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A Certain Magical Round of Mafia

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Xinnamin

Mrs. Austin
Joined
Dec 6, 2009
Location
clustercereal
Two roleblockers dead in one night. What a coincidence lol
So we have one mafia member down. Not sure how much that'll tell us since Erebea posts mostly really short and non-serious responses. I'm curious now if there's both an SK and Vig in this game, because if there is, someone's kill didn't go through.

It's interesting that Kaz was targeted (I'd assume mafia target, could be SK/Vig if mafia was the one who's kill failed). Kaz posted only 3 times: to FOS David, to joke vote Josh, and to vote Thareous. I don't think the last two posts mean much for scum-hunting, but that first FOS against David, David reacted kinda hypocritically, saying don't take first post seriously when his first post was basically taking my first posts seriously. I didn't think much of that reaction at first, but I'm going to keep an eye on David now that Kaz is dead.
 

David

But you called me here...
Joined
Aug 6, 2010
Two roleblockers dead in one night. What a coincidence lol
So we have one mafia member down. Not sure how much that'll tell us since Erebea posts mostly really short and non-serious responses. I'm curious now if there's both an SK and Vig in this game, because if there is, someone's kill didn't go through.

It's interesting that Kaz was targeted (I'd assume mafia target, could be SK/Vig if mafia was the one who's kill failed). Kaz posted only 3 times: to FOS David, to joke vote Josh, and to vote Thareous. I don't think the last two posts mean much for scum-hunting, but that first FOS against David, David reacted kinda hypocritically, saying don't take first post seriously when his first post was basically taking my first posts seriously. I didn't think much of that reaction at first, but I'm going to keep an eye on David now that Kaz is dead.

I think it would be quite a good idea to keep your eye on me, like me on you or anyone else. Mafia is a game of deception, and unless we have certainty, it is wise to keep an eye on everyone. Odds are that I have a chance at being Mafia, though I assure you that I am not.

Also 2 Dead in one night and both were role blockers. Since they both died, I would assume that only one, if any at all, of the role block went through. That leaves us with 2 or 3 killing parties, unless there are other roles at play blocking any other killers, like a doctor (which I think we probably have). We obviously have the Mafia, which I would most likely put to be behind Kazumi's death. As for Erebea's death, seeing as how he was Mafia, there's a good chance that we have a Vigilante or some form of third party. I'm guessing that its a 3rd party, since its become quite the trend to stick one of those in each game. However, with the chance that one of the blocks went through and with the possibility of a doctor or other healing role, there could probably be a vigilante and/or other killers as well. All speculation, but that's what I gather with the information that we have.

Also, do we have any leads from our town cop? I'm assuming that we have one since well this is a mafia game and there is almost always a cop of some form in the game. Wait. Don't tell us who you are. Giving yourself away this early would actually be bad for you and us, especially if you don't have information for us. :/
 

Kybyrian

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Amherst, MA
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Didn't I already answer this one?
Austin said:
We went back to the center of town to share our news, and a few minutes after we got there the other group returned as well. After they told us their story, Sensei became very glad that she wasn't chosen to go with that group! Apparently, they found the splattered remains of the man who referred to himself as Erebea. They had quite a difficult time identifying him because of the way his mangled corpse ended up. They said it was as if all his bodily fluids were reversed and sped up causing him to explode! They managed to find intact pieces of his clothing, however, enough to identify him as Terra of the Left, a Mafia roleblocker!

It's hard for me to say SK or vig on this one, but I'm kind of leaning towards vig. Touma beat the **** out of him though so idk. Point is, this character is obv. a killer and his name is Accelerator. Seems obvious enough.
 
Joined
Nov 26, 2008
Two roleblockers dead in one night. What a coincidence lol
So we have one mafia member down. Not sure how much that'll tell us since Erebea posts mostly really short and non-serious responses. I'm curious now if there's both an SK and Vig in this game, because if there is, someone's kill didn't go through.
Ya I was just thinking that, lol.

Speaking statistically, it's not terribly likely that someone got roleblocked this early in the game, when practically all the players are alive. There are basically three likely scenarios in my eyes:

  • The two roleblockers figured out who would be targeted through deduction.
  • A roleblocker and third killer both targeted an obvious player, like a major power player. This has happened before.
  • There are only two nightkilling roles.

Having played with Kazumi before but not Erebea... I can't necessarily confirm the likelihood of the first two. Kazumi did once target me and figure out that I was nightkill immune... but I had been Doctor-protected that same night in addition to my nightkill immunity. That one situation I know of is a bit complicated for me to make a call based on it, and I haven't played with Kazumi enough to base it on much else. Same with Erebea, who I've never played with. They both have potential to be good roleblockers but I don't know for sure if they would be or not.

