I’m not too suspicious of Chevy for withdrawing his Johnny suspicion, since it strikes me as a genuine expression of insecurity or a lack of self-confidence given that he’s still relatively new to Mafia, and I think it fits with his previous play. I agree it’s a bit odd that he described it as a “joke,” though, because it clearly doesn’t seem to be. His later comment that he “came in too hot” seems more truthful.
As for his suspicion of Mikey, while I think he’s tunneling, I get being paranoid given JoJo Mafia and the sheer presence he tends to have in most games.
I mean I do it so often that it basically is at this point
Nah. There’s no harm in stating suspicions or jumping on details early on, even seemingly minor or irrelevant ones, because that’s how discussion gets started and the game gets moving. It can make you a target, though.
Not too sus of Chevy thinks he lacks self confidence cause new, but thinks the joke thing was odd.
Thinks Chevy is tunneling Mikey, but also gets being paranoid of Mikey.
Outcome = Town lean Chevy, Null/Unsure Mikey.
It did seem odd that Tristan essentially meta-read Moe while pretending not to do so, although I can easily buy that it was just a bit. It’s also not completely irrational for Chevy to suggest a Moe-Tristan scum team based on that, given that it was a town read; it’s not an opinion I share, but I can at least see where he’s coming from.
Chevy as a whole is definitely playing more boldly and erratically than usual, given how casually he’s been throwing out reads and suggestions. But I generally wouldn’t expect new scum to be so reckless and place so much unnecessary attention on themselves. If anything, I’d at least have expected him to be more cautious after receiving suspicion, especially since most scum would likely coach him to do just that. Instead of backing down, though, he’s maintained pretty much the same play. Some of his thoughts are dubious or questionable, but that’s not too unexpected given his level and how early it is, and I’ve felt similarly about some of his takes in previous games. It’d be different if his reads seemed forced or artificial to me, but I can usually at least see what he’s getting at. I’m also a fan of his interaction with Rag, since he seemed to genuinely question his approach but then appeared to take Rag’s words (which assumed he was town) to heart. Overall, he strikes me more as insecure town experimenting, rather than scum.
I agree with this to an extent, but I think general advice like “hey you should probably chill out a bit” would be very easy to give, and could reasonably be expected in a situation like this. I view Chevy as the kind of person who would be receptive to advice, too.
Odd Tristan meta read Mikey while pretending not to, though thinks it could be a joke. Doubles down on seeing where Chevy is coming from even if he doesn't agree. Goes into more thought about Chevy being town.
Outcome = Shade on Tristan, Town lean Chevy.
It's obvious that Ex voting Libk is largely in order to protect himself, but that's not necessarily a bad thing, since it makes sense for him to do so as town too. In general, Ex has been playing in a way that strikes me as fairly calm and reasoned, which I've come to associate with his scum meta, so I can't help but be slightly wary of him. I still think Libk is the better wagon because I'd rather lynch the complete inactive over the second highest poster, although I'm still holding out for other potential options until EoD.
I'm also liking SMS's play so far. I've always felt that his takes seem low-effort or contrived as scum, but his reads are fairly original and sensible here. He's somewhat less active than I might expect from many of his previous town games, but the past few games with him have taught me that meta reads based on activity are a lot less reliable in reading him than I previously thought they were.
Tristan's contributions so far have seemed mostly unremarkable to me. It's admittedly been a while since I played much with him, but I remember him having a game or two as town where he was very proactive and gave very in-depth, unprompted analyses of various players and game mechanics, to the point that I almost instantly (and correctly) town read him. I'm not seeing much of that here, which makes me slightly suspicious, although I can't say I remember his scum play.
Other people I'd like to get better reads on are Minish and Johnny, but I'm so far struggling to evaluate them with the content they have. I'd also like to see more (or anything) from @Pendio.
Says Ex voting Libk to self pres isn't bad, but says he's wary of Ex for playing more to his scum meta. Thinks Libk is better vote though. Says Tristan is unremarkable, not seeing his town game but can't remember much of his scum play. Mentions wanting better reads on me and Johnny, and more posts from Pen.
