Team Fortress 2: Mann vs. Machine

[Storm]

Love coming back to a discussion. I love you guys. Any questions for me while im here?

 

[Mellow Ezlo]

Love coming back to a discussion. I love you guys. Any questions for me while im here?

Are there any players who currently catch your eye in regards to suspicious activity and why?

 

[Storm]

Well... It is Day 1. And from how it feels theres going to be several AFK Modkills, so im going to ignore the 3 or 4 of us who might get killed for not posting enough. I am kinda getting a scum read from Pendio... Thats all ill say for now because ive been working for 12 hours and my feet feel like they are going to curl upwards. But i will be back in the morning with a fresh mind and a detail-oriented thought process. Although we seem to be at odds, Tristan, i do not believe you to be one of those damn synths right now.

 

[kokirion]

This. I don't find Storm's personality or playstyle all that annoying or scummy. Dan is very similar, just more eloquent. I find it different, but acceptable to a certain point. Storm near the end of Day3/4 in Revival was annoying as he didn't help at all, but we had a solid confirmed townie for most of the game who had the Mafia RBs attention for 3 nights.

So you claimed a insta-included role, knowing another player had it, knowing that player could and would counter claim (like you did in Revival), and then eventually say 'jk' and claim you have a role mafia would want to kill?

I can't tell if you're scum trying to save his ass after a botched fake claim, or just a poor townie player.
Fos: Storm

@kokirion Do you believe Storm is town because of the absurdities of his actions? That town is the only choice for his alignment as mafia are more calculated and careful than townies?

I quoted the first 2 parts because those are pretty much in line with my own thoughts.

I have to answer your question with a careful no.
Anyone can do such actions, it is not persé more likely that he is town. However, if he would be together with me on a mafia team, I would've tried to call him back. That would not have prevented everything, but maybe could have taken off some rough edges. If he'd be mafia I would expect his mafia team to, at the very list, have tried to keep him in check. The list of rash actions he took is already so long that it just seems rather implausible for me that he's part of a mafia team.
Furthermore, I see Storm as a chaotic player. That's really not special though, what people often mistakenly see as the difference between "experienced" and "unexperienced" players is mostly just a difference about the confidence players have in their own capabilities. Storm takes rash actions, he feels very quickly corncered (a tad paranoia). He doesn't feel like he can get a hold of the game, and so tries to obtain this security by acting. Just look at his post count, he's technically responsible for having written a couple of pages.
If he would be on a mafia team I would think that he could find a part of that security in his team. He can confidentially share his thoughts there and ask them what to do. That would not change his playstyle completely, but he might've exchanged a part of his posts and rash actions here for a wall of posts in his QT.

I certainly do not rule out he's not mafia, but my analyses just tell me he's more likely to be town than scum.
But his new claim did somewhat change his position. I no longer think he has a powerful role, I think power-wise he's not that significant. Which also means that his potential death would be less problematic would he turn town. And there's still that chance that he is in fact scum. Having thought it through again, I'm less opposing a storm lynch right now. Regardless, though, I still think he's probably town and so would prefer not to lynch him. Because it is probably pointless.

 

[kokirion]

I now also see a good aspect about the current situation. I think it is very likely that we still have our second doctor hidden.

Maybe we can save Malon too, knowing this.
We can play the same game. The hidden doc, who stays hidden, tosses a coin coming night. Heads means protecting Malon, tails means choosing someone else. In this case, the mafia doesn't know who the player is that might protect Malon, and so cannot RB him. We can still raise the bar like this for the mafia to target Malon, and so might actually keep him alive for some days if we're lucky

 

[Storm]

What Town? We are 20 Mercenaries in a dust bowl. Youre either Red Blue or Gray

 

[Pen]

I am kinda getting a scum read from Pendio...

Any reason for that scum read? Or is it baseless?

I no longer think he has a powerful role, I think power-wise he's not that significant.

Please explain why you seem to think this. I do not see any reason as to why his role would be specifically weak.

I now also see a good aspect about the current situation. I think it is very likely that we still have our second doctor hidden.

