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Team Fortress 2: Mann vs. Machine

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kokirion

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Great idea @kokirion
Losing one of our Cops is unfortunate however. :( Also sad for Crusader, who didn't really get to play much before being killed off.
Don't worry about that :P He had plenty of time if he had simply posted a bit more :P Besides, now we know that we have cops and therefore know for sure about the 7th town class, without Crusader's death my plan would've been impossible to use.
 

ectoBiologist

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These are the official classes. Out of these here, it is confirmed that we have Scouts, Demomans, Heavies, Engineers, Medics and Spies. Only Snipers, Pyro's and Soldiers are missing. Probably, snipers are the vigs that we know that exist.

So far, we know for sure that Deku included 7 classes. 7x2=14. 14+4(arguably the amount of mafia)=18. This leaves 2.

I am quite confident that this means we have another pair of townies. It's not unthinkable that Deku added third party. But, I have a few reasons why I believe he did not include them:
1) There is no Serial Killer. We would probably have noticed that by now. This would imply that there are 2 non-SK third party roles in the game
2) The inclusion of 2 non-SK roles seems unlikely. e.g. 2 survivors. 1 SK and 1 survivor for example wouldn't be impossible, but 2 is a lot.
3) In Deku's original set-up, he asked for 23 players. Contrary to the current 20, this is an unequal amount. If you multiple the 9 classes by 2, and add the 4 mafiosi, this leaves 1 players left: probably the third party role.

The most likely explanation is that when Deku removed roles, he first removed the third player role and after that townies in pairs of 2 (he also requested people to join in pairs, in hindsight to full op both the blue and red versions of town roles. So this supports my theory).

Having established that there is no third party, we can say with a lot of confidence that there is probably 1 town class left that we have not yet discovered.

The big question here is, does that town class have a power or is it a powerless class like engineer and demoman?
So far, we know that there are 4 VT's in the game. 2 of them died (hence we know, because they both still have their living counterparts). 2 other people (soft)claimed VT: Frozen Chosen and Ver-Go-a-Go-Go. This is important because if we know for sure that there are only 4 VT's and no one else counter-claims, we can be sure that FC and Vergo are town. This greatly solidifies our already strong position, might prevent a mislynch (e.g. Vergo) and gives us more people whose analyses we can trust.

For this reason, I want to ask everyone. If you are a townie from the 8th class, a class that we have not yet encountered, please soft-claim and answer my question: Do you have a power or not? Do not specifically tell me what power and whether it works on odd/even days, just whether or not you have a power is enough. If this 8th class is non-VT, we know there are 4 VT's and 4 people that claim to be one. We can then ask the next question around, for everyone who truly is a VT to counter-claim (because then we know that either Vergo or FC is scum). If this doesn't happen, we know Vergo, FC and probably the one soft-claiming the 8th class* are town. If the 8th class player says he has no power, we know that there are not 4 but 6 VT's. In that case, we have 5 VT's and one spot left. So, no, we cannot yet firmly confirm Vergo and FC, but with having 5 out of 6 claims we can easily confirm that tomorrow, and we have the player who soft-claimed the 8th class as a confirmed townie.
So by following this strategy, we will at least confirm 1 townie today and possibly 3.

We are close to finishing the puzzle of this game. Just a bit more and it's game over for the mafia.


*We can also be quite confident that the one soft-claiming the 8th class is town. If he/she claims that they have or do not have power whereas this is a lie (50% chance) the real players from this class can counter-claim and we will have found scum. Even if they guess correctly, as soon as accidentily one of the real players from this class die, there will be only 1 spot left and 1 who claims it. If there is secretly a second who knows he/she has that role, he knows that the one making this original claim is lying and can then counter-claim. In other words, it is suicide for mafia to fake this soft-claim and so whomever makes the claim will have my trust.
Good plan. It is very well possible we may have two more VT's, but looking at the remaining roles, I still believe it's possible to have a JOAT role. A soldier would work well with the role, like people have said, and it's not impossible yet. The JOAT's may just be playing it safe and not killing, and instead using other abilities. Other than that, I'm not sure what else they may be. I looked at the Soldier character, and is there any roles dealing with explosives, or anything? I mean, that would probably be better off with the Demoman, if there were a role like that, but it could be possible he chose Soldier for it over Demoman.
 
