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the idea is interesting though, i'll probably start posting weighted readslists at the start of every day

and if you know anyone who is tracking their data with anywhere in the vicinity of that much rigor and also believes their result is significantly above what would emerge from randomness i'd be interested in looking at their stats and reading over their games

Yeah if you do it every day every game then that would eliminate most selection bias. Variances within days would create some potential bias but the data would still be really interesting. Unless the player played a lot of vanilla You'd easily get statistically significant results because there...

i'm more interested in what the samples are like. Scoring an individual readslist is easy (although i would probably have used a different method) but it won't be outside the range of realistic random variation on its own. There are two big obvious concern with measuring a mafia players reads...

I'd be interested in seeing evidence of this if you know where it might not be too difficult to find. I have seen people with significantly positive records in the discord variant where its three players and a single day where a town dayvig needs to shoot scum or lose although I don't really...

depends on whether or not town is satisfied with a draw. If confronted with this angle i would probably try to make an appeal to emotion post about how aiming to win is more satisfying than avoiding losing and that PK has the highest probability of being scum. Not sure if it would have worked...

there's a lot more to the game than reading and i tend to think most good reads are coincidences anyways. The human mind is too chaotic to ascribe a lot of meaning to and there's a lot of flexibility. Even IRL, studies have mostly indicated that humans aren't capable of telling when someone is...

thanks. Its probably not as impressive as you think it is and a lot of it comes down to differences between forum mafia and chat mafia. Its a lot easier to commit to a complex bluff when you're allowed to think about future strategies and how your post will be received for hours and don't have...

you were the one person who reasonably should have voted me, since i was probably the strongest lynch behind you. I still think as town it would have been better to discuss things first but its hard to argue with results. If you had and it just resulted in me talking people into lynching you...

come final day after a PK lynch it basically has to be the case that either seanzie was lying, minish was lying, or pen made an error. If either of the townies were lying it was obviously the case that they misread something or misspoke rather than that they intended to deceive the town, but...

you might have been hard to convince but i think KJ and kirino would have followed my logic and agreed with it, and it only takes 3 to lynch. I imagine KJ and Kirino even now might admit that considering the circumstances PK was the better lynch. To believe that I'm scum you need to believe that...

gj town i'm biased but i do think PK was the best lynch objectively today. Tomorrow it probably would've been me though. I'm still not entirely sure why seanzie's sensor picked up 1 scum on the chevie wagon (either i missed a miller in the game or it counted storm as mafia for some reason)...

its alright, it was a logical blunder but it was one a lot of players apparently walked into. Its true that my role was the only role that wasn't confirmed, but that doesn't matter when my alignment is confirmed. Speedlynches generally help mafia so its always good to talk things out in the...

also there will probably be a no-hit tonight so don't take a player not dying as evidence of fig's targets' innocence.

Everybody here should logically be confirmed town. PK - Fext targeted him with an investigative role and PK got a result back, so PK should be town. KJ - claimed motivator and then minish confirmed that a motivator existed, as there was no cc KJ has to be the motivator. Fig - same as KJ but...

hope everything is well with you pen ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ TAKE MY ENERGY ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つ

pen is stalling so much i'm starting to think he's scum with kirino

thats not what alit claimed. they claimed the aiblity to redirect every ability to a target of their choice.

Vote: Alit

alit should also claim who they lightning rodded last night. Fext is a very strange choice.

If I'm not mistaken, the sensor detected that there was one mafioso voting for chevy and determined there were 2 by elimination off the chevy wagon, which was true. Whether or not the sensor could detect godfather (i imagine it could since its not targeted) the final mafioso should be someone...

i'd say lightning rod PK today but there's not really enough time to coordinate things and i don't want to throw out a poorly thought out plan so everyone should probably just think about what the best way to use their abilities is during the night

ex is scum and self-hammered to end day early

in case this happens i just want to say oof

people make bad plays sometimes and if it was someone like storm i wouldn't think it was as AI but i expect ex to be capable of thinking through their actions better than he's demonstrated he has.

yeah SKs on this site are weird

honestly this is probably a pretty big slip. Ex is operating under the assumption that minish died to fish chef when from his perspective that should be impossible.

What does the fish chef role have to do with anything? From your perspective minish was night-killed.

The main reason i think its reasonable to scumread ex is because shooting seanzie is a hard decision to swallow. He could have confirmed himself by targeting min, and also would have saved her if he protected her (as well as given her a full doc shot). His reasoning for killing seanzie is...

I think it might've been gravity hills mafia but i'm not sure.

why are you townreading ex?

you can use it to target unconfirmed players to stop the mafia from NKing confirmed ones

are there any jesters or lynch-bombs in pen's games?

???????????????????

its probably a bad habit of mine to be too detached while evaluating the game. In any case it seems like ex has more or less dug his own grave today and I don't expect it to end with anyone but him being lynched. There's no point in rushing though. Why wouldn't kirino use this on day one if it...

minish is a risky kill as mafia but if mafia is in a bad situation they need to make risky kills to win. I don't think that at least is a good reason to sus ex.

minish is a ri iirc kirino claimed a confirmable role but i can't remember what it was. fext and PK seem to be claiming to clear each other? i know PK claimed sleepwalker but i don't think fext claimed.

someone who is less lazy than me should compile a list of roleclaims because i keep getting lost

I don't think its a meritless or inconceivable play but its certainly not the one i would have expected ex to take as town. There are a lot of other plays that are a lot more likely to strongly benefit town.

there was very little chance of seanzie being scum as of the viral flip, and probably even before then. It would've been a very strange gambit to make. It definitely could have waited to be verified. There are a lot of more prudent plays you could have made. in what world does killing me make...

either ex or the third mafioso is the roleblocker in this case.

ex killing seanzie is very strange considering viral flipped scum. (thus meaning seanzie was probably truthful in his claims). Ex also had the opportunity to confirm himself by targeting minish with anything, or confirm me by shooting me.

i forgot about this tbh i guess there doesn't need to be a vig that also means ex isn't confirmed

because someone needs to be responsible for today's extra kill

day is like less than an hour in a vig still has time to claim

putting aside the fact that ex is scum, I normally wouldn't find a "pronoun slip" like that telling. People use the word "they're" as town to refer to other people sometimes. The fact that ex immediately corrected himself is comparatively more scummy because it seems to suggest that he...

we also have an extra death today, and only ex has stepped forward to claim it. As far as i understand ex is guaranteed scum from my perspective so whoever is actually responsible for the shot should eventually step forward. Holding off on a lynch until that happens as least is good.

me and ex will resolve outselves in one day or two so which one of us is lynched today doesn't matter too much, although its obviously better to hit mafia there. Figuring out who can still be confirmed via night actions and starting to read the remaining players is probably a good use of time

also i've only skimmed the thread so idrk what is happening

if anyone cares me being at L-1 is probably bad. We should use the time we have today for discussion and the day ending early is bad.