Maybe we can save Malon too, knowing this.
We can play the same game. The hidden doc, who stays hidden, tosses a coin coming night. Heads means protecting Malon, tails means choosing someone else. In this case, the mafia doesn't know who the player is that might protect Malon, and so cannot RB him. We can still raise the bar like this for the mafia to target Malon, and so might actually keep him alive for some days if we're lucky

I agree strongly with this. Whoever the other Doctor is should definitely consider this tactic.

Oh and one more thing, Kirion, you never answered one of my questions from earlier. Am I seriously the one player you'd most like to see dead at the end of this day?

 

[kokirion]

Please explain why you seem to think this. I do not see any reason as to why his role would be specifically weak.

Sure, it's because of the game set-up. I wasn't sure if sharing that was gonna give us an example, but other people already hinted to it, so let's just discuss it. From the beginning I wondered about 2 things:
- There are 2 town camps, and during the sign ups, in the end Dekunut was only allowing people to join in pairs. He needs the mafia completed in the game anyway, so I assume he's simply adding/removing townies. The fact the he specifically needed 2 led me to think the town camps are equally large. This, in combination with some things about my own role (which are irrelevant for now) and the claims made so far made me suspect every role is double.
- Taken from my own role I had suspicions that Deku is adding unusual roles to the game. I don't want to claim in anyway, but just to say I don't think he's limiting himself to only the most frequently used roles. This obviously indicates that he probably added a whole range of these roles, and also gave birth to my hypothesis that he might not have included vanilla townies. I didn't feel like sharing these thoughts so far because I wanted to see if someone would attempt to claim VT, which would then be quite a big scum tell, but people already mentioned this possibility before.
Storm mentioned he's not a doctor but still important. I wonder if he simply has such a mirror role. A role which Dekunut simply gave him so to replace all VT's. In other words, he might pretty much be a VT but with a small specialty, and he simply believes it to be important (whereas it's not in comparison to all other roles in the game).

To be truthful, the second hypothesis is only a guess. But I think it fits the evidence, and if he's not a doctor, there are not that many power roles left. And if he does still is a power role, my other theory argues that every role has a mirror role, and so he would never be the full or sole vig/cop, if he even is one.

Oh and one more thing, Kirion, you never answered one of my questions from earlier. Am I seriously the one player you'd most like to see dead at the end of this day?

I kind of just woke up before my first post today ^^. I was gonna think that one through.
I am writing down my thoughts about every player in this game, and in an attempt to "explain" todays events I came up with a couple of possible culprits for now, with the super super limited evidence and leads we have on day 1. You were one of the potential culprits. I targeted you because the others were less solid and needed to post more first, and I wanted to see your reactions. Your responses did not seem any bit townish to me, which made me more confident. Although during the night you did join the actual discussions more, which initially used to be one of my main reasons for suspecting you. I still don't trust you, bro, but I need to clear my mind anyhow right now about what to do.
Maybe I'll tell the thoughts I have about every player so far later today, I don't know yet if that will be wise.

 

[Pen]

To be truthful, the second hypothesis is only a guess. But I think it fits the evidence, and if he's not a doctor, there are not that many power roles left.

There are plenty of other possibilities for a powerful role that Storm could be having. Vigilante, Cop, Roleblocker, Tracker, Watcher and Jack-of-all-trades are just s a few examples. I still do not think your reasoning makes any sense. It feels like you are just theorizing without any logic.

Your responses did not seem any bit townish to me, which made me more confident. Although during the night you did join the actual discussions more, which initially used to be one of my main reasons for suspecting you.

As far as I can tell there are several other players who share my views and opinions on what is going on. So why the vote on me specifically? You do not even seem all that sure about your vote. I figured that since you are voting for me, you would rather want me dead than any of the other players. However, you have yet to confirm that.

And regarding me posting at night (night our time zone), it is simply because I like staying up at night a lot and I do most of my sleeping when the sun is up. In fact, I am just about to go to bed now. I will be back here when I wake up.

 

[Soul]

I thought it was odd that he made a claim like that without backing it up.

As many have explained, it is one of the worst things you can do to announce your role on the first day, especially when fakeclaiming. His explosive response also sounded guilty imo. This is the first day, one guess is as good as the other, and as there was something against Storm, I decided to cast my vote towards him. I did think it odd that you questioned my vote while having the same one yourself, but, no, I wasn't just giving a random vote.

