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If you want to see some actual data, I would ask Ellibereth (he runs the Mafia451 Academy).

Essentially what Fig said, but yeah when people are attempting to accurately track their reads with the method the use at the Mafia451 Academy, they have to give all living players a score between 0 and 100 (as percent chance they're town) every game day, and then at the end of the game when...

Mafia451 has a "Mafia Academy" where people train to be better at reading. They use the Briar Score to keep track of their reads: https://forum.mafia451.com/t/how-to-measure-your-read-accuracy/4836 I know quite a few people who do this, and some of their scores are pretty impressive. Granted, I...

Now that this game is done, if anyone is fixin' for another game, on my home site we need only two more people to start a new game: https://www.mafiacafe.net/forum/standard-games/general-info/38784-gray-nite-s-school-of-rock-mafia-signups Me and Fext are signed up, so if anyone joins, you'll...

Good game all! I think scum had a nearly insurmountable uphill battle after N1, but I appreciate that they fought hard the whole time, and didn't make it easy. Good job town for finishing the game, and figuring out that my sensor info was incorrect. I was very worried that would lead town to...

I recommend our power roles focus on trying to confirm people who were on Chevy's wagon D1 since anyone in {Rag, Ex, Deku} will be solved soon enough just with flips.

Can your role confirm PK though? Ex tracking you can't confirm Ex, but if you can confirm PK, that would be a good thing to do. In particular, if the target of your action is able to tell they were targeted by your role, then your role can probably confirm PK as sleepwalker.

Ex is in a box, and thus will be resolved shortly regardless. If they can confirm themselves, great. If not, then we'll know soon enough. PK is one of the top suspects for the remaining wolf, and is definitely good to confirm or expose. Idk what your role is though, so I'd have to trust your...

You said earlier you were targeting the sleepwalker...

The situation I'm concerned with is if Minish dies tonight, so Rolecop is gone. Also, I only have 1 lie detector shot and it gives false reads on anyone investigation immune.

A cop shot doesn't do anything to confirm you. Tracker or watcher shot clears aren't guaranteed and not impossible to fake. If Minish dies tonight though, you won't be clear tomorrow, but could be in a 50/50. How would you suggest we proceed if we are in a 50/50 between you and Rag tomorrow?

What is your plan if Minish dies?

Why are you so eager to hammer?

Either way it is a waste of a TK voting someone about to be modkilled. If you truly think that Rag and Ex are town, then a better alternative would be to vote the most suspicious person outside of {Deku, Viral, Rag, Ex} so that the TK actually has some use to it. However, since we have a...

We'll have to see what the setup is fully at the end of the game, but right now it seems likely that the setup is balanced, but swingy. For example, the lightning rod absorber is a very swingy role. It has a chance of incredibly benefiting town (like we've seen), but it also has a chance of...

This isn't ToS. Just look at Pen's other games. The ones with 4 mafia have 18-20 players. a 14er with 4 mafia is pretty much unheard of on all of the forum mafia sites I play on or follow. Sure, theoretically it could happen if a host decides to do that and the forum lets them, but it is an...

4 mafia is a 14er would be extremely weird and unconventional. Even with all the power we've seen in this game, a ratio that close to 2:1 is all-but-unheard of.

I could be wrong, but mafia probably doesn't have a watcher shot. I looked through a lot of the mafia roles on D1, and didn't see anything like that, but I could have missed something since I wasn't looking specifically for that.

wait, wtf? didn't you just look at the two roles? Protect is the only overlap. How would that distinguish between the two?

I think watching Minish might be a better idea. This will help us in the case of a strongarm kill on Minish, unless it happens to be a strongarm ninja kill. Fig has protectives as well, so a non-strongarm shot on Minish is extremely dubious for scum.

I claimed that I used the sensor ability.

Eh, good point. I suppose I could lie detect that if I want to check them.

Hey, are you town?

