just ignore him, I don't think anyone is scumreading you and while we're in MyLo scum needs two misvotesOk so in all honesty.
In worlds where I'm town and Mikey is town, this game is effectively unwinnable for us. So I'm starting to believe that this vote today has to be between me and Mikey.
Ok so I'm cutting you the benefit of the doubt and just going to assume you're town for this comment.what teams can still exist from your pov
Kirino seems normal to me? I'm not sure if I follow the arguments against him, but I always have a hard time reading him and feel like maybe his votes were a bit too passive and safe so that might make him scummier than most games I played with him? I dislike his interaction with Rubik, which is what's pushing me into maybe being iffy of him, but if you present me a team that doesn't have both I'm not really sure what's they key argument here.So if you're town then what do you think about a Kirino/Johnny/Minish world?
And ok yeah I think I can agree that Minish/Kirino would be a weird world. Not counting it out fully but you bring up a good point.
I wasn't sure it would be okay, and didn't think to ask til later. Claim rules are strict in this game and even though it's not my role, I wasn't sure whether Bok would count it.I feel like if you're a townsperson with important info you want to reveal it asap.
I’m not too suspicious of Chevy for withdrawing his Johnny suspicion, since it strikes me as a genuine expression of insecurity or a lack of self-confidence given that he’s still relatively new to Mafia, and I think it fits with his previous play. I agree it’s a bit odd that he described it as a “joke,” though, because it clearly doesn’t seem to be. His later comment that he “came in too hot” seems more truthful.
As for his suspicion of Mikey, while I think he’s tunneling, I get being paranoid given JoJo Mafia and the sheer presence he tends to have in most games.
I mean I do it so often that it basically is at this point
Nah. There’s no harm in stating suspicions or jumping on details early on, even seemingly minor or irrelevant ones, because that’s how discussion gets started and the game gets moving. It can make you a target, though.
It did seem odd that Tristan essentially meta-read Moe while pretending not to do so, although I can easily buy that it was just a bit. It’s also not completely irrational for Chevy to suggest a Moe-Tristan scum team based on that, given that it was a town read; it’s not an opinion I share, but I can at least see where he’s coming from.
Chevy as a whole is definitely playing more boldly and erratically than usual, given how casually he’s been throwing out reads and suggestions. But I generally wouldn’t expect new scum to be so reckless and place so much unnecessary attention on themselves. If anything, I’d at least have expected him to be more cautious after receiving suspicion, especially since most scum would likely coach him to do just that. Instead of backing down, though, he’s maintained pretty much the same play. Some of his thoughts are dubious or questionable, but that’s not too unexpected given his level and how early it is, and I’ve felt similarly about some of his takes in previous games. It’d be different if his reads seemed forced or artificial to me, but I can usually at least see what he’s getting at. I’m also a fan of his interaction with Rag, since he seemed to genuinely question his approach but then appeared to take Rag’s words (which assumed he was town) to heart. Overall, he strikes me more as insecure town experimenting, rather than scum.
I agree with this to an extent, but I think general advice like “hey you should probably chill out a bit” would be very easy to give, and could reasonably be expected in a situation like this. I view Chevy as the kind of person who would be receptive to advice, too.
It's obvious that Ex voting Libk is largely in order to protect himself, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, since it makes sense for him to do so as town too. In general, Ex has been playing in a way that strikes me as fairly calm and reasoned, which I've come to associate with his scum meta, so I can't help but be slightly wary of him. I still think Libk is the better wagon because I'd rather lynch the complete inactive over the second highest poster, although I'm still holding out for other potential options until EoD.
I'm also liking SMS's play so far. I've always felt that his takes seem low-effort or contrived as scum, but his reads are fairly original and sensible here. He's somewhat less active than I might expect from many of his previous town games, but the past few games with him have taught me that meta reads based on activity are a lot less reliable in reading him than I previously thought they were.
Tristan's contributions so far have seemed mostly unremarkable to me. It's admittedly been a while since I played much with him, but I remember him having a game or two as town where he was very proactive and gave very in-depth, unprompted analyses of various players and game mechanics, to the point that I almost instantly (and correctly) town read him. I'm not seeing much of that here, which makes me slightly suspicious, although I can't say I remember his scum play.
Other people I'd like to get better reads on are Minish and Johnny, but I'm so far struggling to evaluate them with the content they have. I'd also like to see more (or anything) from @Pendio.
I remember a previous game in which Pen basically did the exact same thing as here (barely posted D1 and flippantly shrugged it off) and ended up being town. So I’m slightly town reading him for this I guess, even if I’m not really a fan of it.
