch lineup was better than what we're getting with the Switch.

It is terrible and I think it has already been mentioned a lot of Wii U owners will buy the most popular launch title for the inferior machine.

Splatoon and Xenoblade are core gamer titles. I'm not counting Skyrim because, as you said, no one is getting that game on Switch. Literally no one is going to wait until Holiday 2017 to get a 2011 game.

They have a following but let's keep it real, they aren't heavy hitters like Mario and (Before SS) 3D Zeldas.

Since you last posted, things have changed dramatically. The software lineup for the system is poor, to say the least. As someone who was pretty excited about the Switch at the announcement, I've pretty much completely lost all interest in the machine. I really want to play Xeno 2, but there is literally nothing else coming in 2017 worth $300.

Looks like the title of this thread is an accurate prediction doesn't it.

 

[CrimsonCavalier]

It is terrible and I think it has already been mentioned a lot of Wii U owners will buy the most popular launch title for the inferior machine.

I wasn't going to, but now I am. But it's a gamble, right? Because perhaps the game won't run well on the Wii U. I don't mind if the Switch version is better (because it will be), as long as the Wii U version is playable. But I can't justify to myself to pay $300 to only play one game that I can already play on a console I already own.

They have a following but let's keep it real, they aren't heavy hitters like Mario and (Before SS) 3D Zeldas.

I dunno man, Splatoon was wildly popular. About 34% of Wii U owners bought the game. That's a fairly big percentage, considering most games probably don't reach that high. And especially for a brand-new IP, I think that's very solid. Will Splatoon 2 push units? Probably not. Zelda and Mario will, but I think Splatoon will be very popular again.

Looks like the title of this thread is an accurate prediction doesn't it.

I dunno. It hasn't released yet, so there could still be some serious changes from now until March. My overall mentality towards the Switch hasn't changed: if more core games for core gamers are announced—with release dates—I think it will sway a lot of people on the fence or those who aren't interested currently.

But looking at the current list of games, we have things like Bomberman and Puyo Puyo Tetris. It's cringe-worthy.

You know what the Switch needs to give it a kick in the right direction? As I said, it needed Resident Evil 7, which already looks like it's not happening. It needs (if the thing exists) the Dark Souls Collection. Hitman Season 1, which comes out later this month. It needs Deus Ex: Mankind Divided Special Edition, with the new DLC. Ghost Recon, for those with that FPS itch. And finally, and definitely not least, Mass Effect: Andomeda. Someone tell me why Andomeda isn't coming to Switch at launch?? It comes out the same month!

Instead, oh boy, Human Research Machine (whatever the hell that is), 1-2 Switch, and World of Goo.

Just ... ugh.

And the thing is, aside from Deus Ex and Mass Effect, I don't care about those games. They don't interest me at all, but they're important.