I think that there only being two killing roles is the most likely, although I might just be saying that because it's the least convoluted. I don't know. We'll probably see during Night 2, for sure, since the Roleblockers are now dead.


I'm guessing that its a 3rd party, since its become quite the trend to stick one of those in each game.
I don't agree with you at all. Yeah we've put a third party in every game because it's fun, but there's also been a vigilante in each of them as well. Vigilante is a more basic role. If there's only two, I'm certain it's not a third party.


Also, do we have any leads from our town cop? I'm assuming that we have one since well this is a mafia game and there is almost always a cop of some form in the game. Wait. Don't tell us who you are. Giving yourself away this early would actually be bad for you and us, especially if you don't have information for us. :/
wtf David
 
Joined
Dec 12, 2010
The other possibility is that the Vigilante refrained from using their NK ability. Most of the Vigilantes I've played with are fairly trigger happy (which makes sense because it's a cool power to have and means you don't need to bandwagon your suspicions). I can't see any logic in a SK not using their nightkill, unless they forgot to send in their PM in time, but I find this unlikely due to the long night period and the fact this game's been pretty active so if there is an SK I reckon he'll be on the ball. To be honest with you I think the most likely option is that there are only two Nightkillers, but it's uncertain at this point.

That's all I can glean from the Night's activities, so I'm going to go and find someone to vote for based on yesterday's voting. There's undoubtedly a few scum among the 8 who nailed Thareous.
 

Djinn

and Tonic
Joined
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I'm not completely sure what to think of the night yet. I'm used to their being a NK from the mafia and there being both a SK and Vig in the game. However there are less people in this game so threre might be a couple missing from the usual cast. But both RB types going out in the same night is just a little odd.


Also, do we have any leads from our town cop? I'm assuming that we have one since well this is a mafia game and there is almost always a cop of some form in the game. Wait. Don't tell us who you are. Giving yourself away this early would actually be bad for you and us, especially if you don't have information for us. :/

I would not expect any cop to come out with any information at all this early in the game. Seems way too crazy to give away a role on day 2 like that. And I cannot figure out just how someone is supposed to give information without at least somewhat revealing that they are some special kind of role in the game. Might you be fishing for roles?
 
Joined
Dec 12, 2010
So two posts in particular caught my eye. The leads aren't amazing to be honest with you, but worth flagging up.

Majora's Cat said:
Everyone seems to have a legitimate reason for voting Thareous, so I will as well.

Vote: Thareous

eeeh, might as well. Vote: Thareous

EBWODP: wait, is it night? Crap. Oh mod please don't hurt me I'm a screw-up >.<

Now with this we come to a classic Wine In Front of Me dilemma. I haven't seen either of these players before, so I don't know anything about their meta, or how long they've played. Until someone corrects me on this I'm going to go with the logic that they are new to the game. A smart mafia player would probably never risk something like this, because it looks suspicious as hell (although Majora's Cat less so). If we saw this behaviour from an experienced Mafia player we'd lynch them soon as possible. From noobs it's harder to say. So I'm gonna go with a bit of instinct on this.

Vote: Madame Majora

I'm not completely sure what to think of the night yet. I'm used to their being a NK from the mafia and there being both a SK and Vig in the game. However there are less people in this game so threre might be a couple missing from the usual cast. But both RB types going out in the same night is just a little odd.

Pure fluke, imo. I don't see how anyone would have the knowledge, ability or inclination to engineer something like this. The way you say it's "just a little odd" sounds like you are trying to cast aspersions, and given how logically this can't be anything but a coincidence, I find that suspect.

I would not expect any cop to come out with any information at all this early in the game. Seems way too crazy to give away a role on day 2 like that. And I cannot figure out just how someone is supposed to give information without at least somewhat revealing that they are some special kind of role in the game. Might you be fishing for roles?

Especially with roleblocker dead. If the doctor is alive (and if I had to guess I'd suspect a doctor was present in this game) the cop could legitimately claim, but unless they have hit scum in a search it isn't worth it. Also worth pointing out to cop that they don't know what flavour they are yet, so their results may not be accurate.
 
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David

But you called me here...
Joined
Aug 6, 2010
I would not expect any cop to come out with any information at all this early in the game. Seems way too crazy to give away a role on day 2 like that. And I cannot figure out just how someone is supposed to give information without at least somewhat revealing that they are some special kind of role in the game. Might you be fishing for roles?