Outcome = Null/slight scum lean on Ex. Scum lean on Tristan. Null on Me/Johnny.
lol
I remember a previous game in which Pen basically did the exact same thing as here (barely posted D1 and flippantly shrugged it off) and ended up being town. So I’m slightly town reading him for this I guess, even if I’m not really a fan of it.
Reads Pen's inactivity and flippant attitude as town.
Outcome = Slight town read on Pen.
I agree that Rag’s contributions have been fairly lackluster. Her latest post seems to provide a believable townie explanation for them, but I could also see the way she lost interest as reflecting scum. She’s also offering information that seems to work against her (basically confirming the validity of the meta that people are using to scum read her), but I feel that’s typical of her, and in any case, could easily be used to make oneself look more town. I haven’t played with Rag as much as others here, though, and I have a somewhat difficult time reading her. IIRC, my first game with her was the one in which she completely reversed her meta and surprised everyone, which probably colors my perception.
Regarding who to lynch, I actually wouldn’t mind following Chevy’s suggestion and voting Tristan, for previously stated reasons. Libk is still the main wagon I believe, and I think he’s still a viable option. I could see Rag as well, although I’m leaning towards the other two at the moment. In any case, I probably won’t be deciding or doing much until later today, after I get off work.
Feels Rag's contributions have been lackluster. Thinks she provided a townie explanation for her latest posts, but could also see her losing interest as scum. Thinks she could be offering her own scum meta to look more town, but unsure on reading Rag. Wouldn't mind voting Tristan for reasons Chevy state, thinks Libk is viable, also thinks Rag could be an option but leaning more towards Tristan and Libk.
Outcome = Scum lean Rag/Libk/Tristan. Town lean Chevy still.
I don't think long read lists are always necessarily indicative of town, but they do make me feel better about Tristan, and I think his reads are pretty reasonable. I'd rather not lynch him at this point, especially with players who have contributed far less.
@Mafia Host @funnier6 Vote count?
Feels good about Tristan's reads list and would rather lynch someone who has contributed less.
Outcome = Slight town read on Tristan.
I'm not particularly suspicious of either Libk or Rag right now, but I'd probably rather go for Libk because he's been almost completely inactive and has shown little inclination to fix that. While I see the point that he's an easy mislynch, he's being targeted more for inactivity rather than his actions, and his wagon hasn't been that widely supported. This vote will lead to a tie, but I'm fine with that, given that the rules mean my vote just won't count if it ends up that way.
Vote: Libk
Not particularly sus of Libk or Rag, rather vote Libk for inactivity. Sees point about Libk being an easy mislynch but says he's not being targeted for his actions and his wagon isn't widely supported (despite saying he was the main wagon earlier). Acknowledges his vote will lead to a tie and is pointless if it ends up that way. Votes Libk.
Outcome = Null on Libk/Rag. Votes Libk for inactivity.
It's not something I especially like either. I would generally assume that scum would avoid instantly jumping on the end of a bandwagon that already seemed sure to win out, and I'm not really sure why he would as scum. At the same time, I'm uncomfortable giving such blatantly anti-town behavior a pass just because of that, even if I'm still town reading him overall.
I'm increasingly skeptical of Rag being scum given how quickly her wagon took off near the end, but I think her flip (assuming she gets lynched) will at least give decent info.
Not sure why scum Chevy would jump on a sure wagon last minute. Doesn't want to give anti-town behavior a pass but still town reading him. More skeptical of scum Rag given quickness of wagon, but thinks flip will give info.
Outcome = Town read on Chevy with shade on him. Null? on Rag.
There was a near tie between Rag and Libk, then the Rag wagon quickly came out ahead. Chevy instantly sheeped SMS and voted Rag with no real reasoning, and now people are suspecting him and might lynch him.
Recap on day, but acknowledges again that Libk was viable. Shades Chevy again.