I agree that Rag’s contributions have been fairly lackluster. Her latest post seems to provide a believable townie explanation for them, but I could also see the way she lost interest as reflecting scum. She’s also offering information that seems to work against her (basically confirming the validity of the meta that people are using to scum read her), but I feel that’s typical of her, and in any case, could easily be used to make oneself look more town. I haven’t played with Rag as much as others here, though, and I have a somewhat difficult time reading her. IIRC, my first game with her was the one in which she completely reversed her meta and surprised everyone, which probably colors my perception.
Regarding who to lynch, I actually wouldn’t mind following Chevy’s suggestion and voting Tristan, for previously stated reasons. Libk is still the main wagon I believe, and I think he’s still a viable option. I could see Rag as well, although I’m leaning towards the other two at the moment. In any case, I probably won’t be deciding or doing much until later today, after I get off work.
I don't think long read lists are always necessarily indicative of town, but they do make me feel better about Tristan, and I think his reads are pretty reasonable. I'd rather not lynch him at this point, especially with players who have contributed far less.
@Mafia Host @funnier6 Vote count?
I'm not particularly suspicious of either Libk or Rag right now, but I'd probably rather go for Libk because he's been almost completely inactive and has shown little inclination to fix that. While I see the point that he's an easy mislynch, he's being targeted more for inactivity rather than his actions, and his wagon hasn't been that widely supported. This vote will lead to a tie, but I'm fine with that, given that the rules mean my vote just won't count if it ends up that way.
It's not something I especially like either. I would generally assume that scum would avoid instantly jumping on the end of a bandwagon that already seemed sure to win out, and I'm not really sure why he would as scum. At the same time, I'm uncomfortable giving such blatantly anti-town behavior a pass just because of that, even if I'm still town reading him overall.
I'm increasingly skeptical of Rag being scum given how quickly her wagon took off near the end, but I think her flip (assuming she gets lynched) will at least give decent info.
There was a near tie between Rag and Libk, then the Rag wagon quickly came out ahead. Chevy instantly sheeped SMS and voted Rag with no real reasoning, and now people are suspecting him and might lynch him.
I don’t think Chevy is scum, and if he is, he’s an incredibly reckless and incompetent one, although I get the urge to policy lynch him after that. Libk has surprisingly come in clutch with his reads list, and even if I wanted to still vote for him, it’s clearly not happening. I think Rag is a bit questionable too, but I think she has the best chance of being scum between the three.
I’m somewhat uncertain about this, so I could see myself changing before the day ends. I’m not going to be able to be consistently around, though, so I should place my vote now.
Pretty heavily town reading Rubik right now.
I do think it's probable that there was scum on Rag's wagon, both because of how easily it piled up and given her experience. I also think that Chevy was a safe wagon for scum to move onto after he voted for Rag (even if I understand why people wanted to lynch him), and that it's worth scrutinizing the people who jumped to him as well.
Concerning Rag's wagon, I counted 7 different people on it: Rubik, Pen, Minish, mikey, SMS, Chevy, and myself. Of those, the last three are confirmed town (to me, anyway), the first I'm strongly town reading, and the second I'm slightly town reading. That leaves Minish and Mikey as the ones I'd like to focus on today, although I'm not quite letting Pendio off the hook.
Concerning those who switched to Chevy, they consist of Mikey, Johnny, and Libk. I'd like to look at both of the latter today, too.
Mikey falls under both categories. I'm having a hard time reading him as usual, but his consistency in pursuing Chevy makes his vote there unsurprising, and aggressively jumping on such an anti-town move seems fairly typical of him, so I'm not too bothered by it. His vote on Rag, by contrast, was sudden and unexplained until today, although that's admittedly not unusual for him either. In any case, I'll have to ISO him to get a better read.
I quite like how much Tristan is contributing and analyzing now, as it reminds me of the play that caused me to town read him in previous games. He only started doing it near the end of D1 and after being prodded on it, though, so I'm hesitant to give him too much town cred.
By contrast, I really dislike how @Mido fell completely under the radar. His first three posts were all on the same day and fairly decent, and his fourth (and last) post the next day said nothing substantive. His initial posts were just enough to make it look as if he was contributing to the point that most people largely ignored him, in contrast to other inactives such as Libk and Pendio, so I think he warrants more scrutiny today.
I'm also expecting @Pendio to actually contribute. There's likely a vig given Chevy's death, so depending on whether they pick things up, either him or Mido might make good targets.
This post is mostly just me throwing out my initial reads, since my thoughts on other players will require me to look more in-depth and ISO.
