Game Thread Pendio Mafia XI

[Ragnarokio]

Just because someone has a chat, doesn't mean it's guaranteed mafia even if the likelihood it is a mafia is there.

Someone being in a chat means they're likely to be mafia. Its possible you legitimately just don't think this way but from where I'm standing its more likely that the reason you don't think this way is because you're scum.

Unless you have proof that they are mafia, please let me know.

Because i like math and I have too much time on my hands I'll crunch the numbers for you.

In pen's first 9 games (the games that this game takes roles from) there were 48 roles which started the game with an out of game chat. Of these 48 roles 32 of them were mafia-aligned. That means if all you know about a player is that they have an out of game chat then there is a 32/48 chance of them being mafia. Simplified, this is a 2/3 or ~67% chance of them being mafia.

 

[ExLight]

erh can we not hammer him we gave like half of the Day 1 still

can we get a votecount whenever you're around pen?

 

[Fig]

Someone being in a chat means they're likely to be mafia. Its possible you legitimately just don't think this way but from where I'm standing its more likely that the reason you don't think this way is because you're scum.



Because i like math and I have too much time on my hands I'll crunch the numbers for you.

In pen's first 9 games (the games that this game takes roles from) there were 48 roles which started the game with an out of game chat. Of these 48 roles 32 of them were mafia-aligned. That means if all you know about a player is that they have an out of game chat then there is a 32/48 chance of them being mafia. Simplified, this is a 2/3 or ~67% chance of them being mafia.

You also forget to realize that I wasn't part of any of those games if I was so to assume I have all the extensive knowledge of those games is rather dismissive towards me, expecting me I should just know of all the outcomes when I signed up and only had a week to effectively read all 9 games if I could, which I didn't.

 

[Ragnarokio]

You also forget to realize that I wasn't part of any of those games if I was so to assume I have all the extensive knowledge of those games is rather dismissive towards me, expecting me I should just know of all the outcomes when I signed up and only had a week to effectively read all 9 games if I could, which I didn't.

So why aren't you voting flext right now?

 

[Fig]

So why aren't you voting flext right now?

This just proves you aren't reading my posts. I just told you, I don't have concrete evidence of where Fext aligns but based on your math if legitimate, now I'm informed that the likelihood of having a chat is likely to be mafia or at least non-town. I will consider that but now you put me in a position that should I change my vote to Fext now, you and others are going to ask why am I now just switching votes which can then be led to believe I'm backpeddling when it's more out of submission of terms at the moment.

You want my reasoning, I've been telling you this for several posts now. Unless you have a direct connection to my cerebral cortex, don't assume you know what I'm thinking in your hypotheticals.

It's highly possible that they slipped up and potentially revealed a chat existing, not every game is going to have escorts/lovers/neighbors/insert other roles with chat benefits here. How I see it, the general player wouldn't want to leak such a thing until later on in the game. Revealing a potential chat existing within the first few hours of the game is interesting at the very least.


There's always a chance. They are suffering from bad timing. I say this because they just recently joined the forums, and have now been fidgeting in their responses since the game began. From my point of view despite what they say in terms of their experience with mafia-esque games, the fact that they are being super defensive about me simply making a jab at a potential slip-up tells me they are trying to play it off as "I didn't reveal anything, you are the one making a bigger issue about all of this" to save their tail. It's why for now, they have my attention because they could have prevented saying this in the first place.

There's also the chance this can be a mafia role but there's not enough evidence for me to determine where they lean. All I said was that they have a chat and moved on. It's not my fault they want to be defensive about it to the point they then singled out both me and Killjoy for "having unfair assessments" without going into further detail except feeling like they are being targeted or looked into for what they said.


As stated in my previous post, this was during the time of RVS and at the time I decided to go with Light because they are the last person in a previous game I had a strong connection/interaction with regardless of the outcome so it was more so a "Oh I know this person. Funny RVS moment."

 

[ExLight]

You also forget to realize that I wasn't part of any of those games if I was so to assume I have all the extensive knowledge of those games is rather dismissive towards me, expecting me I should just know of all the outcomes when I signed up and only had a week to effectively read all 9 games if I could, which I didn't.