I don’t think Chevy is scum, and if he is, he’s an incredibly reckless and incompetent one, although I get the urge to policy lynch him after that. Libk has surprisingly come in clutch with his reads list, and even if I wanted to still vote for him, it’s clearly not happening. I think Rag is a bit questionable too, but I think she has the best chance of being scum between the three.
Unvote
Vote: Rag
I’m somewhat uncertain about this, so I could see myself changing before the day ends. I’m not going to be able to be consistently around, though, so I should place my vote now.
Doesn't think Chevy is scum, says he's reckless and incompetent if so. Gets the urge to policy lynch him after his vote. Likes Libk's reads list but even if he wanted to vote him, his wagon isn't viable. Thinks Rag is questionable and has best chance of being scum out of her/Libk/Chevy.
Outcome = Town Chevy (shade with policy lynch?), Null on Libk, Scum read on Rag.
Yep.
Pretty heavily town reading Rubik right now.
Outcome = Town read on Rubik.
I do think it's probable that there was scum on Rag's wagon, both because of how easily it piled up and given her experience. I also think that Chevy was a safe wagon for scum to move onto after he voted for Rag (even if I understand why people wanted to lynch him), and that it's worth scrutinizing the people who jumped to him as well.
Concerning Rag's wagon, I counted 7 different people on it: Rubik, Pen, Minish, mikey, SMS, Chevy, and myself. Of those, the last three are confirmed town (to me, anyway), the first I'm strongly town reading, and the second I'm slightly town reading. That leaves Minish and Mikey as the ones I'd like to focus on today, although I'm not quite letting Pendio off the hook.
Concerning those who switched to Chevy, they consist of Mikey, Johnny, and Libk. I'd like to look at both of the latter today, too.
Mikey falls under both categories. I'm having a hard time reading him as usual, but his consistency in pursuing Chevy makes his vote there unsurprising, and aggressively jumping on such an anti-town move seems fairly typical of him, so I'm not too bothered by it. His vote on Rag, by contrast, was sudden and unexplained until today, although that's admittedly not unusual for him either. In any case, I'll have to ISO him to get a better read.
I quite like how much Tristan is contributing and analyzing now, as it reminds me of the play that caused me to town read him in previous games. He only started doing it near the end of D1 and after being prodded on it, though, so I'm hesitant to give him too much town cred.
By contrast, I really dislike how
@Mido fell completely under the radar. His first three posts were all on the same day and fairly decent, and his fourth (and last) post the next day said nothing substantive. His initial posts were just enough to make it look as if he was contributing to the point that most people largely ignored him, in contrast to other inactives such as Libk and Pendio, so I think he warrants more scrutiny today.
I'm also expecting @Pendio to actually contribute. There's likely a vig given Chevy's death, so depending on whether they pick things up, either him or Mido might make good targets.
This post is mostly just me throwing out my initial reads, since my thoughts on other players will require me to look more in-depth and ISO.
Thinks it's probable there's scum on Rag (due to how quickly wagon built and her experience) and Chevy (safe for scum to jump to after he voted Rag). Looks at Rag wagon says he's heavily town reading Rubik and slightly town reading Pen, and that he, Chevy, SMS are confirmed to him. Leaves me and Mikey to look at but not letting Pen off the hook. Lists Mikey, Johnny, and Libk as switching to Chevy, wants to look into the later as well. Says Mikey falls into both categories, has trouble reading him but he was consistent with his Chevy vote. Says his Rag vote was sudden and unexplained but that's not unusual for him, says he'll ISO him. Likes Tristan's contributions, but only did it eod after prodded so hesitant to give him too much town cred. Dislikes Mido falling off the radar, thought first posts were decent but last post said nothing substantive. Says his initial posts were enough to make it look like he was contributing so people ignored him in contrast to Libk and Pen, so thinks he warrants more scrutiny. Wants Pen to post. Thinks Chevy was vig'd. Suggests Mido or Pen as vig targets. Says he'll ISO players to provide more in depth thoughts.