I’m don’t particularly like Libk’s vote on Chevy, looking back. Initially, he actually town read Chevy around the same time as his Rag vote, saying he liked the way he was playing. Once he saw Chevy’s vote, however, he updated his post to reverse this and instead voted for him. I think it had the least basis of the Chevy votes last EoD, as the other two had at least suspected/pressured him, whereas Libk reversed his read based on what I thought was a weak justification. At the start of today, moreover, Libk said he was “not too surprised” at Chevy flipping town, which makes his vote look even more dubious. The whole situation ends up seeming somewhat lazy and contrived on his part.
Otherwise, his suspicions against me and Johnny were largely based on OMGUS, which, to be fair, was also the case with his suspicion of Moe last game, where he was town. He also voiced slight suspicions on Mido and Pendio for inactivity, somewhat ironically.
I don’t think he did, and neither did most people. Besides, there’s no reason for scum to have killed Chevy when he was so likely to have been lynched the following day, not to mention his inexperience. This is an odd take, really.
It was essentially meta-based: I’ve seen a game where Pen did the exact same thing (i.e. completely ignore Day 1 and nonchalantly and unapologetically acknowledge it when pressed), and I think he’s more excited and active as scum in general. The read was always weak, though, and as I said, I think he’s still worth looking into for his Rag vote.
I think some interpreted it favorably for Rag because it showed her prodding, but my view was kind of the opposite: that it was negligible and didn’t really lead anywhere. As for Chevy, it made me town read him more, because he seemed genuinely uncertain and then reassured after what Rag told him.
Not quite. I said I could see why others would want to PL him, but not that I myself would want to, as I was pretty adamant in my belief that he was town. If I was trying to opportunistically lynch Rag, moreover, I probably would’ve done so earlier instead of going for Libk. And the only reason I removed my vote on Libk was because he started contributing with his read list, which took away the reason for my vote. That’s not something I could have planned either, unless Libk and I were scum together. Basically, my actions aren’t indicative of someone looking for an excuse to lynch Rag, which seems to be what you’re saying.
I don’t think I agree that scum would necessarily be more likely to avoid jumping on either wagon. Most of the playerbase was on one, so no individual would’ve received too much scrutiny simply for being among them. If anything, not being on them might made one more conspicuous. It’s certainly possible that at least one scum did, but I don’t know if that’s primarily what I’d focus on. Besides, I’m not sure why scum Ex would admit that he would’ve voted for Chevy the next day; as an after-the-fact excuse for inaction, probably. But then why not just vote Chevy the previous day, so as to make excuses unnecessary?
I do think it’s odd that Ex didn’t vote for Chevy, and if he really thought Chevy was the better wagon, he should’ve done so regardless of whether he thought it would catch up to Rag. But I feel inclined to accept his version of events simply because his actions seem dubious as scum. Besides which, the way Ex has been getting emotional/panicking in response to Min’s accusations reminds me moreso of his town play.
As for Tristan’s suspicion that Ex is sheeping him, I think I remember Ex voicing some of his reads, at least, before Tristan did, but I’d have to go back and check.
He’s not the only one, lol. For the record, this is why I think it’s possible that you and Tristan could still be scum together, despite going at each other. Not that I think it’s the case, but I wouldn’t dismiss it as Moe has.
I don't see much of a reason to doubt Tristan's alignment claim, especially since Johnny apparently corroborated it. I suppose they could both be scum, but it'd be a really questionable play for them, to say the least. As for Tristan, I'm not convinced he isn't a killing role, and he obviously wouldn't tell us if he was. I think there's likely to be a vig (or some town-aligned killing role, at least), but it's not necessarily a certainty. Whether we kill Tristan or try to find scum today depends largely on 1. our estimation of which roles there are and who they'll target and 2. how confident we are in our ability to get scum today.
If I'm understanding Legacy's post correctly, there's no real chance of us losing today if we lynch Tristan. There is a chance of us losing, however, if we leave Tristan alive, although it would require mislynching and the vig failing to hit scum, too. So it seems like the safer choice is simply to lynch Tristan today: not only would it remove the uncertainty of his role, but it would give us more time to potentially find scum the following day, with the vig possibly hitting one in the night as well.
I'd rather not place a vote now because we still have time, and I want to think through this and avoid pushing a wagon beforehand. But it seems to me like our best option is simply killing Tristan now, especially with the absence of strong scum reads from most people, including me.
I don't necessarily hate a Libk lynch, but I'd rather not risk throwing the game today, especially with wagons shallow enough that scum can manipulate the result. If we lynch Tristan, then not only will we have the whole day tomorrow to discuss and find scum, but we can more comfortably allow a vig to try to hit scum tonight.