Since it's a semi-open setup I think that's public knowledge from the OP tho, Pen listed all the roles from the past games which is how rag made the math I think

 

[Fig]

Since it's a semi-open setup I think that's public knowledge from the OP tho, Pen listed all the roles from the past games which is how rag made the math I think

Fair enough, I just don't all the time like I did a decade ago to determine the math of the roles when I have work and other things in life to cater to from time to time.

 

[ExLight]

now I'm informed that the likelihood of having a chat is likely to be mafia or at least non-town.

isn't mafia having a chat the usual? :psyduck:

I know we had a couple games recently where mafia couldn't communicate but they were the exception

 

[Fig]

isn't mafia having a chat the usual? :psyduck:

I know we had a couple games recently where mafia couldn't communicate but they were the exception

It depends on how the game is structure. Honestly, I've playing too structures of mafia that I can't tell. In Town of Salem, you only have your group chat at night, though you could send whispers during day time but people might see that as suspicious. How Fext worded it implies they have access to it now during the day so that's why I said I wasn't certain because in my exposure, that could just be escorts, lovers, spies, etc., not necessarily meaning mafia. But if I then suddenly claimed that Fext must be mafia for having a chat and Fext is flipped town, that doesn't look good on me. I don't jump the button unless I know I'm going to killed off because it's too late into the day to change minds/votes against me. That's what literally happened in my previous game lol.

 

[Ragnarokio]

This just proves you aren't reading my posts. I just told you, I don't have concrete evidence of where Fext aligns but based on your math if legitimate, now I'm informed that the likelihood of having a chat is likely to be mafia or at least non-town. I will consider that but now you put me in a position that should I change my vote to Fext now, you and others are going to ask why am I now just switching votes which can then be led to believe I'm backpeddling when it's more out of submission of terms at the moment.

You want my reasoning, I've been telling you this for several posts now. Unless you have a direct connection to my cerebral cortex, don't assume you know what I'm thinking in your hypotheticals.

I feel like for anyone who believes that fext has an out of game chat room, like you apparently do, that the evidence of fext being mafia should be pretty overwhelming. Your being hesitant to vote them despite that speaks to your desire to self-preserve over your desire to kill scum. While its not uncommon for town to feel this way, especially when the votes are pilingup, I still see it as a scumtown, because scum always feel this way.

I also feel like it should be the default to assume that someone having a chatroom means they're probably mafia, regardless of whether or not you did the math yourself. I certainly didn't do that math before i came to the conclusion. Where i come from you probably have less than one neighbour/mason pair in every game. Sometimes you have one, sometimes you don't Pen has one in almost every game and he has more than one pair in several games, which is pretty over the top compared to my experiences in mafia. Even then, mafia strongly outnumbers town in terms of number of communication roles.

That you would have a different experience is strange to me. If you came from a meta where it was normal to have multiple pairs of neighbours every game i could understand, but you haven't really given me any reason that explains your perspective, only re-asserted your perspective.

 

[Pen]

can we get a votecount whenever you're around pen?

You will always get a vote count when I'm around

Day 1 Current Vote Tally:
Seanzie - 1 (ExLight)
ExLight - 2 (DekuNut, Fig)
Fext - 1 (Paranoid King)
Ragnarokio - 3 (Kirino, Seanzie, Chevywolf30)
Fig - 4 (Ragnarokio, A Link In Time, Killjoy262, Storm)
No Lynch - 1 (Fext)

Extension - 2 (Ragnarokio, ExLight)

Not voting - Morbid Minish, Viral Maze

With 14 players alive it takes 8 for a majority lynch. Otherwise the day ends on Thursday, October 7th 2021 at 6:00 PM EST.

 

[Fig]

I feel like for anyone who believes that fext has an out of game chat room, like you apparently do, that the evidence of fext being mafia should be pretty overwhelming. Your being hesitant to vote them despite that speaks to your desire to self-preserve over your desire to kill scum. While its not uncommon for town to feel this way, especially when the votes are pilingup, I still see it as a scumtown, because scum always feel this way.

I also feel like it should be the default to assume that someone having a chatroom means they're probably mafia, regardless of whether or not you did the math yourself. I certainly didn't do that math before i came to the conclusion. Where i come from you probably have less than one neighbour/mason pair in every game. Sometimes you have one, sometimes you don't Pen has one in almost every game and he has more than one pair in several games, which is pretty over the top compared to my experiences in mafia. Even then, mafia strongly outnumbers town in terms of number of communication roles.