Outcome = Town read on Rubik. Weird read on Pen (slight town read/wants to look into/suggests as vig target). Null? on Tristan. Null? on Mikey. Maybe scum read on Mido?
I’m don’t particularly like Libk’s vote on Chevy, looking back. Initially, he actually town read Chevy around the same time as his Rag vote, saying he liked the way he was playing. Once he saw Chevy’s vote, however, he updated his post to reverse this and instead voted for him. I think it had the least basis of the Chevy votes last EoD, as the other two had at least suspected/pressured him, whereas Libk reversed his read based on what I thought was a weak justification. At the start of today, moreover, Libk said he was “not too surprised” at Chevy flipping town, which makes his vote look even more dubious. The whole situation ends up seeming somewhat lazy and contrived on his part.
Otherwise, his suspicions against me and Johnny were largely based on OMGUS, which, to be fair, was also the case with his suspicion of Moe last game, where he was town. He also voiced slight suspicions on Mido and Pendio for inactivity, somewhat ironically.
I don’t think he did, and neither did most people. Besides, there’s no reason for scum to have killed Chevy when he was so likely to have been lynched the following day, not to mention his inexperience. This is an odd take, really.
It was essentially meta-based: I’ve seen a game where Pen did the exact same thing (i.e. completely ignore Day 1 and nonchalantly and unapologetically acknowledge it when pressed), and I think he’s more excited and active as scum in general. The read was always weak, though, and as I said, I think he’s still worth looking into for his Rag vote.
I think some interpreted it favorably for Rag because it showed her prodding, but my view was kind of the opposite: that it was negligible and didn’t really lead anywhere. As for Chevy, it made me town read him more, because he seemed genuinely uncertain and then reassured after what Rag told him.
Not quite. I said I could see why others would want to PL him, but not that I myself would want to, as I was pretty adamant in my belief that he was town. If I was trying to opportunistically lynch Rag, moreover, I probably would’ve done so earlier instead of going for Libk. And the only reason I removed my vote on Libk was because he started contributing with his read list, which took away the reason for my vote. That’s not something I could have planned either, unless Libk and I were scum together. Basically, my actions aren’t indicative of someone looking for an excuse to lynch Rag, which seems to be what you’re saying.
Doesn't like Libk's vote on Chevy. Says Libk town read Chevy when he voted Rag, but after Chevy's vote he flipped his reads. Thinks Libk's vote had least justification because the other two at least suspected Chevy and Libk reversed his read for weak justification. Also says Libk wasn't surprised Chevy flipped town which makes his vote look even more dubious. Says Libk's sus of him and Johnny was based on OMGUS (in line with his sus on Mikey last game), and that he also ironically shaded Pen and Mido for inactivity. Didn't think SMS was scum (don't recall him talking about SMS before), thinks Ex suggesting SMS was vig shot is an odd take. Reiterates his town read on Pen but says it was always weak and he deserves more scrutiny for his Rag vote. Viewed Rag's questioning as opposite of others seeing it as favorable. Said it was negligible and led nowhere. Made him town read Chevy more though. Said he said he could see why others would want to policy lynch Chevy, not that he wanted to (though actual wording was ambiguous and could go either way) and was pretty adamant he was town. Would have gone after Rag earlier instead of Libk if he was trying to opportunistically lynch her. Only reason he moved off Libk was because of reads list which was reason for his vote.
Outcome = Scum lean Libk? Null on Pen.
I don’t think I agree that scum would necessarily be more likely to avoid jumping on either wagon. Most of the playerbase was on one, so no individual would’ve received too much scrutiny simply for being among them. If anything, not being on them might made one more conspicuous. It’s certainly possible that at least one scum did, but I don’t know if that’s primarily what I’d focus on. Besides, I’m not sure why scum Ex would admit that he would’ve voted for Chevy the next day; as an after-the-fact excuse for inaction, probably. But then why not just vote Chevy the previous day, so as to make excuses unnecessary?