These two statements contradict each other. You're saying in the second quote that claiming on Day One is one of the worst things you can do, but the only logical way for Malon to back up his claims WAS to announce his role on Day One. He couldn't have been a cop that investigated Storm because it was Day One. The only possible explanation of how he could have known Storm was fakeclaiming was that he was the Red Medic himself. If you agree that him claiming was a mistake, why did you pressure him to do just that?

I now also see a good aspect about the current situation. I think it is very likely that we still have our second doctor hidden.

Maybe we can save Malon too, knowing this.
We can play the same game. The hidden doc, who stays hidden, tosses a coin coming night. Heads means protecting Malon, tails means choosing someone else. In this case, the mafia doesn't know who the player is that might protect Malon, and so cannot RB him. We can still raise the bar like this for the mafia to target Malon, and so might actually keep him alive for some days if we're lucky

I agree, except for the random factor. What's the point in doing that when the second doctor is hidden? If anything, it gives the mafia a chance to still target Malon because it's only going to be a 50% chance that he'll be protected.

 

[kokirion]

I agree, except for the random factor. What's the point in doing that when the second doctor is hidden? If anything, it gives the mafia a chance to still target Malon because it's only going to be a 50% chance that he'll be protected.

Because if we would "decide" that 1 person is full-time protected, then the mafia knows that the protection is there and that some other plays cannot be protected.
With a 50% chance we raise the bar for them to target Malon, because it's very likely that targeting him might result in a failure. Yet, they don't know for sure that the protection is at Malon, so they won't have free play for any other target. At least not completely.

If we want to protect a doctor by a doctor, we basically give up a doctor's power to save the power of another doctor. A bit senseless if you think about it like that. With a 50% chance we only do it partially.
And by randomizing it, instead of leaving it to the decision of the doc (or at least by making the mafia assume it is randomized. I mean, in the end we cannot force the hidden doc), it won't turn in a wifom. It'll just be plain chance.

 

[Soul]

Because if we would "decide" that 1 person is full-time protected, then the mafia knows that the protection is there and that some other plays cannot be protected.
With a 50% chance we raise the bar for them to target Malon, because it's very likely that targeting him might result in a failure. Yet, they don't know for sure that the protection is at Malon, so they won't have free play for any other target. At least not completely.

If we want to protect a doctor by a doctor, we basically give up a doctor's power to save the power of another doctor. A bit senseless if you think about it like that. With a 50% chance we only do it partially.
And by randomizing it, instead of leaving it to the decision of the doc (or at least by making the mafia assume it is randomized. I mean, in the end we cannot force the hidden doc), it won't turn in a wifom. It'll just be plain chance.

With 20 players alive currently, the chance that the secret doctor will protect just the person the mafia targets is very low - on the other hand, the chance of successfully getting rid of the confirmed doctor rises to 50%. Your approach gives the mafia a chance to get rid of a doctor. This technique might be useful later in the game, but as it stands, there is absolutely no reason for the hidden doc to not save Malon on Night 1.

 

[Pen]

I say it is up to the individual Doctor. Personally I see upsides and downsides with both strategies.

 

[Soul]

I say it is up to the individual Doctor. Personally I see upsides and downsides with both strategies.

Could you elaborate?

 

[Pen]

Could you elaborate?

Well, the way I see it we cannot know for sure which strategy is the better one, since I think it all depends on who the Mafia is and how they play. Doing it the way Kirion suggests will certainly cover more ground. It would cause some Mafia members to wanna go after Malon, but other Mafia members would look elsewhere since it would be a batter chance there. Your suggestion, Soul, is guaranteed to keep Malon safe for the night (unless the Mafia has a Strongman of course), however, with this strategy, the Mafia is also much more likely to be able to go through with their night kill since they will most likely kill someone other than Malon (in other words someone who has a very low chance of being protected). So yeah, from what I can see it ultimately depends on the Mafia which plan is better, so we cannot know for sure. This is why I suggest that the Doctor decide how to do it since none of the tactics is necessarily bad.