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Shame we lost a cop. Because SMS never posted (from what I remember), it's reasonable to assume that he didn't investigate anyone night one. Whoever Crusader investigated is irrelevant now as well, sadly (willing to bet money it was me, I NEVER forget cops named Thareous).

It seems likely that we have two doctors, with an odd/even mechanic. Whoever the doctor saved last night is almost definitely town as there is a clear distinction between the mafia target and the vigilante kill.

I like your plan, @kokirion . Seems sound to me.

Good plan. It is very well possible we may have two more VT's, but looking at the remaining roles, I still believe it's possible to have a JOAT role. A soldier would work well with the role, like people have said, and it's not impossible yet. The JOAT's may just be playing it safe and not killing, and instead using other abilities. Other than that, I'm not sure what else they may be. I looked at the Soldier character, and is there any roles dealing with explosives, or anything? I mean, that would probably be better off with the Demoman, if there were a role like that, but it could be possible he chose Soldier for it over Demoman.

I'm very surprised that people think that the "soldier" might have some special ability. It's like the most plain, boring role name in TF2 when we have role names like "pyro" and "spy". Coincidentally, Toxic, I'm wondering why you think there's a JOAT role of all things when we've had no indication at all.

Putting together a list of people and where I suspect everyone stands. Don't know if I'll share it anytime soon, but the mafia short-list gets shorter and shorter by the day.
 

ectoBiologist

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I'm very surprised that people think that the "soldier" might have some special ability. It's like the most plain, boring role name in TF2 when we have role names like "pyro" and "spy". Coincidentally, Toxic, I'm wondering why you think there's a JOAT role of all things when we've had no indication at all.
No real evidence, except for that he would be a good, versatile character for the role. The Wiki itself says it's (one of) the most flexible characters, and I just put two and two together. I'm just trying to get conversation going, and putting it out as a possibility. Like I've said, the JOAT's may just be acting cautious and not killing. I'm not saying that I know for sure.
 

Night Owl

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Koki's plan seems really solid. Though it depends on the cooperation of the yet unknown class.

I wonder why Toxic seems to be entertaining the idea of a JOAT being the unknown class, I haven't seen anything in the night scenes to necessarily suggest that. Is Toxic soft claiming?

The weekend is here, so here are my current thoughts of everyone; subject to change as I learn more.


Presumed town : I don't have anything to suggest that they are lying
  • Kokirion Softclaimed day 3
  • Frozen Chosen claimed VT day 2
  • Malon CC Day 1
  • Ver-go-a-go-go Softclaimed day 3
Possibly Town
  • Tristan - He was the first to mention the odd/even limitations on town powers when he asked malon about his claim. I suspect that he is a town power role also. My guess is that because of his power role he had a hunch that town had limitations on their roles and asked malon as a test to determine whether malon was telling the truth. If Malon had answered that he doesn't have limitations, Tristan would likely have accused him of fake claiming.

Neutral
  • Toxic_Snowman - feels new, and seems to be playing relatively neutrally. Doesn't feel like he's hiding, yet doesn't feel like he is hunting either. :/
  • Soul - Feels like he is adamantly questioning defending those he thinks are town or scum. I think he might be protown, because I get a sense of disorientation when I read his posts like he isn't certain of anything.
  • HeroOfTime - feels like a very new person still learn the ropes, feels protown
  • Zelda15 - inactive with reasons, not enough to read
  • Jamie - I don't have much, except he seems to have a vendetta against Soul. Laser focus on one person isn't a bad thing necessarily, though it could be a distraction tactic.
Possibly Scum
  • A Link in Time - You put yourself right in the middle of the Doc lynch without voicing a reason, and I don't remember you voting for anyone prior. The middle of a scum lynch train would be a good location for scum to hide as it wouldn't get suspected. He was in your undecided list, which would be a good list of fellow scum members because if they flip scum there isn't a link back to you. I have a hunch that your list places people in order of benefit/threat to you as scum, with a few changes based on general consensus at the time.
  • Viral Maze - It's very disorienting reading your posts, It feels as if you are trying to be suspicious of everything and making a show of it. Yet at the same time, it feels as if you are avoiding the active pursuit of any of your suspicions
  • Mido - same reasons I suspect him from day 3
 