I do think it’s odd that Ex didn’t vote for Chevy, and if he really thought Chevy was the better wagon, he should’ve done so regardless of whether he thought it would catch up to Rag. But I feel inclined to accept his version of events simply because his actions seem dubious as scum. Besides which, the way Ex has been getting emotional/panicking in response to Min’s accusations reminds me moreso of his town play.
As for Tristan’s suspicion that Ex is sheeping him, I think I remember Ex voicing some of his reads, at least, before Tristan did, but I’d have to go back and check.
He’s not the only one, lol. For the record, this is why I think it’s possible that you and Tristan could still be scum together, despite going at each other. Not that I think it’s the case, but I wouldn’t dismiss it as Moe has.
Doesn't think scum would avoid jumping on either wagon since most people were on one of the two. Says not being on them might make one more conspicuous. Possible one scum did but don't know if that's his focus. Not sure why scum Ex would admit he would've voted Chevy after the fact. Think it's odd Ex didn't vote for Chevy if he thought he was a better wagon. Feels inclined to accept his version of events because they seem dubious as scum. Ex's reactions to my accusations looks like his town play. Thinks Ex voiced his reads before Tristan did, after Tristan accused Ex of sheeping. Thinks me and Tristan could be scum together despite going after each other.
Outcome = Slight shade on Ex, but overall town read on him. Suggests possible Minish/Tristan scum team.
I don't see much of a reason to doubt Tristan's alignment claim, especially since Johnny apparently corroborated it. I suppose they could both be scum, but it'd be a really questionable play for them, to say the least. As for Tristan, I'm not convinced he isn't a killing role, and he obviously wouldn't tell us if he was. I think there's likely to be a vig (or some town-aligned killing role, at least), but it's not necessarily a certainty. Whether we kill Tristan or try to find scum today depends largely on 1. our estimation of which roles there are and who they'll target and 2. how confident we are in our ability to get scum today.
If I'm understanding Legacy's post correctly, there's no real chance of us losing today if we lynch Tristan. There is a chance of us losing, however, if we leave Tristan alive, although it would require mislynching and the vig failing to hit scum, too. So it seems like the safer choice is simply to lynch Tristan today: not only would it remove the uncertainty of his role, but it would give us more time to potentially find scum the following day, with the vig possibly hitting one in the night as well.
I'd rather not place a vote now because we still have time, and I want to think through this and avoid pushing a wagon beforehand. But it seems to me like our best option is simply killing Tristan now, especially with the absence of strong scum reads from most people, including me.
Doesn't doubt Tristan's 3rd party claim especially since Johnny corroborated it. Supposes they could both be scum but thinks it'd be a questionable scum play. Not convinced Tristan isn't a killing role. Think there's likely to be vig but not necessarily certain. Thinks whether we kill Tristan that day depends on role speculation and confidence to lynch scum. Believes there's no real chance of losing that day from Legacy's post if we lynch Tristan, so thinks he's safer choice. Would remove uncertainty of role and give us more time to find scum following day/vig hit one in night. Rather not vote because still have time and want to think through but think Tristan seems best option.
Outcome = Tristan 3rd party (tinfoil Johnny/Tristan scum team). Wants to lynch Tristan.
I don't necessarily hate a Libk lynch, but I'd rather not risk throwing the game today, especially with wagons shallow enough that scum can manipulate the result. If we lynch Tristan, then not only will we have the whole day tomorrow to discuss and find scum, but we can more comfortably allow a vig to try to hit scum tonight.
Vote: Tristan
Doesn't hate Libk lynch, but doesn't want to throw game with shallow wagons scum can manipulate. Have whole day + vig if we lynch Tristan.
Outcome = Scum lean on Libk. Vote on Tristan.
I think there's definitely some sort of role capable of sending messages, given that Rubik received one, and I'm highly confident that he's town. It's also likely to be a scum role (or at least is being used that way), given that the message turned out to be false and likely intended to frame Sun; it's also possible that Sun could either have a miller-like aspect to him or that he was framed, but I think these are both less likely. For this reason, I think it's also very likely that Sun wasn't the mafia kill, as scum would have no reason to frame someone and then kill them.