Neither Viral or Deku have posted today, which means they might be modkilled. It'd be a waste of a TK to flip them. If we decide not to elim in {Rag, Ex}, I'd rather vote someone like PK over that, unless one of them comes back and satisfies the posting requirements. Your plan is reasonable...

EBWOP

Even if the trap role can be faked, how can it be tested?

Do you have any way of confirming yourself given Minish's absorb ability? We are almost at the point where we can go into auto as long as Minish survives the night. Clearing you would be helpful in that regard.

I thought day was ending today and just realize it isn't ending until tomorrow. Oh well...

That's fair. I didn't mean for the question to be accusative, simply inquisitive.

I think at least one of your targets tonight should be Minish.

I see and acknowledge your stance, but disagree that it is best. Eliming someone who is going to be modkilled is a waste of a TK. The TK is the single most efficient tool that town has at their disposal, so it is bad to waste. Plus, if we wagon Viral, the thread will just go into meh mode, and...

Why didn't you use your ability?

It is a reasonably nuanced read, but also reeks of PT hunting, which is scummy. Either way, for today it is a bit of a moot point IMO. Deku and Viral are both in "possible modkill" territory, so Im more concerned with Ex or Rag. At this point, Ex has a chance of confirming themselves if they're...

Unvote. Vote: Ragnarokio

Still wanting on @Ragnarokio and @Viral Maze to claim.

The thing you seem to be missing and that I'm trying to get clarification on is that Minish was hit TWICE by Fig's ability, so if getting hit ONCE would give a single 50% (as you suggest is possible), getting hit twice might give 2 shots of singleshot 50%. From Minish's most recent response, it...

The thing that is not clear is how absorber works with an ability that has multiple targets. If the absorber was hit by a single shot of Fig's ability, they could be given 1-shot of a singleshot of 50% chance protect. It sounds like Minish said they were given 2 shots of singleshot 50% chance...

@Ragnarokio @Viral Maze You both should claim.

Sorry to keep asking basic questions, but I just want to be sure. You cannot use those two shots on the same night, correct? If the answer to that question is "yes", then I would say that beyond a reasonable doubt either Ex is lying or scum does not have a roleblocker. This implies that scum...

Do you have 2 shots of Fig's heal or one doubleshot?

The Fish Chef really has every incentive to townside here, so I trust they'll feed Minish. Depends on who you track/watch and whom they visit/visits them. There are a lot of things you could make up that would not confirm you or expose you. Personally, I'd prefer you to use a shot on Minish so...

Ugh, I can't tell if I'm tunneling Ex or if they're just clearly scum. Them being like "I'm thinking about vigging Sean to confirm him" (which is a plan that could be faked by mafia by just using the mafia NK on me), then me giving a plan that would confirm me and Ex both, then Ex saying that...

Sure, but it is a better alternative to your suggestion of vigging me to confirm me.

I severely doubt godfather is immune to tracker/watcher. There is a whole role dedicated to being undetectable, and Pen has had godfather and ninja on the same team before, so it wouldn't really make sense.

The ninja from Sherlock Mafia had 2 shots of strongarm, so I supposed it is even lower. I'd check their claim. It would confirm me and further confirm them.

Hmm... Fig -> double-protect Minish Ex -> watch Minish Seanzie -> check Minish. this would be a reasonable set of night actions if there wasn't a possible strongarm ninja at play... What are the chances there is a strongarm ninja that didn't use one of their strongarm shots last night?

Since my role still has high utility, vigging me would be a very bad idea. I think you should focus on confirming yourself IMO.

Well, I don't clear anyone since there is 1 on Chevy's wagon, but it does give us a small box jam packed with scum in it.

While it is true that wolves tend to do more editing mistakes than town because they tend to overanalyze their own posts, I don't think this is nearly as much of a smoking gun as you do. Your posting style is very very free-flowing, but many people don't post like that (regardless of...

Sensor bypasses investigation immunity, so godfather on Chevy's wagon would be counted.