Especially with roleblocker dead. If the doctor is alive (and if I had to guess I'd suspect a doctor was present in this game) the cop could legitimately claim, but unless they have hit scum in a search it isn't worth it. Also worth pointing out to cop that they don't know what flavour they are yet, so their results may not be accurate.

It was an odd impulse, at first. "Lets get the cop in here and see what he knows! Maybe he can help!" Then I decided not to and to give some general advice for him to not reveal his role, unless of course, he's actually hit scum, like Jimmy said above, which is why I left the entirety of that comment in there. If the cop hit scum, then he sure can reveal his role and tell us what he knows.

Axle, I was mostly speaking from experience with the 3rd party comment I made. When there's a 3rd party role, they almost always use their ability every night, as it brings them closer to victory. And quite often, its the same case with Vigilantes. Usually, when they have the power, they do it. Unless they're a really good and experienced Vig player, then they might not use their power on the first night if they finds no one suspicious. I didn't make it clear that there were several factors in my thinking with that comment, and I apologize. I just did some deductive reasoning. (Scenario: 3rd party in game. Based on past games, they use their powers first night so that they can get closer to winning. Probably a SK that killed Erebea; stronger player, more of a threat to them.) Also, seeing as how we can probably assume that there is a doctor, we can make an assumption that he might have saved someone last night. IF the doctor saved someone or if one of the roleblock actions was on a killer, then there could and would be another killer. However, the likelihood of either of those events happening is debatable. If there is not another killing role, I would say that it was a vigilante that killed Erebea. Also, my playing experience is different from yours, so you may have had other experiences than me to lead you to other conclusions. These are just things that I have personally seen in other games.

Also, referring to the hunting that Jimmy has done with Majora's Cat and MadameMajora, I found them suspicious as well. I've noticed that scum bandwagon the town with the reasoning that others are doing it, or with no reason at all. The "eeeh, might as well." in MadameMajora's post really caught my attention, and I made a personal note to watch what other behaviors she exhibits as we progress throughout the game. Right now, MadameMajora sticks out more to me than Majora's Cat, but I haven't done enough personal digging to find out if that is really the case. As it stands, my suspicions lie on those two.
 
Joined
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Now with this we come to a classic Wine In Front of Me dilemma. I haven't seen either of these players before, so I don't know anything about their meta, or how long they've played. Until someone corrects me on this I'm going to go with the logic that they are new to the game. A smart mafia player would probably never risk something like this, because it looks suspicious as hell (although Majora's Cat less so). If we saw this behaviour from an experienced Mafia player we'd lynch them soon as possible. From noobs it's harder to say. So I'm gonna go with a bit of instinct on this.

Vote: Madame Majora
I've said this in past Mafia games, but I don't think jumping on a bandwagon is always scummy. In games I've played on other boards, it's a totally legitimate tactic to keep the game moving, and usually represents someone finishing up a lynch that seems pretty certain anyway without waiting for the day to end. Either way, your suspicion shouldn't purely be on these two since I was basically inviting people to do this a few posts prior.



Anyway, I think I'm going to...

Vote: Josh

Think I'm starting to agree with Nicole. Actually, during the Night I was thinking that both him and Erebea were behaving a little awkwardly, in the sense that both of them were making non-contributory posts for the entirety of the Day but still voting (though that's more on Erebea than Josh). I was planning to vote for Erebea again this Day, but now that he's dead I'm going to move that to Josh.

As always, I maintain that targeting inactives over strange actives is more likely to turn up Mafia. Josh and Erebea have both kinda... lurked.

EBWODP: Forgot to include this... @Jimmy: Regardless, I do realize you said they aren't amazing leads, so I realize you're not suggesting it's super scummy. Just dropping my 2 cents.
 

David

But you called me here...
Joined
Aug 6, 2010
I've said this in past Mafia games, but I don't think jumping on a bandwagon is always scummy. In games I've played on other boards, it's a totally legitimate tactic to keep the game moving, and usually represents someone finishing up a lynch that seems pretty certain anyway without waiting for the day to end. Either way, your suspicion shouldn't purely be on these two since I was basically inviting people to do this a few posts prior.

I don't think that all bandwagon jumping is scummy. However the way that Majora's Cat and MadameMajora went about the bandwagon was suspicious. Especially the "ehhh... why not?" thing from MadameMajora. Like I said, that little bit is what jumped out of me. Seemed like she gave little to no thought about the bandwagon at all. I agree that its not an awesome lead, but its still suspicious to me. I will be watching what they say next.
 