That you would have a different experience is strange to me. If you came from a meta where it was normal to have multiple pairs of neighbours every game i could understand, but you haven't really given me any reason that explains your perspective, only re-asserted your perspective.

Considering I was one out of two people to even think/mention the chat that Fext was referring about while no one else did led me to believe that as I sometimes tend to do, was overthinking it and perhaps people didn't see that as a big deal. Again, you are putting words into my mouth as if you are capable to know what goes in my mind. I wasn't hesitate, I just didn't have any concrete reasoning to believe that Fext could be mafia until literally just now with the mathematical statistics provided now. Again, you like to believe everything is black and white. You said it's not uncommon for town to feel the way I am as you are portraying me out to be, you don't even give that me chance because you then say that "scum always feel this way."

 

[Ragnarokio]

Again, you are putting words into my mouth as if you are capable to know what goes in my mind.

This is true and is one of the emotionally difficult parts of mafia for me. Unfortunately Mafia is a game where people lie about their thought processes and feelings, and so it often involves telling people you think they're lying about their feelings and being wrong about it. Its never a pleasant thing, but its part of the game.

I acknowledge that i'm not capable of knowing what you're thinking, I'm only capable of guessing at what you're thinking, and I'm going to use those guesses to try and find scum.

. I wasn't hesitate, I just didn't have any concrete reasoning to believe that Fext could be mafia until literally just now with the mathematical statistics provided now.

You say you're not hesitating but you still haven't voting for fext despite saying you now have concrete reasons to believe that fext could be mafia. That seems like hesitating to me.

Again, you like to believe everything is black and white. You said it's not uncommon for town to feel the way I am as you are portraying me out to be, you don't even give that me chance because you then say that "scum always feel this way."

I'd estimate your odds at being scum at something like 40% Hows that for black and white? Everything in this game is shades of gray. I think the case on you is unusually strong for a day 1 case but the fact of the matter is still that understanding how humans think is an incredibly difficult and unreliable thing to do and that at most 1/3 of the game is going to be mafia right now, and so the odds are against me while i'm scumhunting. Its entirely possible for your perspective to exist as town. I'm just wagering that its proportionally more likely to come from mafia.

 

[Morbid Minish]

Personally for me it's the fact that Fig specifically said it was a slip up. To me, slip ups only indicated scum slips. Like "gotcha" moments. If he's town, why would saying he has an outside chat be a slip up? That would be an obvious part of his role, so something he is willingly indicating to the rest of town. Fig seemed to act like he had caught Fext on something, which isn't the case if he's town. So it doesn't matter if there are possible roles with OC that are town in the game. It was the specific way Fig went about it that indicated that he thought Fext had a scum chat.

 

[Fig]

You say you're not hesitating but you still haven't voting for fext despite saying you now have concrete reasons to believe that fext could be mafia. That seems like hesitating to me.

I'd estimate your odds at being scum at something like 40% Hows that for black and white? Everything in this game is shades of gray. I think the case on you is unusually strong for a day 1 case but the fact of the matter is still that understanding how humans think is an incredibly difficult and unreliable thing to do and that at most 1/3 of the game is going to be mafia right now, and so the odds are against me while i'm scumhunting. Its entirely possible for your perspective to exist as town. I'm just wagering that its proportionally more likely to come from mafia.

Please read my posts, I'm literally giving you the exact reasoning coming from my mind. I don't see why you want to continue this conversation when I'm giving you exactly what you want. If you don't want to read my posts, go ahead, but at this point it seems you just want to start gaslighting me and at that point, I rather stop this conversation immediately.

I have told you here, here, here, here, here, and here of where my thought process was upon my vote and why I haven't changed it. Because again now I'm thinking that if I do make that change in votes, you and others are going to jump in say that because I'm changing votes, I'll be seen as the one actually fidgeting around and backpedaling even if it's just to make your own hypothetical plausible. I can only do so much but if you don't want to accept my own input to fit in any holes that you have of your own interpretation of a hypothetical me but it's up to you if you even want to consider that just maybe there is indeed a possibility I'm a town that acts like this. At the same time, you can just be dismissive towards me and say "nah I still don't believe you" and we are back again at the starting point of this circle.