If I'm understanding Legacy correctly (and I'll be careful here to avoid upsetting the mod), then him being town necessarily means there's some sabotaging role, unless he's somehow completely mistaken. It's interesting, though, that Legacy is confident that Tristan is third party and doesn't want to lynch him, which must mean he's sure that the message Johnny claimed to receive is true, unlike the one received by Rubik about Sun being scum. So if Legacy is town, then Tristan would almost certainly be third party. If Legacy is scum, of course, then that almost certainly means that Tristan is scum, and vice versa.
I'll post more and likely come up with a PoE soon, but I at wanted to get some basic thoughts down now that I'm finally free after like 10 pages of absence.
I don’t think I waited until the last minute, since I specifically stated my preference for lynching Tristan hours before EoD. Even when I made my vote, I did so over 15 minutes before EoD, which was still plenty of time for someone to weigh in if they were around; it’s hardly as if I was trying to sneak it in.
Besides that, I’m not sure why I’d necessarily prefer lynching third party over town here if I were scum, given that doing the latter is what put us in MYLO. This is especially because you yourself, immediately after suggesting that, give at least one reason that I wouldn’t want to. Instead of recognizing that this runs counter to your reasoning, you try to reconcile them by saying that I probably still would’ve wanted to lynch Tristan, but probably just not too badly, which is really dubious speculation. You also suggest that I didn’t push too strongly to avoid suspicion, but a third party is a fairly safe wagon to push, so I don’t think I’d have much of a reason to worry about that. Moreover, the point that scum would want to kill third party should apply to all who voted for Tristan, not just me.
I also can’t help but find it notable that you’ve largely avoided giving a clear read on me this game. That is, until MYLO, when you suddenly find me suspicious based on something highly speculative. Likewise with Legacy deciding to scum read me soon after. I’m sure I’ll be accused of OMGUS, but I think it’s easy to understand why I might view with suspicion a sudden bandwagon potentially forming on me during MYLO. I'm not sure that both of you are scum, but I'm confident that at least one of you are, based both on this and PoE. Further case in point:
It's not even 1/3 of the day through and you (and Legacy, who liked your post) are already trying to rush a lynch on me. Nothing either of you have posted could possible give you the unreasonable confidence you have in me being scum.
Thinks there's definitely message role because of Rubik getting one and highly town reading Rubik. Thinks could be scum role or is being used that way. Message used to frame Sunfan, thinks Sunfan being miller or framed is less likely to be true than fake message. Thinks very likely Sunfan wasn't scum kill because of this. Interesting Legacy thinks there's a sabotager. Says if Legacy is town Tristan is 3rd party, if Legacy scum Tristan is too and vice versa. Says he'll come up with POE soon. Counters me by saying he stated preference for lynching Tristan hours before eod and voted him with enough time left for discussion. Not sure why he'd prefer lynching 3rd party if scum there. Says I've avoided giving clear read on him until Mylo when suddenly I find him suspicious based on speculation. Same with Legacy. Confident with me or Legacy being scum.
Outcome = Town read on Rubik. Scum read on Me and/or Legacy. Scum or 3rd party read on Tristan.
The remaining players are Rubik, Tristan, Ex, Johnny, Minish, Kirino, Legend, Mikey. IIRC, you're vouching for Tristan, Rubik, and Johnny. Plus you and myself, that'd leave three: Ex, Minish, and Mikey. Unless I'm missing something, since I admittedly skimmed some of your posts, just because there's so many of them. I figure that's a possible team from my PoE as well, assuming you're town, even if I'm increasingly doubting that.
Says Legacy is vouching for Tristan, Rubik, and Johnny. Removes him and Legacy (upon Legacy asking poe if both of them are town) which leaves him with me, Ex, Mikey POE. Increasingly doubting Legacy is town.
Outcome = Scumread on Me, Mikey, Ex. Slight scum lean/Null on Legacy.
