- Joined
- May 30, 2023
I finally quit being lazy and broke down the voting progression yesterday. Nothing really screams Ex can't be town from it. It was a pendulum swing between KJ and Ex. DC's vote for Lain is literally the only vote cast the entire day that was outside of these two.
The things I took especial note of are that KJ quickly amassed three votes within an hour shortly after the 24 hour mark into day. This was started by Lain and quickly followed up by Ex and storm. Rag literally stopped catching up in order to speak out about this quick build. Us knowing KJ's alignment now is why this makes Rag look really really bad. Lain and Storm are the only two players to jump from KJ to Ex. Both did so shortly after Rag finished catching up and voted Ex herself, which was like 15 minutes after she felt the need to stop to address the KJ wagon. OG piled on a fourth the next morning and Min brought things back around to KJ, but was only the third vote at this point. Jamie brought it to a tie and Mint put KJ to the lead. Storm hammered shortly after.
Votes that could qualify as bussing in my opinion are Lain's original KJ vote and Minish's mid wagon, both because you could argue they were made at a time when the wagon going over isn't necessitated by their respective votes. Storm is never scum here. Ex and I don't make sense here in terms of sacrificing KJ's utility for a red checked Ex. Mint don't make sense bussing here with a basic free pass to vote red checked Ex.
Looking at the progression from an "Ex IS town Miller" standpoint, it's not impossible to see a mafia progression to save KJ. Rag makes a big scene. Scum!Lain or Scum!OG follow suit. Possibly Scum!DC is nadar voting before having to drop. Possibly Scum!Minish busses KJ after the Ex wagon retakes the lead. Rag green checking is the only detractor here, but scum!lain (presuming copying KJ is possible) or scum!DC/lissi could subvert the check as well as Rag just being godfather.
The thing that doesn't make sense looking at this progression and now knowing KJ's alignment is the notion that Ex is scum. As said before, Ex bussing KJ there is a horrible trade off with what we currently know. You can't say it was essential to appear self pres'ing because DC's Lain vote was present before Lain's KJ vote, giving Ex the opportunity to wagon there for self pres before KJ is even on the board. The much simpler solution is that Ex is miller as claimed. This puts him in a position of maybe needing to by lynched as a last resort before we hit Mylo/LyLo. We are not in last resort territory therefore Ex is not a priority lynch today.
The things I took especial note of are that KJ quickly amassed three votes within an hour shortly after the 24 hour mark into day. This was started by Lain and quickly followed up by Ex and storm. Rag literally stopped catching up in order to speak out about this quick build. Us knowing KJ's alignment now is why this makes Rag look really really bad. Lain and Storm are the only two players to jump from KJ to Ex. Both did so shortly after Rag finished catching up and voted Ex herself, which was like 15 minutes after she felt the need to stop to address the KJ wagon. OG piled on a fourth the next morning and Min brought things back around to KJ, but was only the third vote at this point. Jamie brought it to a tie and Mint put KJ to the lead. Storm hammered shortly after.
Votes that could qualify as bussing in my opinion are Lain's original KJ vote and Minish's mid wagon, both because you could argue they were made at a time when the wagon going over isn't necessitated by their respective votes. Storm is never scum here. Ex and I don't make sense here in terms of sacrificing KJ's utility for a red checked Ex. Mint don't make sense bussing here with a basic free pass to vote red checked Ex.
Looking at the progression from an "Ex IS town Miller" standpoint, it's not impossible to see a mafia progression to save KJ. Rag makes a big scene. Scum!Lain or Scum!OG follow suit. Possibly Scum!DC is nadar voting before having to drop. Possibly Scum!Minish busses KJ after the Ex wagon retakes the lead. Rag green checking is the only detractor here, but scum!lain (presuming copying KJ is possible) or scum!DC/lissi could subvert the check as well as Rag just being godfather.
The thing that doesn't make sense looking at this progression and now knowing KJ's alignment is the notion that Ex is scum. As said before, Ex bussing KJ there is a horrible trade off with what we currently know. You can't say it was essential to appear self pres'ing because DC's Lain vote was present before Lain's KJ vote, giving Ex the opportunity to wagon there for self pres before KJ is even on the board. The much simpler solution is that Ex is miller as claimed. This puts him in a position of maybe needing to by lynched as a last resort before we hit Mylo/LyLo. We are not in last resort territory therefore Ex is not a priority lynch today.