I think there's definitely some sort of role capable of sending messages, given that Rubik received one, and I'm highly confident that he's town. It's also likely to be a scum role (or at least is being used that way), given that the message turned out to be false and likely intended to frame Sun; it's also possible that Sun could either have a miller-like aspect to him or that he was framed, but I think these are both less likely. For this reason, I think it's also very likely that Sun wasn't the mafia kill, as scum would have no reason to frame someone and then kill them.
If I'm understanding Legacy correctly (and I'll be careful here to avoid upsetting the mod), then him being town necessarily means there's some sabotaging role, unless he's somehow completely mistaken. It's interesting, though, that Legacy is confident that Tristan is third party and doesn't want to lynch him, which must mean he's sure that the message Johnny claimed to receive is true, unlike the one received by Rubik about Sun being scum. So if Legacy is town, then Tristan would almost certainly be third party. If Legacy is scum, of course, then that almost certainly means that Tristan is scum, and vice versa.
I'll post more and likely come up with a PoE soon, but I at wanted to get some basic thoughts down now that I'm finally free after like 10 pages of absence.
I don’t think I waited until the last minute, since I specifically stated my preference for lynching Tristan hours before EoD. Even when I made my vote, I did so over 15 minutes before EoD, which was still plenty of time for someone to weigh in if they were around; it’s hardly as if I was trying to sneak it in.
Besides that, I’m not sure why I’d necessarily prefer lynching third party over town here if I were scum, given that doing the latter is what put us in MYLO. This is especially because you yourself, immediately after suggesting that, give at least one reason that I wouldn’t want to. Instead of recognizing that this runs counter to your reasoning, you try to reconcile them by saying that I probably still would’ve wanted to lynch Tristan, but probably just not too badly, which is really dubious speculation. You also suggest that I didn’t push too strongly to avoid suspicion, but a third party is a fairly safe wagon to push, so I don’t think I’d have much of a reason to worry about that. Moreover, the point that scum would want to kill third party should apply to all who voted for Tristan, not just me.
I also can’t help but find it notable that you’ve largely avoided giving a clear read on me this game. That is, until MYLO, when you suddenly find me suspicious based on something highly speculative. Likewise with Legacy deciding to scum read me soon after. I’m sure I’ll be accused of OMGUS, but I think it’s easy to understand why I might view with suspicion a sudden bandwagon potentially forming on me during MYLO. I'm not sure that both of you are scum, but I'm confident that at least one of you are, based both on this and PoE. Further case in point:
It's not even 1/3 of the day through and you (and Legacy, who liked your post) are already trying to rush a lynch on me. Nothing either of you have posted could possible give you the unreasonable confidence you have in me being scum.
The remaining players are Rubik, Tristan, Ex, Johnny, Minish, Kirino, Legend, Mikey. IIRC, you're vouching for Tristan, Rubik, and Johnny. Plus you and myself, that'd leave three: Ex, Minish, and Mikey. Unless I'm missing something, since I admittedly skimmed some of your posts, just because there's so many of them. I figure that's a possible team from my PoE as well, assuming you're town, even if I'm increasingly doubting that.
I assure you that I'm town this game and if you don't believe me you're either scum or haven't been paying attention to the last handful of times scum lynched me in lylo when I was town.Kirino seems normal to me? I'm not sure if I follow the arguments against him, but I always have a hard time reading him and feel like maybe his votes were a bit too passive and safe so that might make him scummier than most games I played with him? I dislike his interaction with Rubik, which is what's pushing me into maybe being iffy of him, but if you present me a team that doesn't have both I'm not really sure what's they key argument here.
Johnny seems kinda lost. I feel like he's missing a few key points in the discussion and misinterpreting others, so paranoia keeps telling me it's an act, but I'd rather just leave it as benefit of the doubt for now.
Minish is famous for bussing as scum, but I'm not really sure why she would bus Kirino here as scum instead of pushing for someone. Although I guess she did push for Tristan despite believing him to be 3p a bit weird since it was already pointed out that we lose if he gets lynched here and is in fact 3p.
Overall I think it's unlikely, I don't really see Minish pushing Kirino like this if they're both scum and I'm just really null on Johnny. I'm pretty confident Rubik has to be one of them so if I were to tweak this team a bit I'd maybe do Kirino/Rubik/Johnny? I don't really see many other options, maybe Moe instead of Kirino or Johnny? Minish/Rubik/Moe? Minish/Rubik/Johnny?
You and I are cleared. Tristan shouldn't be the same team as Rubik here, and Minish shouldn't be the same team as Kirino.