Not sure if the last possible town role has been soft claimed or if really is just spit balling for ideas. I'm inclined to believe Toxic is just throwing some theories out there, simply because a JOAT seems a bit too powerful of a role to have in a set-up like this. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

Night Owl said:
  • A Link in Time - You put yourself right in the middle of the Doc lynch without voicing a reason, and I don't remember you voting for anyone prior. The middle of a scum lynch train would be a good location for scum to hide as it wouldn't get suspected. He was in your undecided list, which would be a good list of fellow scum members because if they flip scum there isn't a link back to you. I have a hunch that your list places people in order of benefit/threat to you as scum, with a few changes based on general consensus at the time.
A Link In Time said:
I am fine with lynching Tristan, Doc, or Toxic_Snowman as two of the three are on my "leaning scum" list and one I have no opinion about yet. I think a Tristan lynch would give us more information, simply because he's been posting more than the other aforementioned two players, but I can agree with other peoples' sentiments that at least one, if not two or three, mafia are lurking among the inactives. Toxic has alarmed me a bit more than Doc, as I mentioned before. Returning to Tristan, he would fit the bill of a more experienced player who would want Sadia out of the way early on, as was previously discussed.

@kokirion Are you suspicious of Tristan for what he said at the start of the game day, and because he possibly proposed a Sadia lynch if he is scum?

#867

I had no reasoning for thinking Doc, in particular, was either town or scum, since he barely posted in the game thread, but I did provide reasoning for wanting to lynch an inactive. Of the people who were originally on my neutral list, one has turned up to be the Godfather, while the other was a town cop. I still do not have a clear read on Mido, and I would like to hear a bit more from Jamie before making a judgment. @Jamie, are you still suspicious of Soul and/or Tristan?
 

Jamie

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No, yesterday's results destroyed my suspicions of Soul.
 

Jamie

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I was thinking that the 2 remaining townies could also be masons (would fit soldiers maybe). In that case, if you're soft-claiming and you're mason, also just say you have a power.
Actually, friend, I think there's more VTs than you think.
 

Jamie

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Don't forget the possibility that Deku straight up eliminated one of the classes since he got less players than he wanted, by the way.
 

kokirion

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Don't forget the possibility that Deku straight up eliminated one of the classes since he got less players than he wanted, by the way.
That's a ridiculous theory. I see absolutely no reason to even consider the possibility that there are classless townies.
In all honesty, anyone who would suggest such a theory seems extremely scummy to me. Now that the web for the mafia has almost closed they need to come up with a strategy to avoid getting caught. This kind of doubt to be spread over the town would be an ideal way to do that.

Unless you're soft-claiming to be one yourself of course. Is that the case?
 

Jamie

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That's a ridiculous theory. I see absolutely no reason to even consider the possibility that there are classless townies.
In all honesty, anyone who would suggest such a theory seems extremely scummy to me. Now that the web for the mafia has almost closed they need to come up with a strategy to avoid getting caught. This kind of doubt to be spread over the town would be an ideal way to do that.

Unless you're soft-claiming to be one yourself of course. Is that the case?
Fam... reread my post lol I was saying what if say "pyro" was completely eliminated and there are just no pyros.. 8 classes.
 

kokirion

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Fam... reread my post lol I was saying what if say "pyro" was completely eliminated and there are just no pyros.. 8 classes.
Yes, but isn't that what we are already expecting? I mean, there are 9 classes. 9x2= 18 and add 4 mafia to that is 2 too many. And taking into accound that Deku only allowed people to join in pairs (to have an even amount of players), he was probably adding/removing VT classes. So exactly, he removed one. But we still do not know whether the last undiscovered class is a class with powers or a class with without powers.

If we know they have powers, then there are only 2 VT's left. And with 2 claims, we can simply counter claim if someone else is also a VT. And if no one counter claims we can see their claims as genuine.
 
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