Joined
Nov 26, 2008
I don't think that all bandwagon jumping is scummy. However the way that Majora's Cat and MadameMajora went about the bandwagon was suspicious. Especially the "ehhh... why not?" thing from MadameMajora. Like I said, that little bit is what jumped out of me. Seemed like she gave little to no thought about the bandwagon at all. I agree that its not an awesome lead, but its still suspicious to me. I will be watching what they say next.
I don't see how that's especially suspicious given what I said beforehand...

Soooo... it's been hours, and nothing's happened. Doesn't seem like anyone intends to reverse the bandwagon on Thareous, so can we get two more votes in here for a majority lynch or something? Or I guess Austin will just end it today since it's the deadline...

...because, as I said, jumping on a bandwagon just to get things moving can be a legitimate move. Even as a Townie, I've jumped on bandwagons I blatantly disagreed with just because I knew there was nothing I could do to stop it and I wanted to get things moving past it. But whatever. I can at least agree that bandwagon jumping is more suspicious than other actions, but I think the inactives are better targets. Even if it's only Day 2, people can still be hiding out, and usually the lurkers are pretty consistent throughout the game - especially the scum ones.
 
Joined
Dec 12, 2010
Unvote: Josh
Vote: Nicole


Definitely scum. Trying to use my trollish attitude to try and kill me off since she knows I'm not scum and there's no better way to kill me off.

Oh, and by the way, I've been serious about this thread since the moment I opened it. Not my fault if you don't realize it.

Since Axle voted for him I thought it was worth giving Josh's post a quick look through. After the whole voting for himself thing he was pretty quiet, although he defended himself at one point saying that people didn't know his motivations for doing things.

I've seen a lot of people taking the attitude that if someone is voting for them that person must be scum. The flaws in that theory are pretty self evident given the nature of the game, but Josh's vote has stated his position on that. From what I've seen of Nicole she's been playing fairly smart. I've disagreed with a few things she's said but I can't say she's been that scummy. From what I can tell Josh is a fairly impulsive player, but this is just an OMGUS, however you try and justify it. Perhaps this behaviour isn't out of the remit of his meta, but I it can only be townie rage or a scummy move. Both seem to be quite daft for an experienced player, but the latter seems more likely to me.

Unvote
Vote: Josh


On the whole bandwagoning to move the game along, I think the trouble with that theory is that it gives scum more leeway to bandwagon and justify it by saying that whoever they voted for was going to get lynched anyway. By the time Thareous has 7 votes that didn't matter, but there are definitely situations where they can play this to their advantage. So again I encourage players not to do it, and I'll consider it scummy if someone does.
 

Luke's Wife

peaked in 2015
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wouldn't you like to know, weather boy
On the whole bandwagoning to move the game along, I think the trouble with that theory is that it gives scum more leeway to bandwagon and justify it by saying that whoever they voted for was going to get lynched anyway. By the time Thareous has 7 votes that didn't matter, but there are definitely situations where they can play this to their advantage. So again I encourage players not to do it, and I'll consider it scummy if someone does.

Kay, when I voted that wasn't exactly what I had on my mind...in fact, I don't even really know what I was thinking. I kinda just did it for LOLS. He was already getting lynched so I dunno...I just did because I'm (to be honest) something of an idiotic newb who (again, to be honest) isn't all that great a scumhunting yet. But hey, practice makes perfect. (:
 
Joined
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On the whole bandwagoning to move the game along, I think the trouble with that theory is that it gives scum more leeway to bandwagon and justify it by saying that whoever they voted for was going to get lynched anyway. By the time Thareous has 7 votes that didn't matter, but there are definitely situations where they can play this to their advantage. So again I encourage players not to do it, and I'll consider it scummy if someone does.
Right. I'm not saying it can't be used by scum, but that's pretty much true of all behaviors. Either way, every game of Mafia I've ever played has told me that a slow-moving, non-decisive game is far, far more pro-Mafia than a fast-moving, active game. Broadly speaking, it's better to target the players who are not contributing or are obstructing things than those who are acting, but making unusual decisions. That said, you seem to be doing that so... uh... </pointlessargument>
 

Xinnamin

Mrs. Austin
Joined
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Location
clustercereal
Vote: Majora's Cat

I'm inclined to believe MadameMajora is innocent based mostly on the timing of her vote. She jumped the bandwagon with a suspicious post at the very end of the day, when it was already obvious that Thareous was p.much dead. Any experienced mafia member would know to lay low in that situation to not attract attention, and any less-experienced mafia member would likely be told by the experienced mafia members to lay low.

Kitters, on the other hand, not only posted a suspicious vote reason, but also only made that one single post. As Axle said, inactives and lurkers are often good targets, so the fact that Kitters only made that one suspicious post is really sticking out to me.
 
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